Technicals | 11:00 AM
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
By Tony Sycamore
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
Since the Nasdaq100’s surge higher on May 12th, we have been working with the view that the rally from the April 21st low of 17,592 is a Wave iii (Elliott Wave).
Once the Wave iii is complete, it should be followed by a Wave iv correction.
The signs of upside rejection from the weekly trend channel viewed two weeks ago have largely been negated by last week’s strong rally which took the Nasdaq to new highs.
As we approach the end of the week, the focus will be on whether the Nasdaq100 can see a sustained break above weekly trend channel resistance of if it will once again stall the Nasdaq’s advance potentially setting up a Wave iv pullback.
ASX200
Following the ASX200’s push to fresh record highs and given the ASX200’s sensitivity to RBA rate cut expectations, we expect the ASX200 extend its gains towards the next upside target at 9000 in the weeks ahead.
This view is based upon the ASX200 remaining above support at 8630/10ish.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil finished lower overnight at US$63.08/bbl (-1.44%), marking its weakest close in over two months, despite last night’s US inflation report increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September, which would boost crude oil demand.
Overshadowing this, an unexpected 1.5-million-barrel rise in US inventories last week and the upcoming meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump on Friday, which, if successful, could lead to an end to the war in Ukraine, thereby easing supply concerns and alleviating US secondary tariff sanctions.
Technically, while crude remains below the critical US$65/64 resistance zone, the risks are that it extends its losses towards US$60.00/bbl.
Gold
Gold finished flattish modestly higher overnight at US$3348 (0.17%), after last night’s US inflation report increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.
A sustained break above recent range highs and trend line resistance at US$3430/50ish is needed to signal that a retest of the US$3500 record high is underway with scope towards US$3700/oz.
Technical limitations
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