Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 14-11-25

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This story features AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AIS
The company is included in ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday November 10 to Friday November 14, 2025
Total Upgrades: 21
Total Downgrades: 5
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.41%; Hold 30.37%; Sell 8.22%

For the week ending Friday, November 14, 2025, FNArena tracked twenty-one upgrades and five downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Average target price increases outpaced cuts for the nineteenth consecutive week, while rises in average forecasts by analysts also exceeded falls.

Share prices of lithium miners received a boost after Ord Minnett and Morgans raised their lithium price forecasts and Bell Potter pointed to a sentiment lift following a new agreement between Mineral Resources and South Korean-based Posco Holdings.

According to Ord Minnett, the lithium market is approaching an inflection point, with demand growth set to outpace supply after several years of surplus-driven price weakness.

The broker’s updated energy storage system (ESS) forecasts suggest the current market surplus will narrow to just 1% in 2025 before shifting to deficits of -2% and -4% in subsequent 2026 and 2027.

Morgans also upgraded its near-term lithium price forecasts and lifted its market view to Neutral from Bearish, citing firmer demand from batteries and electric vehicles, alongside slowing new project development.

Average targets in the table below for Liontown Resources, Pilbara Minerals, Mineral Resources, PMET Resources, and IGO Ltd jumped by between 7-23%.

At a cost of around -$1.2bn, Posco will acquire a 30% interest in a new incorporated joint venture which will hold Mineral Resources’ existing 50% stakes in both the Wodgina Lithium Mine and the Mt Marion Lithium Mine projects, alongside existing joint venture partners Ganfeng for Mt Marion and Albemarle for Wodgina.

In effect, Posco’s 30% stake in the new joint venture provides an indirect 15% interest in each of Mineral Resources’ Wodgina and Mt Marion lithium mines.

Under a separate agreement with Mineral Resources, Posco will also receive its proportional share of product offtake from both operations.

Bell Potter views the transaction as a clear positive for lithium sector sentiment, noting an established downstream participant is moving to secure long-term upstream supply exposure.

While Morgans upgraded its rating for Mineral Resources to Hold from Trim following the Posco deal, the analysts at Jarden (not monitored daily by FNArena) were surprised by the initial boost to the company’s share price, as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/14/in-brief-black-cat-sun-silver-unico-minres/

Following an AGM trading update, Domino’s Pizza Enterprises appears second on the list for positive change to target price.

Morgans noted gearing metrics are improving and the business is on track to exceed the FY26 consensus net profit forecast. Transition to a new pricing strategy is expected to drive higher-margin sales for franchisees.

UBS upgraded its rating to Neutral from Sell partly as the recent debt refinancing has de-risked the balance sheet, but the analysts still noted ongoing challenges in France and Japan, as well as potential disruptions from cost-out initiatives. Management is aiming for around -$100m in annualised cost savings, having identified -$60-70m to date.

Morgans suggested the risk-reward proposition for Domino’s remains attractive, noting the stock is still only trading on a FY26 forecast PE of 16x, a -30% discount to peer Collins Foods.

Average targets for engineering and contracting company Monadelphous Group and alternative asset manager Navigator Global Investments rose by 14% and 13%, respectively.

Ahead of its November 25 AGM, Monadelphous issued a strong trading update, Morgans commented, guiding to FY26 revenue growth of 20-25% (exceeding consensus by more than 20%) despite expectations for a second-half moderation following front-loaded oil and gas activity.

Macquarie noted broad-based strength across the group’s Engineering and Construction (E&C) and Maintenance divisions.

Management highlighted a sharp increase in demand from energy clients, particularly in brownfield and turnaround services, supporting a strong first half for maintenance. The work pipeline remains robust, according to the company, with further contract awards anticipated by the company in the coming months.

Navigator Global Investments’ Investor Day underscored meaningful long-term upside risk to consensus forecasts, suggested the analysts at UBS.

Management highlighted the resilience and diversity of performance fees, which are more recurring than peers (noted UBS), and a deep global pipeline of acquisition opportunities supporting its target of one to two deals per year.

