Weekly Reports | May 13 2025
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
The big picture outlook for uranium demand remains strong which has commentators questioning (again) is the uranium market disconnected from the longer-term picture?
-ASX short positions barely shift according to latest ASIC data
-Demand dynamics for nuclear fuel remain robust
-Oregon Group questions the ‘fundamental disconnect’
-U308 supply challenges continue to mount
By Danielle Ecuyer
What’s been happening in U308 markets
In the last few weeks, FNArena has written extensively on the oversold positions in Australian uranium stocks, alongside the high short interests versus the improvement in company fundamentals, notably Paladin Energy ((PDN)) and Boss Energy ((BOE)).
Ord Minnett has been trumpeting the unsustainability of those short positions and the expected durability of a short covering rally.
While uranium stocks have certainly advanced off their 52-week lows, the latest ASIC data on short positions as of May 5 still show four U308 companies inside the Top 20.
Against the previous week, the positions have shrunk ever so slightly. Boss is still in the number one position at 24.85% shorted, followed by Paladin at 16.24%, Deep Yellow ((DYL)) at number four with 12.41%, and Lotus Resources ((LOT)) at 9.01%.
Morgan Stanley is the latest broker to ponder the machinations of the uranium market, highlighting a positive rebound in the U308 spot price by 6% this year from the 2025 lows to US$69/lb-US$70/lb.
Like many markets, uncertainty around tariffs and trade policies, overlaid with geopolitics regarding Russian exports, saw utilities take a back seat while some clarity formed.
Over the first quarter of 2025, contracting activity fell by -9% with US purchases halving.
With the exemption of reciprocal tariffs under Annex II, Morgan Stanley points to an improvement in U308 procurement, although the magnitude of the recovery may be curtailed by limitations in conversion capacity.
Industry consultant TradeTech highlighted U308 spot price remained at US$70/lb last week, reflecting a rise of 7.7% over April but still down year-to-date by -7.9%.
Transactions in the spot market over the week were thin, with buyers bidding below US$70/lb and sellers refusing to budge.
TradeTech notes no transactions in the term market, although participants are reported as monitoring the outcome of several mid- and long-term requests for proposals.
One utility is evaluating offers for up to 300klbs U308 per annum with deliveries starting in 2026. Offers have been requested to remain valid until May 13.
The TradeTech Mid-Term price indicator for the week was US$72/lb and the Long-Term price indicator US$80/lb.
Taking a Long-Term View on Demand
Oregon Group put pen to paper recently with its latest views on uranium and a follow-up to its 2022 report when the group forecast a 10-year bull market, noting since then there are more nuclear reactors, more under construction, and more planned.
Demand for uranium and global consumption has risen, yet there has not been a corresponding adjustment and increase in supply.
Morgan Stanley stresses the same point, detailing China is leading the way globally in nuclear reactors, having approved another ten new reactors in April. This is the fourth consecutive year China has approved ten or more new developments.
Oregon states China has 58 operable reactors with 158 proposed. In comparison, the US has 94 operable reactors with 13 proposed, and Russia 36 in operation and 51 proposed.
India has 24 with 28 proposed. Globally, 362 reactors are proposed compared to 440 operable.
The argument for nuclear energy is boosted by the ongoing global shift to decarbonise and provide what is often referred to as around-the-clock baseload power, in lieu of coal-fired generation plants.
While only 10% of the world’s electricity is supplied by nuclear, the existing 440 reactors prevent emissions of 2.1bn CO2 equivalent annually.
The emergence of GenAI and the ancillary flow-on demand for ever-larger and more powerful energy voracious data centres has only served to boost the demand side of the market dynamics.
Large language models such as ChatGPT require almost 100% more electricity to process a query than traditional search engines such as offered by Google.
Goldman Sachs has forecast electricity demand from data centres will double by 2030, and nuclear power is a key part of the solution.
Oregon also quotes the World Nuclear Association’s 2024 Nuclear Fuel Report, which estimates nuclear generation may grow by as much as 240% by 2040. The association estimates by 2050 uranium demand will have increased to as much as 140,000t uranium versus 59,000t in 2023.
Given the decline in the spot U308 price from US$100/lb in 2024 to US$70/lb, the group begs the question: either the 2022 analysis has gone awry, and the party is over? Or are uranium markets experiencing a fundamental disconnect?
Turning to the Supply Side of the Equation
Within the context of supply, Oregon dissects the nature of the uranium markets, as unlike other commodities, U3O8 does not trade on an open platform.
Market participants negotiate privately either on spot but mostly through longer-term contracts in what is referred to as the “term” market.
Utilities are the major participants through long-term price contracts, with usually scant if no details on stockpiles and acquisition plans.
The spot market, which tends to set the tone regarding the movement and sentiment for uranium producers and developers (stocks), is constituted by volumes transacted by funds, such as the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust, as well as suppliers like Cameco and Orano picking up additional inventory.
The spot market is “notoriously thin” and lacks considerable transparency.
Given the structure of the markets to trade, investors need to also ponder the geopolitical overlay regarding supply.
The Ukraine/Russia war and associated sanctions and export restrictions against the supply of U308 from Russia have highlighted the lingering uncertainty over supplies.
President Trump exacerbated the uncertainty with trade tariffs on Canada, a major supplier of uranium to the US, up until the exemption which saw the tariff impost decline to 10% from 25%.
Key to supply is Kazakhstan, the world’s largest producer, which supplies around 25% of America’s uranium supply and is increasingly going to most probably direct all production to Russia and China.
