Weekly Reports | Oct 06 2025
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday September 29 to Friday October 3, 2025
Total Upgrades: 15
Total Downgrades: 17
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 59.23%; Hold 31.85%; Sell 8.92%
For the week ending Friday, October 3, 2025, FNArena tracked fifteen upgrades and seventeen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
The size of percentage rises in average target prices outweighed reductions for the sixth week in a row largely driven by mining-related stocks after commodity price forecast upgrades by Macquarie and Ord Minnett.
Outside of resources, cyber safety and parental control platform operator Qoria and automotive retailer Eagers Automotive enjoyed average target price rises of 17% and 11%, respectively.
Last week, Bell Potter initiated coverage on Qoria with a Buy rating and 90 cent target price, the highest among daily monitored brokers in the FNArena database.
Scrutiny of the tables below shows Qoria also appears atop the list for negative change to average earnings forecasts. This is due to lower forecasts by Bell Potter than previously existing brokers in the database; Ord Minnett and Shaw and Partners.
Bell Potter pointed to Qoria’s strong position in global cyber safety, noting the company already serves 17m students worldwide and has expanded into the parental market with over 8m users.
Qoria’s ecosystem model spans networks, devices, and third-party platforms. The broker sees the business nearing an inflection point, with positive free cash flow expected in FY26.
Management’s FY26 guidance also suggests to Bell Potter the Rule of 40 measure will be attained for the first time. When adding the company’s revenue growth rate to the profit margin, a combined score of 40% or more is seen as a sign of strong financial health and balance between growth and profitability.
During the week, Eagers Automotive announced the purchase of a 65% equity stake in CanadaOne for -$1,044m, funded via $386m in scrip and $658m in cash.
According to Macquarie, the Canadian market is around 1.6 times larger than the Australian market and has grown at a long-term rate of up to 5.5% versus the Australian market at 3.4%.
Management is helping finance the purchase by a $452m entitlement offer of around 21.5m new shares at $21, a discount of -28.4% from the previous closing share price.
Ord Minnett raised its target for Eagers to $31.00 from $23.50 and upgraded to Accumulate from Hold, given the deal will be around 15% earnings-per-share accretive on a pro-forma June 2025 basis.
Accretion will be supported by CanadaOne’s above-average sales, 4% return on sales, and strong parts and service contribution, explained the analysts.
Morgan Stanley acknowledged offshore expansion risks and stretched management focus but felt these were offset by vendor participation and execution capability. The owner/founder of CanadaOne, Pat Priestner, will retain a 30% stake in operating companies and 35% in property, noted Macquarie.
Tenth position on the table for target price rises this week didn’t preclude a material (9%) increase in average target for diversified mining services business Perenti, after Hold-rated Bell Potter raised its target to $2.80 from $2.15.
The broker explained a strong gold price and Perenti's ability to meet or exceed guidance have been factors in the share price outperforming the ASX300 in the last year, rising by 130%.
Owing to changes in debt forecasts due to refinancing and more robust medium-term targets, Bell Potter raised its FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates for the company by 12% and 22.9%, respectively.
The analyst pondered whether market EPS upgrades were likely or whether consensus EPS estimates forecasting flat future EPS growth will limit the stock's upside.
Apart from Qoria, Eagers Automotive, and Perenti, all other positive changes in the list for target prices relate to higher commodity pricing forecasts, as do nine of the ten positive changes to brokers’ average earnings forecasts; Dyno Nobel being the exception.
While the focus is now entirely on the explosives business at Dyno Nobel following completion of the sale of its fertiliser distribution business, Citi noted a recovery in diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices could result in upside to second half earnings from Phosphate Hill manufacturing.
Macquarie agreed and raised its EPS forecasts by 18% for FY25 and 11% for FY26 due to a better than anticipated performance from the fertiliser unit. Morgans forecasts FY26 earnings for Phosphate Hill will be the second highest on record at $315m.
Dyno Nobel has sold the downstream operations which marketed and sold fertiliser products, but retained ownership of Phosphate Hill, its upstream manufacturing and mining asset in Queensland. The sale process for this asset is ongoing and should a buyer not be found by March 2026; it will be closed by September 2026.
Turning to the commodity price upgrades last week, here Macquarie raised its 2026 price forecast for gold by 22% to US$3,475/oz (average).
Ord Minnett also lifted most of its commodity price forecasts, including copper up 11% in 2026, gold rising 5% in 2025 and 18% in 2026, thermal coal up 11% in 2026, and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026, reflecting expectations of a more balanced supply outlook.
