Technicals | Sep 04 2024
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
Following the Nasdaq100’s close below 19,400 on Thursday last week, we moved to a tactical short bias in the Nasdaq100.
The basis for the short recommendation was based on the idea that the correction in the Nasdaq100 from the 20,690 high to the August 17453 low is missing a leg lower towards the 18,000/17,700 support area coming from the 200-day moving average and uptrend support from the December 10,671 low.
There is a possibility of downside overshoot towards support at 17,000 – a wave equality target. We will remain with the tactical short view unless the Nasdaq100 sees a sustained break above last week’s swing high of 19,938.
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Australia: ASX200
After the overnight sell-off on Wall Street, we are open to the idea that the ASX200 has put in place its high for the month (8116) in the first week of trading, just like it did in August (8148).
We are also open to the idea that the ASX200 has carved out a double top of sorts at 8148 and 8116.
In this case, the question becomes how deep the pullback develops. Initial support is viewed at 7850. However, the more likely downside objectives would be the 7675 area, which picks up the 200-day moving average and trend channel support.
WTI Crude & Gold
WTI Crude Oil finished lower overnight at US$70.34/bbl (-4.36%), its lowest level in nine months, weighed on by a likely return of Libyan supply, weak Chinese and US manufacturing PMI’s and a break of technical support at US$71.40.
Two Fridays ago, we moved to a tactical positive bias in crude oil at US$73.00, after which it reached our initial target of US$77.50. However, following the break of support at US$71.40/bbl overnight we have returned to a neutral bias.
Gold finished lower overnight at US$2492/oz (-0.26%), continuing to consolidate just below its US$2531 record high ahead of Friday night’s all-important non-farm payrolls.
Provided gold remains above support at US$2470ish, it can extend gains towards US$2600 in the sessions ahead.
Aware that a sustained break of support at US$2470 would warn of a deeper pullback towards US$2400/oz.
Technical limitations
If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.
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