Plenty Of Potential For Greatland Resources

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Freshly ASX-listed Greatland Resources is seen as a standout among junior resource companies. Now it’s up to management to deliver on the upside potential.

-Greatland Resources starts life on the ASX with upbeat research
-Proximity of Havieron deposit to Telfer advantageous
-Definitive feasibility study pending for Havieron
-Citi labels Greatland a standout in the junior resource space

By Mark Woodruff 

Greatland Resources ((GGP)) is shifting gears to a credible development story from a speculative gold-copper junior, following a corporate overhaul and ASX debut on June 24.

Inaugural research from Macquarie, Citi, and Moelis reveals a consistent set of themes.

Most significantly, all three highlight the strategic location of the Havieron underground gold-copper deposit in Western Australia, only 45 kms from Greatland’s Telfer facility, which dramatically reduces development risk and capex.

From FY28, Moelis explains, Havieron is set to become the main ore source, boosting margins and lowering cash costs due to higher grades.

The sheer scale and grade of the orebody is also noted, with the analysts suggesting recent upgrades have materially lifted confidence in the project’s economics.

Each broker highlights a series of near-term catalysts which could drive a share price re-rating, including the upcoming definitive feasibility study (DFS) for Havieron, ongoing exploration results, and progress on funding.

Greatland’s overall operations consist of an open cut and underground gold-copper mine, gas-fired power station, two processing trains, along with the greenfields underground development project Havieron.

Citi analysts view management’s strategic emphasis on tier-one jurisdictions and imminent copper-gold production as particularly compelling in the current market environment. Citi’s research highlights the company’s leveraged exposure to both key commodities, supported by robust structural demand drivers, as a major strength.

Greatland is labeled a stand out within the junior resource space, offering a unique combination of near-term production visibility and longer-term growth potential.

This dual appeal is further underpinned by strong strategic partnerships and the presence of a world-class orebody, positioning the company as a differentiated and high-conviction opportunity for investors.

Organisational restructure and listing

Greatland Resources shares rallied 11% on the day of ASX listing, closing at $7.30 compared to the $6.60 placement price, before settling back to $7.00 by July 1. Yesterday, they closed at $7.02.

According to Macquarie, this strong early performance signals increasing interest from Australian institutional investors and may pave the way for ongoing momentum.

This broker also highlights broader coverage from domestic research houses and the potential for inclusion in key indices, which could act as further catalysts for the stock.

Greatland was already listed in the UK on the AIM market for several years before last week’s Australian IPO. The dual listing is seen by Macquarie as a strategic step to deepen market engagement and expand shareholder support.

The AIM market (formerly the Alternative Investment Market) is a sub-market of the London Stock Exchange, designed specifically for smaller and growing companies.

The previous UK parent, Greatland Gold Plc, was replaced with Greatland Resources aligning its headquarters and regulatory structure with the core mining operations in Western Australia.

A $64m share placement (comprising $50m raised via the ASX IPO and $14m through a UK retail offer) was an integral part of Greatland’s ASX listing process.

The final IPO offer price also reflected the effect of a 20:1 share consolidation.

More on Havieron

Located in the Paterson Province of Western Australia, the Havieron deposit was originally discovered by Greatland and advanced under a joint venture with Newcrest Mining (now owned by Newmont Corp ((NEM)).

In late-2024, Greatland acquired full ownership of Havieron (and the nearby Telfer mine) from Newmont, positioning itself as both the developer and future operator of the project.

Prior to this acquisition, Greatland held a 30% interest, with Newmont (previously Newcrest) holding 70%. Newmont announced the takeover of Newcrest Mining in May 2023 and the deal which was completed in November of the same year.

The Telfer acquisition, completed in December 2024, instantly turned Greatland into a gold-copper producer, leveraging Telfer’s existing mill and ore stockpiles.

The 2025 Havieron mineral resource and ore reserve upgrade delivered a 28% increase in gold resources and an 18% lift in gold reserves. Such increases have provided Moelis with more confidence in Havieron’s development potential. They also underpin an extension of mine life beyond 2035.

