Weekly Reports | Jul 22 2025
This story features PALADIN ENERGY LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDN
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS
A decline in the U308 spot price belies interest emerging from utilities in the mid to long-term delivery windows to shore up supply security.
-Pennsylvania and Westinghouse push forward with nuclear energy for AI data centres
-U308 spot price softens but utilities have re-emerged seeking requests for proposals
-Uranium demand outlook increasingly linked to technology and AI
-Stocks in focus this week while short interests reverse course
By Danielle Ecuyer
Energy for AI-driven demand for data centres continues
From a macro perspective, it was a big week for the US nuclear energy industry. While discussions hinted at Pennsylvania becoming an AI-energy hub, last week President Trump attended an inaugural Energy and Innovation Summit in Pittsburgh, which was held at Carnegie Mellon University and is aimed at positioning the state as an AI leader.
Between US$90bn-US$100bn in private investment was announced for AI, data centres, and energy infrastructure using nuclear energy alongside coal, gas, and hydropower.
Westinghouse also announced plans to build ten large nuclear reactors in the US, with its AP1000 reactor capable of generating enough electricity to power more than 750k homes. Ten such reactors would underpin US$75bn in value across the US, with US$6bn to be invested in Pennsylvania.
In the last thirty years, the US has built two new reactors, both of which were Westinghouse AP1000s at Plant Vogtle in Washington, Georgia. That project was delivered seven years behind schedule and US$18bn over budget.
Google Cloud and Westinghouse are collaborating on AI applications to transform the construction of advanced reactors into an “efficient, repeatable process” and enhance operations of existing nuclear power plants using data-driven insights.
Utilities’ requests for proposals take a step up
Utilities have re-entered the U3O8 mid- and long-term delivery windows, as highlighted by industry consultants TradeTech. A formal Request for Proposals for 400klbs U3O8 per annum between 2029 and 2033, with an optional 300klbs U3O8 annually between 2034 and 2036, was placed. Offers are due by July 31.
Another US utility is seeking 50k to 200klbs per annum of U3O8 between 2028 and 2031 and is evaluating offers, while another has a due date of July 22 for offers of 500klbs for delivery between 2029 and 2033.
These proposals come amidst a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions with President Trump threatening tariffs on Russia and potential supply issues from Niger and Kazakhstan, against rising demand for energy and security.
The TradeTech U3O8 spot price indicator slipped by -US$1/lb last week to US$71/lb, bringing the decline to -9.7% from the 2025 high of US$78.65/lb on June 27.
The spot price is down -15.5% from the prior year and down -6.6% since the start of 2025.
Three transactions were undertaken in the spot market: one early last week for 100klbs for July delivery to Cameco’s Canadian facility; another on Thursday for 50klbs for delivery at Orano’s Comurhex facility in France; and another 100klbs at US$71/lb for Cameco in July.
TradeTech’s U3O8 Mid-term price indicator is US$83/lb and Long-term price indicator is US$80/lb.
Australian uranium stocks remain in focus
RBC Capital’s June quarter review emphasised the positive impact of Sprott Physical Uranium Trust’s (SPUT) US$200m equity raising and the rally in the U3O8 spot price of almost 10%.
A resulting rally in Paladin Energy’s ((PDN)) share price realised a gain of more than 67%, with Boss Energy’s ((BOE)) gain over 96%.
RBC continues to envisage a floor in U3O8 prices in the low-mid US$70/lb due to the “carry-trade economics” and risks associated with supply from Kazakhstan and Niger.
In terms of stocks, Boss continues to be the broker’s preferred pick in the sector because of its low-cost production and improved confidence in production ramp-up over the next year. RBC believes consensus expectations are too low for volumes to decline by -6%, given Boss has already guided to production rates for both Honeymoon and Alta Mesa.
