Weekly Reports | Nov 22 2024
This story features NUIX LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXL
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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NUIX LIMITED ((NXL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Petra Capital.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Nuix has reiterated its guidance for annual contract value (ACV) growth of 15% and revenue exceeding costs for FY24, with a stronger second-half weighting due to renewal cycles in June and December, notes Petra Capital.
Management anticipates these renewals will incorporate value-based pricing models and productivity-focused solutions like NEO, supporting long-term revenue growth.
While no changes have been made to forecasts, the broker highlights Nuix’s ability to secure better pricing terms through value-based selling, incentivised by newly introduced KPIs.
Petra Capital upgrades the rating to Buy from Hold and raises the target price to $6.91 from $6.73.
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ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED ((ALL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden highlights Aristocrat Leisure reported strong FY24 results with NPATA reaching $1.6bn, up 17%, supported by a 12% increase in segment profits and 5% revenue growth.
Gaming operations saw record installations, with margins expanding due to strong product performance. Pixel United delivered 12% profit growth despite flat bookings, benefiting from cost controls. The sale of Plarium and the strategic review of Big Fish reflect the company’s focus on higher-margin businesses.
Jarden revised EPS forecasts slightly upwards for FY25-FY27, with the target price raised to $61.00 from $59.00.
The broker remains positive on the company’s market position, but downgrades the rating to Neutral from Overweight, due to valuation concerns after recent share price outperformance.
ALS LIMITED ((ALQ)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
ALS Ltd’s 1H25 core profit of $152m came in slightly ahead of consensus at $150m, driven by stable performance in Life Sciences and resilience in Commodities margins despite volatile geochemistry sampling flows, notes Jarden.
Commodities division EBIT margins remained robust at 31%, driven by larger miners contributing 70-75% of testing flows, though the broker observes sampling flow growth declined by -0.5% year-on-year.
Life Sciences achieved growth through organic expansion and contributions from recent M&A (including Nuvisan), highlights the analyst.
Jarden downgrades ALS Ltd to Neutral from Overweight, citing limited near-term earnings catalysts, and increases the target price to $14.40 from $14.25.
HEALIUS LIMITED ((HLS)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
The Healius AGM revealed a downgrade in the outlook for the Pathology division, with no details provided on the margin deterioration, notes Jarden.
The recent sale of Lumus Imaging, expected to complete in early 2H25, leaves management focusing on remaining operations. Stranded costs from the sale and potential funding cuts pose challenges to the earnings outlook, suggest Jarden.
Management intends to return proceeds from the Lumus sale to shareholders via a special dividend, unlocking $160m in franking credits.
The broker downgrades FY25-27 EPS forecasts by -88.7%, -47.9%, and -42.7%, respectively, and lowers the target price to $1.25 from $1.67. The rating is downgraded to Underweight from Neutral.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | NUIX LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Petra Capital | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 2 | ALS LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 3 | ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 4 | HEALIUS LIMITED | Sell | Neutral | Jarden | |
Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL | Aristocrat Leisure | $67.61 | Jarden | 61.00 | 59.00 | 3.39% |
| ALQ | ALS Ltd | $15.66 | Jarden | 14.40 | 14.25 | 1.05% |
| APZ | Aspen Group | $2.50 | Moelis | 2.73 | 2.53 | 7.91% |
| ATA | Atturra | $1.09 | Moelis | 1.31 | 1.28 | 2.34% |
| CAT | Catapult International | $3.50 | Canaccord Genuity | 3.50 | 1.70 | 105.88% |
| CBA | CommBank | $156.24 | Jarden | 108.00 | 107.00 | 0.93% |
| CMM | Capricorn Metals | $6.54 | Canaccord Genuity | 8.30 | 7.60 | 9.21% |
| Jarden | 6.93 | 7.03 | -1.42% | |||
| Jarden | 6.96 | 7.03 | -1.00% | |||
| CPU | Computershare | $30.86 | Goldman Sachs | 31.00 | 30.00 | 3.33% |
| DEG | De Grey Mining | $1.52 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.90 | 2.85 | 1.75% |
| ELD | Elders | $7.50 | Wilsons | 8.38 | 8.07 | 3.84% |
| EVS | EnviroSuite | $0.06 | Moelis | 0.07 | 0.06 | 16.67% |
| FLT | Flight Centre Travel | $16.98 | Jarden | 23.10 | 23.70 | -2.53% |
