Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 03-10-25

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This story features AMP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AMP
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday September 29 to Friday October 3, 2025
Total Upgrades: 15
Total Downgrades: 17
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 59.23%; Hold 31.85%; Sell 8.92%

For the week ending Friday, October 3, 2025, FNArena tracked fifteen upgrades and seventeen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

The size of percentage rises in average target prices outweighed reductions for the sixth week in a row largely driven by mining-related stocks after commodity price forecast upgrades by Macquarie and Ord Minnett.

Outside of resources, cyber safety and parental control platform operator Qoria and automotive retailer Eagers Automotive enjoyed average target price rises of 17% and 11%, respectively.

Last week, Bell Potter initiated coverage on Qoria with a Buy rating and 90 cent target price, the highest among daily monitored brokers in the FNArena database.

Scrutiny of the tables below shows Qoria also appears atop the list for negative change to average earnings forecasts. This is due to lower forecasts by Bell Potter than previously existing brokers in the database; Ord Minnett and Shaw and Partners.

Bell Potter pointed to Qoria’s strong position in global cyber safety, noting the company already serves 17m students worldwide and has expanded into the parental market with over 8m users.

Qoria’s ecosystem model spans networks, devices, and third-party platforms. The broker sees the business nearing an inflection point, with positive free cash flow expected in FY26.

Management’s FY26 guidance also suggests to Bell Potter the Rule of 40 measure will be attained for the first time. When adding the company’s revenue growth rate to the profit margin, a combined score of 40% or more is seen as a sign of strong financial health and balance between growth and profitability.

During the week, Eagers Automotive announced the purchase of a 65% equity stake in CanadaOne for -$1,044m, funded via $386m in scrip and $658m in cash.

According to Macquarie, the Canadian market is around 1.6 times larger than the Australian market and has grown at a long-term rate of up to 5.5% versus the Australian market at 3.4%.

Management is helping finance the purchase by a $452m entitlement offer of around 21.5m new shares at $21, a discount of -28.4% from the previous closing share price.

Ord Minnett raised its target for Eagers to $31.00 from $23.50 and upgraded to Accumulate from Hold, given the deal will be around 15% earnings-per-share accretive on a pro-forma June 2025 basis.

Accretion will be supported by CanadaOne’s above-average sales, 4% return on sales, and strong parts and service contribution, explained the analysts.

Morgan Stanley acknowledged offshore expansion risks and stretched management focus but felt these were offset by vendor participation and execution capability. The owner/founder of CanadaOne, Pat Priestner, will retain a 30% stake in operating companies and 35% in property, noted Macquarie.

Tenth position on the table for target price rises this week didn’t preclude a material (9%) increase in average target for diversified mining services business Perenti, after Hold-rated Bell Potter raised its target to $2.80 from $2.15.

The broker explained a strong gold price and Perenti’s ability to meet or exceed guidance have been factors in the share price outperforming the ASX300 in the last year, rising by 130%.

Owing to changes in debt forecasts due to refinancing and more robust medium-term targets, Bell Potter raised its FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates for the company by 12% and 22.9%, respectively.

The analyst pondered whether market EPS upgrades were likely or whether consensus EPS estimates forecasting flat future EPS growth will limit the stock’s upside.

Apart from Qoria, Eagers Automotive, and Perenti, all other positive changes in the list for target prices relate to higher commodity pricing forecasts, as do nine of the ten positive changes to brokers’ average earnings forecasts; Dyno Nobel being the exception.

While the focus is now entirely on the explosives business at Dyno Nobel following completion of the sale of its fertiliser distribution business, Citi noted a recovery in diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices could result in upside to second half earnings from Phosphate Hill manufacturing.

Macquarie agreed and raised its EPS forecasts by 18% for FY25 and 11% for FY26 due to a better than anticipated performance from the fertiliser unit. Morgans forecasts FY26 earnings for Phosphate Hill will be the second highest on record at $315m.

Dyno Nobel has sold the downstream operations which marketed and sold fertiliser products, but retained ownership of Phosphate Hill, its upstream manufacturing and mining asset in Queensland. The sale process for this asset is ongoing and should a buyer not be found by March 2026; it will be closed by September 2026.