This broker maintains a preference for Rio Tinto over BHP Group among the large, diversified miners, citing stronger volume growth potential and more attractive valuation multiples.
Base metals continue to be favoured over bulks, with Alcoa preferred in aluminium, while Newmont Mining and Capricorn Metals are the favoured gold exposures.
Focused on the Karlawinda and Mount Gibson projects in Western Australia, Capricorn Metals sits atop the table for positive change to target prices and sneaks into the top 10 for rise in average earnings forecast.
Other companies appearing in both tables are Greatland Gold (Havieron gold-copper project in WA), Aeris Resources (copper, zinc, and gold across Queensland and New South Wales), and exploration company Minerals 260 which is targeting copper, nickel, and platinum group metals via its flagship Mynt project located in WA’s Julimar region.
In contrast, copper-focused 29Metals appears in the positive target price table but also in the negative change in earnings forecast list which involves current year forecasts.
To explain, Macquarie’s EPS forecast for 29Metals was trimmed by -11% for FY25 but lifted sharply for FY26. Both Macquarie and Ord Minnett raised their targets but downgraded their respective ratings to Neutral and Sell.
Macquarie lowered its 2025 production forecasts for 29 Metals, with zinc guidance withdrawn after seismic events at Xantho Extended, an underground ore zone within the Golden Grove operation. The broker also cited the stock’s strong recent share price performance.
Other beneficiaries of higher commodity price forecasts were gold miner Newmont Corp (with a higher average target) and higher average forecasts for lithium miners Pilbara Minerals and PMET Resources, along with Vault Minerals (gold), and Capstone Copper.
Elsewhere, Morgans updated coverage on New Hope after assigning a new research analyst, resulting in a -10 cent lower target of $4.35 and a downgrade in rating to Accumulate from Buy.
The analyst acknowledged the FY25 result in mid-September was solid despite an -8% profit fall on -16% lower coal prices.
The suggestion made is that production growth is supported by low-cost, long-life assets, with upside from thermal coal prices, which are likely near a natural floor.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 59.23% of the total, versus 31.85% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.92%.
Upgrade
AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.
While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.
The broker still sees upside for AMP after the class action settlement removed a major risk overhang.
With a stronger balance sheet and capital position, Ord Minnett believes the settlement effectively clears the decks for the wealth manager. Consequently, the broker's rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target to $1.95 from $1.52.
EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/1
Eagers Automotive has agreed to acquire a 65% stake in CanadaOne for $1,043m. The target is ranked among the country’s top five dealerships and holding over $700m in freehold property, highlights Ord Minnett.
The broker raises its target for Eagers to $31.00 from $23.50 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold, given the deal will be around 15% earnings per share accretive on a pro-forma June 2025 basis.
Accretion will be supported by CanadaOne’s above-average sales, 4% return on sales, and strong parts and service contribution, explain the analysts.
The broker notes founder Pat Priestner retains 35% ownership and will also hold a 7% interest in Eagers, while Mitsubishi will invest -$50m in Eagers and acquire 20% of Easyauto123 for -$70m.
ASX LIMITED ((ASX)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/2
Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.
While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.
For the ASX, Ord Minnett upgrades its rating to Accumulate from Hold, reflecting a more appealing valuation and what the broker sees as reduced earnings risks for the market operator. The target is reduced to $63.00 from $64.50.
BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED ((BGL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.
The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.
The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.
The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).
Bellevue Gold is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a higher target price of $1.40 from $1.10.
DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0
Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.
The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.
The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.
The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).
Deterra Royalties is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a higher target of $4.50 from $4.40.
GLOBAL LITHIUM RESOURCES LIMITED ((GL1)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/2/0
Macquarie has updated its forecasts for commodities. In the short-term, the broker is overweight gold, with its 2026 price forecast rising by 22% to US$3,475/oz.
Copper and aluminium forecasts have lifted modestly for 2025-26 and remain below consensus for 2026. Nickel forecasts raised, but remain -2% below consensus, with the broker having an even-weight/neutral view.
Forecast spodumene prices cut by -3–14% for 2025-26, now -1–11% below consensus, so an underweight. The broker lifted iron ore price forecast in the short term (2025-26) and is underweight longer term.
Met coal price forecast little changed, and alumina/zinc/manganese price estimates are all below consensus, with the broker retaining an underweight view.
EPS forecast for Global Lithium Resources lifted by 13% for FY26 but cut by -30% for FY27.
Target rises to 35c from 13c. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.
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