| HLS | Healius | $1.32 | Jarden | 1.25 | 1.67 | -25.15% |
| IFL | Insignia Financial | $3.15 | Jarden | 3.35 | 3.25 | 3.08% |
| IPH | IPH | $5.14 | Petra Capital | 8.00 | 8.25 | -3.03% |
| JHX | James Hardie Industries | $53.48 | Jarden | 54.00 | 52.00 | 3.85% |
| LNW | Light & Wonder | $141.86 | Goldman Sachs | 171.90 | 172.20 | -0.17% |
| Jarden | 173.00 | 174.00 | -0.57% | |||
| NHF | nib Holdings | $5.57 | Goldman Sachs | 6.50 | 6.75 | -3.70% |
| NXL | Nuix | $6.14 | Petra Capital | 6.91 | 6.73 | 2.67% |
| PDN | Paladin Energy | $7.74 | Canaccord Genuity | 15.20 | 16.30 | -6.75% |
| PEN | Peninsula Energy | $0.06 | Canaccord Genuity | 0.16 | 0.20 | -20.00% |
| PLT | Plenti Group | $0.70 | Wilsons | 1.50 | 1.30 | 15.38% |
| RDY | ReadyTech Holdings | $2.98 | Wilsons | 3.70 | 3.74 | -1.07% |
| RIC | Ridley Corp | $2.72 | Wilsons | 2.94 | 2.54 | 15.75% |
| S32 | South32 | $3.73 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.35 | 2.25 | 4.44% |
| SHA | Shape Australia | $2.88 | Moelis | 3.24 | 2.95 | 9.83% |
| SHL | Sonic Healthcare | $27.65 | Jarden | 28.06 | 25.88 | 8.42% |
| SLC | Superloop | $2.02 | Canaccord Genuity | 2.27 | 2.07 | 9.66% |
| SMI | Santana Minerals | $0.59 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.22 | 1.16 | 5.17% |
| SPZ | Smart Parking | $0.95 | Canaccord Genuity | 1.10 | 0.75 | 46.67% |
| STO | Santos | $6.80 | Jarden | 7.85 | 7.90 | -0.63% |
| WGX | Westgold Resources | $2.81 | Canaccord Genuity | 4.50 | 4.40 | 2.27% |
| XRO | Xero | $173.43 | Jarden | 177.00 | 151.00 | 17.22% |
| Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Old Target | Change | |
More Highlights
APZ ASPEN GROUP LIMITED
Real Estate Overnight Price: $2.43
Moelis rates ((APZ)) as Buy (1)
In mid-October, Aspen Group reported Q1 FY25 underlying EPS of 4.4c, up 20% year-on-year and well above the run-rate needed to achieve prior FY25 guidance of 15.2c, notes Moelis.
Management has now upgraded FY25 guidance for underlying EPS to 16.0c and announced plans to double its production of houses and land sites to 200 in FY25, compared to 97 settlements in FY24, highlights the broker.
Aspen divested -50% of its stake in Eureka Group ((EGH)), reducing its gearing to below 22% from 25.7%, and signalling a shift toward development income, which Moelis views as incrementally positive for long-term value creation.
Moelis raises its target price to $2.73 from $2.53 and retains a Buy rating.
This report was published on November 18, 2024.
Target price is $2.73 Current Price is $2.43 Difference: $0.3
If APZ meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 9.70 cents and EPS of 16.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.99%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.19.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 16.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.20%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.64.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ATA ATTURRA LIMITED
Software & Services Overnight Price: $1.09
Moelis rates ((ATA)) as Buy (1)
Atturra recently hosted its first investor day, announcing three potential acquisitions and a capital raise to support its inorganic growth strategy, Moelis highlights.
The broker states these acquisitions could add over 1,000 clients, expand the company’s presence in A&NZ, enhance revenue quality, and be immediately accretive to EPS in FY25.
The acquisitions, valued at approximately $45m, will be funded by a $70.5m placement and a $6.1m share purchase plan. Management pointed to expected FY25 benefits including $22m-$30m in revenue and $3.0m-$3.5m EBITDA.
Buy rated with a target price of $1.31 with possible re-rating potential from successful integration of the acquisitions, the broker suggests.
This report was published on November 14, 2024.
Target price is $1.31 Current Price is $1.09 Difference: $0.215
If ATA meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 20.28.
Forecast for FY26:
Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.80 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.10.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DUG DUG TECHNOLOGY LIMITED
Cloud services Overnight Price: $1.60
Canaccord Genuity rates ((DUG)) as Buy (1)
DUG Technology delivered FY24 revenue growth of 29% year-on-year and anticipates further growth of 11% in FY25, supported by a record sales pipeline, notes Canaccord Genuity.
The company’s Elastic MP-FWI technology has gained validation from leading players like Chevron and Shell, positioning it as a key tool for seismic reservoir management, suggests the analyst.
While quarterly performance has been volatile, management aims to achieve $8m for earnings EBITDA per quarter in 2H25 with a margin near 36%, highlights the broker, driven by pipeline conversion and increased demand for Elastic MP-FWI.
