Technicals | 11:08 AM
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates.
By Tony Sycamore
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
There are signs emerging of a completed five wave advance from the April 16,542 low to the late October 26,182 high.
Under our preferred Elliott Wave framework, once a five-wave advance is complete, the expectation is for a correction to commence. Earlier this week the Nasdaq100 closed below our short-term bullish reassessment level of 25,000.
From here, a sustained break below a band of medium-term support at 24,200/24,000 would increase the chances that the Nasdaq100 put in place a medium-term top in late October at 26,182 and that a deeper pullback is underway.
Potential downside targets are the lows of August and early September 23,000/22,600 area, which are being reinforced by the 200-day moving average at 22,260ish.
Aware that while the Nasdaq100 remains above medium-term support at 24,200/24,000 a rebound to new highs remains possible.
ASX200
Yesterday’s sharp decline saw the ASX200 slice straight through its 200-day moving average (currently sitting at 8,508), adding to the significant technical damage that began with the early-November breakdown.
At this stage, there is little on the chart to suggest an immediate rebound, aside from the fact the index is now at its most oversold level (RSI) since the Liberation Day low in April 2025.
As we all remember that extreme oversold condition ultimately marked the launchpad for a powerful multi-month rally.
History doesn’t always repeat, however it shouldn’t be ignored.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil is trading higher at US$60.73 (up 0.52%) boosted by reports that China is adding to oil inventories and expectations of a fall in US inventories when EIA data is released tomorrow morning.
Technically, we hold a bullish bias in crude oil as long as it remains above the year-to-date low of around US$55.00/bbl.
To increase confidence in this outlook, a break above trendline resistance at US$62.00 and then above the 200-day moving average at US$64.49/bbl is needed.
Gold
Gold is trading higher up 0.68%, rebounding from an intraday low of US$3997/oz as soft US jobs data raised hopes of a Fed rate cut in December.
Technically, gold’s decline from its record US$4381 high of October 21st is viewed as a correction, not a reversal lower.
At this point, it appears that gold has completed the first two legs of a correction (Waves a & b), but it is missing another leg lower (Wave c) which should take it below the October 28, US$3886/oz low to complete the correction.
Technical limitations
If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.
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