Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 21-11-25

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This story features AMPOL LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: ALD
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday November 17 to Friday November 21, 2025
Total Upgrades: 14
Total Downgrades: 4
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.66%; Hold 30.28%; Sell 8.06%

For the week ending Friday, November 21, 2025, FNArena tracked fourteen ratings upgrades and four downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.

Nufarm, which operates in the agriculture chemicals/crop-protection space, received two rating upgrades from Morgans and Citi and heads up the positive change to average earnings forecast table below.

FY25 results and an upbeat outlook by management resulted in a ‘beat’ as detailed in the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/21/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-21-11-2025/

Material earnings growth and a reduction in leverage are expected for FY26. 

New Zealand-based infrastructure investor and operator Infratil is next on the week’s table for positive change to earnings forecasts after new research by Citi contained higher forecasts than the three existing daily monitored brokers in the FNArena database.

Data centres and renewables make up more than 80% of Infratil’s assets, accompanied by additional stable cash flow from airports, telecommunications, and healthcare assets.

The analysts noted the company’s current discount to reported net asset value of greater than -30% is significantly larger than the historical average of -14%, suggesting an attractive entry point for investors.

Strong near-term growth should stem from CDC Data Centres (CDC) and Longroad Energy (owner and operator of renewable assets including solar, wind, storage) with further upside given CDC’s valuation sits more than -15% below Australian data-centre peers.

Next up is Chalice Mining, best known for its discovery and development of critical minerals projects in Western Australia. This company’s average earnings forecast was boosted by higher gold price forecasts by UBS.

The broker’s global strategy team remains bullish on the gold theme, forecasting a peak of US$4,725/oz (previously US$3,900/oz) in the first half of 2026. Sector estimates across 2026-28 were raised by 34%, 32%, and 33%, respectively, pushing up target prices by between 5-15% for gold companies.

Bellevue Gold, Vault Minerals, and Perseus Mining also appear with Chalice in the positive earnings table below, helping overall average earnings forecasts rises to exceed falls for the week.

Gold remains under-owned, according to the broker, and structural demand from private and official sectors keeps price risks skewed to the upside amid geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation.

As covered in the Monitor, average FY26 earnings forecasts for Elders increased by nearly 37% following ‘in-line’ FY25 results, with the first six weeks of trading in the new fiscal year up 30% as the drought impacts moderate in the southern states. 

Elsewhere, Morgans noted ASX energy stocks have outperformed commodities in 2025, but momentum is fading, with softer Brent expectations plus rising domestic gas policy risk partly priced in.

The sector remains growth-heavy with weaker free cash flow metrics than global majors, noted the analyst, leading to a cautious short-term sector stance.

Morgans names Woodside Energy as its preferred large-cap ASX exposure given resilient operations, a well-advanced project pipeline and limited policy-risk headwinds. This broker’s higher forecasts help lifting the average estimate in the database by circa 11%.

On the flipside, Catapult Sports heads up the table for the largest fall in average earnings forecast after interim results exceeded consensus forecasts, but share-based payments and a higher D&A expense from recent acquisitions weighed.

While factors around Catapult’s interim are explained in the Monitor, negative trading updates by HMC Capital, Bubs Australia, New Hope, and Acrow are not.

Following an AGM update, Macquarie lowered its operating EPS forecasts for HMC Capital on more conservative management fee assumptions and a slower growth profile, yet the broker could see the outlook improving.

FY26 pre-tax operating EPS guidance of at least 40c was reaffirmed and several strategic uncertainties are beginning to ease, explained the analyst.

The shares are viewed as undervalued relative to their fund-management potential, even under the broker’s conservative growth assumptions.

Progress on Healthscope, data-centre initiatives, US asset sell-downs and third-party capital partnerships is seen as key to rebuilding investor confidence.

Macquarie estimates HMC could deliver 150% upside if the asset manager re-rates to peers at 20x active earnings.

Ord Minnett described the Bubs Australia AGM as largely uneventful, with the strategy update pushed to February and FDA permanent-access approval to sell its infant-formula products in the United States still pending.

