Rudi’s View: Bega Cheese, Cettire, Harvey Norman, Sigma, SiteMinder & More

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In today's edition:

-Ask FNArena
-Review All-Weather Model Portfolio
-Recent Updates On Expert Views
-Best Buys & Conviction Calls

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor

Ask FNArena

FNArena’s pre-August online Q&A over Zoom will take place on Tuesday, the 29th of July at 4.30pm.

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We welcome questions in advance though there will be opportunity to ask on the day and during the session.

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Send your questions to Editor@fnarena.com

Review All-Weather Model Portfolio

The financial year ending on June 30th 2025 featured the return of Donald Trump in the White House and of extreme market volatility.

The second half of the year also saw doubt creeping into general sentiment towards AI and demand for data centres.

All in all, a gain of 13.85% (pre-fees) for the twelve months is not something to be unhappy about, right?

FY25 review of the All-Weather Model Portfolio: https://www.fnarena.com/index.php/download-article/?n=4B38C0EF-A173-8CE6-736A7AFC7B19FC49

Recent Updates On Expert Views

Share markets have not been equally kind to smaller caps, cyclicals and lower-quality business models since, let’s call it, 2014.

But nothing is necessarily forever, right? Morgan Stanley recently offered the following on this matter:

“(…) we don’t think that American Exceptionalism is necessarily over. But we do think a new investment regime is approaching.

“Global yield dynamics may also foster opportunities among global financials and other cyclical industries like energy, materials and industrials.”

****

Strategists at Bell Potter offered the following prediction for the local share market:

“An easing monetary policy, along with supportive fiscal policy, is a positive backdrop for Australian equity markets where both growth and value can perform.

“This is not a rising tide that lifts all boats market; stock selection will be important in delivering returns.”

And also:

“High-quality businesses will still likely be able to grow earnings in excess of GDP growth. This is particularly true in the Industrials (Ex-Financials) part of the market.”

****

Wilsons’ Model Portfolio has increased its exposure to Sandfire Resources ((SFR)) and downgraded the weighting of Macquarie Group ((MQG)).

****

Macquarie sees an improving outlook for consumer spending on the horizon, but share prices appear to be already priced for it.

Macquarie’s Key Picks among consumer stocks in Australia are Coles Group ((COL)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Bega Cheese ((BGA)).

The broker would buy shares in JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)) and Metcash ((MTS)) following share price weakness.

Best to avoid, according to this broker, are Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)) and Endeavour Group ((EDV)).

****

Citi’s top picks in discretionary retail are JB Hi-Fi ((JBH)), Harvey Norman ((HVN)) and Super Retail ((SUL)).

****

Previewing August results, UBS analysts have nominated their key preferences among A-REITs, all are Buy-rated: Goodman Group ((GMG)), Dexus ((DXS)), Lifestyle Communities ((LIC)), HMC Capital ((HMC)), Centuria Industrial REIT ((CIP)), National Storage ((NSR)) and BWP Trust ((BWP)).

Least preferred are Vicinity Centres ((VCX)) and Charter Hall ((CHC)) –both are Sell-rated– as well as Neutral-rated Centuria Office REIT ((COF)), Centuria Capital Group ((CNI)), Stockland ((SGP)), Mirvac Group ((MGR)) and Region Group ((RGN)).

****

Analysts at RBC Capital are also looking forward to August. Their Top Picks among small cap industrial companies in Australia are Temple & Webster ((TPW)), SiteMinder ((SDR)) and Hub24 ((HUB)).

Only two stocks under their coverage are currently rated Underweight; Cettire ((CTT)) and Lovisa Holdings ((LOV)).

Over at the Technology desk, RBC Capital analysts have selected NextDC ((NXT)) and Macquarie Technology ((MAQ)) as their two Key Picks.

****

Bell Potter‘s update on the REITs sector showed the following Buy ratings:

-Aspen Group ((APZ))
-Centuria Industrial REIT ((CIP))
-Cedar Woods Properties ((CWP))
-Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXC))
-GDI Property Group ((GDI))
-Goodman Group ((GMG)), fresh initiation of coverage
-HealthCo Healthcare and Wellness REIT ((HCW))
-HMC Capital ((HMC))
-Region Group ((RGN))

Best Buys & Conviction Calls

Bell Potter‘s Buy-rated ASX-listed agricultural stocks:

-Australian Agricultural Company ((AAC))
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Elders ((ELD))
-Noumi Ltd ((NOU))
-Nufarm ((NUF))
-Rural Funds ((RFF))
-Select Harvests ((SHV))

Bell Potter’s sector preferences for the financial year ahead.

