Daily Market Reports | Jun 04 2025
This story features DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED, and other companies. For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DHG
The company is included in ASX300, ALL-ORDS and ALL-TECH
A positive JOLTS report kept the buyers enthusiasm going on Wall Street with Nvidia exercising its AI strength as the largest listed company after Microsoft.
The positive sentiment continues to flow downunder with ASX200 futures signalling another positive start for the local market.
| World Overnight | |||
| SPI Overnight | 8510.00 | + 26.00 | 0.31% |
| S&P ASX 200 | 8466.70 | + 52.60 | 0.63% |
| S&P500 | 5970.37 | + 34.43 | 0.58% |
| Nasdaq Comp | 19398.96 | + 156.34 | 0.81% |
| DJIA | 42519.64 | + 214.16 | 0.51% |
| S&P500 VIX | 17.69 | – 0.67 | – 3.65% |
| US 10-year yield | 4.46 | – 0.00 | – 0.04% |
| USD Index | 99.24 | + 0.62 | 0.63% |
| FTSE100 | 8787.02 | + 12.76 | 0.15% |
| DAX30 | 24091.62 | + 160.95 | 0.67% |
Good Morning,
US markets continue to turn a blind eye to macro and tariff concerns, with rising speculation markets are due a melt up, boosted by the AI trade, as well as a broading market depth with energy and financial stocks joining the rally.
What happened overnight? Summary
The stock market was on a winning streak from the morning, and participants showed little intention of moving off the buying momentum.
The markets were largely dismissing an afternoon contentious tweet from Elon Musk that the “one big, beautiful bill” is a “disgusting abomination” since it will massively increase the budget deficit. CNBC also reported President Trump has not been seen publicly for 48-hours and his most recent activity on Truth Social was a post promoting Kid Rock’s new Nashville restaurant.
The JOLTS data release was viewed as a good indication for the labor market, which conveyed some encouraging thoughts about the growth outlook in spite of the OECD downgrading its 2025 global GDP growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.1% and its U.S. GDP growth forecast to 1.6% from 2.2%.
Today’s best-performing sector was the information technology sector, up 1.5%, which was led by Nvidia shares up 4.02% and the semiconductor stocks. The energy sector rose 1.1%, followed by materials rising 1.0% and industrials up 0.8%, suggesting today’s pro-cyclical orientation. Meta also annoounced its intention to buy nuclear power from Constellation Energy as AI energy demand rises.
The Russell2000 rose 1.6%, led by its banking and energy components, and outpaced the other major indices. Today’s buying efforts, though, were broad-based.
Advancers led decliners by a better than 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and Nasdaq. Like yesterday, today’s advance unfolded on below-average trading volume at the NYSE and Nasdaq.
Whistling Past the Tariff Graveyard- Stephen Innes SPI Asset Management
Wall Street kicked off Tuesday’s session with a show of resilience that would make even the most cynical bear blink. Against the backdrop of an OECD downgrade that painted a grim global portrait –one where Trump’s tariff war hangs over the economy like a sword of Damocles– U.S. equities chose optimism.
Traders shrugged off the gloom and instead chased momentum, zeroing in on an upside surprise in the JOLTS report, where job openings printed 7.39 million versus the expected 7.1 million. That figure didn’t just land, it landed with conviction, helping smother early-week whispers of a sub-100 NFP shocker and re-anchoring the market’s faith in the durability of the U.S. labour engine.
The S&P500 caught a bid, powered once again by its usual suspects: the megacap mafia. Nvidia, now crowned the world’s most valuable publicly traded company, added another 3% and strutted past Microsoft with a US$3.444 trillion market cap, making it not just the belle of the AI ball, but the lead conductor of the market’s entire symphony.
The GenAI trade, far from being yesterday’s news, has reasserted itself with vengeance. What started as a boutique strategy has now turned Broadway; long secular growth and fortress-balance-sheet tech names are the only game in town again.
Elsewhere, energy stocks laced up and joined the rally after oil prices found traction on renewed geopolitical jitters. Ukraine’s bold drone strike on Russian long-range bombers didn’t just rattle sabers, it stirred oil markets into a sticky bid, as traders priced in a not-if-but-when Russian retaliation scenario. Brent barely blinked on the dip and is now firming again, dragging energy names higher into the close.
Small caps weren’t left behind in the chase. The Russell2000, often seen as the canary in the domestic coal mine, rallied 1.5%, as traders broadened exposure. The trade is likely a tactical nod to signs that the real economy, tariffs or not, is still punching above its weight.
Yet beneath this surface-level rally lies a growing divergence. The OECD’s growth outlook for the U.S. now pegs 2025 GDP at a meagre 1.6%, sliding to 1.5% in 2026.
The culprit? Trump’s go-for-broke tariff policy is cooling global investment flows and freezing bets on the supply chain. Over in China, the Caixin PMI dropped to its lowest level since 2022, offering a bleak reminder that no one escapes this crossfire unscathed; not even the world’s factory floor.
All eyes now turn to Friday’s payroll print, with JOLTS setting the stage and equities already leaning bullish. But the big wildcard remains trade. Trump’s “reciprocal tariff” clock is ticking, and he’s pressing partners for best-and-final offers by midweek.
A phone call with Xi could offer relief or reignite the fuse. Either way, the market is trading like it’s long optionality and short paralysis, betting that headlines, however frothy, can still power this tape higher.
For now, the rally persists. However, with tariffs looming and growth downgrades increasing, if they all collide at once, the question will then be who’s still swimming naked when it does.
The View (continued): Squeezy
Small caps are back in play, vaulting above their 100-day moving average like a bat out of a macro basement. Retail sentiment? Still on full tilt with mom-and-pop flows riding high on the belief that a robust labour market trumps tariff tremors.