Management guided to FY26 revenue growth of about 25% and a tenfold increase in underlying earnings, which fell short of the broker’s expectations. As a result, the analyst cut FY26-FY28 earnings forecasts by -10%, -8% and -9%, respectively.

New Hope’s quarterly underlying earnings missed Bell Potter’s forecast as cost inflation at the Bengalla open-cut thermal coal mine in NSW overshadowed firmer prices and solid production. Prices rose 4% on the quarter and saleable tonnes were marginally ahead.

FY26 guidance implied to the broker flat volumes, with costs at Bengalla and New Acland’s (flagship thermal-coal operation in QLD) rail disruption weighing on margins. The broker trimmed its EPS by -38%, -15% and -4%, respectively, across FY26-FY28.

In an AGM trading update, provider of smart integrated construction systems Acrow pointed to strong industrial access activity but ongoing weakness in general formwork due to Queensland project delays.

Shaw and Partners suggested the medium-term outlook remains very positive, with major infrastructure cycles in Queensland, South Australia, and further opportunities across VIC, NSW and WA.

Xero’s average earnings forecast also fell for reasons detailed in both the Monitor and at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/18/sceptics-want-xero-to-prove-melios-added-value/

Last week, average target price falls generally matched rises.

Gentrack Group fared worst with a -24% fall in average target after Morgan Stanley and Bell Potter reviewed forecasts prior to FY25 results due out today.

Morgan Stanley highlighted strong momentum in the group’s next-generation G2 utility software platform, supported by several material contract wins.

Conversely, the analysts flag risks from elevated customer churn, delays in the Genesis rollout and tighter commercial terms that could restrict consulting-revenue leverage.

Bell Potter also cautioned the company’s growth outlook relies heavily on securing transformation projects and converting front-book revenue into recurring streams.

A lack of positive utility-project momentum in an increasingly competitive market was highlighted.

On that point, Morgan Stanley noted rising competitive pressure from Kraken in Australia, with retailers adopting the platform despite higher costs and integration complexity.

Catapult Sports is next (for reasons explained previously) followed by TechnologyOne.

The latter reported mostly record metrics in its FY25 result, but the market reacted negatively to a perceived slowing in recurring revenue and ongoing global turbulence in the technology space. See also update to be published later today on the company.

Turning to rises in average targets, here Amplitude Energy led the way courtesy of an 11-for-1 share consolidation.

Integrated energy company Viva Energy and emerging copper–gold developer and explorer FireFly Metals are next with rises in average targets of 12% each.

Macquarie raised its refining-margin expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 and all of 2026 for Viva Energy, anticipating tight supply over the next 6-8 months, which should support quicker de-gearing.

Higher Geelong refiner margin assumptions underpinned the broker’s EPS upgrades of 17% for FY25 and 33% for FY26.

It’s noted Viva’s catalytic cracker returned in mid-October and Geelong should be fully optimised from mid-November, enabling the asset to run at full capacity and maximise margin capture.

Macquarie raised its target for Viva to $3.20 from $2.00 and upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

Management at FireFly Metals updated the market on its Green Bay resource, with total tonnage up by 35% and contained copper increasing 43%. Total resources for Green Bay are estimated at 79.7mt at 1.77% copper, with 60% of contained copper in the higher confidence measure.

As a result, Macquarie raised its forecasts for mining inventory at FireFly by 81% and suggested the project is a compelling copper development opportunity and could become globally significant, attracting corporate appeal.

Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.66% of the total, versus 30.28% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.06%.

Upgrade

AMPOL LIMITED ((ALD)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/0/0

Macquarie lifted refining margin forecasts for 4Q2025 and 2026 on expected tightness over the next 6-8 months, though still expects to be below spot levels. The broker reckons this will aid faster de-gearing post-M&A for Ampol and Viva Energy.