Listed Investment Companies ((LICs)
-Australian Foundation Investment Company ((AFI))
-Metrics Master Income Trust ((MXT))
-MFF Capital Investments ((MFF))

Agricultural & Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG)
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Rural Funds Group ((RFF))
-Elders ((ELD))

Technology
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Gentrack ((GTK))
-Seek ((SEK))

Diversified Financials
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Praemium ((PPS))
-Regal Partners ((RPL))

Real Estate
-Aspen Group ((APZ))
-Cedar Woods ((CWP))
-Region Group ((RGN))

Retail
-JB Hi-Fi ((JBH))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Propel Funeral Partners ((PFP))

Industrials
-LGI Ltd ((LGI))
-Environmental Group ((EGL))

Healthcare
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-Neuren Pharmaceuticals ((NEU))
-Monash IVF ((MVF))

Gold
-Minerals 260 ((MI6))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))

Base Metals
-Aeris Resources ((AIS))
-Nickel Industries ((NIC))
-AIC Mines ((A1M))

Strategic Minerals & Processing Technologies
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-IperionX ((IPX))

Energy
-Boss Energy ((BOE))

Mining & Industrial Services
-Develop Global ((DVP))
-ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
-Duratec ((DUR))

****

favourites inside the local small cap retail space (in order of preference) as selected by Retail sector analysts at Citi:

-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Baby Bunting ((BBY))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-Beacon Lighting ((BLX))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Accent Group ((AX1))
-Super Retail ((SUL))
-Premier Investments ((PMV))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))

****

Crestone’s Best Sector Ideas:

-Ampol ((ALD))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Monadelphous Group ((MND))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Crestone’s selection for sustainable income:

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Ampol ((ALD))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-APA Group ((APA))
-Atlas Arteria ((ALX))
-Beach Energy ((BPT))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
-Iress ((IRE))
-Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Metcash ((MTS))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Pro Medicus ((PME))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-RAM Essential Services ((REP))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Tabcorp Holdings ((TAH))
-Telstra Group ((TLS))

****

Goldman Sachs‘ selection of local Conviction Buys:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Worley ((WOR))

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield ((URW)) is also included for its Paris listing with the local listing about to disappear.

****

Jarden’s 18 Best Ideas among Australia’s small caps (“emerging companies”) includes the following Key Picks considered offering the highest potential return, in order of projected total investment reward:

-GQG Partners ((GQG))
-Dicker Data ((DDR))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-EVT Ltd ((EVT))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

The other ten stocks selected:

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Arena REIT ((ARF))
-Genesis Energy ((GNE))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Karoon Energy ((KAR))
-Michael Hill ((MHJ))
-Pepper Money ((PPM))
-Symal Group ((SYL))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))

****

Macquarie‘s small caps desk nominated its favourites (Best Picks) ahead of the August results season.

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Amotiv ((AOV))
-AUB Group ((AUB))
-Alpha HPA ((A4N))
-Bega Cheese ((BGA))
-Capstone Copper ((CSC))
-Codan ((CDA))
-Genesis Minerals ((GMD))
-Iluka Resources ((ILU))
-Integral Diagnostics ((IDX))
-Harvey Norman ((HVN))
-Jumbo Interactive ((JIN))
-Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Megaport (( MP1))
-Monadelphous ((MND))
-Neuren ((NEU))
-Nick Scali ((NCK))
-oOh!media ((OML))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-Qualitas ((QAL))
-Reliance Worldwide ((RWC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Summit Minerals ((SUM))
-Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
-Ventia Services ((VNT))
-Web Travel Group ((WEB))

****

Morgans‘ selection of Best Ideas consists of the following 29 ASX-listed companies:

Acrow ((ACF))
ALS Ltd ((ALQ))
Amotiv ((AOV))
BHP Group ((BHP))
Collins Foods ((CKF))
Corporate Travel Management ((CTD))
CSL ((CSL))
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure ((DBI))
Dexus Convenience Retail REIT ((DXC))
DigiCo Infrastructure REIT ((DGT))
EBR Systems ((EBR))
Elders ((ELD))
Goodman Group ((GMG))
Guzman y Gomez ((GYG))
James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
Light & Wonder ((LNW))
Lovisa Holdings ((LOV))
MA Financial Group ((MAF))
Megaport ((MP1))
Orica ((ORI))
Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
ResMed ((RMD))
South32 ((S32))
Treasury Wine Estates ((TWE))
Qualitas ((QAL))
Universal Store Holdings ((UNI))
Whitehaven Coal ((WHC))
WiseTech Global ((WTC))
Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morgan Stanley’s six Conviction stock picks that each represent a compelling individual investment case underpinned by idiosyncratic drivers and the ability to deliver earnings upside, believed to be underappreciated by the market.