Meanwhile, the GenAI trade which was thought to be taking a breather after the DeepSeek stumble has roared back with a vengeance, wiping out recent losses and helping push the Nasdaq100 to within -2.5% of its all-time highs.
And just like that, Nvidia reclaimed its throne. The chip juggernaut leapt back above Microsoft to become the world’s most valuable company, yet again, closing with a US$3.444 trillion market cap. The message from the street is crystal: fortress balance sheets and secular AI dominance are still the market’s holy grail, and nobody plays that theme louder than Nvidia.
Under the hood, it was a classic “small beats big, laggards beat leaders” rotation, with SMID-cap names catching a violent bid. Call it a beta-chasing bonanza, or a good old-fashioned squeeze, the kind that leaves short sellers gasping for air.
One-off movers off 52-week lows drew in hot money like moths to flame, and even with three of the six megacaps still in the red for the year, the index is climbing the wall of worry with ballet shoes.
On the rates side, things got punchy. Despite factory orders throwing up a red flag, yields surged as Bostic and his Fed colleagues leaned hawkish. Bostic’s no-nonsense tone –“still a ways to go” on inflation– cut through the rate-cut narrative like a chainsaw.
The belly of the curve bore the brunt, with yields up 23 bps across the board, as traders re-priced the 2025-2026 easing cycle lower and sent the dollar ripping off Monday’s lows with freshly minted USD/JPY shorts getting torched
Naturally, gold caught the wrong end of that stick, bleeding lower as the greenback flexed. Bitcoin, never one to miss a chance for theatre, did its usual pump-and-dump routine, echoing Monday’s chaos with another dizzying round trip.
Crude oil remained steady, maintaining its geopolitical premium. Brent Crude clung to the US$65 handle, supported by a labour market that refuses to crack and the lingering spectre of a Russian reprisal after Ukraine’s drone strike on long-range bombers. Traders aren’t just watching barrels, they’re pricing in a fuse that may already be lit.
And volatility? The VIX drifted back to a 17-handle, but no one’s sleeping easy. All eyes are on Friday’s payrolls. A “too-hot” number could throw the dovish narrative overboard, while a “just-right” print might be the final push to ATHs. Either way, traders are bracing for a post-NFP exhale, or an all-out detonation.
This is not a market looking for balance. It’s a battlefield of conviction, momentum, and macro minefields. Welcome to June.
Corporate news in Australia
-CoStar has acquired Homes.com.au ($22.8m) and is considering rebranding Domain Holdings ((DHG)) post acquisition.
-A $62m stake in McMillan Shakespeare ((MMS)) was sold via Morgans.
-TPG Telecom ((TPG)) has directed Bank of America to sell Made Group for $700m-plus.
-Life360 ((360)) is raising $250m in debt as it moves to possible M&A transactions.
-Bankers have opened the books for Virgin’s IPO and will raise $685m, some 30% of the offer size. The price is set at $2.90 or around 7x price-to-earnings for 2025 financial year. UBS, Goldman Sachs and Barrenjoey are involved.
-Japanese entertainment giant, Mixi has pitched in a higher bid for PointsBet ((PBH)) which values the business at $402m up from $353m to ward off the bid from Betr Entertainment ((BBT)).
On the calendar today:
-AU 1Q GDP
-US April Durable Goods
-US April Factory Orders
-US April JOLTS
-CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC ((CRN)) AGM
FNArena’s four-weekly calendar: https://fnarena.com/index.php/financial-news/calendar/
| Spot Metals,Minerals & Energy Futures | |||
| Gold (oz) | 3377.22 | – 29.13 | – 0.86% |
| Silver (oz) | 34.67 | – 0.26 | – 0.74% |
| Copper (lb) | 4.87 | + 0.01 | 0.21% |
| Aluminium (lb) | 1.12 | – 0.00 | – 0.08% |
| Nickel (lb) | 6.90 | + 0.03 | 0.36% |
| Zinc (lb) | 1.23 | + 0.00 | 0.21% |
| West Texas Crude | 63.41 | + 0.38 | 0.60% |
| Brent Crude | 65.63 | + 0.56 | 0.86% |
| Iron Ore (t) | 95.30 | – 0.65 | – 0.68% |
The Australian share market over the past thirty days
| Index | 03 Jun 2025 | Week To Date | Month To Date (Jun) | Quarter To Date (Apr-Jun) | Year To Date (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P ASX 200 (ex-div) | 8466.70 | 0.38% | 0.38% | 7.95% | 3.77% |
| BROKER RECOMMENDATION CHANGES PAST THREE TRADING DAYS | |||
| APA | APA Group | Downgrade to Trim from Hold | Morgans |
| BKW | Brickworks | Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
| FPH | Fisher & Paykel Healthcare | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | Citi |
| Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight | Morgan Stanley | ||
| IGO | IGO Ltd | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| LTR | Liontown Resources | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| MIN | Mineral Resources | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| PLS | Pilbara Minerals | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | UBS |
| TLC | Lottery Corp | Downgrade to Hold from Add | Morgans |
| WEB | Web Travel | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
For more detail go to FNArena’s Australian Broker Call Report, which is updated each morning, Mon-Fri.
All overnight and intraday prices, average prices, currency conversions and charts for stock indices, currencies, commodities, bonds, VIX and more available on the FNArena website. Click here. (Subscribers can access prices on the website.)
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 360 - LIFE360 INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BBT - BETR ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: CRN - CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DHG - DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MMS - MCMILLAN SHAKESPEARE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PBH - POINTSBET HOLDINGS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: TPG - TPG TELECOM LIMITED