Turning to the commodity price upgrades last week, here Macquarie raised its 2026 price forecast for gold by 22% to US$3,475/oz (average).

Ord Minnett also lifted most of its commodity price forecasts, including copper up 11% in 2026, gold rising 5% in 2025 and 18% in 2026, thermal coal up 11% in 2026, and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026, reflecting expectations of a more balanced supply outlook.

This broker maintains a preference for Rio Tinto over BHP Group among the large, diversified miners, citing stronger volume growth potential and more attractive valuation multiples.

Base metals continue to be favoured over bulks, with Alcoa preferred in aluminium, while Newmont Mining and Capricorn Metals are the favoured gold exposures.

Focused on the Karlawinda and Mount Gibson projects in Western Australia, Capricorn Metals sits atop the table for positive change to target prices and sneaks into the top 10 for rise in average earnings forecast.

Other companies appearing in both tables are Greatland Gold (Havieron gold-copper project in WA), Aeris Resources (copper, zinc, and gold across Queensland and New South Wales), and exploration company Minerals 260 which is targeting copper, nickel, and platinum group metals via its flagship Mynt project located in WA’s Julimar region.

In contrast, copper-focused 29Metals appears in the positive target price table but also in  the negative change in earnings forecast list which involves current year forecasts.

To explain, Macquarie’s EPS forecast for 29Metals was trimmed by -11% for FY25 but lifted sharply for FY26. Both Macquarie and Ord Minnett raised their targets but downgraded their respective ratings to Neutral and Sell.

Macquarie lowered its 2025 production forecasts for 29 Metals, with zinc guidance withdrawn after seismic events at Xantho Extended, an underground ore zone within the Golden Grove operation. The broker also cited the stock’s strong recent share price performance.

Other beneficiaries of higher commodity price forecasts were gold miner Newmont Corp (with a higher average target) and higher average forecasts for lithium miners Pilbara Minerals and PMET Resources, along with Vault Minerals (gold), and Capstone Copper.

Elsewhere, Morgans updated coverage on New Hope after assigning a new research analyst, resulting in a -10 cent lower target of $4.35 and a downgrade in rating to Accumulate from Buy.

The analyst acknowledged the FY25 result in mid-September was solid despite an -8% profit fall on -16% lower coal prices.

The suggestion made is that production growth is supported by low-cost, long-life assets, with upside from thermal coal prices, which are likely near a natural floor.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 59.23% of the total, versus 31.85% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.92%.

Upgrade

AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

The broker still sees upside for AMP after the class action settlement removed a major risk overhang.

With a stronger balance sheet and capital position, Ord Minnett believes the settlement effectively clears the decks for the wealth manager. Consequently, the broker’s rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target to $1.95 from $1.52.

EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/1/1

Eagers Automotive has agreed to acquire a 65% stake in CanadaOne for $1,043m. The target is ranked among the country’s top five dealerships and holding over $700m in freehold property, highlights Ord Minnett.

The broker raises its target for Eagers to $31.00 from $23.50 and upgrades to Accumulate from Hold, given the deal will be around 15% earnings per share accretive on a pro-forma June 2025 basis.

Accretion will be supported by CanadaOne’s above-average sales, 4% return on sales, and strong parts and service contribution, explain the analysts.

The broker notes founder Pat Priestner retains 35% ownership and will also hold a 7% interest in Eagers, while Mitsubishi will invest -$50m in Eagers and acquire 20% of Easyauto123 for -$70m.

ASX LIMITED ((ASX)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/2

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

For the ASX, Ord Minnett upgrades its rating to Accumulate from Hold, reflecting a more appealing valuation and what the broker sees as reduced earnings risks for the market operator. The target is reduced to $63.00 from $64.50.

BELLEVUE GOLD LIMITED ((BGL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Bellevue Gold is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a higher target price of $1.40 from $1.10.

DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Deterra Royalties is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a higher target of $4.50 from $4.40.

GLOBAL LITHIUM RESOURCES LIMITED ((GL1)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Macquarie has updated its forecasts for commodities. In the short-term, the broker is overweight gold, with its 2026 price forecast rising by 22% to US$3,475/oz.

Copper and aluminium forecasts have lifted modestly for 2025-26 and remain below consensus for 2026. Nickel forecasts raised, but remain -2% below consensus, with the broker having an even-weight/neutral view.

