In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 05-09-25

Weekly Reports | Sep 05 2025

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

ADAIRS LIMITED ((ADH)) Upgrade to Buy from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Adairs' FY25 EBIT of $55.2m came inside the guidance range, Jarden highlights, with EBIT for the Adairs brand at the top end, and Focus and Mocka at the middle of the range. Gross margin was up 70bps to 46.8% but missed the consensus.

Trading for the first seven weeks of FY26 was strong, with group sales up 22.6% y/y vs 5% consensus, and within that, Adairs and Mocka outperformed.

The broker sees upside risk from Mocka standalone concept via increasing addressable share of the furniture market, and notes Focus is making progress with cost reductions and refurbished stores.

FY26-28 revenue forecasts lifted by 4-8%, and EBITDA estimates increase by 8-17%.

Target rises to $2.96 from $2.07. Rating upgraded to Buy from Overweight.

LOVISA HOLDINGS LIMITED ((LOV)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden highlights tariff concerns as overestimated for Lovisa Holdings and upgrades the stock to Overweight from Neutral.

FY25 results reflected ongoing store rollouts and a robust trading update. The retailer managed to protect margins in 2H25 from tariffs, commentary highlights, with 2H US average store sales up 14% on the prior year and global sales up 6%.

Jarden raises its earnings (EBIT) estimates by 12%-21% for FY26-FY28, with net new store forecasts up to circa 130 p.a. and like-for-like sales upgrades of 75bps, as the analyst believes tariff concerns were overstated, as well as gross margin upgrades of 45bps.

Target price rises to $42.42 from $22.87.

NUIX LIMITED ((NXL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Nuix's FY25 revenue missed Moelis' forecast by -5% but that was due to lower proportion of multi-year deals which impacted upfront revenue recognition.

The miss was despite 8% y/y growth in Annualised Contract Value (ACV), though this was lower than the company's withdrawn 11-16% target. Expenses were higher reflecting less capitalisation and more direct expenses, leading to a net loss of -$9.2m.

The company is confident of its products, noting expansion of Nuix Neo in 2H, leading to revenue ending FY25 at $28.1m vs $12.1m in FY24. Two deals were annouced in early FY26, pushing ACV by another $2.5-4.5m.

The broker lifted FY26 net profit by 21% but no change to FY27.

Target lifted to $2.66 from $2.50. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

POLYNOVO LIMITED ((PNV)) Upgrade to Overweight from Market Weight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

PolyNovo's FY25 sales rose 29% y/y and met Wilsons' forecast, while EBITDA more than tripled to $11.2m, beating the broker's original forecast of $8.3m.

The broker notes MTX is emerging as a key growth driver, wth sales more than doubling in FY25 and estimated to double again in FY26. BTM performance was subdued, but the forecast is for 6% volume growth, with the ongoing PMA trial seen as a long-term catalyst.

The broker's revised forecast is for FY26 US sales of US$70m, up 23% in constant currency terms. Group forecasts are largely unchanged, but FY26 EBITDA forecast is upgraded by 4%.

Target unchanged at $1.62. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight, with the broker noting the stock is trading at a discount to DCF and historical multiples.

QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden highlights the key surprise from Qantas Airways' FY25 result was domestic yield growth, with the airline also guiding to 3-5% RASK (revenue per available seat km) growth in FY26. Underlying profit before tax of $2.39bn met expectations.

Jetstar domestic EBIT grew 55% y/y in FY25, with Jetstar International also outperforming at 54% y/y growth. The broker lifted Jetstar's FY26 EBIT forecast to $869m from $864m, and FY27 to $952m from $906m.

The broker notes the revenue environment looks strong and more than enough to offset the re-emergence of cost pressures in FY26.

The stock has shifted to a growth plus capital story, in the broker's view, from value recovery as most conditions are in place for a P/E re-rating beyond historical averages. 

Overall, the broker increased FY26 core EPS forecast by 3% and FY27 by 4%. Target rises to $12.90 from $10.20. Rating upgraded to Overweight from Neutral.

Downgrade

ARN MEDIA LIMITED ((A1N)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity describes ARN Media's 1H25 result as complicated, with the Hong Kong OOH (Cody Outdoor) business reclassified as discontinued (pending disposal) and the agency business Emotiv sold in May 2025.

