Technicals | Mar 05 2025
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
After it pushed to a marginal fresh record high on February 19th, the Nasdaq100 promptly retreated below 22,000, falling back into its prior eight-week range.
The move was highlighted as a false break higher and has been followed by a fall of almost -2000 points.
With the Nasdaq100 now testing a band of critical region of support, which includes the 200-day moving average at 20,221 and uptrend support from the December 2022 low at 19,870, we have moved to a more neutral bias while watching for one of two things.
1/ If the Nasdaq holds the support mentioned above and then rallies above resistance 22,200/50ish, it indicates the correction is complete and the uptrend has resumed.
2/ If the Nasdaq sees a sustained move below support at 20,200/19,870, it opens the way for a deeper pullback towards 18,000.
ASX200
The ASX200 yesterday hit to the point the upper bound of key support area at 8150/00, before buying emerged.
Providing the ASX200 remains above 8150/8100 and the last bastion of support at 8000, allow for the ASX200 to recover towards 8350/8400 in the weeks ahead.
Aware that if the ASX200 were to see a sustained break below 8150/8100 and then below support at 8050/8000 (from the December low), it would open the way for the sell-off to extend towards 7600.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil trades flat at US$68.40/bbl (0.04%), rebounding from a fifteen-week low of US$66.77/bbl on a “sell the rumour buy the fact” reaction to yesterday’s escalation in trade tension.
After falling over -17% from its January 15 US$80.77 high, there is finally some evidence of seller exhaustion evident in the charts.
We continue to look for weekly support around US$65/US$63 to hold firm before a recovery back to US$72.00/bbl.
Gold
Gold trades higher at US$2917/oz (+0.84%) as yesterday’s escalation in the trade war and recent soft US data raised expectations of a more aggressive Fed rate-cutting cycle this year, weighing on the US dollar.
Gold currently trades within a bullish trend channel. The top of the trend channel is at US$3015/oz, and the bottom is at US$2720-ish.
Technical limitations
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