Technicals | 1:16 PM
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
The rally at the end of last week above the 19,234 high (April 9) and above the Wave I or A low at 19,152 raises some questions about the short-term bearish wave count.
One of the three key rules of Elliott Wave is that Wave IV should not overlap with the price territory of Wave I.
We allow some limited flex with this rule, but the rally from the 16,542 low is currently testing those boundaries.
From here, we would prefer to see some immediate weakness to confirm the Wave IV rally is complete and that Wave V is underway.
However, while the Nasdaq100 remains below the 200-day moving average, currently at 20,187, medium-term downside risks remain, including a retest of the April 16,542 low.
ASX200
From its mid-February high of 8615, the ASX200 fell -16.78% to its early April 7169 low, a move viewed as a correction rather than the onset of a new bear market.
After its strong rebound from the April lows, we expect the ASX200 to spend some time (months) consolidating broadly in a range between 8200ish and 7650ish.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished lower overnight at US$60.42 (-2.63%) on track for a monstrous -15.5% fall this month.
Its fall overnight came on concerns around tariffs and slowing global growth against a backdrop of increased supply from OPEC-plus.
Technically, a move above resistance at US$65/US$67 is needed to negate downside risks in crude oil. Until then, a retest of support at US$55.00/bbl is likely.
Gold
Gold finished lower overnight at US$3317/oz (-0.80%), as the beaten-up USD gained on month-end rebalancing flows ahead of key US inflation, growth and jobs data.
Gold’s decline also followed reports that President Trump will reduce the impact of automotive tariffs by easing duties on foreign-made parts in US-made cars to prevent tariff stacking as he continues to scale back elevated tariffs.
Gold has been well supported in recent sessions on dips below US$3300/oz in recent sessions but does look vulnerable to another leg lower below US$3200/oz.
Technical limitations
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