Ord Minnett observed a combination of steady organic growth via Lighthouse and NGI Strategic, along with around US$80m in planned strategic acquisitions, which positions the company well to achieve its goal of doubling earnings by 2030 from 2025 levels.

Following Orica’s FY25 results, showing earnings growth across all divisions, the average broker target price for the commercial explosives and mining services group rose by nearly 11% last week.

UBS attributed FY25 strength to a stronger product mix and margins, benefits from ammonium nitrate re-contracting, heightened mining exploration activity, and record gold prices supporting demand for sodium cyanide.

Digital Solutions and Specialty Chemicals momentum is set to accelerate, suggested Citi, with new Axis products (part of its digital mining technology portfolio) doubling its total addressable market and rising gold, copper, and critical minerals activity boosting demand.

Among industrial stocks in the table below, GrainCorp and ANZ Bank received the largest boost in average FY26 earnings forecasts last week following FY25 result releases.

While forecasts for both companies benefited as FY25 forecasts rolled off broker financial models and were replaced by sunnier outlooks for FY26, FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor shows a ‘shortfall’ for GrainCorp and broadly in-line results for ANZ Bank at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/14/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-14-11-2025/

Next up in the industrials space are Orica and Dyno Nobel with increases in average earnings forecasts of around 10%, backed up by FY25 performance ‘beats’, also explained in the Monitor.

oOh!media received the only materially negative fall in average target price from brokers last week due to softer adjusted earnings guidance (as part of last week’s trading update) which came in -7% adrift of the consensus estimate.

A slowing advertising spend and an unfavourable mix are weighing on margins, Macquarie noted. Still, it is thought the ad market is nearing its trough, with a gradual recovery expected, supported by digitisation, new assets, and the 2026 launch of Move 2.0, the next-generation audience measurement system being developed by the Outdoor Media Association (OMA) in Australia.

oOh!media’s valuation is attractive, in the Overweight-rated broker’s view, on a 10x 12-months forward P/E (versus 14x through the cycle average).

The three largest falls in average earnings forecasts in the week belong to Qoria, IGO Ltd, and Xero. For an explanation of Xero’s FY25 result ‘miss’ refer to the previously mentioned Monitor.

Due to the small earnings forecast numbers involved, the percentage falls for Qoria (cyber safety and parental control platforms) and lithium miner IGO Ltd should be seen inside the proper context (of small numbers).

In the case of Qoria, Ord Minnett noted upside risk to FY26 annual recurring revenue from strong momentum for the company’s Qustodio software, contingent on cash flow outperformance or additional cost savings.

The broker also highlighted potential for merger and acquisition activity, with management targeting accretive opportunities in real-world safety, security, and mental health adjacencies.

Last week, Morgan Stanley took time out to review its forecasts for Tabcorp Holdings after competitor updates indicated a weak start for the Australian wagering market in FY26.

While lowering its target to $1.02 from $1.15 in reaction, the broker maintained an Overweight rating, based on expectations of successful cost-out execution, a renewed focus on monetising retail licences, and continued outperformance relative to the market.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.41% of the total, versus 30.37% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.22%.

Upgrade

AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((AIS)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 4/0/0

Bell Potter upgrades Aeris Resources to a Buy from Hold, with a lift in target to 65c from 52c.

This follows three positive catalysts in the broker’s view, including $80m equity raising, a maiden ore reserve for the Constellation deposit at Tritton, and the sale of small North Queensland copper assets.

A high-cost loan has been repaid (circa $40m), and the placement removes an overhang on the stock.

The Tritton process plant is the largest plant in the Cobar region, and the Constellation mine now has visibility to produce 27-30ktpa copper from the start of 2026.

The analyst lowers its EPS estimates by -15% for FY26 and raises FY27 by 1%. Tritton will be the largest copper mine in Australia not owned by a major.

ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED ((ALL)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 7/0/0

Morgans upgrades Aristocrat Leisure to Buy from Accumulate with a lowered target of $73 from $77 on the back of what is viewed as a “solid” result.

Revenue advanced 8% in constant currency, which met expectations and consensus for 9% topline CAGR over five years.

Sales in 2H25 boosted gaming with robust 2H cadence in North American ship share, which achieved around 31%, and the ops installed base lifted 4.1k units y/y with a circa 43% share.

