Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday December 1 to Friday December 5, 2025
Total Upgrades: 8
Total Downgrades: 10
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.25%; Hold 30.75%; Sell 8.01%
For the week ending Friday, 5th December 2025 FNArena registered eight upgrades in broker ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks and ten downgrades.
The total tally for the eight brokers monitored daily still stands at 61.25% for Buy-equivalent ratings --exceptionally high by historical standards-- with Neutral/Holds representing 30.75% of all ratings and Sells taking up the remaining 8%.
Whereas economists are talking about K-shaped economies in acknowledgment of the opposing forces and beneficiaries in today's societies, equity strategists might as well use the same definition for the Australian share market.
Though there is one key difference: in the share market yesteryear's laggards and losers are coming back into favour in 2025.
Rating upgrades for the week comprised of a true smorgasbord with regional banks Bank of Queensland and Bendigo & Adelaide Bank (2x) plus QBE Insurance commanding half of the space for the financials sector.
Upgrades for NextDC and WiseTech Global suggest persistent share price weakness might push the out-of-favour thematic too far (at least as far as analysts are concerned), while Imdex and Veem make sure the non-financial smaller cap segment is equally represented.
Ord Minnett upgraded Bank of Queensland to Hold from Lighten on valuation grounds after bank management used its AGM address to confirm FY26 guidance on costs. Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's investor briefings equally featured strong confidence in cost-outs, plus the lender will buy RACQ Bank’s $2.7bn loan book and $2.5bn deposits (as at 30 June 2025) at book value.
Ongoing regulatory uncertainty did not prevent both Ord Minnett and Citi from upgrading their rating to Accumulate and Neutral. Bell Potter sees multiple sources for upside for QBE Insurance, but its upgrade to Buy was equally in response to a share price that keeps trending south.
Bear market dynamics for AI and growth means every broker now has a Buy rating for data centres operator NextDC (Morgans has upgraded in response to the selling pressure), as well as for logistics services provider WiseTech Global (here Macquarie was the last one to upgrade this week).
Both NextDC and WiseTech Global have been pampering investors with positive news flow this month and that might well have contributed to the ever-so-hesitant improvement in respective share prices. The pull back over the past number of months has been relentless.
Macquarie's upgrade for Imdex follows the announcement to acquire Advanced Logic Technology and its subsidiary Mount Sopris Instruments, and the subsequent share price weakness.
Small cap Veem --High technology marine propulsion and stabilisation-- issued a weak AGM update and its share price was punished for it. Morgans has upgraded to Speculative Buy.
The week saw more downgrades, but scandal-riddled Corporate Travel Management alone contributed three (Ord Minnett refuses to have any rating anymore).
Retailers are issuing profit warnings and disappointing market updates. This week Step One joined in, and subsequently received two downgrades.
Collins Foods' interim result equally disappointed, and Ord Minnett downgraded in response. The result itself was much better than expected, but management's rather cautious-looking upgrade for the full year removed all enthusiasm in the aftermath.
Fletcher Building, Monash IVF, Perseus Mining and Southern Cross Electrical complete the week's list.
Citi's downgrade for Fletcher Building was in response to this broker factoring in a slower recovery for the NZ economy. Macquarie's downgrade for Monash IVF followed a public rift between the board and the company's suitor, a consortium also including WH Soul Pattinson already in control of 91.6% of total outstanding capital.
Bell Potter's downgrade for Southern Cross Electrical followed news it had lost arbitration against the CPB Dragados Samsung Joint Venture (CDSJV) over extra WestConnex M5 tunnel costs incurred by its subsidiary, Heyday.
Outside of Corporate Travel, Perseus is the only one with a fresh Sell rating, thanks to Ord Minnett.
This downgrade relates to Perseus' ambition to acquire Predictive Discovery in competition with competing suitor Robex Resources.
When it comes to positive changes to target prices, the top ten list is made up of eight mining companies, plus Collins Foods and Sims. If that's not a signal about where today's market attention is focused on, then my name isn't Rudi.
The opposite side of the ledger is much more diverse, but only the first four have seen negative adjustments of 8%-plus: Corporate Travel, Amplitude Energy, IPH Ltd, and Metcash. The latter equally disappointed with its interim report release.
Amplitude Energy has just consolidated its capital and analyst forecasts are being updated and adjusted. IPH Ltd continues to underperform in a negative-trending market, and has been for a while (as also reflected in its share price).