The broker’s forecast for LRM (Lytton Refiner Margin) in 2H25 is US$13.35/bbl and for 1H26 is US$14.34/bbl. Improved refining conditions led to a 4% upgrade to Ampol’s FY25 EPS forecast and a 10% to FY26. 

The broker highlights the company recently noted LRM rose to US$13.78/bbl in Oct from US$12.85/bbl in September, with a further increase in November.

Target rises to $36 from $32. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/1

At the AGM, Charter Hall upgraded FY26 OEPS guidance by 5.5%, implying 17% growth. Stronger transaction volumes are seen boosting earnings across Property Investment, Development Investment and Funds Management, Macquarie highlights.

The broker notes Charter Hall remains highly leveraged to the property cycle recovery, reflected in stronger FY26 momentum so far. This is reflected in $3.0bn net equity flows, accelerating transaction volumes, and real estate FUM up 4% since FY25.

The broker is drawn to Charter Hall’s 13% 3-year OEPS compounded annual growth rate and potential for further upgrades. However,  valuation is seen as demanding on a bottom-up basis without leaning on relative metrics like price-earnings growth.

FY26 OEPS forecast increased by 6.3% and FY27 by 4.8%. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Outperform, and target rises to $23.83 from $19.01.

JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0

James Hardie Industries is the highest quality building products business on ASX, Morgans asserts, upgrading the stock to Buy from Accumulate.

Market conditions are more stable and inventory levels have normalised. Hence the company’s upgrade of full-year guidance, with FY26 adjusted EBITDA increasing 11% to US$1.20-1.25bn.

The broker found the outlook incrementally more positive than previously anticipated and envisages upside from both earnings and an undemanding P/E ratio. Target is reduced to $35.50 from $38.50.

LYNAS RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((LYC)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/3

Post a visit to Lynas Rare Earths’ Advanced Materials Plant (LAMP) facility in Malaysia, UBS returned with a more upbeat view on the company’s position in the country and the value chain.

The broker is also appreciative of the long-standing domestic workforce and has developed an understanding of a very complex field.

The analyst is also more positive on the Malaysian heavy rare earths expansion, underpinned by a scarcity of supply globally. The elongated construction time has pushed out the earnings impacts.

UBS estimates an incremental revenue impact of around $700m, or circa 27% of additional revenue in FY27. EPS forecasts lifted by 10% for FY27 and 37% for FY28.

The stock is upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a lift in target price to $17.80 from $15.10.

NUFARM LIMITED ((NUF)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans and Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 2/4/0

The FY25 result from Nufarm may have been weak, albeit slightly above guidance, yet Morgans found the outlook upbeat. Material earnings growth and a reduction in leverage is expected by FY26 and the broker upgrades forecasts.

The seed technologies strategy has also been prioritised and there is now certainty regarding its future.

Pricing tailwinds may provide further upside and a strengthening of the balance sheet should remove previous equity raising concerns, the broker adds.

Rating is upgraded to Buy from Hold and the target raised to $3.20 from $2.60.

Along with an improved outlook on Nufarm following FY25 results, Citi sees upside risks to Omega-3 earnings, easing balance-sheet risks and believes the CEO transition is unlikely to disrupt this positive momentum.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell. Target rises to $2.55 from $2.35.

Summary of Citi’s comments post-results and conference call follow:

After the conference call, Citi has an improved outlook on Nufarm. Among the highlights are supportive Crop Protection conditions, margin gains in Omega-3, reduced supplier-finance use, stable fish-oil assumptions, and lower, more focused FY26 R&D.

On first take, the broker pointed to an earnings beat with a positive outlook statement, which it expects would support the shares.

Underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $302.5m were better than expected and within guidance, while margins beat at 8.8% despite more elevated corporate costs versus expectations. Crop protection in North America, Asia and Europe assisted.

Omega-3 and Carinata, the emerging platforms, generated a loss of -$53m at the EBITDA level and net interest expense was above expectations by 10-14%. Net free cash flow was negative -$131m, with Nufarm seeking to generate positive free cash flow in FY26.