At the upcoming June quarter update, management is expected to confirm construction of the three final NIMCIX columns at Honeymoon, with commissioning for the end of 2025. RBC forecasts peak production rates by the end of FY26 and has raised its target price to $3.90. Its rating is Sector Perform.
Paladin’s production volumes are forecast to grow 7% in the June quarter on the prior quarter at Langer Heinrich to 796klbs, which sits above consensus at 791klbs due to higher ore grade from the G-pit. Cost of production is also anticipated to rise 12% over the quarter to US$45/lb from re-starting of activities in the G-pit. Target price has risen to $7.25.
Paladin’s June quarter report is due on July 23 and Boss’ on July 25.
Paladin was also in focus for Bell Potter this week. This analyst believes the stock will re-rate over the coming quarters, as the business shakes off negative earnings sentiment lingering throughout FY25.
Paladin’s 4QFY25 result will be closely watched for mill performance on blended ore, any contract disruptions, and updated production and cost guidance for FY26.
Bell Potter forecasts 0.8mlbs production (up 6% quarter-on-quarter) and 0.7mlbs in sales, noting consensus expectations are likely conservative given recent operating headwinds, which creates scope for a ‘beat’.
The achieved uranium price is likely to retreat slightly due to flexing under the CNNC spot-linked contract. There is an offtake agreement between Paladin and China National Nuclear Corporation.
The CEO transition is viewed positively, with incoming Paul Hemburrow seen as well-placed to lead Langer Heinrich through its next development phase. Target price is raised to $9.20 from $6.50. The stock is rated Buy.
Macquarie’s equity strategy update adopted a more “constructive” view on equities, including the addition of Paladin to the model portfolio under Tech/AI exposure, alongside a Buy-equivalent rating and $8.45 target.
More broker updates
Ord Minnett notes Lotus Resources ((LOT)) continues to progress towards the restart of Kayelekera, with first U3O8 production still flagged for the September 2025 quarter and mining to commence in the December quarter.
The miner has less reliance on stockpiles than Paladin, the broker points out.
The company remains well capitalised with US$77m of cash, which is more than the broker’s forecast of US$41m, with less cash employed in the June quarter than previously guided by management. The analyst suspects some capex spend has been deferred.
Ord Minnett now anticipates peak capex in the September quarter at -US$30m for the re-start. Lotus is Speculative Buy rated with a 36c target price, down from 37c.
Bell Potter pointed to the start of hot commissioning at the Kayelekera Mill, with mineralised waste ore running through the crushing and semi-autogenous grinding (SAG) circuits.
The next stages include commissioning the elution, precipitation, drying and packaging circuits, ahead of first U3O8 production targeted for the September quarter.
Stockpiled ore will be used initially, with fresh ore processing expected to begin by mid-September. The cash balance was US$77.3m at June-end, with US$48.5m in working capital facilities and a US$15m unsecured loan undrawn.
Bell Potter retains a Buy (Speculative) rating and 35c target believing the market remains sceptical but sees a successful restart as a catalyst for re-rating.
Bannerman Energy ((BMN)) raised $85m in equity via a $3.20 share placement to support construction at Etango, with first production targeted for 2027 and a final investment decision later in 2025.
Shaw and Partners noted early works are progressing in line with budget, including infrastructure installation and advancement on the heap leach pad and process plant design. Long-lead equipment also remains on schedule.
Shaw supports Bannerman’s cautious development strategy, noting the company is avoiding premature contracting or debt financing while uranium term prices remain below long-term expectations.
With a $140m cash position and only $23m in residual early works commitments, management is well positioned to continue project development and benefit from future sector tailwinds, suggest the analysts.
Shaw retains a Buy rating and a $4.70 target price.
Short interests start to creep up
As of July 10, ASIC’s updated short report showed Paladin remains the number one most shorted stock on the ASX, with Boss in second place. Short positions sat at 16.84% (up from 16.37%) and 14.63% (up from 13.47%), respectively.
