Technicals | Jul 09 2025
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
Post the Nasdaq100’s surge higher on the 12th of May, we have been working with the view that the rally in the Nasdaq100 from the 21st of April 17,592 low is a Wave iii (Elliott Wave) that should be followed by a Wave iv pullback.
The rebound in late June from our key 21,500/450ish support zone opened the way for the Nasdaq to push to record highs and for the Wave iii to extend towards weekly trend channel resistance at 23,200ish.
A sustained break of short-term support at 22,350 would be an indication that the Wave iii is complete and that a Wave iv pullback is underway.
The initial target for the Wave iv is a band of support near 22,000 with a sustained break of this level opening the way for a deeper Wave iv decline towards wave equality support at 21,200.
ASX200
The 2.5% pullback from the 8639-record high into the recent 8421.1 low helped the index work off overbought readings and was orderly which indicates the move lower was likely part of a correction rather than the start of an impulsive move lower.
In summary, providing the ASX200 holds above support at 8420/8400 (sustained basis as always), the view is the correction from the 8639 high is complete at the 8421.1 low and that a retest and break of the 8639 high will likely be forthcoming, before a push to 8800.
Aware that a sustained break of support at 8420/00 would indicate a pullback towards the 200-day moving average at 8250ish is underway.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished higher overnight at US$68.18 (0.38%) bolstered by two Houthi attacks on shipping yesterday in the Red Sea and reports the US crude oil production will be less than expected this year.
Providing crude oil remains above key support at US$65/64, the hopes for a bounce back into the low US$70s remain alive.
A break of support at US$65/64 likely opens the way for crude oil to move back toward the US$60 support area.
Gold
Gold finished lower overnight at US$3301 (-0.01%), as safe haven flows eased on hopes that the countries impact by President Trumps new tariff rates can reach trade deals before the August 1 deadline.
Gold also came under pressure from a fifth day of gains in US yields.
Gold needs to hold above uptrend support at US$3280ish and above the recent US$3244 low to maintain its potential to retest the US$3,500 high.
Otherwise, it risks a deeper setback towards US$3120/00/oz.
Technical limitations
If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.
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