Canaccord retains a Buy rating and a $3.20 target price, viewing the recent share price sell-off as overdone.
This report was published on November 20, 2024.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $1.60 Difference: $1.595
If DUG meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 99% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 160.50.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 4.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 40.13.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
IPH IPH LIMITED
Legal Overnight Price: $5.13
Goldman Sachs rates ((IPH)) as Buy (1)
First quarter FY25 like-for-like revenue and earnings (EBITDA) for IPH increased moderately compared to the prior corresponding period, though earnings were slightly impacted by currency headwinds, notes Goldman Sachs.
The A&NZ region showed solid improvements, according the analysts, while Canada traded in line with expectations but facing delays in patent revenue due to system issues at the Canadian Intellectual Property Office. Asia experienced moderate revenue declines.
Management remains focused on narrowing the filings gap in A&NZ and integrating acquisitions in Canada, while client wins in Asia provide early signs of recovery.
Goldman maintains a Buy rating and a target price of $7.50, citing potential for an improving outlook in 2H25.
This report was published on November 15, 2024.
Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $5.13 Difference: $2.37
If IPH meets the Goldman Sachs target it will return approximately 46% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.21, suggesting upside of 40.6%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 47.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.02%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.91.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 46.2, implying annual growth of 84.2%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 34.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.
Forecast for FY26:
Goldman Sachs forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 39.00 cents and EPS of 51.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 7.60%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.06.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 49.9, implying annual growth of 8.0%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
PLT PLENTI GROUP LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit Overnight Price: $0.74
Wilsons rates ((PLT)) as Overweight (1)
Plenti Group reported 1H25 results with cash profit up 260% year-on-year to $5.5m and a 14% increase in its loan book to $2.3bn, driven by strong origination growth across all verticals, notes Wilsons.
The cost-to-income ratio improved by 442 basis points to 24.3%, reflecting strong operating leverage, while net credit losses remained below 1%, underscoring the quality of the loan book, explains the analyst.
The National Australia Bank (NAB) partnership is advancing, with the first NAB/Plenti product now available, and Wilsons highlights significant long-term growth potential as new products are rolled out and the partnership’s loan portfolio expands.
Wilsons retains an Overweight rating and a target price of $1.50, citing enhanced earnings quality and growth optionality from the NAB partnership.
This report was published on November 20, 2024.
Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $0.74 Difference: $0.76
If PLT meets the Wilsons target it will return approximately 103% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in March.
Forecast for FY25:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents.
Forecast for FY26:
Wilsons forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SPZ SMART PARKING LIMITED
Hardware & Equipment Overnight Price: $0.93
Canaccord Genuity rates ((SPZ)) as Buy (1)
Smart Parking reported Q1 FY25 revenue of $17m, up 24% year-on-year, with adjusted earnings (EBITDA) of $5.4m, reflecting a 32% margin, notes Canaccord Genuity.
The company surpassed its December 2024 site target of 1,500 sites early, with 1,529 sites currently operational, and announced a new organic target of 3,000 sites by 2028, highlights the broker.
Management confirmed ambitions to expand into over ten geographies, including potential entries into the US and Scandinavia.
Canaccord Genuity raises its target price to $1.10 from $0.75 due to the roll-forward of the broker’s financial model and upgrades to long-term forecasts. A Buy rating is kept.
This report was published on November 18, 2024.
Target price is $1.10 Current Price is $0.93 Difference: $0.17
If SPZ meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 38.75.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.07.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TYR TYRO PAYMENTS LIMITED
Business & Consumer Credit Overnight Price: $0.95
Canaccord Genuity rates ((TYR)) as Buy (1)
Tyro Payments retained FY25 guidance at the AGM, Canaccord Genuity observed, with management expecting gross profit growth of 3%-7%.
The broker highlights the company may reach the top end due to smaller-than-expected churn from Lightspeed merchants. EBITDA margins are projected to rise to 31% by FY27 from the current 28%, supported by gross profit growth of around 10% in FY26/27.
On the broker’s assessment, Tyro shares trade at a substantial discount to peers, with an EV/gross profit multiple of 1.8x and EV/EBITDA of 6x.
Despite recent concerns over potential regulatory impacts from the Reserve Bank’s payments review, management expects minimal effects on gross profit.
Canaccord Genuity considers the shares undervalued and anticipates operating leverage to improve as economic conditions stabilise.
The $1.65 target and Buy rating are maintained.
This report was published on November 13, 2024.
Target price is $1.65 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.7
If TYR meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 74% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.52, suggesting upside of 60.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY25:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.00.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.0, implying annual growth of -38.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.7.
Forecast for FY26:
Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 15.83.How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 4.6, implying annual growth of 53.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.7.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALL - ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALQ - ALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HLS - HEALIUS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXL - NUIX LIMITED