The week's changes in earnings forecasts remained relatively benign, both in positive and negative terms.
The positive side sees GPT Group on top of the table (up 8.52%), followed by Greatland Resources (up 7.95%) and AUB Group (up 4.86%) plus seven smaller adjustments.
GPT Group's top position is thanks to Morgans re-initiating coverage this week. The broker highlights the group's shift toward a co-investment-led funds management model, with plans to grow assets under management to more than $85bn from $37bn and deliver 5-7% annual earnings growth.
Management aims to use its $12bn balance sheet portfolio to seed new funds, creating a more capital-light structure that may support a higher valuation multiple over time, the report suggested.
Greatland Resources updated on its Havieron feasibility study with lower expansion capex and a 36% increase in gold reserves.
Talks between AUB Group and its suitors ended with the latter walking away and management reiterating FY26 guidance for underlying net profit after tax of $215-$227m, implying annual growth between 7.4%-13.4%.
Looking further out, management highlighted "significant opportunities to grow profits in FY27 and beyond".
On the negative side, 29Metals and Nickel Industries experienced outsized downgrades, with rather small numbers represented otherwise. November has been a busy month nevertheless with companies organising AGMs, issuing trading updates and investor briefings, and a few dozen corporate result releases in between.
The in-between reporting season concluded with Collins Foods and Metcash at the beginning of the week, to take FNArena's Corporate Results Monitor to 52 results. The overarching impression is corporate Australia is still very much struggling with households' cost-of-living challenges, higher inflation and intense competition.
40% of results disappointing will tell us exactly that, while only 28.8% of results beating forecasts suggests there always remains room for a silver lining. Check out the details here: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/
Investors should note: the Monitor only covers actual result releases, so trading updates and out-of-the-blue profit warnings are not included.
In line with the swing in local market momentum, the basket of positive result surprises includes the likes of ALS Ltd, Amcor, Nufarm, Orica, Synlait Milk, and Tower; cyclicals and prior laggards ready for a come-back.
Upgrade
BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED ((BEN)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi and Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/2
Among positive takeaways from Bendigo & Adelaide Bank's investor update was strong confidence in cost-outs, with near-term savings plus a bigger program due in 2026, Citi notes.
Other upsides included the RACQ book deal, which is expected to be 4-5% cash-earnings accretive from FY28 and beyond, and bullishness on digital deposit growth.
The big negative was the unresolved AML/AUSTRAC overhang, where management expects substantial remediation work. The broker notes the RACQ buy has used roughly half of the bank's excess capital that might otherwise fund fixes.
FY26-27 EPS forecasts largely unchanged, and FY28 lifted by 3%. Target cut to $10.10 from $11.00 as the broker applies a -10% discount to fair value on financial risk.
Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell, following a -20% share price drop over the last month.
Bendigo & Adelaide Bank will buy RACQ Bank’s $2.7bn loan book and $2.5bn deposits (as at 30 June 2025) at book value, funded from excess capital, Ord Minnett notes.
This will cut CET1 by -35bp and is targeted for completion in 1H27. The bank expects the RACQ book to add $50-55m net interest income and be 4-5c EPS-accretive annually, lifting return on equity by 35-40bps.
Management guided FY26 business-as-usual cost growth to “no higher than inflation” and higher amortisation from past investment, but Ord Minnett doubts this, given 1Q26 costs were up 8%.
Potential AML/CTF investigation remediation and penalties add risk. EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by -3.4% and by -1.5% for FY27 on higher cost forecasts, partly offset by the contribution from RACQ acquisition.
Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold following -20% share price decline in the last four weeks. Target remains at $11.
BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/4/2
Ord Minnett notes Bank of Queensland re-affirmed FY26 cost growth guidance at the AGM to be below inflation. The broker notes most savings land in 2H once ME Bank legacy systems are shut, after near-inflation cost growth in 1H.
The broker trimmed FY26 EPS forecast by -1%, but lifted FY27 by 5.5% on full-year savings and efficiency gains. The bank is rebuilding by shifting from low-margin mortgages to commercial lending, though growth is heavily weighted to NSW commercial real estate, while QLD is flat.
Efficiency efforts are seen as positive, but margin pressure and tough competition still constrain returns.
Rating upgraded to Hold from Lighten on valuation grounds. Target unchanged at $6.
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