In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 08-08-25

Weekly Reports | Aug 08 2025

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

GREATLAND RESOURCES LIMITED ((GGP)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Greatland Resources' June quarter production report broadly met Moelis' forecast as previously noted but FY26 guidance was softer.

The broker cut its production forecast for FY26 to 288.6koz from 312.6koz vs guidance of 260-310koz, and raised cost forecast to $2,550/oz from $2,517/oz before.

Target cut to $7.10 from $7.50. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold, with the broker believing the share price fall on FY26 outlook is overdone. 

PEXA GROUP LIMITED ((PXA)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden raises its target for Pexa Group to $17.75 from $16.20 and upgrades to Overweight from Neutral.

The broker views NatWest’s onboarding as a critical milestone, confirming PEXA’s UK platform viability and likely triggering broader adoption among banks and conveyancers.

Jarden estimates the UK market is approximately 2.4 times the size of Australia’s and sees PEXA well placed to secure material share.

While there is some renewed risk around Australian interoperability regulation, the analyst believes the UK upside more than compensates.

Downgrade

TPG TELECOM LIMITED ((TPG)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Management at TPG Telecom announced $1.61 per share capital return from the $4.7bn EG&W asset sale, exceeding Jarden's expectations and supporting balance sheet repair and free float expansion.

The broker expects minority shareholders will participate in a $688m reinvestment plan.

Jarden assumes full uptake, implying 186m new shares issued, though delays in reinvestment details and a softer operational update have prompted a downgrade to Neutral from Overweight.

Postpaid subscriber net adds in 1H25 were weak, according to the analysts, (up 15k versus consensus 70k). Average revenue per user (ARPU) growth is expected to be 2H-weighted as back book repricing flows through.

The broker's target price is reduced to $5.30 from $5.50.


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