Weekly Reports | 10:05 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday November 17 to Friday November 21, 2025
Total Upgrades: 14
Total Downgrades: 4
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.66%; Hold 30.28%; Sell 8.06%
For the week ending Friday, November 21, 2025, FNArena tracked fourteen ratings upgrades and four downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Nufarm, which operates in the agriculture chemicals/crop-protection space, received two rating upgrades from Morgans and Citi and heads up the positive change to average earnings forecast table below.
FY25 results and an upbeat outlook by management resulted in a ‘beat’ as detailed in the FNArena Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/21/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-21-11-2025/
Material earnings growth and a reduction in leverage are expected for FY26.
New Zealand-based infrastructure investor and operator Infratil is next on the week's table for positive change to earnings forecasts after new research by Citi contained higher forecasts than the three existing daily monitored brokers in the FNArena database.
Data centres and renewables make up more than 80% of Infratil’s assets, accompanied by additional stable cash flow from airports, telecommunications, and healthcare assets.
The analysts noted the company’s current discount to reported net asset value of greater than -30% is significantly larger than the historical average of -14%, suggesting an attractive entry point for investors.
Strong near-term growth should stem from CDC Data Centres (CDC) and Longroad Energy (owner and operator of renewable assets including solar, wind, storage) with further upside given CDC’s valuation sits more than -15% below Australian data-centre peers.
Next up is Chalice Mining, best known for its discovery and development of critical minerals projects in Western Australia. This company’s average earnings forecast was boosted by higher gold price forecasts by UBS.
The broker’s global strategy team remains bullish on the gold theme, forecasting a peak of US$4,725/oz (previously US$3,900/oz) in the first half of 2026. Sector estimates across 2026-28 were raised by 34%, 32%, and 33%, respectively, pushing up target prices by between 5-15% for gold companies.
Bellevue Gold, Vault Minerals, and Perseus Mining also appear with Chalice in the positive earnings table below, helping overall average earnings forecasts rises to exceed falls for the week.
Gold remains under-owned, according to the broker, and structural demand from private and official sectors keeps price risks skewed to the upside amid geopolitical tensions and de-dollarisation.
As covered in the Monitor, average FY26 earnings forecasts for Elders increased by nearly 37% following ‘in-line’ FY25 results, with the first six weeks of trading in the new fiscal year up 30% as the drought impacts moderate in the southern states.
Elsewhere, Morgans noted ASX energy stocks have outperformed commodities in 2025, but momentum is fading, with softer Brent expectations plus rising domestic gas policy risk partly priced in.
The sector remains growth-heavy with weaker free cash flow metrics than global majors, noted the analyst, leading to a cautious short-term sector stance.
Morgans names Woodside Energy as its preferred large-cap ASX exposure given resilient operations, a well-advanced project pipeline and limited policy-risk headwinds. This broker’s higher forecasts help lifting the average estimate in the database by circa 11%.
On the flipside, Catapult Sports heads up the table for the largest fall in average earnings forecast after interim results exceeded consensus forecasts, but share-based payments and a higher D&A expense from recent acquisitions weighed.
While factors around Catapult’s interim are explained in the Monitor, negative trading updates by HMC Capital, Bubs Australia, New Hope, and Acrow are not.
Following an AGM update, Macquarie lowered its operating EPS forecasts for HMC Capital on more conservative management fee assumptions and a slower growth profile, yet the broker could see the outlook improving.
FY26 pre-tax operating EPS guidance of at least 40c was reaffirmed and several strategic uncertainties are beginning to ease, explained the analyst.
The shares are viewed as undervalued relative to their fund-management potential, even under the broker’s conservative growth assumptions.
Progress on Healthscope, data-centre initiatives, US asset sell-downs and third-party capital partnerships is seen as key to rebuilding investor confidence.
Macquarie estimates HMC could deliver 150% upside if the asset manager re-rates to peers at 20x active earnings.
Ord Minnett described the Bubs Australia AGM as largely uneventful, with the strategy update pushed to February and FDA permanent-access approval to sell its infant-formula products in the United States still pending.
Management guided to FY26 revenue growth of about 25% and a tenfold increase in underlying earnings, which fell short of the broker’s expectations. As a result, the analyst cut FY26-FY28 earnings forecasts by -10%, -8% and -9%, respectively.
New Hope’s quarterly underlying earnings missed Bell Potter’s forecast as cost inflation at the Bengalla open-cut thermal coal mine in NSW overshadowed firmer prices and solid production. Prices rose 4% on the quarter and saleable tonnes were marginally ahead.
FY26 guidance implied to the broker flat volumes, with costs at Bengalla and New Acland's (flagship thermal-coal operation in QLD) rail disruption weighing on margins. The broker trimmed its EPS by -38%, -15% and -4%, respectively, across FY26-FY28.
In an AGM trading update, provider of smart integrated construction systems Acrow pointed to strong industrial access activity but ongoing weakness in general formwork due to Queensland project delays.
