Rudi's View | Jul 24 2025
In today's edition:
-Ask FNArena
-Review All-Weather Model Portfolio
-Recent Updates On Expert Views
-Best Buys & Conviction Calls
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor
Ask FNArena
FNArena's pre-August online Q&A over Zoom will take place on Tuesday, the 29th of July at 4.30pm.
To join, use the following link: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/87384243239
Your Editor will be ready to answer your questions.
We welcome questions in advance though there will be opportunity to ask on the day and during the session.
A video recording to view and listen afterwards will be made available.
Send your questions to Editor@fnarena.com
Review All-Weather Model Portfolio
The financial year ending on June 30th 2025 featured the return of Donald Trump in the White House and of extreme market volatility.
The second half of the year also saw doubt creeping into general sentiment towards AI and demand for data centres.
All in all, a gain of 13.85% (pre-fees) for the twelve months is not something to be unhappy about, right?
FY25 review of the All-Weather Model Portfolio: https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/download-article/?n=4B38C0EF-A173-8CE6-736A7AFC7B19FC49
Recent Updates On Expert Views
Share markets have not been equally kind to smaller caps, cyclicals and lower-quality business models since, let's call it, 2014.
But nothing is necessarily forever, right? Morgan Stanley recently offered the following on this matter:
"(...) we don’t think that American Exceptionalism is necessarily over. But we do think a new investment regime is approaching.
"If American Exceptionalism was premised on tailwinds like negative real interest rates and outsized policy accommodation, we think that’s now being supplanted by an economy facing constraints and radical imbalances.
"Specifically, we’re likely to see a new setup characterized by higher real rates, positive term and risk premiums, greater volatility and a much weaker dollar.
"A new regime likely calls for a new kind of portfolio. For one thing, investors should be thinking about more comprehensive diversification across sectors, asset classes and geographies.
"We’re likely to see relative value outside of the US, with potentially attractive opportunities in countries like India, Japan, Brazil and Mexico.
"Global yield dynamics may also foster opportunities among global financials and other cyclical industries like energy, materials and industrials."
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Strategists at Bell Potter offered the following prediction for the local share market:
"An easing monetary policy, along with supportive fiscal policy, is a positive backdrop for Australian equity markets where both growth and value can perform.
"What it does mean, however, is that we remain convicted in our view that the current environment requires a “Micro over Macro” approach.
"This is not a rising tide that lifts all boats market; stock selection will be important in delivering returns."
And also:
"High-quality businesses will still likely be able to grow earnings in excess of GDP growth. This is particularly true in the Industrials (Ex-Financials) part of the market."
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