In Case You Missed It – BC Extra Upgrades & Downgrades – 14-11-25

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((ILU))
            [1] => ((LYC))
            [2] => ((MQG))
            [3] => ((REA))
            [4] => ((VSL))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => ILU
            [1] => LYC
            [2] => MQG
            [3] => REA
            [4] => VSL
        )

)

This story features ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ILU
The company is included in ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.

Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

Upgrade

ILUKA RESOURCES LIMITED ((ILU)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity retains a constructive outlook on rare earth equities, citing China’s 12-month pause on rare earth export controls as positive for supply certainty and magnet demand. Global dependence on China remains unresolved, note the analysts.

Prices and sentiment have improved, highlights the broker, yet export restrictions persist for strategic uses, with new non-Chinese supply unlikely before 2028.

It’s believed China will still hold around 75% of NdPr refining and 85% of magnet capacity by then, maintaining market dominance.

Canaccord lifts its NdPr price forecasts by an average 16% for 2026-30, with the long-term at US$130/kg, and raises Dy and Tb oxide price estimates by 10-50%.

For Iluka Resources, the target rises to $7.30 from $7.10 and the broker’s rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Canaccord Genuity retains a constructive outlook on rare earth equities, citing China’s 12-month pause on rare earth export controls as positive for supply certainty and magnet demand. Global dependence on China remains unresolved, note the analysts.

Prices and sentiment have improved, highlights the broker, yet export restrictions persist for strategic uses, with new non-Chinese supply unlikely before 2028.

It’s believed China will still hold around 75% of NdPr refining and 85% of magnet capacity by then, maintaining market dominance.

Canaccord lifts its NdPr price forecasts by an average 16% for 2026-30, with the long-term at US$130/kg, and raises Dy and Tb oxide price estimates by 10-50%.

The broker raises its target for Lynas Rare Earths to $15.55 from $14.15 and upgrades to Buy from Hold.

MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED ((MQG)) Upgrade to Overweight from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

After reviewing 1H results, Jarden believes Macquarie Group is entering a transition phase, with recent divestments providing improved earnings visibility.

The broker highlights the agreed sale of Macquarie Asset Management’s (MAM’s) stake in Aligned Data Centers, which secures around three years of performance fees.

MAM has stabilised, according to the analysts, with proceeds from selling its US and European public investments business to Nomura to be redeployed into private markets. A solid capital markets pipeline is believed to support Macquarie Capital (MacCap).

Jarden lifts its FY26-28 cash earnings by up to 5%, upgrading to Overweight from Underweight with an unchanged $200 target.

REA GROUP LIMITED ((REA)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

REA Group’s 1Q26 revenue rose 4% to $429m, broadly in line with Jarden’s expectations, while earnings (EBITDA) of $254m were marginally ahead.

The broker notes residential yield growth of 13% met forecasts, offsetting softer performance from India, where revenues declined -20%. Cost control is seen as a positive, with full-year guidance unchanged following the removal of Housing Edge from forecasts.

Jarden trims FY26 EBITDA and EPS forecasts by -0.6% and -1.1%, respectively, and lowers its target to $207 from $212. The rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underweight after recent share price underperformance.

Downgrade

VULCAN STEEL LIMITED ((VSL)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0

Jarden explains Vulcan Steel’s -NZ$88m acquisition of Roofing Industries Ltd will add about NZ$11m to FY26 earnings (EBITDA), with full consolidation from October 2026.

The broker observes the deal is funded by a NZ$96m equity raise at $5.95 per share and remains accretive despite Roofing’s expected earnings halving in FY26.

Despite a softer first-quarter update, management forecast a second-half rebound, leaving FY26 earnings guidance unchanged at NZ$130m but lifting FY27 to NZ$202m.

Reflecting the acquisition and lower discount rate, Jarden’s target price increases to NZ$8.27 from NZ$7.60. The rating is downgraded to Neutral from Overweight.

Price Target Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)

More Highlights

AEE    AURA ENERGY LIMITED

Energy – Overnight Price: $0.20

Petra Capital rates ((AEE)) as Buy (1) –

Petra Capital retains a Buy rating and 38c target and sees Aura Energy as the preferred uranium exploration exposure on the ASX.

The analyst anticipates an increase in the resource at Tiris to boost the project’s output as well as upside potential to scale in Mauritania.

Short term, the departure of the CEO is flagged to weigh on the stock.