The continuing Audio business materially underperformed peers, particularly in Metro and Regional Radio, despite digital growth. Revenue of $142.3m was down -7% y/y and missed the broker's forecast by -7%.

Gross margins improved and cost savings were substantial, but the broker trimmed FY25 EBITDA forecast by -14%. Revenue forecast was lowered by -7%.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target cut to 50c from 95c.

AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED ((ABB)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden regards Aussie Broadband's FY25 result as solid with some low and high quality positive surprises. Better cost/productivity discipline and divestment of Buddy were quoted among the positives.

A bigger positive was new 6-year wholesale agreement with M&T to provide NBN network services to More and Tangerine Telecom. The deal is expected to contribute $12m to underlying EBITDA from FY27.

The broker highlights improvement in FY26 earnings outlook but sees competitive intensity in residential broadband as a key risk to subscriber growth.

The broker upgraded FY26-28 underlying EBITDA forecasts mainly due to lower cost base following Symbio synergies and the Buddy exit. 

Target rises to $5.30 from $4.50. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Overweight.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Downgrade to Sell from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Bank of Queensland provided guidance for FY25 and withdrew the FY26 ROE target of 8% and 56% CTI , citing “highly unpredictable environment” and “accelerating headwinds." 

Jarden highlights the commentary is inconsistent with more constructive outlook from the bank's peers. Strategic initiatives were announced, including plan to sell up to $3.8bn of equipment finance book, and Capgemini partnership for outsourcing IT/AI and business processing.

The broker believes the loan portfolio sale is essentially short-term off-balance sheet financial engineering, which will boost near-term earnings but is a sign the funding base is not sustainably economic.

FY25 cash net profit guidance of $375-385m was in line with $378m consensus. The broker lifted FY25 EPS forecast by 1.4% on lower bad debt. FY26-27 EPS forecasts unchanged.

Target trimmed to $6.00 from $6.70. Rating downgraded to Sell from Underweight.

DATA#3 LIMITED. ((DTL)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons notes Data#3 delivered a solid set of numbers for FY25, with gross revenue meeting its forecast and the consensus. EBITDA was up 11% y/y with EBITDA margin widening by 40bps to 7.8%.

The broker notes the infrastructure segment returned to growth (+4% y/y vs -3% last year), but still comprises only 19% of group sales. 

Software which makes up two-thirds of revenue is expected to face a softer FY26 due to annualisation of Microsoft incentive payment changes.

The broker cut FY26-27 revenue forecasts by -3%. 

Target cut to $8.67 from $9.75. Rating downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight.

ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Endeavour Group's FY25 underlying net profit was in line with Jarden's forecast, but revenue missed by -2% and EBIT met. The broker describes the result as clean with over 100% cash conversion, highlighting strong financial discipline.

FY26 started on a weak note for retail with sales in the first 7 weeks down -1.3% y/y. However, the hotel segment fared better, up 4.4% y/y.

The broker believes a strategic reset, while disruptive, is what the company needs. Brand and format rationalisation, loyalty program consolidation, data monetisation, and category expansion could expand the total addressable market and unlock synergies.

The broker trimmed FY26 net profit forecast by -5% to reflect weaker 2H gross margin and higher cost of doing business.

Target cut to $3.90 from $4.20. Rating downgraded to Underweight from Neutral.

EVT LIMITED ((EVT)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades EVT Ltd to Overweight from Buy post FY25 net profit after tax, which came in lower than anticipated but beat consensus by 6% when tax-adjusted and by 11% after cyclone impacts.

Cinemas disappointed, notably in Germany, down around -5%, while Australia fell -4%.

The analyst lowers earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by around -3% to -11% for FY26-FY28, from revenue downgrades of -3% to -4%, with more conservative recovery assumptions adopted.

Target price slips to $16.34 from $18.70.

FINEOS CORPORATION HOLDINGS PLC ((FCL)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Fineos Corp advised it expects FY25 revenue to come at the lower end of the guidance range due to forex shifts and broader economic uncertainty.

The original revenue guidance was based on EUR/USD exchange rate of 1.0837, but the rate is now closer to 1.16, creating a revenue headwind.

Moelis notes the company is maintaining its strategic trajectory, and longer-term growth is dependent on new client acquisition and deeper penetration of large accounts.

The broker trimmed FY25 revenue forecast by -2.9% and EBITDA by -2.3%.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target $3.27.

FORTESCUE LIMITED ((FMG)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden downgrades Fortescue to Underweight from Neutral due to the stock's recent outperformance and valuation grounds.

The miner achieved what the analyst considers "operational excellence" in FY25, with record shipments and industry-leading costs. Momentum has been retained into FY26.

The analyst raises capital investment forecasts by 2%-4% for FY27-FY30, with only slight changes to other operating financial forecasts, resulting in an impact on EPS estimates, down -3% for FY26 and -2% for FY27.

Target slips to $16 from $16.25.

GQG PARTNERS INC ((GQG)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden described GQG Partners' 1H25 result as relatively robust but is concerned about the outlook due to investment underperformance and accelerating outflows.

Trends worsened into 2H with net outflows in July-August, posing downside risk to FUM assumptions, though the broker is hopeful flow momentum will reverse in line with historical trends.

Earnings risk is considered elevated from flows and performance.

In 1H25, net profit lagged the broker's forecast but was 1.5% ahead of consensus. Base management fees of 48.2bps were weaker than the consensus and the broker's estimate.

FY25 EPS forecast downgraded by -8% and FY26 by -19%. Target trimmed to $2.50 from $3.60. Rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy.

INTEGRAL DIAGNOSTICS LIMITED ((IDX)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons notes Integral Diagnostics' FY25 revenue rose 33% to $628m, missing its forecast by -1%. Revenue excluding Capitol Health grew only 7% to $501m, indicating organic growth lagged system growth.

EBITDA was up 37% to $127m, beating the broker's forecast by 4%, and net profit was ahead by 17%. The broker notes the 2H results drove the outperformance.

The company didn't provide quantitative guidance but highlighted expectations for revenue growth and expansion in underlying EBITDA margin over time. 

The broker revised forecasts to incorporate additional synergies from the merger and lifted group margin profile, resulting in a 10-21% increase in underlying EPS forecasts for FY26-27.

Target increases to $3.00 from $2.75. Rating downgraded to Market Weight from Overweight.

IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden assesses Imdex's FY25 result as slightly soft, with underlying EBITDA missing consensus by -1%. The positive was improved revenue momentum into 4Q25 suggesting acceleration late in the quarter.

The broker notes early ramp-up in drilling activity in response to elevated commodity prices may be underway but it remains cautious until sustained benefit to earnings is visible.

FY26 revenue growth of 9.6% is forecast and underlying EBITDA growth of 18.4%, pointing to operating leverage from higher revenue growth. However, net profit is expected to be dragged down by higher D&A expense and finance costs.

FY26 EPS forecast cut by -16% and FY27 by -12%.

Target rises to $2.75 from $2.55. Rating downgraded to Sell from Neutral on stretched valuations.

MADER GROUP LIMITED ((MAD)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Mader Group's FY25 results were in line with guidance and forecasts by Moelis, with revenue of $870m and profit of $57m.

Australia grew 17% on strong contributions from infrastructure, rail, and road, highlights the broker, while North America improved in the second half with 8% revenue growth and stable margins.

The group profit margin expanded to 6.6%, and a fully franked 4c dividend was declared.

Net debt fell to $8m from $23.2m in December, with the business on track for a net cash position within twelve months, suggests the analyst. Cash conversion of 101% supported $42.7m in operating cash flow, with cash of $24m at June end.

FY26 guidance targets at least $1bn in revenue and $65m profit, consistent with the five-year strategic plan, observes Moelis.

Moelis raises its target price to $8.29 from $6.83 reflecting stronger domestic momentum and higher utilisation of a growing workforce. and downgrades to a Hold rating from Buy.

MACQUARIE TECHNOLOGY GROUP LIMITED ((MAQ)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons downgrades its rating to Market Weight from Overweight and cuts the price target to $71.30 from $89.75.

The broker notes FY25 EBITDA of $113.6m (up 9%) was in line with forecasts, with Data Centres up 6% and Cloud & Government up 4%, while Telecom grew only 2%.