Against a falling market, social slots grew 5% versus the market at 9%, while the direct-to-consumer mix rose 16% with margin growth of 380bps. Interactive came in below both the broker’s and consensus expectations.

Morgans assumes $750m in buybacks in FY26 and lowers its earnings (EBITA) forecasts by around -5% to -6% across FY26-FY27.

BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED ((BEN)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/3

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank’s September-quarter update showed cash earnings below Ord Minnett’s expectations, driven by higher costs, softer home lending, and weak business credit demand.

The broker explains the mortgage book fell -1.4% as the bank eased competition ahead of full rollout of its new lending platform, expected by November.

The analyst highlights a 3bps net interest margin (NIM) increase to 1.91% and stable asset quality but rising IT vendor costs.

Ord Minnett maintains its $11.00 target and upgrades to Hold from Lighten on valuation grounds.

See also BEN downgrade.

BREVILLE GROUP LIMITED ((BRG)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 5/1/0

Morgans notes Breville Group’s share price has fallen around -16% since FY25 results, reflecting expectations of muted FY26 earnings amid tariff-related margin pressure and softer consumer demand.

It’s thought the company’s premium positioning, product innovation, and exposure to the coffee segment should help offset macro headwinds.

The broker highlights manufacturing diversification progress and ongoing resilience in premium markets.

Morgans views the recent weakness as a buying opportunity, upgrading to Buy from Hold with an unchanged $36.05 target.

CHALLENGER LIMITED ((CGF)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Morgan Stanley upgrades Challenger to Equal-weight from Underweight, assessing the gap between statutory and underlying earnings should substantially narrow under new capital rules.

The broker asserts earnings quality impacts shareholder returns, and believes investors should consider rotating into stocks with strong or improving earnings quality, exercising care where there are persistent gaps.

Having said that, the broker believes benefits to Challenger from the narrowing earnings gap will take several years to emerge.

Target is raised to $8.50 from $7.00. Industry view: In Line.

CLINUVEL PHARMACEUTICALS LIMITED ((CUV)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/0/0

Morgans observes the case for Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals remains polarising among the investment community despite solid cash generation and a market cap nearly half backed by cash.

The broker notes upbeat AGM commentary but limited new catalysts and ongoing shareholder frustration, with a third consecutive remuneration strike signalling discontent over capital deployment and transparency.

Valuation has become attractive, in the analysts’ opinion, with near-term downside protected by strong free cash flow.

Morgans upgrades its rating to Speculative Buy from Hold, maintaining a $14 target, noting a short-term trading opportunity.

CORE LITHIUM LIMITED ((CXO)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Ord Minnett has sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

For Core Lithium, the new target price is 23c. Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold.

DOMINO’S PIZZA ENTERPRISES LIMITED ((DMP)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/1

Citi has turned more positive on Domino’s Pizza Enterprises post-AGM, noting improving franchisee profitability from the EDLP (everyday low pricing) shift. Two-thirds of the cost savings are expected to benefit franchisees, further supporting earnings.

Additionally, WA menu trial is progressing well, and the recent debt refinance has de-risked the balance sheet.

While some caution remains due to ongoing challenges in France and Japan, as well as potential disruptions from cost-out initiatives, the broker upgraded to Neutral from Sell.

This reflects lower equity-raise risk, stable trading, and takeover speculation. Target rises to $19.85 from $13.25.

DYNO NOBEL LIMITED ((DNL)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/4/0

After a thorough analysis of Dyno Nobel’s FY25 results, Citi highlights its transformation into a pure explosives business is delivering strong growth.

This is supported by innovation, structural tailwinds, and the transformation program is targeting $600m EBIT by FY28. The broker notes AN volumes remain important but the company’s ability to shift to bundled end-to-end solutions underpins sustained profitability.

Target lifted to $4.00 from $3.50. Rating upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

At first glance, the broker wrote:

Citi views today’s Dyno Nobel’s FY25 result as solid, with group earnings (EBIT) of $714m at the top end of guidance and ahead of expectations.

The Explosives division performed strongly, highlights the broker, guiding to FY26 EBIT of $460-500m, around 4% above expectations, supported by continued growth at DNEL and progress on the Perdaman Offtake Agreement.