Forecast spodumene prices cut by -3–14% for 2025-26, now -1–11% below consensus, so an underweight. The broker lifted iron ore price forecast in the short term (2025-26) and is underweight longer term.

Met coal price forecast little changed, and alumina/zinc/manganese price estimates are all below consensus, with the broker retaining an underweight view.

EPS forecast for Global Lithium Resources lifted by 13% for FY26 but cut by -30% for FY27.

Target rises to 35c from 13c. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

IGO Ltd is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target lifts to $5.50 from $5.25.

NIB HOLDINGS LIMITED ((NHF)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/1

Ord Minnett has reviewed its diversified financials and insurance coverage following a mixed September quarter. The broker sees a muted earnings outlook with ongoing headwinds weighing on near-term growth prospects.

While operating trends remain subdued, current valuation multiples already reflect much of the softer earnings profile, suggests the analyst.

For the health insurers, the broker’s revenue and margin expectations have been revised lower.

Ord Minnett continues to favour nib Holdings over Medibank Private, citing a stronger earnings outlook and more appealing valuation.

The target for nib Holdings rises to $8.50 from $7.65, and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED ((NIC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Macquarie has updated its forecasts for commodities. In the short-term, the broker is overweight gold, with its 2026 price forecast rising by 22% to US$3,475/oz.

Copper and aluminium forecasts have lifted modestly for 2025-26 and remain below consensus for 2026. Nickel forecasts raised, but remain -2% below consensus, with the broker having an even-weight/neutral view.

Forecast spodumene prices cut by -3–14% for 2025-26, now -1–11% below consensus, so an underweight. The broker lifted iron ore price forecast in the short term (2025-26) and is underweight longer term.

Met coal price forecast little changed, and alumina/zinc/manganese price estimates are all below consensus, with the broker retaining an underweight view.

EPS forecast for Nickel Industries lifted by 8% for FY25 and by 36% for FY26.

Target rises to 80c from 73c. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

PREDICTIVE DISCOVERY LIMITED ((PDI)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Predictive Discovery lifted by 30% for FY26 but trimmed by -3.9% for FY27.

Target price 50c. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

PANTORO GOLD LIMITED ((PNR)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/2/0

Bell Potter upgrades Pantoro Gold to Hold from Sell with a lift in target price to $5.35 from $4.40 post FY25 results.

The highlight, as viewed by the analyst, was the better financial performance, including a more robust balance sheet and a simplified capital structure for the miner. A US$12.5m convertible debt facility was closed with a 1:17 share consolidation.

Earnings (EBITDA) margins lifted to 55% in the past year compared to 11% in FY24, with a further uplift anticipated in FY26 to 65%, while free cash flow turned positive at $78m from -$12m in FY24.

Management has reiterated the medium-term production target of 200kozpa-plus on mill filling to 1.4mtpa with a higher grade of 4.5g/t of gold.

Bell Potter lowers its FY26 earnings forecast by -21% on higher depreciation assumptions and lifts FY27 by 3%.

PERPETUAL LIMITED ((PPT)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Macquarie marks-to-market the Asset Managers under research coverage where funds under management (FUM) have been supported by “robust” global markets in September and muted currency movements.

For Perpetual, the broker raises its target to $23.95 from $22.85 on a revised valuation method and upgrades to Outperform from Neutral give the stock has underperformed the ASX200 by -12.7% since FY25 results.

The upcoming September FUM update in mid-October is expected to drive consensus upgrades.

QUBE HOLDINGS LIMITED ((QUB)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Ord Minnett upgrades Qube Holdings to Buy from Accumulate, retaining a $4.52 target due to the recent weakness in the share price.

Volume of full TEUs handled through the four major ports advanced 3.9% for the two months of FY26, which is viewed as positive for Patrick Stevedoring.

The analyst believes the good level of diversification across sectors and geographies insulates the earnings from one-off contract losses, noting product suspension for at least one resource customer over the first half of FY26.

Ord Minnett continues to forecast EPS growth of 6% for FY26 and sees good support from both the energy and agri sectors, alongside a pickup in volumes for Moorebank IMEX.

RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED ((RSG)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Resolute Mining lifted by 20% for FY26 and by 53% for FY27.

