Weekly Reports | 10:05 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday November 10 to Friday November 14, 2025
Total Upgrades: 21
Total Downgrades: 5
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.41%; Hold 30.37%; Sell 8.22%
For the week ending Friday, November 14, 2025, FNArena tracked twenty-one upgrades and five downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Average target price increases outpaced cuts for the nineteenth consecutive week, while rises in average forecasts by analysts also exceeded falls.
Share prices of lithium miners received a boost after Ord Minnett and Morgans raised their lithium price forecasts and Bell Potter pointed to a sentiment lift following a new agreement between Mineral Resources and South Korean-based Posco Holdings.
According to Ord Minnett, the lithium market is approaching an inflection point, with demand growth set to outpace supply after several years of surplus-driven price weakness.
The broker’s updated energy storage system (ESS) forecasts suggest the current market surplus will narrow to just 1% in 2025 before shifting to deficits of -2% and -4% in subsequent 2026 and 2027.
Morgans also upgraded its near-term lithium price forecasts and lifted its market view to Neutral from Bearish, citing firmer demand from batteries and electric vehicles, alongside slowing new project development.
Average targets in the table below for Liontown Resources, Pilbara Minerals, Mineral Resources, PMET Resources, and IGO Ltd jumped by between 7-23%.
At a cost of around -$1.2bn, Posco will acquire a 30% interest in a new incorporated joint venture which will hold Mineral Resources’ existing 50% stakes in both the Wodgina Lithium Mine and the Mt Marion Lithium Mine projects, alongside existing joint venture partners Ganfeng for Mt Marion and Albemarle for Wodgina.
In effect, Posco’s 30% stake in the new joint venture provides an indirect 15% interest in each of Mineral Resources’ Wodgina and Mt Marion lithium mines.
Under a separate agreement with Mineral Resources, Posco will also receive its proportional share of product offtake from both operations.
Bell Potter views the transaction as a clear positive for lithium sector sentiment, noting an established downstream participant is moving to secure long-term upstream supply exposure.
While Morgans upgraded its rating for Mineral Resources to Hold from Trim following the Posco deal, the analysts at Jarden (not monitored daily by FNArena) were surprised by the initial boost to the company’s share price, as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/14/in-brief-black-cat-sun-silver-unico-minres/
Following an AGM trading update, Domino's Pizza Enterprises appears second on the list for positive change to target price.
Morgans noted gearing metrics are improving and the business is on track to exceed the FY26 consensus net profit forecast. Transition to a new pricing strategy is expected to drive higher-margin sales for franchisees.
UBS upgraded its rating to Neutral from Sell partly as the recent debt refinancing has de-risked the balance sheet, but the analysts still noted ongoing challenges in France and Japan, as well as potential disruptions from cost-out initiatives. Management is aiming for around -$100m in annualised cost savings, having identified -$60-70m to date.
Morgans suggested the risk-reward proposition for Domino’s remains attractive, noting the stock is still only trading on a FY26 forecast PE of 16x, a -30% discount to peer Collins Foods.
Average targets for engineering and contracting company Monadelphous Group and alternative asset manager Navigator Global Investments rose by 14% and 13%, respectively.
Ahead of its November 25 AGM, Monadelphous issued a strong trading update, Morgans commented, guiding to FY26 revenue growth of 20-25% (exceeding consensus by more than 20%) despite expectations for a second-half moderation following front-loaded oil and gas activity.
Macquarie noted broad-based strength across the group’s Engineering and Construction (E&C) and Maintenance divisions.
Management highlighted a sharp increase in demand from energy clients, particularly in brownfield and turnaround services, supporting a strong first half for maintenance. The work pipeline remains robust, according to the company, with further contract awards anticipated by the company in the coming months.
Navigator Global Investments’ Investor Day underscored meaningful long-term upside risk to consensus forecasts, suggested the analysts at UBS.
Management highlighted the resilience and diversity of performance fees, which are more recurring than peers (noted UBS), and a deep global pipeline of acquisition opportunities supporting its target of one to two deals per year.
Ord Minnett observed a combination of steady organic growth via Lighthouse and NGI Strategic, along with around US$80m in planned strategic acquisitions, which positions the company well to achieve its goal of doubling earnings by 2030 from 2025 levels.
Following Orica’s FY25 results, showing earnings growth across all divisions, the average broker target price for the commercial explosives and mining services group rose by nearly 11% last week.
UBS attributed FY25 strength to a stronger product mix and margins, benefits from ammonium nitrate re-contracting, heightened mining exploration activity, and record gold prices supporting demand for sodium cyanide.
Digital Solutions and Specialty Chemicals momentum is set to accelerate, suggested Citi, with new Axis products (part of its digital mining technology portfolio) doubling its total addressable market and rising gold, copper, and critical minerals activity boosting demand.
Among industrial stocks in the table below, GrainCorp and ANZ Bank received the largest boost in average FY26 earnings forecasts last week following FY25 result releases.
While forecasts for both companies benefited as FY25 forecasts rolled off broker financial models and were replaced by sunnier outlooks for FY26, FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor shows a ‘shortfall’ for GrainCorp and broadly in-line results for ANZ Bank at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/14/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-14-11-2025/
Next up in the industrials space are Orica and Dyno Nobel with increases in average earnings forecasts of around 10%, backed up by FY25 performance ‘beats’, also explained in the Monitor.
oOh!media received the only materially negative fall in average target price from brokers last week due to softer adjusted earnings guidance (as part of last week's trading update) which came in -7% adrift of the consensus estimate.
A slowing advertising spend and an unfavourable mix are weighing on margins, Macquarie noted. Still, it is thought the ad market is nearing its trough, with a gradual recovery expected, supported by digitisation, new assets, and the 2026 launch of Move 2.0, the next-generation audience measurement system being developed by the Outdoor Media Association (OMA) in Australia.
oOh!media’s valuation is attractive, in the Overweight-rated broker’s view, on a 10x 12-months forward P/E (versus 14x through the cycle average).
The three largest falls in average earnings forecasts in the week belong to Qoria, IGO Ltd, and Xero. For an explanation of Xero’s FY25 result ‘miss’ refer to the previously mentioned Monitor.
Due to the small earnings forecast numbers involved, the percentage falls for Qoria (cyber safety and parental control platforms) and lithium miner IGO Ltd should be seen inside the proper context (of small numbers).
In the case of Qoria, Ord Minnett noted upside risk to FY26 annual recurring revenue from strong momentum for the company’s Qustodio software, contingent on cash flow outperformance or additional cost savings.
The broker also highlighted potential for merger and acquisition activity, with management targeting accretive opportunities in real-world safety, security, and mental health adjacencies.
Last week, Morgan Stanley took time out to review its forecasts for Tabcorp Holdings after competitor updates indicated a weak start for the Australian wagering market in FY26.
While lowering its target to $1.02 from $1.15 in reaction, the broker maintained an Overweight rating, based on expectations of successful cost-out execution, a renewed focus on monetising retail licences, and continued outperformance relative to the market.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.41% of the total, versus 30.37% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.22%.
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