The broker notes Fertiliser separation is advancing and leverage of 1.4x remains below forecasts, though higher interest and tax costs led to a modest EPS miss. Citi expects the FY25 momentum to continue into FY26.

See also DNL downgrade.

IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/1/2

Ord Minnett has sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

Target price for IGO Ltd rises to $7.50 from $5.50. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate.

INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/3/0

Bell Potter upgrades Inghams Group to Buy from Hold with an unchanged $2.75 target price post its AGM trading update, with FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance unchanged but pointing to a second-half skew.

While the 2H26 earnings slant concerns the analyst, if the group can achieve such a result, it would signify a notable change in financial performance going into FY27.

The market is not discounting such an outcome, and the share price has declined -30% since the initial FY26 guidance.

With so much market scepticism, the analyst states there is scope to re-rate the stock if management can execute on cost savings and better wholesale pricing in the 2H. This would have a more pronounced impact on the FY27 earnings outlook.

Bell Potter tweaks EPS forecasts lower by -3% for FY26 and -1% for FY27.

JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Ord Minnett re-assesses its James Hardie Industries model after US rival Louisiana Pacific posted stronger siding sales, indicating it may be losing market share amid a softening US housing market.

The broker notes the stock has fallen -50% in 2025, pressured by macro weakness, competition, and legal risks tied to the US$9bn Azek acquisition, which has also triggered governance turmoil.

FY26 EPS forecast lowered by -4.1% and FY27 by -8.4% to reflect weaker North American sales. Despite ongoing challenges and potential index weighting cuts, the broker believes these negatives are largely priced in, prompting an upgrade to Hold from Sell.

Target trimmed to $31 from $32.

LIONTOWN RESOURCES LIMITED ((LTR)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/4

Ord Minnett has sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

Target price for Liontown Resources rises to $1.25 from $0.75. Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/3

Macquarie upgrades Lynas Rare Earths to Outperform from Neutral following recent share price weakness.

The broker expects the market to remain tight as demand is “solid” and there are supply disruptions, highlighting the stock remains the largest ex-China rare earths producer and this deserves a premium.

Target is steady at $17.

MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/2/2

Morgans lifted short-term lithium price forecasts and upgraded its market view to neutral from bearish due to firmer EV and BESS demand and slower new supply growth.

The broker is now forecasting FY26 spodumene (SC6 equivalent) price at US$960/t, FY27 at US$1,125/t and FY28 at US$1,225/t, representing upgrades of 15%, 25% and 13%, respectively.

However, the impact on equity valuation is limited as they are still highly leveraged to an elevated long-term price assumption of over US$1,300/t.

The broker notes Mineral Resources is selling 30% of its 50% stakes in Wodgina and Mt Marion to Posco for US$765m ($1.2bn), retaining 35% in each and using proceeds to reduce debt. 

The deal, along with stronger lithium and iron ore prices, accelerates deleveraging, with ND/EBITDA below 2x expected by end-FY27.

Rating upgraded to Hold from Trim. Target rises to $47.40 from $40.70.

MACQUARIE GROUP LIMITED ((MQG)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Ord Minnett notes Macquarie Group’s 1H26 earnings missed expectations, with shares down -6%, mainly due to write-downs in green energy assets. Cero Solar and Corio Wind are now valued at $900m and $300m, respectively.

These assets have been moved out of Macquarie Asset Management (MAM) ahead of planned divestments, though realisable values remain uncertain, the broker highlights. Strong performance fees from asset sales (AirTrunk, DIG Airgas) were a key positive, with the Aligned Data Centre sale expected to drive future fees.

Macquarie Capital delivered strong earnings growth, while the banking arm grew loans, up 11%, and deposits, up 12%, albeit with margin compression.

Commodities revenue softened amid greater competition, offset partly by financial markets growth. The broker trimmed FY26 EPS forecast by -0.8% and FY26 by -1.2%.

Target unchanged at $255. Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate following recent share price fall.

PILBARA MINERALS LIMITED ((PLS)) Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/3

Ord Minnett has sharply increased its lithium price forecasts, up 225% for 2026 for lithium spodumene to US$3,250/t and 86% for 2027 to US$2,325/t, following stronger-than-expected ESS and solid EV demand.