Target rises to $1.10 from $0.80. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold.

SUPPLY NETWORK LIMITED ((SNL)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Ord Minnett has upgraded Supply Network to Buy from Accumulate following recent share price weakness.

The broker reminds the company is expanding strategically to capture the fleet market, a major untapped segment for commercial vehicle parts.

The company’s recent investments have driven cost of doing business (CODB) higher, but the broker is confident it will help in driving revenue growth over the longer term.

Target unchanged at $41.50.

Downgrade

29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/2/2

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Ord Minnett downgrades 29Metals to Sell from Hold with a higher target of 40c from 30c.

Macquarie has updated its forecasts for commodities. In the short-term, the broker is overweight gold, with its 2026 price forecast rising by 22% to US$3,475/oz.

Copper and aluminium forecasts have lifted modestly for 2025-26 and remain below consensus for 2026. Nickel forecasts raised, but remain -2% below consensus, with the broker having an even-weight/neutral view.

Forecast spodumene prices cut by -3–14% for 2025-26, now -1–11% below consensus, so an underweight. The broker lifted iron ore price forecast in the short term (2025-26) and is underweight longer term.

Met coal price forecast little changed, and alumina/zinc/manganese price estimates are all below consensus, with the broker retaining an underweight view.

EPS forecast for 29Metals trimmed by -11% for FY25 but lifted sharply higher for FY26.

Target rises to 50c from 40c. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

ATLANTIC LITHIUM LIMITED. ((A11)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Macquarie has a 16c target price on Atlantic Lithium. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((AIS)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Macquarie has updated its forecasts for commodities. In the short-term, the broker is overweight gold, with its 2026 price forecast rising by 22% to US$3,475/oz.

Copper and aluminium forecasts have lifted modestly for 2025-26 and remain below consensus for 2026. Nickel forecasts raised, but remain -2% below consensus, with the broker having an even-weight/neutral view.

Forecast spodumene prices cut by -3–14% for 2025-26, now -1–11% below consensus, so an underweight. The broker lifted iron ore price forecast in the short term (2025-26) and is underweight longer term.

Met coal price forecast little changed, and alumina/zinc/manganese price estimates are all below consensus, with the broker retaining an underweight view.

EPS forecast for Aeris Resources lifted sharply for FY26 and by 90% for FY27.

Target rises to 50c from 28c. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED ((CMM)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/1

Macquarie has updated its forecasts for commodities. In the short-term, the broker is overweight gold, with its 2026 price forecast rising by 22% to US$3,475/oz.

EPS forecast for Capricorn Metals lifted by 23% for FY26 and by 16% for FY27.

Target rises to $11 from $10. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral.

CAPSTONE COPPER CORP. ((CSC)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Ord Minnett downgrades Capstone Copper to Hold from Buy. Target price is raised to $13 from $12.

CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CTD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Citi notes Corporate Travel Management shares have been on a trading halt since late August after the company became aware material corrections would need to be made to its financial statements.

The broker remains positive on the stock due to reasons including a major UK contract win starting FY26, and because the likely adjustments appear to be for the European business and are non-cash.

Still, the uncertainty has prompted a downgrade to Neutral from Buy. Target price rises to $16.10 from $15.65 on higher market multiples.

EMERALD RESOURCES NL ((EMR)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/0/0

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto ((RIO)) over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

Emerald Resources is downgraded to Lighten from Hold. Target price is raised to $4.30 from $3.65.

NEW HOPE CORPORATION LIMITED ((NHC)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/2/1

Morgans updated its model for New Hope on transition of coverage to Chris Creech, adjusting production, costs, capex, and key inputs.

Notable changes included a lower WACC, delayed Safeguard impacts, reduced New Acland yields, revised short-term ROM production, and higher capex.

FY25 result was described as solid by the broker, considering the -8% y/y net profit decline was achieved amid -16% y/y fall in thermal coal prices. 

Looking ahead, the broker notes production growth is supported by low-cost, high-margin, long-life assets, underpinning long-term strength.

Upside comes from thermal coal prices likely having found a natural floor, making the company a high-quality exposure to the next price cycle.

Target trimmed to $4.35 from $4.45. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Macquarie has updated its forecasts for commodities. In the short-term, the broker is overweight gold, with its 2026 price forecast rising by 22% to US$3,475/oz.