-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Life360 Inc ((360))
-Generation Development Group ((GDG))
-Data#3 ((DTL))

Morgan Stanley’s Macro+ Focus List in Australia is currently made up of:

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-James Hardie Industries ((JHX))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Santos ((STO))
-Suncorp Group ((SUN))
-Xero ((XRO))

Morgan Stanley’s Australia Macro+ Model Portfolio is currently made up of the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-National Australia Bank ((NAB))
-Westpac ((WBC))

-Macquarie Group ((MQG))

-Suncorp Group ((SUN))

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-GPT Group ((GPT))
-Scentre Group ((SCG))
-Stockland ((STG))

-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-Eagers Automotive ((APE))
-CAR Group ((CAR))
-Domino’s Pizza ((DMP))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Wesfarmers ((WES))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Xero ((XRO))

-James Hardie ((JHX))

-Amcor ((AMC))
-Cleanaway Waste Management ((CWY))
-Orica ((ORI))

-Coles Group ((COL))

-CSL ((CSL))
-ResMed ((RMD))

-AGL Energy ((AGL))
-Telstra ((TLS))
-Transurban ((TCL))

-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Rio Tinto ((RIO))
-South32 ((S32))

-Santos ((STO))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Morningstar’s Equity Best Ideas (Conviction Buy Calls by any other name, mostly chosen because of under-valuation).

-Auckland International Airport ((AIA))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-Bapcor ((BAP))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Domino’s Pizza Enterprises ((DMP))
-Endeavour Group ((EDV))
-Fineos Corp ((FCL))
-IDP Education ((IEL))
-IGO Ltd ((IGO))
-Ramsay Health Care ((RHC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Spark New Zealand ((SPK))
-Woodside Energy ((WDS))

****

Ord Minnett’s High Conviction calls (all nominations made by sector analysts on a 12 month horizon):

-Aussie Broadband ((ABB))
-Brazilian Rare Earths ((BRE))
-Bubs Australia ((BUB))
-Cuscal ((CCL))
-Qoria ((QOR))
-Regis Healthcare ((REG))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))
-Vault Minerals ((VAU))
-Waypoint REIT ((WPR))
-Zip Co ((ZIP))

****

Shaw and Partners’ Large Caps Model Portfolio:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-South32 ((S32))

Shaw and Partners’ emerging companies Top Picks:

-AML3D ((AL3))
-Australian Vanadium ((AVL))
-Bannerman Energy ((BMN))
-Chrysos ((C79))
-Humm Group ((HUM))
-Metro Mining ((MMI))
-Santana Minerals ((SMI))
-Southern Cross Electrical ((SXE))

****

UBS’s Most Preferred Stocks in Australia

In Resources segment:
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-BlueScope Steel ((BSL))
-Newmont Corp ((NEM))
-Orica ((ORI))
-Origin Energy ((ORG))

Among Financials & A-REITs:
-Dexus ((DXS))
-Lifestyle Communities ((LIC))
-Mirvac Group ((MGR))
-Medibank Private ((MPL))
-QBE Insurance ((QBE))
-Steadfast Group ((SDF))

Among Industrials:
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-Cochlear ((COH))
-Coles Group ((COL))
-NextDC ((NXT))
-REA Group ((REA))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-SGH Ltd ((SGH))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telstra Corp ((TLS))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))

UBS’s Least Preferred Stocks in Australia

-Aurizon Holdings ((AZJ))
-ASX Ltd ((ASX))
-Bank of Queensland ((BOQ))
-CommBank ((CBA))
-Charter Hall Group ((CHC))
-Computershare ((CPU))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Temple & Webster ((TPW))

****

Wilsons‘ Key Investment Opportunities:

-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-Pinnacle Investment Management ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths ((WOW))

High conviction investment ideas:

-ARB Corp ((ARB))
-Maas Group ((MGH))
-Nanosonics ((NAN))
-Ridley Corp ((RIC))
-SiteMinder ((SDR))

Speculative idea:

-Clarity Pharmaceuticals ((CU6))

Wilsons’ Focus Portfolio currently contains the following:

-ANZ Bank ((ANZ))
-Aristocrat Leisure ((ALL))
-BHP Group ((BHP))
-Brambles ((BXB))
-Car Group ((CAR))
-Collins Foods ((CKF))
-CSL ((CSL))
-Evolution Mining ((EVN))
-Goodman Group ((GMG))
-HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT ((HCW))
-Hub24 ((HUB))
-James Hardie ((JHX))
-Macquarie Group ((MQG))
-Northern Star Resources ((NST))
-Pinnacle Investment Managers ((PNI))
-ResMed ((RMD))
-Sandfire Resources ((SFR))
-Santos ((STO))
-South32 ((S32))
-TechnologyOne ((TNE))
-Telix Pharmaceuticals ((TLX))
-The Lottery Corp ((TLC))
-Westpac Bank ((WBC))
-WiseTech Global ((WTC))
-Woolworths Group ((WOW))
-Worley ((WOR))
-Xero ((XRO))

Paying subscribers have 24/7 access to my curated lists, including All-Weather Performers at: https://fnarena.com/index.php/analysis-data/all-weather-stocks/

(Do note that, in line with all my analyses, appearances and presentations, all of the above names and calculations are provided for educational purposes only. Investors should always consult with their licensed investment advisor first, before making any decisions.)  

P.S. I – All paying members at FNArena are being reminded they can set an email alert for my Rudi’s View stories. Go to My Alerts (top bar of the website) and tick the box in front of ‘Rudi’s View’. You will receive an email alert every time a new Rudi’s View story has been published on the website. 

P.S. II – If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.

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