The updated mineral resource now includes 7.3moz of gold equivalent comprising 6.1moz of gold and 314kt of copper, with the resource grade lifting to 2.1g/t gold equivalent.

The ore reserve also improved to 3.6moz gold equivalent at 2.4g/t. Moelis notes the increase in grade and ounces de-risks the economics of a potential standalone development pathway and offers further optionality in project structuring.

Citi forecasts costs (AISC) for Greatland from FY26-28 in the range of $2500-2850/oz. Once Havieron is ramped up, the broker models $1,150/oz.

This broker also highlights improved clarity following the updated ore reserve released by project partner Newmont in early June.

Citi believes this provides a firmer foundation for the upcoming DFS and paves the way for construction readiness by mid-2025.

The broker attributes increasing confidence in the timeline and commercial viability of Havieron to ongoing progress across multiple fronts, including permitting, development, and funding.

While Havieron is undoubtedly the centrepiece of the portfolio, Citi points out West Dome underground has delivered some of the best intercepts on the ASX this year and is an important near-term, high-grade ore source for the company.

West Dome underground is not a standalone project but a key ore source within the broader Telfer operations, which also includes the Main Dome and other deposits.

Feasibility study

While a 2025 study deferred a final investment decision for Havieron, the company’s robust prefeasibility study, which features a 10.8mtpa base case and a 6mtpa staged expansion, reinforces project flexibility, suggests Moelis.

Now, a comprehensive feasibility study is well underway, targeting completion in the second half of 2025. It is expected to refine a mine plan aiming for a 20-year mine life with low quartile costs at Havieron.

Citi anticipates management will greenlight a larger 4-4.5mtpa project trading off capex versus opex and unlocking lower-grade tonnes.

Notably, Greatland also updated Telfer’s resource and ore reserve in early 2025 to extend Telfer’s mine life through FY27, ensuring a production runway until Havieron comes online.

Funding

To fund the Havieron-Telfer acquisition (total consideration up to circa -US$475m, including -US$423m upfront plus -US$52m debt payoff) the company executed a US$334m equity raising in September 2024.

This placement was notably the largest raise inside the London mining sector since 2017 and brought in Newmont as a major shareholder in lieu of part of the payment.

Concurrently, management at Greatland arranged new debt facilities totaling A$100m with a syndicate of banks. These facilities, executed in December 2024, provide additional liquidity for operating Telfer, and remain largely undrawn as of mid-2025.

Management also repaid the outstanding US$52m joint-venture loan to Newmont at closing, leaving it with minimal debt.

According to Macquarie, free cash flow for Greatland will grow substantially from FY25, peaking at $345m in FY26 before further volatility due to cyclical capex.

Certainly, Moelis believes the company is well capitalised, with around $580m cash (no debt) and strong near-term cashflow forecasts.

Significant shareholders

The Havieron-Telfer deal transitioned Newmont from joint-venture partner to the company’s largest shareholder, holding around 20% of Greatland’s equity.

Another key backer is Wyloo Metals, led by Andrew Forrest, which currently owns around 8.6% after a $120m investment in 2022, and retains a right-of-first refusal on any future Newmont stake sales (for up to 10%).

Outlook

Starting with an Outperform rating and 12-month target of $7.80, Macquarie believes the gold price outlook and the forthcoming Havieron feasibility study are the two most important near-term catalysts for share price appreciation.

This broker maintains there is further upside potential, with the current share price not yet reflecting the expected expansion of the Havieron project to 4.5Mtpa.

Looking ahead, Citi (Neutral; $8.00) expects the delivery of the DFS, progress on approvals, and potential offtake or funding partnerships to serve as catalysts.

Any positive surprises in orebody expansion or reserve growth could drive further upside, note the analysts.

Outside of daily coverage in the FNArena database, Moelis (Hold; target $7.50) cautions further delays at Havieron could push the planned production ramp-up into FY29.

Importantly, this broker sees further upside to Greatland’s valuation contingent on continued drilling success, increased clarity around Newmont’s intentions, and tangible progress toward a binding development agreement.

Moelis suggests recent exploration results, combined with the company’s strategic positioning, provide a solid foundation for meaningful value realisation over the medium term.

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