In terms of the split in supplies, global mining of U308 generated around 49,490t in 2022 or 74% of annual utility demand, with existing stockpiles providing the balance.
Oregon highlights secondary supplies are anticipated to decline to around 9% of total supply by 2030 and remain at this level out to 2040, citing an industry source.
Much of the new uranium supply is dependent on the price. While the current term price is some three times higher than the twenty-year price low set in 2018, it remains below the triple-digit incentive price required to spur on new developments and mines to meet growing demand.
Oregon details the challenges to expanding mining capacity from cost inflation to operational challenges, long lead times, and a higher incentive price.
Deep Yellow recently announced a delay in its final investment decision for the Namibian Tumas project, awaiting a recovery in the U308 spot price. The company also lifted capex guidance by US$62m to -US$472m and the first-year opex by US$4.25/lb to -US$38.60/lb on an estimated achieved uranium price of US$82.50/lb.
Oregon Group concludes global uranium supply has a challenging task to confront, with the prospect of growing demand for nuclear fuel.
Morgan Stanley also articulates supply-side constraints, with Peninsula Energy ((PEN)) recently downgrading US mine production for FY25-FY27 due to bad weather and supply chain problems.
Paladin has also experienced extreme wet weather impacts and delays in ramping up Langer Heinrich, while sulphuric acid challenges in Kazakhstan are impacting the Cameco–Kazatomprom JV in the country, which could affect the latter’s ramp-up by over 6.6kt from 2024-2030.
The broker also does not believe NexGen’s ((NXG)) Rook 1 will likely be online this decade.
Morgan Stanley forecasts the spot uranium price to remain “elevated” through 2025 and forecasts US$69/lb on average for 3Q 2025.
Notably, demand from ETFs has been missing since November but could improve if the narrative and outlook for AI data centres returns to markets.
Latest Corporate News
Canaccord Genuity was the latest broker to highlight Boss’ market update featured better-than-expected production, sales, realised price, and costs for the March quarter, with management re-affirming FY25 production guidance.
The stock is rated Speculative Buy with a target price of $5.15, down from $5.35.
Lotus Resources was in the news for its progress at the Kayelekera Uranium Project in Malawi, and Canaccord observed first production remains scheduled for 3Q 2025. This stock retains a Speculative Buy with a target price of 31c, down from 34c.
For more recent updates and articles:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/05/06/uranium-week-stocks-surge-shorts-scramble/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/29/uranium-week-tariff-exemption-piques-interest/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/22/uranium-week-stock-bulls-dig-in/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/04/16/boss-energy-on-the-beat/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/03/11/uranium-week-capitulation-near-the-bottom/
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 09/05/2025 | 0.0600 |  20.00% |
$0.10 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 09/05/2025 | 0.1300 | 8.70% |
$0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 09/05/2025 | 0.0300 | 6.90% |
$0.07 | $0.02 | $0.100 | 233.3% |
|
| AKN | 09/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 09/05/2025 | 0.0600 |  – 1.85% |
$0.17 | $0.05 | |||
| BKY | 09/05/2025 | 0.5300 | 10.10% |
$0.66 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 09/05/2025 | 3.0500 | 14.34% |
$4.87 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 54.1% |
|
| BOE | 09/05/2025 | 3.9300 | 9.42% |
$5.99 | $1.99 | 208.4 | $3.759 | – 4.4% |
| BSN | 09/05/2025 | 0.0100 | – 6.67% |
$0.11 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 09/05/2025 | 0.0400 | -20.00% |
$0.13 | $0.03 | |||
| CXO | 09/05/2025 | 0.0700 | – 1.41% |
$0.17 | $0.06 | $0.090 | 28.6% |
|
| CXU | 09/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 09/05/2025 | 0.0800 | 6.41% |
$0.45 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 09/05/2025 | 1.3500 | 14.41% |
$1.83 | $0.75 | -1370.0 | $1.570 | 16.3% |
| EL8 | 09/05/2025 | 0.3200 | 6.67% |
$0.62 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 09/05/2025 | 0.0020 | -50.00% |
$0.05 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 09/05/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 09/05/2025 | 0.0030 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 09/05/2025 | 0.0600 | -14.29% |
$0.13 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 09/05/2025 | 0.0500 | 12.50% |
$0.12 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 09/05/2025 | 0.0900 | -10.00% |
$1.03 | $0.09 | |||
| KOB | 09/05/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.04 | |||
| LAM | 09/05/2025 | 0.7200 | 0.00% | $1.04 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 09/05/2025 | 0.1900 | 5.71% |
$0.49 | $0.13 | $0.325 | 71.1% |
|
| MEU | 09/05/2025 | 0.0400 | – 4.65% |
$0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 09/05/2025 | 9.0800 | 8.91% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $14.650 | 61.3% |
|
| ORP | 09/05/2025 | 0.0300 | -25.00% |
$0.11 | $0.03 | |||
| PDN | 09/05/2025 | 6.4600 | 2.91% |
$17.98 | $3.93 | -388.1 | $8.507 | 31.7% |
| PEN | 09/05/2025 | 0.6200 | 0.00% | $2.44 | $0.55 | $1.000 | 61.3% |
|
| SLX | 09/05/2025 | 3.0500 | – 5.45% |
$6.74 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 113.1% |
|
| TOE | 09/05/2025 | 0.2100 | 5.13% |
$0.46 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 09/05/2025 | 0.0300 | 47.83% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BOE - BOSS ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NXG - NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN - PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PEN - PENINSULA ENERGY LIMITED