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Tuesday, the 29th of July at 4.30pm.
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Extreme Bifurcation Ahead Of August
There was a time when 13.80% total return for the financial year would be welcomed by all and sundry as a pleasant outcome, but not so in mid-2025 when the strong rally in CommBank ((CBA)) shares has been responsible for 38% of those returns.
Prospects for CommBank and the broader bank sector in general have improved throughout the year, but only slightly so. As the share price rallied and kept on rising (up 22% in the June quarter alone) pushing the implied forward-looking dividend yield to a paltry 2.8%, many domestic shareholders have been selling their exposure.
The rise and rise of CommBank relative to the rest of the ASX200 (now weighing 12% of the index) has triggered lively debates among Australian investors, and still does.
Some investors have sold exposure and recycled the proceeds into other, cheaper-priced major bank shares, but UBS for one doesn't think this will prove the best protection against CBA's coming back to earth - something that surely must happen at some point?
Whatever will pull back the CommBank share price is likely going to be a sector-wide impact, UBS suggested a few weeks ago. Meaning: it'll impact the rest of the sector too, in all likelihood.
Indeed, share prices in financials broadly, and in banks specifically, have performed well in FY25 with three major banks ending up in the Top Five of highest contributions for the index since mid last year.
CommBank shares simply outclassed everyone and everything with a total return of... wait for it... 49.8%, adding more than three times more to index gains than number two, Westpac ((WBC)).
As to whom is responsible, the second half of last year featured steady buying orders from superannuation funds while in 2025 large US institutions seeking shelter from potential US tariff impacts have compensated for local sellers.
For more background, investors might revisit some of FNArena's recent background stories and explanations:
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/07/18/in-brief-sks-technologies-banks-qpm-energy/
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/06/10/geopolitical-hedging-a-boon-for-commbank/
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