The Overnight Report: Whiplash Rebound

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Tariff rumours whipsawed the S&P500 over an 8.5% range from trough-to-peak over the trading day, with US markets closing near their highs. After a tumultuous Monday on the ASX200, SPI futures are up by 0.75%.

World Overnight
SPI Overnight	7392.00	+ 55.00	0.75%
S&P ASX 200	7343.30	– 324.50	– 4.23%
S&P500	5062.25	– 11.83	– 0.23%
Nasdaq Comp	15603.26	+ 15.48	0.10%
DJIA	37965.60	– 349.26	– 0.91%
S&P500 VIX	46.98	+ 1.67	3.69%
US 10-year yield	4.16	+ 0.17	4.27%
USD Index	103.22	+ 0.45	0.44%
FTSE100	7702.08	– 352.90	– 4.38%
DAX30	19789.62	– 852.10	– 4.13%

Good Morning,

US markets were extremely turbulent overnight on above-average volumes.

Australian Morning Focus: Extract from ANZ Bank

Contrasting tariff messages caused wild swings in equity markets overnight, with European indexes sharply lower. The market briefly thought there would be a 90-day pause on tariff implementation, but this was denied. 

President Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on China if it doesn’t withdraw its retaliatory tariffs immediately but also said negotiations were live with Japan and Israel, inviting others to “come and join us”.

Equity markets were exceptionally volatile but generally lower again overnight, as tariff news and rumours swirled. The S&P 500 was down -0.2%, and the Dow was down -0.9%. Europe was a sea of red. 

The Euro Stoxx 50 tumbled -4.5% and the FTSE 100 was down -4.4%, following on from sharp falls in Asia. 

The yield on the US 10y bond was up 30bp to 4.20%, suggesting concerns about the US fiscal outlook are weakening haven status. Gold was down 1.5% to US$2,985.3/oz.

Tariffs continue to roll markets: The lack of meaningful respite on tariffs over the weekend drove financial markets into a deeper selloff at the start of London trading, following weakness in Asian markets. 

Intraday, there were reports indicating Trump may be willing to consider a 90-day pause on tariffs for all countries except China, but this was then refuted by the White House. 

Trump posted on social media that if China does not withdraw its 34% retaliatory tariffs by tomorrow, the US will impose an additional 50% tariff, effective 9 April. Trump added that all dialogue with China will be terminated in such an event. 

Most other trading partners, including the EU, Japan, and Israel, have begun negotiations, with Trump saying “for those who are ready to take a seat at the negotiating table and recognize that they will no longer be able to mistreat America, please come and join us.” 

EU finance ministers will be shown the EU’s planned response to US tariffs today, with a vote on the proposed measures on Wednesday. Clearly, a negotiated solution is preferred and EU President Von der Leyen said earlier the offer of a zero-tariff deal on industrial goods with the US is still on the table. 

Japan’s prime minister Ishiba spoke with Trump; discussions will continue. Israel’s prime minister Netanyahu is set to meet Trump later today to discuss tariffs. They are scheduled to hold a joint press conference, which will be Trump’s first press conference since the tariff announcement. US recession probabilities have risen as a result, and markets are now pricing nearly five 25bp rate cuts from the Fed this year.

-Dow Jones Industrial Average: -10.8% year-to-date
-S&P500: -13.9% year-to-date
-S&PMidcap 400: -16.1% year-to-date
-Russell2000: -18.8% year-to-date
-Nasdaq Composite: -19.2% year-to-date

Interesting extract from overnight

Former-NY Fed President Dudley also said there was less room to cut rates: “Any easing of monetary policy that stokes inflation expectations will necessitate a much harsher and costlier tightening later. Hence, I think investors are too optimistic about the likelihood of central bank support” and “For bonds, the main issue will be the trajectory of short-term interest rates. Currently, markets are pricing in more than 100 basis points of easing this year. I think that’s likely (and justified) only in the event of an actual economic downturn”.

Corpporate news in Australia

-Nuix ((NXL)) points to slower growth due to global uncertainty, though strong cashflow is still anticipated.

-Major investors push for James Hardie Industries ((JHX)) to review Azek takeover.

-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX)) states US tariffs will not impact supply chains or its operations.

-Star Entertainment ((SGR)) accepts buyout worth $300m from Bally’s.

-CoStar’s bid ($2.8bn) for Domain Holdings ((DHG)) is at risk due to market uncertainty.

-Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, warns tariff rises increase global recession risks.

On the calendar today:

-AU March NAB bus survey

-JP Feb BoP

-JP Feb Trade bal

-US March NFIB

-BRICKWORKS LIMITED ((BKW)) ex-div 25c (100%)

FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/

Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures
Gold (oz)	2988.27	– 47.13	– 1.55%
Silver (oz)	30.08	+ 0.85	2.91%
Copper (lb)	4.24	– 0.16	– 3.71%
Aluminium (lb)	1.07	+ 0.00	0.07%
Nickel (lb)	6.46	– 0.31	– 4.59%
Zinc (lb)	1.19	– 0.01	– 0.96%
West Texas Crude	61.01	– 0.98	– 1.58%
Brent Crude	64.26	– 1.32	– 2.01%
Iron Ore (t)	100.85	– 1.79	– 1.74%

The Australian share market over the past thirty days

Index	07 Apr 2025	Week To Date	Month To Date (Apr)	Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun)	Year To Date (2025)
S&P ASX 200 (ex-div)	7343.30	-4.23%	-6.38%	-6.38%	-10.00%

BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS
ALD	Ampol	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Macquarie
AMP	AMP	Upgrade to Neutral from Sell	UBS
BGL	Bellevue Gold	Downgrade to Hold from Buy	Bell Potter
DLI	Delta Lithium	Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate	Ord Minnett
EMR	Emerald Resources	Upgrade to Lighten from Sell	Ord Minnett
GL1	Global Lithium Resources	Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold	Ord Minnett
LTR	Liontown Resources	Downgrade to Lighten from Hold	Ord Minnett
MFG	Magellan Financial	Upgrade to Neutral from Sell	UBS
MPL	Medibank Private	Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Ord Minnett
PDI	Predictive Discovery	Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Ord Minnett
PRU	Perseus Mining	Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy	Ord Minnett
TEA	Tasmea	Upgrade to Buy High Risk from Hold High Risk	Shaw and Partners
TWE	Treasury Wine Estates	Downgrade to Neutral from Buy	Citi
VEA	Viva Energy	Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform	Macquarie

For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.

All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website.  Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)

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