EPS forecast for Perseus Mining lifted by 29% for FY26 and by 81% for FY27.

Target rises to $4.70 from $4.10. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform

RAMSAY HEALTH CARE LIMITED ((RHC)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/5/1

Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Ramsay Health Care to $31.30 from $36.70 and downgrades to Underweight from Equal-weight. Industry View: In-Line.

The broker notes Australian private hospital growth slowed in 2H25, with utilisation falling despite supportive demographics.

The analysts forecast around 2% annual hospital volume growth in FY26-28, though EBIT margins in Australia and France are expected to contract further in FY26 before stabilising in FY27.

Indexation benefits are being offset by higher costs and revised Joondalup funding, highlights the broker.

Morgan Stanley sees potential upside from strategic options for Ramsay Sante but highlights timing as uncertain. The broker’s EPS forecasts for FY27 and FY28 fall to levels -7% and -13% below consensus, respectively.

RIO TINTO LIMITED ((RIO)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Ord Minnett has updated its commodity price forecasts as the Sept quarter wraps up, following a robust performance for commodities over the period.

The impacts of the US tariffs and trade war seem, at this stage, less than feared and, combined with supply-side challenges, commodities have held up well over the quarter.

The broker has raised most of its price forecasts, highlighting a rise in copper by 11% for 2026; gold up 5% for 2025 and 18% for 2026; thermal coal up 11% for 2026; and lithium spodumene up 25% in 2026 on more balanced supply.

The preferred stocks are Rio Tinto over BHP Group ((BHP)); Alcoa ((AAI)) for aluminium; and in the golds, Newmont Corp ((NEM)) and Capricorn Metals ((CMM)).

EPS forecast for Rio Tinto lifted by 10% for FY25 and by 23% for FY26.

Target rises to $127 from $121. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy.

RAMELIUS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RMS)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Macquarie has updated its forecasts for commodities. In the short-term, the broker is overweight gold, with its 2026 price forecast rising by 22% to US$3,475/oz.

EPS forecast for Ramelius Resources lifted by 24% for FY26 and by 67% for FY27.

Target rises to $3.70 from $3.30. Rating downgraded to Neutral from Outperform

REGIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((RRL)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/1/4

Macquarie has updated its forecasts for commodities. In the short-term, the broker is overweight gold, with its 2026 price forecast rising by 22% to US$3,475/oz.

EPS forecast for Regis Resources lifted by 49% for FY26 and by 114% for FY27.

Target rises to $5.20 from $4.40. Rating downgraded to Underperform from Neutral.

VEEM LIMITED ((VEE)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Veem announced a new US$33m, nine-year defence contract with Northrop Grumman and a $14m capital raise to strengthen funding, all while pointing to a disappointing 1H26 EBITDA forecast.

Ord Minnett highlights the 1H26 EBITDA forecast represents a -45% downgrade to its forecasts earlier. The company expects a pick-up in 2H, but the broker is not confident it will be enough to meet its previous FY26 EBITDA estimate.

The outcome is a -20% downgrade to FY26 EBITDA forecast.

Target drops to $1.75 from $1.90. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED ((WAF)) Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/0/1

Macquarie has updated its forecasts for commodities. In the short-term, the broker is overweight gold, with its 2026 price forecast rising by 22% to US$3,475/oz.

EPS forecast for West African Resources lifted by 6% for FY25 and by 46% for FY26. However, target price cut to $3.00 from $3.40 on a doubling of WACC to 25% from 12.5% to reflect country risk.

Rating downgraded to Underperform from Outperform

WAGNERS HOLDING CO. LIMITED ((WGN)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Morgans notes around 14% of Wagners Holding Co’s shares were transacted in the past month but the share price was still up 8.2%.

The company made a $30m institutional share placement at $2.60/share and the Wagner Family sold $36m of their holding at $2.56/share, reducing their stake to 44%. The broker highlights the raising is dilutionary as it is used to reduce debt.

The broker remains of the view the company is well-positioned for SEQ growth and Olympics-driven demand, with smart capex in CFT and CM. But risk/reward now looks balanced.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate. Target rises to $2.90 from $2.75 on roll-forward to FY27.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
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