Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday November 3 to Friday November 7, 2025
Total Upgrades: 14
Total Downgrades: 7
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 60.81%; Hold 30.56%; Sell 8.63%
For the week ending Friday, November 7, 2025, FNArena tracked fourteen upgrades and seven downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Goodman Group received ratings upgrades from two separate brokers following a quarterly update that saw its share price weaken, while National Australia Bank was downgraded twice after reporting FY25 results.
Macquarie upgraded Goodman to Outperform from Neutral following a -12.4% share price decline so far this year, noting the stock looks attractive based on a sum-of-the-parts-based valuation and relative to peers.
Management provided further property-by-property details in relation to the data centre development pipeline and reaffirmed 9% operating EPS growth guidance for FY26, with a skew to the second half.
Work in progress is expected to exceed $17.5bn by June 2026, with secured power capacity increasing to 3.4MW. Updates on new data centre lease agreements and potential capital partnerships are anticipated by August 2026.
For reasons similar to those cited by Macquarie, UBS upgraded its rating for Goodman to Buy from Neutral.
The company’s September quarter update fell slightly short of elevated expectations due to slower-than-anticipated progress in data centre development, this broker noted.
The analysts pointed to upcoming catalysts, including increased data centre commencements supported by work in progress and new capital partnerships expected in Australia and Europe during the second half.
UBS advised patience, suggesting the data centre growth thesis will take time to fully materialise.
Morgan Stanley described National Australia Bank’s second-half FY25 result as mixed, noting the earnings outlook and capital position lack the strength needed to support meaningful share price upside. The broker’s rating was downgraded to Equal-weight from Overweight.
In downgrading to Sell from Lighten, Ord Minnett noted NAB’s higher-than forecast bad debt charges and concerns over its regulatory capital position.
The bank’s main challenge, according to this broker, is the rapid growth in risk-weighted assets combined with a 75% dividend payout, which has reduced its common equity tier-one ratio to 11.7%, down -31bps half-on-half.
After paying the final dividend, and without moderating balance-sheet expansion, the CET1 ratio is likely to approach the regulatory minimum of 11.25%, cautioned Ord Minnett.
More positively, pre-provision operating profit aligned with consensus and the final dividend proved in line with forecast, noted the analyst.
The key net interest margin was seen as a positive, widening by 8bps to 1.78% half-on-half, ahead of expectations for 1.73%. The improvement was driven primarily by gains from the replicating portfolio (a structured investment portfolio comprised of fixed-maturity and interest-rate sensitive instruments), with additional support from liquidity and treasury operations.
Quarter-on-quarter, the net interest margin remained stable, highlighted Ord Minnett, a solid result given market and treasury contributions were neutral in the September quarter, leaving the replicating portfolio as the main source of margin strength.
Average target price increases outpaced cuts for the eighteenth consecutive week, while rises in average forecasts by analysts also exceeded falls.
The average target price for Navigator Global Investments jumped by nearly 9% after UBS initiated coverage with a $3.40 target price, higher than the other two daily monitored brokers in the FNArena database (Ord Minnett and Macquarie at $2.80 and $2.61, respectively). All three have Buy, or equivalent ratings.
Describing Navigator as a diversified alternatives manager with a wholly owned hedge fund platform and minority stakes in ten partner firms, UBS felt the business is positioned to capture strong sector tailwinds.
The broker forecasts asset under management growth of around 6% annually and EPS growth of about 10%, exceeding consensus estimates. Resilient performance fees, supported by uncorrelated strategies, were noted, and the analysts see further upside from management’s active M&A strategy.
The stock is seen as undervalued versus global peers with upcoming catalysts including M&A execution, the November investor day, and potential ASX300 inclusion.
Eagers Automotive and Capstone Copper are next with rises in average targets of around 8%.
UBS upgraded Eagers to Neutral from Sell and raised its target price to $33 from $18.70, citing better-than-expected execution and near-term EPS momentum.
The broker incorporated the recent CanadaOne acquisition, expected to complete in early 2026, which drove EPS forecast upgrades of 15% for FY26 and 18% for FY27.
These upgrades also reflected accelerating volume growth for cars from Chinese automaker BYD, forecast to double by FY27, and continued gains from strategic margin initiatives and technology investments.
UBS highlighted a 17% three-year revenue compound annual growth rate for the company’s used-car business easyauto123, and growing investor confidence in Eagers’ global consumer positioning but cautioned auto retailing is a cyclical industry on very thin margins.
Regarding Capstone Copper, here Citi raised its target to $16.10 from $11.00 after September quarter (3Q FY25) copper output came in 2% above the consensus estimate, with cash costs flat at US$2.42/lb, -6% lower-than-anticipated.
Output from the Mantoverde mine (an open-pit copper-gold operation located in the Atacama Region of Chile) ‘beat’ consensus by 5%, with cash costs also outperforming at US$2.27/lb, thanks to a flexible design plan, highlighted the broker.
Morgans highlighted strong execution across both Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos open-pit copper and silver operation (also in Chile), offsetting interruptions elsewhere.
Cozamin (underground copper-silver in Mexico) remained a steady contributor, while the performance of the Pinto Valley open-pit copper-molybdenum operation in Arizona also improved with water availability, explained the broker.
Sustained margin expansion is expected should copper prices remain near US$5/lb.
Capstone is also placed second on the earnings upgrade table wedged between uranium exposure Lotus Resources and Bubs Australia, which is focused on premium infant and adult dairy-based products.
The positions of Lotus and Bubs on the list owes more to the exaggeration in percentage changes to earnings owing to the small forecast number involved.
Ord Minnett found no surprises in the first-quarter FY26 update by Lotus, with management reaffirming progress on commissioning at the Kayelekera uranium project.
The broker noted the first production of yellowcake since 2014, when the mine was placed into care and maintenance, marking a key milestone in its restart program.
Shaw and Partners noted Bubs Australia’s performance is tracking ahead of expectations.
First-quarter revenue rose 30% year-on-year, outpacing the broker’s first half forecast for 21.4% growth. Earnings of $0.5m also compared favourably with Shaw’s half yearly forecast of $0.6m, indicating stronger-than-expected early momentum despite supply challenges.
After heading up the positive change to target table last week following a positive AGM trading update, furniture retailer Nick Scali is prominent again with a 10% lift in average broker earnings forecasts.
FNArena’s summary from last week can be accessed at
https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/03/weekly-ratings-targets-forecast-changes-31-10-25/
Pexa Group’s first quarter met the consensus expectation and FY26 guidance was reaffirmed, with brokers noting a refinancing boost locally, and a remortgage volume tailwind in the UK.
For more details on analysts’ views and upside potential via Pexa’s UK expansion see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/07/market-not-valuing-pexa-groups-uk-potential/
Total Buy ratings in the database comprises 60.81% of the total, versus 30.56% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.63%.
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