FY26 guidance for “marginal” EBITDA growth reflects a -$4m (-16%) fall in Telecom offsetting modest growth in Data Centres and Cloud, leaving group EBITDA essentially flat.

IC3 Super West remains on track for Sep-26 completion, but the analysts highlight no real scale contribution is expected until FY28, while Telecom will remain rebased.

Forecasts are revised lower with FY26–27 EBITDA cut by -6% to -10%.

MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED ((MVF)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons downgraded Monash IVF to Market Weight from Overweight and cut the target price to $0.72, a -20% discount to discounted cash flow, from $1.25. 

The combination of patient volume decline, market share losses, weak pricing power, and negative operating leverage leaves the outlook too uncertain for a positive recommendation, the broker notes. 

M&A potential at depressed multiples is a reason to hold, but near-term earnings risk dominates, the broker adds.

FY25 revenue rose 7% y/y, meeting the broker's forecast but missing the consensus. The company is guiding to net profit of $20-23m in FY26, which implies -21.5% lower y/y.

The broker downgraded its net profit forecast by -29% y/y to $19.6m.

PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED ((PLS)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden assesses Pilbara Minerals' FY25 result as better than expected, with reported EBITDA of $78m beating its $69m forecast. Below the EBITDA line, however, net loss was worse than expected due to higher D&A.

The broker is forecasting significantly higher D&A ahead, but notes it is non-cash and provides a greater tax shield.

The highlight was a recent spot sale for a small 5kt cargo for SC6 price 10% above the current spot of US$940/t. The company stated it received more enquiries, though the broker notes it is fully contracted for FY26.

The broker once again highlights the strong balance sheet, where the net cash position was $518m at the end of June. EBITDA forecast for FY26 lifted by 4% and by 2% for FY27.

Target unchanged at $2.20. Rating downgraded to Overweight from Buy.

READYTECH HOLDINGS LIMITED ((RDY)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons lowers its rating to Market Weight from Overweight and cuts its price target to $2.63 from $3.43.

The broker notes FY25 revenue of $121.8m (up 7%) and EBITDA of $39.5m (up 2%) were both slightly below expectations, while EPS of 13.8c was in line with Wilsons but -8% below consensus.

Cash EBITDA guidance for FY26 of $20–21m (15–16% margin) was well below forecasts as reinvestment into AI and Enterprise products continues to delay operating leverage.

Forecasts are materially downgraded, with revenue reduced by -4–5% and EBITDA and EPS cut by up to -20%

SITEMINDER LIMITED ((SDR)) Downgrade to Market Weight from Overweight by Wilsons.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Wilsons lowers its rating to Market Weight from Overweight and raises its price target to $7.00 from $6.44.

The broker notes FY25 revenue rose 19% to $224.3m, in line with expectations, while ARR accelerated to $273m (up 31%) and Net Property additions increased by 2.9k in 2H.

EBITDA of $28.8m was slightly below forecasts due to higher G&A, though maiden annual free cash flow of $4.7m was achieved.

Smart Products contributed mid-single digit revenue with Smart Distribution the main driver, while Channels Plus adoption passed 5k Properties and DR-plus v2.0 is set to launch, the analysts highlight.

SANDFIRE RESOURCES LIMITED ((SFR)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Sandfire Resources' FY25 net profit of US$90m missed Canaccord Genuity's and the consensus forecasts on higher net finance and income tax expenses. Free cash flow was ahead on strong contributions from Matsa and Motheo.

Revenue and EBITDA were pre-reported. No dividend was declared in line with expectations.

The company provided operating cost guidance with 10% increase expected across both operations. The broker expects Motheo costs to rise by 10% in FY26 and Matsa's to be flat in EUR terms, but 10% higher in USD terms.

Target rises to $12.50 from $12.00. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED ((WTC)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

WiseTech Global reported weaker earnings momentum than expected in FY25, resulting in Jarden downgrading the stock to Underweight from Neutral.

FY26 revenue guidance of 14% to 21% growth missed the analyst's previous forecast of over 30% growth, but positively Container Transport Optimisation will be in the market.

Jarden lowers its net profit after tax forecasts by -9% for FY26 and -3.6% for FY27 post-guidance, with longer-term EPS estimates materially downgraded by -19%.

Target price falls to $82 from $106.

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