Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 05-12-25

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This story features BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BEN
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday December 1 to Friday December 5, 2025
Total Upgrades: 8
Total Downgrades: 10
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.25%; Hold 30.75%; Sell 8.01%

For the week ending Friday, 5th December 2025 FNArena registered eight upgrades in broker ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks and ten downgrades.

The total tally for the eight brokers monitored daily still stands at 61.25% for Buy-equivalent ratings –exceptionally high by historical standards– with Neutral/Holds representing 30.75% of all ratings and Sells taking up the remaining 8%.

Whereas economists are talking about K-shaped economies in acknowledgment of the opposing forces and beneficiaries in today’s societies, equity strategists might as well use the same definition for the Australian share market.

Though there is one key difference: in the share market yesteryear’s laggards and losers are coming back into favour in 2025.

Rating upgrades for the week comprised of a true smorgasbord with regional banks Bank of Queensland and Bendigo & Adelaide Bank (2x) plus QBE Insurance commanding half of the space for the financials sector.

Upgrades for NextDC and WiseTech Global suggest persistent share price weakness might push the out-of-favour thematic too far (at least as far as analysts are concerned), while Imdex and Veem make sure the non-financial smaller cap segment is equally represented.

Ord Minnett upgraded Bank of Queensland to Hold from Lighten on valuation grounds after bank management used its AGM address to confirm FY26 guidance on costs. Bendigo & Adelaide Bank’s investor briefings equally featured strong confidence in cost-outs, plus the lender will buy RACQ Bank’s $2.7bn loan book and $2.5bn deposits (as at 30 June 2025) at book value.

Ongoing regulatory uncertainty did not prevent both Ord Minnett and Citi from upgrading their rating to Accumulate and Neutral. Bell Potter sees multiple sources for upside for QBE Insurance, but its upgrade to Buy was equally in response to a share price that keeps trending south.

Bear market dynamics for AI and growth means every broker now has a Buy rating for data centres operator NextDC (Morgans has upgraded in response to the selling pressure), as well as for logistics services provider WiseTech Global (here Macquarie was the last one to upgrade this week).

Both NextDC and WiseTech Global have been pampering investors with positive news flow this month and that might well have contributed to the ever-so-hesitant improvement in respective share prices. The pull back over the past number of months has been relentless.

Macquarie’s upgrade for Imdex follows the announcement to acquire Advanced Logic Technology and its subsidiary Mount Sopris Instruments, and the subsequent share price weakness. 

Small cap Veem –High technology marine propulsion and stabilisation– issued a weak AGM update and its share price was punished for it. Morgans has upgraded to Speculative Buy.

The week saw more downgrades, but scandal-riddled Corporate Travel Management alone contributed three (Ord Minnett refuses to have any rating anymore).

Retailers are issuing profit warnings and disappointing market updates. This week Step One joined in, and subsequently received two downgrades.

Collins Foods’ interim result equally disappointed, and Ord Minnett downgraded in response. The result itself was much better than expected, but management’s rather cautious-looking upgrade for the full year removed all enthusiasm in the aftermath.

Fletcher Building, Monash IVF, Perseus Mining and Southern Cross Electrical complete the week’s list.

Citi’s downgrade for Fletcher Building was in response to this broker factoring in a slower recovery for the NZ economy. Macquarie’s downgrade for Monash IVF followed a public rift between the board and the company’s suitor, a consortium also including WH Soul Pattinson already in control of 91.6% of total outstanding capital.

Bell Potter’s downgrade for Southern Cross Electrical followed news it had lost arbitration against the CPB Dragados Samsung Joint Venture (CDSJV) over extra WestConnex M5 tunnel costs incurred by its subsidiary, Heyday.

Outside of Corporate Travel, Perseus is the only one with a fresh Sell rating, thanks to Ord Minnett.

This downgrade relates to Perseus’ ambition to acquire Predictive Discovery in competition with competing suitor Robex Resources.

When it comes to positive changes to target prices, the top ten list is made up of eight mining companies, plus Collins Foods and Sims. If that’s not a signal about where today’s market attention is focused on, then my name isn’t Rudi.

The opposite side of the ledger is much more diverse, but only the first four have seen negative adjustments of 8%-plus: Corporate Travel, Amplitude Energy, IPH Ltd, and Metcash. The latter equally disappointed with its interim report release.

