Technicals | Jul 30 2025
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
By Tony Sycamore
First Up, Nasdaq100
Post the Nasdaq100’s surge higher on the 12th of May, we have been working with the view that the rally in the Nasdaq100 from the 21st of April 17,592 low is a Wave iii (Elliott Wave) and once its complete, it should be followed by a Wave iv pullback.
The rebound in late June from our key 21,500/450ish support zone opened the way for the Nasdaq (Wave iii) to push to record highs and to test strong weekly trend channel resistance now at 23,400/500ish viewed on the chart below.
We do expect this weekly resistance level to at least stall the Nasdaq100’s recent gains and note a deeper pullback from this resistance level is considered a strong possibility. An initial indication that Wave is completed and that a Wave iv pullback is underway would be a sustained break of support at 23,000/22,900.
The initial target for the Wave iv is a band of support near 22,200/22,000 coming from former record highs, with a sustained break of this level opening the way for a deeper Wave iv decline towards support at 21,500/300.
ASX200
After a test of the 8530/10 support zone in Mid-July, the ASX200 regrouped, and spring boarded to a fresh record high of 8776.4.
Providing the ASX200 holds above short-term support at 8620/00ish coming from previous record highs, we expect it to extend its gains towards 8850.
Aware that a daily close below 8600 would be initial warning that the move to the 8776.4 high was a false break higher and that a retest of the late June 8420 low is underway.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished higher overnight at US$69.25/bbl (+3.39%), for a two-day gain of 6.5% as volatility and geopolitical risk premium made a loud return to the crude oil market.
This came after US President Trump announced earlier this week, he would shorten the 50-day deadline he gave Russia to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine to 10-12 days.
Following which, 100% secondary tariffs are likely to be implemented on buyers of Russian crude oil, which would aggravate supply concerns.
If crude oil can break above the top of its five week US$64-US$70 range, the next stop would be the US$72.28 high from early April, before US$75.00/bbl.
Gold
Gold finished higher overnight at US$3326/oz (0.37%) boosted by the rise US- Russian geopolitical tensions outlined in the crude oil section above.
Gold’s rejection of the US$3435/50 resistance area has extended below uptrend support at US$3330 coming from the February low of US$2832.
This warns of downside risks towards the US$3245 support area coming from June-July range lows unless gold can reclaim trendline support now at US$3350ish.
Technical limitations
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