PRO MEDICUS LIMITED ((PME)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Morgans believes Pro Medicus’ share price weakness reflects a broader rotation away from high-growth names rather than company-specific issues.

At the current level, the stock offers an attractive entry point despite potential ongoing volatility, in the broker’s view.

Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold. Target unchanged at $290.

STOCKLAND ((SGP)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Ord Minnett has reviewed its modelling for Stockland to refine the longer-term contribution from the logistics, data centre and build-to-sell joint ventures.

The company has formed a partnership with John Boyd Properties, which contributed the land as its equity share, to develop a logistics hub at the former Kogarah golf course, Sydney.

In data centres, Stockland plans a joint venture with Swedish EdgeConneX to develop and operate centres in Australia. In Sydney, Stockland will construct 1500 units comprising of 900 social housing and 600 affordable homes in partnership with Homes NSW and local indigenous authorities.

Subsequent to the review, Ord Minnett raises free funds estimates by 10% from FY30, making slight reductions for the short term. Rating is upgraded to Accumulate from Hold and the target lifted to $6.50 from $5.80.

SKS TECHNOLOGIES GROUP LIMITED ((SKS)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/0/0

Morgans raises its target for SKS Technologies to $4.25 from $3.80 and upgrades to Buy from Accumulate. A strong outlook is anticipated following upgraded FY26 guidance, a $130m Victorian data-centre award and the acquisition of Delta Elcom.

Delta Elcom adds NSW exposure, notes the broker, where market size exceeds Victoria and offers meaningful contract opportunities.

Revenue is now expected to reach $320m, with PBT of $28.8m reflecting margin expansion as the business scales, explains the analyst.

Work in hand has risen to around $304m, with significant FY27 visibility, according to Morgans, and a large data-centre tender pipeline.

SOLVAR LIMITED ((SVR)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Solvar’s strategy to concentrate on higher quality lending and growth in commercial was in focus again at its AGM 1Q26 trading update, according to Morgans.

Australian interest income over the period slipped -3.9% y/y due to weaker lending growth and the revenue mix. The Australian gross loan book finished the quarter at around $838.3m, basically flat on June FY25 year-end and down -4.8% q/q.

The refinancing of Money3’s debt facility is expected to generate cost savings and improve diversification for the group, the analyst highlights. Management’s FY26 guidance is net profit after tax growth of 5.9% y/y.

Morgans lowers its loan book forecasts by around -6% in FY26, with a more modest assumed lift in lending activity, but raises the FY27 and FY28 EPS forecast by 6%.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. No change in $1.85 target price.

TECHNOLOGY ONE LIMITED ((TNE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Shaw and Partners and Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/3/0

TechnologyOne delivered a solid FY25 result, according to Shaw and Partners, with revenue and cash earnings slightly ahead of forecasts, despite annual recurring revenue (ARR) missing the broker’s estimate by -1%.

Key metrics such as net revenue retention (NRR) of 115% and churn of -1.2% were within target ranges but lacked the acceleration the market was hoping for, explains the broker.

Strong UK ARR growth of 49% is considered a major highlight, reinforcing the company’s product strength and medium-term expansion potential.

The analysts point out gross free cash flow (FCF) growth of 55% and a $320m cash balance support ongoing investment and capital returns.

Shaw lifts its target to $37.30 from $36.30 and upgrades to Buy from Hold.

The FY25 result from TechnologyOne was largely in line and Morgans asserts the negative share price reaction appears to be driven by softer-than-expected rates of return.

The main risk is a transition from consulting to recurring revenue/SaaS and the short-term drag on profitability, the broker observes, although given the company’s history this appears unlikely to materialise.

Traction within the UK business continues to accelerate with management indicating the business is now benefiting from new customers and a move further upstream to larger local government and university business.

The broker upgrades to Accumulate from Hold and reduces the target to $34.50 from $43.50.

VIVA ENERGY GROUP LIMITED ((VEA)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/0

Macquarie lifted refining margin forecasts for 4Q2025 and 2026 on expected tightness over the next 6-8 months, though still expects to be below spot levels. The broker reckons this will aid faster de-gearing post-M&A for Ampol and Viva Energy.

