Technicals | Apr 17 2025
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
The acceleration from the late March 20,292 high to last week’s 16,542 low has been viewed as a Wave iii or C or the third leg in the decline from the 22,222-record high.
The million-dollar question remains is whether the bounce from the 16,542 low is a short squeeze before the sell-off resumes or an indication that the correction from the 22,222 high is complete at the 16,542 low and that the uptrend has resumed.
The price action in the coming session will be crucial in answering this question. Specifically, if the Nasdaq 100 can reclaim the 200-day moving average at 20,258, we prefer the second option. However, while it remains below the 200-day moving average, the risks are for a retest of the 16,542 low.
ASX200
From its mid-February high of 8615, the ASX200 fell 882 points (10.23%) to a low of 7733 (Wave I or A from Elliott Wave Analysis) in mid-March, before rebounding to a high of 8014 (Wave ii or B). From the late March 8014 high, the ASX200 fell 844 points to last Monday’s 7169 low, before rebounding.
Put together, this suggests that the fall from the 8014 high is the third leg of (Wave C) a three-wave ABC correction from the February 8615 high, rather than a new bear market. However, a sustained move above 7800 is needed to increase confidence in this view. Until then, a retest of the 7169 low is possible.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished higher overnight at US$62.47, up 1.86%, supported by better-than-expected Chinese GDP, new US sanctions on Iranian oil exports as the US looks to increase pressure on Iran regarding its nuclear program and a free-falling US dollar. A move above resistance US$65/US$67 is needed to negate downside risks in crude oil.
Gold
Gold finished higher overnight at US$3343, up 3.51%, surging to a fresh record high supported by a free-falling US dollar and safe-haven flows following the escalation in trade tensions between the US and China. With the rally in bullion now in the parabolic/panic phase, there appears to be little in the way to stop gold from moving towards US$3500.
Technical limitations
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