The broker notes ESS battery shipments have surged, prompting a 45% lift to its 2026 estimates to 840GWh and to 1010GWh in 2027, supported by improving economics, grid-arbitrage opportunities and policy incentives.

EV sales expectations are slightly trimmed for 2025 due to US/China policy impacts, but the broker notes global growth remains strong.  2026 growth is expected to slow to 15%, though commercial EV adoption is seen adding upside risk to lithium demand.

Overall, the broker expects the lithium market surplus to shrink sharply in 2025 to 1% and move into deficit by 2026-27 as demand growth (26%) overtakes supply growth (23%).

Target price for Pilbara Minerals rises to $3.60 from $1.35. Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell.

PRO MEDICUS LIMITED ((PME)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/3/0

Bell Potter observes Pro Medicus announced three major US contracts in the first four months of FY26 versus one a year earlier followed by six new contract announcements over the remainder of the fiscal year.

The current slower pace is seen as typical given ongoing implementations. It’s felt the Trinity, Lucid Health, and Franciscan Missionaries of Our Lady Health System projects are progressing well.

The Trinity ‘Go Live’ was the largest single Big Bang transition in recent history, note the analysts, and is expected to contribute around $30m in annual recurring revenue once complete.

The broker attributes recent share weakness to profit taking despite strong earnings visibility. Bell Potter upgrades to Buy from Hold and maintains its $320.00 target.

QANTAS AIRWAYS LIMITED ((QAN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 5/1/0

UBS upgrades Qantas to Buy from Neutral following recent share price weakness and what it views as a cleansing impact on earnings forecasts after the AGM trading update.

The broker notes resilient demand, with domestic revenue growth of around 8% in 1H26, industry-wide capacity discipline, and steady earnings growth from the Loyalty division. While cautious on cost pressures and upcoming capex, UBS believes these are offset by the attractive valuation.

The AGM update showed domestic RASK (revenue per available seat kilometre) growth of 3%, at the low end of prior guidance, suggesting slightly weaker load factors despite firm fares.

International RASK guidance was maintained at 2–3%, and capacity guidance was trimmed by about -1%, mainly in 2H domestic operations. Loyalty EBIT is expected to grow 10–12% in FY26.

UBS reduces its FY26 EPS forecast by -6% and FY27 by -4%, reflecting lower RASK, higher fuel costs, and updated opex assumptions.

Price target falls to $11.50 from $12.00.

QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED ((QBE)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/2/0

Ahead of the 3Q25 update on November 17, Macquarie has a stronger outlook on QBE Insurance as the catastrophe season winds down in North America. As a result, the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

The broker expects the update to show catastrophe and NA Crop performance in line with expectations, FUM up US$500m, and running yield improving to 3.9% vs 3.8% at 1H25.

The expectations follow read-throughs from global peers, which showed modest US pricing (5-7% higher), flat Europe, weaker Australia, low catastrophe losses, and an average crop year.

FY25 combined operating ratio guidance is expected to be retained at around 92.5%. No FY26 outlook or capital return commentary is expected before February 2026.

FY25 EPS forecast lifted by 2.9% and FY26 by 1.7% on updated GWP and investment outlook.

Target rises to $23.50 from $23.30.

REA GROUP LIMITED ((REA)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/3/0

Morgans upgrades REA Group to Accumulate from Hold as it sees a quality franchise business with levers to use as an offset to near-term volatility in new listing volumes.

1Q26 trading update showed a robust yield result, up 13%, which countered the weaker new listings backdrop, with volumes falling -8% on the prior year. Group revenue advanced by 4% and earnings (EBITDA) ex-associates rose 5% on the previous year.

The first quarter was well telegraphed as a challenging period, but this is seen easing as more favourable comps are cycled for the balance of FY26.

The analyst makes slight changes to the EPS forecasts, down -1% for FY26-FY27, and the target price slips to $247 from $254.

Downgrade

ALLIANCE AVIATION SERVICES LIMITED ((AQZ)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans and Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Alliance Aviation Services announced a profit downgrade at its trading update, with FY26 net profit after tax expected to come in around -40% lower than Morgans’ prior forecast.