The broker’s forecast for GRM (Geelong Refiner Margin) in 2H25 is US$13.87/bbl and for 1H26 is US$13/bbl. Improved refining conditions led to a 17% upgrade to Viva Energy’s FY25 EPS forecast and a 33% to FY26. 

The broker notes Viva’s cat cracker returned in mid-Oct, and with Geelong likely fully optimised from mid-Nov after ULSG commissioning, full run-rate capability is likely. This positions the company well to capture margins.

Target rises to $3.20 from $2.00. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.

WESFARMERS LIMITED ((WES)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/5/0

Ord Minnett revised its model for Wesfarmers after sharp increases in its lithium price forecasts based on stronger EV and ESS battery demand.

The outcome is an increase in the valuation of the company’s 50% stake in Covalent Lithium to $1.9bn from $1.7bn, with FY26 JV EBIT losses now expected to be about half previous estimates.

The broker’s EBIT forecasts for the Chemical, Energy and Fertiliser division (WESCEF) increases 18.4% for FY26 and 77.3% for FY27, lifting group EPS by 1.6% for FY26 and 8.1% for FY27.

Target rises to $78 from $77. Rating upgraded to Hold from Lighten, following share price fall in the last month.

Downgrade

AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED ((ABB)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/1/0

Macquarie downgrades Aussie Broadband to Neutral from Outperform in the wake of Telstra’s ((TLS)) revamping of its NBN plans. The latter is offering internet-only plans that are broadly equivalent in price to Optus, albeit at a higher price point than Aussie Broadband.

Macquarie does not consider this a structural headwind, although price as a lever for subscriber growth will get harder.

The broker reduces the target for Aussie Broadband to $5.10 from $6.35 to reflect downward revisions in FY26 and FY27 EPS estimates of -3% and -7%, respectively. This reflects reduced growth in the residential business because of the increased competitiveness of Telstra’s pricing.

GENTRACK GROUP LIMITED ((GTK)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Morgan Stanley lowers its target for Gentrack Group to $7.70 from $13.50 and downgrades to Equal-weight from Overweight. Industry View: In-Line.

A widening range of outcomes is contemplated for the group ahead of FY25 results amid softer visibility and competitive headwinds.

The broker highlights strong traction for the group’s next-generation utility software platform G2 and material contract wins.

On the flipside, the analysts suggest caution is warranted given customer churn, delayed Genesis implementation, and tighter commercial terms that may reduce consulting revenue leverage.

It’s also noted competition from Kraken in Australia has intensified, with retailers adopting the platform despite higher cost and integration challenges.

KAROON ENERGY LIMITED ((KAR)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/0

Morgans notes ASX energy stocks have outperformed commodities in 2025, but momentum is fading, with softer Brent expectations plus rising domestic gas policy risk partly priced in.

The broker reckons the sector remains growth-heavy with weaker free cash flow metrics than global majors, leading to a cautious short-term sector stance.

In the case of Karoon Energy, the broker lifted year-end Bauna production run-rates, assumed earlier Neon capex and start-up timing, and higher opex from a longer FPSO handover.

FY25 underlying net profit forecast trimmed by -5% and FY26 by -8%. Target $1.80, and rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

STEADFAST GROUP LIMITED ((SDF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Macquarie downgrades Steadfast Group to Neutral from Outperform as commission rates are falling faster and the premium rate cycle is easing.

The broker now forecasts weakness in the premium rate cycle will last longer than the next 12 months and put pressure on the company’s ability to “hub” its insurance brokers.

Macquarie’s market analysis indicates an accelerating pace of commission rate cuts and, although home and personal motor products are generally not profitable for brokers, remains concerned about customer retention for business packages.

Target is reduced to $4.90 from $7.00.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=217,144,177,102,250,253,173,142&h0=130,143,172,108,165,151,26,174&s0=11,24,43,52,34,31,5,34″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″>

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