Shaw and Partners suggested the medium-term outlook remains very positive, with major infrastructure cycles in Queensland, South Australia, and further opportunities across VIC, NSW and WA.
Xero’s average earnings forecast also fell for reasons detailed in both the Monitor and at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2025/11/18/sceptics-want-xero-to-prove-melios-added-value/
Last week, average target price falls generally matched rises.
Gentrack Group fared worst with a -24% fall in average target after Morgan Stanley and Bell Potter reviewed forecasts prior to FY25 results due out today.
Morgan Stanley highlighted strong momentum in the group’s next-generation G2 utility software platform, supported by several material contract wins.
Conversely, the analysts flag risks from elevated customer churn, delays in the Genesis rollout and tighter commercial terms that could restrict consulting-revenue leverage.
Bell Potter also cautioned the company’s growth outlook relies heavily on securing transformation projects and converting front-book revenue into recurring streams.
A lack of positive utility-project momentum in an increasingly competitive market was highlighted.
On that point, Morgan Stanley noted rising competitive pressure from Kraken in Australia, with retailers adopting the platform despite higher costs and integration complexity.
Catapult Sports is next (for reasons explained previously) followed by TechnologyOne.
The latter reported mostly record metrics in its FY25 result, but the market reacted negatively to a perceived slowing in recurring revenue and ongoing global turbulence in the technology space. See also update to be published later today on the company.
Turning to rises in average targets, here Amplitude Energy led the way courtesy of an 11-for-1 share consolidation.
Integrated energy company Viva Energy and emerging copper–gold developer and explorer FireFly Metals are next with rises in average targets of 12% each.
Macquarie raised its refining-margin expectations for the fourth quarter of 2025 and all of 2026 for Viva Energy, anticipating tight supply over the next 6-8 months, which should support quicker de-gearing.
Higher Geelong refiner margin assumptions underpinned the broker’s EPS upgrades of 17% for FY25 and 33% for FY26.
It’s noted Viva’s catalytic cracker returned in mid-October and Geelong should be fully optimised from mid-November, enabling the asset to run at full capacity and maximise margin capture.
Macquarie raised its target for Viva to $3.20 from $2.00 and upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
Management at FireFly Metals updated the market on its Green Bay resource, with total tonnage up by 35% and contained copper increasing 43%. Total resources for Green Bay are estimated at 79.7mt at 1.77% copper, with 60% of contained copper in the higher confidence measure.
As a result, Macquarie raised its forecasts for mining inventory at FireFly by 81% and suggested the project is a compelling copper development opportunity and could become globally significant, attracting corporate appeal.
Total Buy ratings in the database comprise 61.66% of the total, versus 30.28% on Neutral/Hold, while Sell ratings account for the remaining 8.06%.
Upgrade
AMPOL LIMITED ((ALD)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/0/0
Macquarie lifted refining margin forecasts for 4Q2025 and 2026 on expected tightness over the next 6-8 months, though still expects to be below spot levels. The broker reckons this will aid faster de-gearing post-M&A for Ampol and Viva Energy.
The broker's forecast for LRM (Lytton Refiner Margin) in 2H25 is US$13.35/bbl and for 1H26 is US$14.34/bbl. Improved refining conditions led to a 4% upgrade to Ampol's FY25 EPS forecast and a 10% to FY26.
The broker highlights the company recently noted LRM rose to US$13.78/bbl in Oct from US$12.85/bbl in September, with a further increase in November.
Target rises to $36 from $32. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/1
At the AGM, Charter Hall upgraded FY26 OEPS guidance by 5.5%, implying 17% growth. Stronger transaction volumes are seen boosting earnings across Property Investment, Development Investment and Funds Management, Macquarie highlights.
The broker notes Charter Hall remains highly leveraged to the property cycle recovery, reflected in stronger FY26 momentum so far. This is reflected in $3.0bn net equity flows, accelerating transaction volumes, and real estate FUM up 4% since FY25.
The broker is drawn to Charter Hall's 13% 3-year OEPS compounded annual growth rate and potential for further upgrades. However, valuation is seen as demanding on a bottom-up basis without leaning on relative metrics like price-earnings growth.
FY26 OEPS forecast increased by 6.3% and FY27 by 4.8%. Rating upgraded to Neutral from Outperform, and target rises to $23.83 from $19.01.
JAMES HARDIE INDUSTRIES PLC ((JHX)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0
James Hardie Industries is the highest quality building products business on ASX, Morgans asserts, upgrading the stock to Buy from Accumulate.
Market conditions are more stable and inventory levels have normalised. Hence the company's upgrade of full-year guidance, with FY26 adjusted EBITDA increasing 11% to US$1.20-1.25bn.
The broker found the outlook incrementally more positive than previously anticipated and envisages upside from both earnings and an undemanding P/E ratio. Target is reduced to $35.50 from $38.50.
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