A rise in annualised cost increases of approximately -$12m across repairs, maintenance, compliance, and logistics was attributed as the culprit. A further -$3.5m cost for the Avian inventory agreement, which started sooner than anticipated, was also noted.

Post the expected rise in D&A of -$15m due to the higher purchase price of aircraft, FY26 net profit after tax is guided at the midpoint to be -42% below FY25. Management stated it remains in compliance with its banking covenants and is implementing measures to improve performance.

Morgans sees structural challenges for the business, with ROIC of 6.3% for FY26, well below the estimated 10% cost of capital, and sees the company as an asset play, trading at a -50% discount to NTA.

The analyst downgrades net profit after tax forecasts by -42% for FY26, -50% for FY27, and -51% for FY28, and downgrades the stock to Hold from Buy. Target price slashed to $1.50 from $3.80.

Ord Minnett is disappointed with Alliance Aviation Services’ trading update and FY26 guidance, noting the latest one is a clear continuation of a negative trend.

The broker notes the FY26 guidance cut of -7% at the EBITDA line and -41% at the profit before tax line comes just 11 weeks post-FY25 results, and has significantly weakened market confidence.

Key drivers include higher repair and depreciation costs, an unresolved contract dispute, and AVIAN system costs.

Net debt is now expected at $392m vs $360m prior, and the broker now awaits clarity on potential cost and asset initiatives before turning constructive.

FY26 profit before tax estimate lowered -44% to $46m, to the low end of the guidance range.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target cut to $1.50 from $3.60.

BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED ((BEN)) Downgrade to Underweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 0/2/3

After recently lowering Bendigo & Adelaide Bank’s EPS forecasts by -3-4%, Morgan Stanley has again trimmed by -4-5% following what it describes as disappointing 1Q26 results.

The broker reckons it will take time for the bank to manage costs and margins while lifting growth. Mortgage balances fell in 1Q, and while the broker expects a return to growth, the overall FY26 growth is now expected to be flat.

The broker also expects below-system business and agri growth as restructuring continues. Margin rose 3bps q/q but is expected to drift lower through FY26.

The broker thinks Investor Day on December 4 could aim for -$60-80m potential savings in FY26 and FY27, though maintaining cost growth below inflation looks difficult. The analyst’s own forecast for “jaws” is -3.5%.

Rating downgraded to Underweight from Equal-weight. Target trimmed to $10.00 from $10.60. Industry View: In-Line.

See also BEN upgrade.

DYNO NOBEL LIMITED ((DNL)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/4/0

Dyno Nobel delivered FY25 earnings at the top of guidance and guided to stronger-than-expected FY26 growth, led by robust explosives performance, Ord Minnett notes.

Management reaffirmed its FY28 EBIT target of $600m, supported by strong demand in Australia, record high gold and copper prices, and balanced coal markets. The broker lifted its forecast to $574m, up from $562m.

The broker highlights Phosphate Hill EBIT more than doubled on favourable prices and production, though closure remains planned if unsold by March 2026.

The company announced a $470m share buyback and the broker estimates $400m in FY26. Post-result, Ord Minnett lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 7.1%, with minor adjustments for FY27-28.

Target unchanged at $3.45. Rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate following 11% share price gains since end-September.

See also DNL upgrade.

NEXGEN ENERGY LIMITED ((NXG)) Downgrade to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Bell Potter notes uranium explorer NexGen Energy reported a 3Q25 net loss of -CA$129m, mainly from a -CA$96m non-cash movement, ending the quarter with CA$306m in cash and net debt of CA$286m.

The broker highlights four signed offtake contracts and six more under negotiation above market pricing.

The recent CA$949m equity raising will fund construction preparation and reduce the equity portion of the -CA$2.2bn project cost, explain the analysts. Permitting is expected by February 2026 with construction to follow.

Bell Potter lowers its target to $13.05 from $13.55 and downgrades to Speculative Hold from Speculative Buy

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=217,144,174,102,249,251,172,140&h0=130,142,170,107,166,151,27,176&s0=11,24,44,52,34,33,5,34″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″>

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