This report was published on November 6, 2025.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.18
If AEE meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 90% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

GDG    GENERATION DEVELOPMENT GROUP LIMITED

Wealth Management & Investments – Overnight Price: $6.60

Moelis rates ((GDG)) as Buy (1) –

Generation Development reinforced a robust performance-related culture at its Investor Day while outlining medium-term growth targets for three to five years across the three pillars of its business.

Moelis notes Evidentia Group has over $75bn in FUM, with the broker forecasting $70bn in FUM by FY28.

Generation Life bonds at $10bn in FUM outperformed the analyst’s forecast of $8.2bn, and Lifetime annuities FUM of $1bn compared to the analyst’s estimate of $0.8bn, with Lonsec offering over 2,500 products researched or rated.

No changes to the broker’s earnings estimates, which were updated at its 1Q26 update.

Buy rating retained. Target rises to $8.45 from $8.44.

This report was published on November 12, 2025.

Target price is $8.45 Current Price is $6.60 Difference: $1.85
If GDG meets the Moelis target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $7.97, suggesting upside of 20.9%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 10.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 64.71.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.9, implying annual growth of -6.3%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 60.5.

Forecast for FY27:

Moelis forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 14.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 0.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 44.90.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 14.7, implying annual growth of 34.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.5%.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 44.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

LNW    LIGHT & WONDER INC

Gaming – Overnight Price: $138.82

Canaccord Genuity rates ((LNW)) as Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity notes Light & Wonder delivered a stronger-than-expected third quarter, with adjusted earnings (AEBITDA) beating forecasts by 4% and free cash flow (FCF) displaying its cleanest profile in years.

Margin execution and cost discipline were key drivers, explains the broker, while improved cash conversion and buybacks highlight strengthening financial flexibility. Progress is also seen across gaming operations, iGaming, and SciPlay, with FY25 guidance reaffirmed.

Despite share price underperformance ahead of the US delisting, Canaccord views valuation as undemanding and expects sentiment to improve as earnings momentum builds. The broker retains a Buy rating and raises its target to $192 from $191.

This report was published on November 6, 2025.

Target price is $192.00 Current Price is $138.82 Difference: $53.18
If LNW meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 38% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $187.67, suggesting upside of 35.2%(ex-dividends)
The company’s fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 800.37 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.34.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 872.6, implying annual growth of N/A.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 853.32 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.27.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 1107.2, implying annual growth of 26.9%.
Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A.
Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.5.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 1.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

NXG    NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED

Uranium – Overnight Price: $13.45

Petra Capital rates ((NXG)) as Buy (1) –

NexGen Energy raised around $1bn in equity in early October, adding to the September quarter cash and inventory of $735m.

The initial approval hearing for Rook 1 will be held on November 19, with a second hearing flagged for February 9–13, 2026.

The stock is a significant shareholding within ETFs, with a dual listing on the ASX and Toronto Stock Exchange, and offers one of the most liquid exposures to the uranium sector, Petra Capital comments.

NexGen remains a preferred ASX exposure with a Buy rating and $17.14 target price.

This report was published on November 6, 2025.

Target price is $17.14 Current Price is $13.45 Difference: $3.69
If NXG meets the Petra Capital target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

This company reports in CAD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

OMA    OMEGA OIL & GAS LIMITED

Energy – Overnight Price: $0.37

Canaccord Genuity rates ((OMA)) as Initiation of coverage with Speculative Buy (1) –

Canaccord Genuity initiates coverage on Omega Oil & Gas, highlighting its Canyon Project in Queensland’s Taroom Trough as a potentially transformative unconventional oil and gas play.

The first horizontal appraisal well, Canyon-1H, achieved an 822m lateral with a 9-stage frac, delivering an initial flow rate of 452 barrels of oil per day and 0.6MMscfd of gas.

Modelling indicates an estimated ultimate recovery of 0.95MMboe per 2,000m horizontal well, comparable with leading US shale plays, highlight the analysts.

With favourable jurisdictional settings, nearby infrastructure, and growing major interest, Canaccord sees significant upside potential.

The broker begins coverage with a Speculative Buy rating and 84c target.

This report was published on November 7, 2025.

Target price is $0.84 Current Price is $0.37 Difference: $0.47
If OMA meets the Canaccord Genuity target it will return approximately 127% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company’s fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.60 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 23.13.

Forecast for FY27:

Canaccord Genuity forecasts a full year FY27 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 1.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock’s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is minus 24.67.

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena’s consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms