Technicals | Jun 04 2025
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
Post the Nasdaq 100’s surge higher on the 12th of May, we have been working with the view that the rally in the Nasdaq100 from the 21st of April 17,592 low is a Wave iii (Elliott Wave) that should be followed by a Wave iv pullback.
With Wave iii maturing but still extending, the wait continues for the Wave iv pullback to commence, which will ideally take the Nasdaq100 back towards the 200-day moving average 20,500 area. This should then be followed by another leg higher for Wave v.
We continue to highlight that a sustained break below the support provided by the 200-day moving average at 20,391, followed by a sustained break below the medium-term support 19,250/19,150 area, would negate the positive bias and warn of a retest of the April lows.
ASX200
Following its impressive recovery from the April 7169 low, the ASX200 has extended its gains to within -1.4% of its record high. It seems improbable for the index to have come this far without retesting its all-time high of 8615.
As we don’t see the grounds for a sustained break of the record high, we will be watching closely for evidence of a double top formation as the precursor to a pullback.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished higher overnight at US$63.41/bbl (1.42%), extending its gains on rising Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, following reports that Iran will reject the US proposal to curtail its nuclear weapons ambitions, and a report from the Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicating that Iran had increased its stockpile of uranium enriched to nearly weapons-grade levels by almost 50% in the past three months.
Wildfires in Canada’s oil producing regions are bringing additional support to the crude oil price. Upside risks in crude oil are building and a sustained break above resistance at US$65.00/$65.50 would open up a move initially towards the 200-day moving average at US$68.90/bbl.
Gold
Gold is trading lower at US$3353/oz (-0.84%) undercut by a rise in the USD and yields overnight following the release of stronger than expected JOLTS job openings data.
Technically, the decline from the US$3,500 high to the US$3120 low is viewed as a correction.
The push earlier this week above trend channel resistance and last week’s US$3366/oz high signals the next leg higher has likely commenced which sets up a test of the US$3435 high of early May, before the US$3500/oz record high.
Technical limitations
If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.
Find out why FNArena subscribers like the service so much: “Your Feedback (Thank You)” Warning this story contains unashamedly positive feedback on the service provided.
FNArena is proud about its track record and past achievements: Ten Years On