Technicals | Dec 11 2024
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
Last week’s break above the November 21,182 high reignited the uptrend in the Nasdaq100 before hitting our next upside target of 21,500.
Provided the Nasdaq100 remains above short-term support at 21,000 and above the mid-November 20,315 low, we look for a test of the next upside target of 22,000 before weekly trend channel resistance at 22,300-ish, as viewed on the chart below.
Aware that if the Nasdaq100 were to first see a sustained break below 21,000 and then below 20,315, it would warn that a deeper decline is underway towards the 200-day moving average at 19,229, reinforced by trend line support at 19,000ish. Below here, there isn’t much in the way of support until the August low of 17,453.
A reminder, bullish seasonality favours gains for US equities from mid-December into mid-January.
Historically, the last two weeks of December rank as the third-best two-week period of the year, averaging a positive 0.99% return.
The first two weeks of January are even more positive, boasting an average return of 1.61%.
The last two weeks of December and the first two weeks of January create the most favourable four-week stretch of the year, with an average return of 2.6%.
Australia: ASX200
This week, the ASX200 has extended its pullback from the multi-week trend line resistance we have been following since the halfway mark of 2024 currently at 8510-ish.
On the downside, a sustained break below 8350-ish would trigger a possible head-and-shoulders topping pattern on the intra-day charts and project a move towards 8250 before 8200.
Otherwise, we expect more of the two-step forward, one-step back price action viewed since September.
Gold
Gold is trading higher at US$2692/oz (1.18%), driven by news earlier in the week that China resumed its gold purchases after a six-month pause, alongside expectations of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting and anticipated looser monetary policy in China for 2025.
After another false break lower, the overnight rally in gold indicates the uptrend has been restored.
WTI Crude
WTI Crude Oil is trading higher at US$68.41/bbl (0.06%), supported by optimism that China will increase support for its economy in 2025 thereby boosting demand for crude oil.
Provided crude oil remains above support US$66/65 area, we look for a rebound in the crude oil price towards range highs US$72.50-ish in the sessions ahead.
Technical limitations
If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.
Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” – Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.
FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On