Deep Yellow Energy ((DYL)) sits in thirteenth place at 8.68% (up from 8.4%) and Lotus in fourteenth place at 8.30% (up from 7.88%).
Maybe the hedge funds are keen to reposition now that Sprott has almost completed its U308 spot inventory purchases?
Uranium companies listed on the ASX:
| ASX CODE | DATE | LAST PRICE | WEEKLY % MOVE | 52WK HIGH | 52WK LOW | P/E | CONSENSUS TARGET | UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AE | 18/07/2025 | 0.0500 | 0.00% | $0.08 | $0.03 | |||
| AEE | 18/07/2025 | 0.1700 | 0.00% | $0.19 | $0.10 | |||
| AGE | 18/07/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.05 | $0.02 | $0.070 |  250.0% |
|
| AKN | 18/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| ASN | 18/07/2025 | 0.1100 | 42.86% |
$0.13 | $0.04 | |||
| BKY | 18/07/2025 | 0.5700 | 3.64% |
$0.67 | $0.30 | |||
| BMN | 18/07/2025 | 2.9500 | 3.96% |
$3.68 | $1.76 | $4.700 | 59.3% |
|
| BOE | 18/07/2025 | 3.7900 | 5.90% |
$4.75 | $1.99 | 220.1 | $3.894 | 2.8% |
| BSN | 18/07/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.01 | |||
| C29 | 18/07/2025 | 0.0200 | 0.00% | $0.13 | $0.01 | |||
| CXO | 18/07/2025 | 0.1100 | 0.00% | $0.14 | $0.06 | $0.110 | ||
| CXU | 18/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.03 | $0.01 | |||
| DEV | 18/07/2025 | 0.0900 |  -11.11% |
$0.28 | $0.07 | |||
| DYL | 18/07/2025 | 1.8200 | 8.33% |
$1.87 | $0.75 | -354.0 | $1.807 | – 0.7% |
| EL8 | 18/07/2025 | 0.2700 | – 3.70% |
$0.42 | $0.19 | |||
| ERA | 18/07/2025 | 0.0020 | 0.00% | $0.04 | $0.00 | |||
| GLA | 18/07/2025 | 0.0100 | 0.00% | $0.02 | $0.01 | |||
| GTR | 18/07/2025 | 0.0040 | 0.00% | $0.01 | $0.00 | |||
| GUE | 18/07/2025 | 0.0700 | 16.67% |
$0.10 | $0.05 | |||
| HAR | 18/07/2025 | 0.0800 | 0.00% | $0.09 | $0.03 | |||
| I88 | 18/07/2025 | 0.1100 | 22.22% |
$0.80 | $0.08 | |||
| KOB | 18/07/2025 | 0.0300 | 0.00% | $0.18 | $0.03 | |||
| LAM | 18/07/2025 | 0.8200 | – 5.88% |
$0.90 | $0.48 | |||
| LOT | 18/07/2025 | 0.1800 | 0.00% | $0.32 | $0.13 | $0.328 | 81.9% |
|
| MEU | 18/07/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.06 | $0.03 | |||
| NXG | 18/07/2025 | 10.6800 | 5.32% |
$13.53 | $6.44 | $12.925 | 21.0% |
|
| ORP | 18/07/2025 | 0.0400 | 0.00% | $0.07 | $0.02 | |||
| PDN | 18/07/2025 | 8.0200 | 9.68% |
$13.27 | $3.93 | -215.5 | $8.921 | 11.2% |
| PEN | 18/07/2025 | 0.6200 | 0.00% | $2.20 | $0.55 | $1.000 | 61.3% |
|
| SLX | 18/07/2025 | 4.2900 | 4.56% |
$6.62 | $2.28 | $6.500 | 51.5% |
|
| TOE | 18/07/2025 | 0.2000 | 10.53% |
$0.36 | $0.15 | |||
| WCN | 18/07/2025 | 0.0300 | 50.00% |
$0.04 | $0.01 |
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