Amplitude Energy has just consolidated its capital and analyst forecasts are being updated and adjusted. IPH Ltd continues to underperform in a negative-trending market, and has been for a while (as also reflected in its share price).

The week’s changes in earnings forecasts remained relatively benign, both in positive and negative terms.

The positive side sees GPT Group on top of the table (up 8.52%), followed by Greatland Resources (up 7.95%) and AUB Group (up 4.86%) plus seven smaller adjustments.

GPT Group’s top position is thanks to Morgans re-initiating coverage this week. The broker highlights the group’s shift toward a co-investment-led funds management model, with plans to grow assets under management to more than $85bn from $37bn and deliver 5-7% annual earnings growth.

Management aims to use its $12bn balance sheet portfolio to seed new funds, creating a more capital-light structure that may support a higher valuation multiple over time, the report suggested.

Greatland Resources updated on its Havieron feasibility study with lower expansion capex and a 36% increase in gold reserves.

Talks between AUB Group and its suitors ended with the latter walking away and management reiterating FY26 guidance for underlying net profit after tax of $215-$227m, implying annual growth between 7.4%-13.4%.
Looking further out, management highlighted “significant opportunities to grow profits in FY27 and beyond”.

On the negative side, 29Metals and Nickel Industries experienced outsized downgrades, with rather small numbers represented otherwise. November has been a busy month nevertheless with companies organising AGMs, issuing trading updates and investor briefings, and a few dozen corporate result releases in between.

The in-between reporting season concluded with Collins Foods and Metcash at the beginning of the week, to take FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor to 52 results. The overarching impression is corporate Australia is still very much struggling with households’ cost-of-living challenges, higher inflation and intense competition.

40% of results disappointing will tell us exactly that, while only 28.8% of results beating forecasts suggests there always remains room for a silver lining. Check out the details here: https://fnarena.com/index.php/reporting_season/

Investors should note: the Monitor only covers actual result releases, so trading updates and out-of-the-blue profit warnings are not included.

In line with the swing in local market momentum, the basket of positive result surprises includes the likes of ALS Ltd, Amcor, Nufarm, Orica, Synlait Milk, and Tower; cyclicals and prior laggards ready for a come-back.

Upgrade

BENDIGO & ADELAIDE BANK LIMITED ((BEN)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi and Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/2/2

Among positive takeaways from Bendigo & Adelaide Bank’s investor update was strong confidence in cost-outs, with near-term savings plus a bigger program due in 2026, Citi notes.

Other upsides included the RACQ book deal, which is expected to be 4-5% cash-earnings accretive from FY28 and beyond, and bullishness on digital deposit growth.

The big negative was the unresolved AML/AUSTRAC overhang, where management expects substantial remediation work. The broker notes the RACQ buy has used roughly half of the bank’s excess capital that might otherwise fund fixes.

FY26-27 EPS forecasts largely unchanged, and FY28 lifted by 3%. Target cut to $10.10 from $11.00 as the broker applies a -10% discount to fair value on financial risk.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell, following a -20% share price drop over the last month.

Bendigo & Adelaide Bank will buy RACQ Bank’s $2.7bn loan book and $2.5bn deposits (as at 30 June 2025) at book value, funded from excess capital, Ord Minnett notes.

This will cut CET1 by -35bp and is targeted for completion in 1H27. The bank expects the RACQ book to add $50-55m net interest income and be 4-5c EPS-accretive annually, lifting return on equity by 35-40bps.

Management guided FY26 business-as-usual cost growth to “no higher than inflation” and higher amortisation from past investment, but Ord Minnett doubts this, given 1Q26 costs were up 8%.

Potential AML/CTF investigation remediation and penalties add risk. EPS forecast for FY26 trimmed by -3.4% and by -1.5% for FY27 on higher cost forecasts, partly offset by the contribution from RACQ acquisition.

Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold following -20% share price decline in the last four weeks. Target remains at $11.

BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/4/2

Ord Minnett notes Bank of Queensland re-affirmed FY26 cost growth guidance at the AGM to be below inflation. The broker notes most savings land in 2H once ME Bank legacy systems are shut, after near-inflation cost growth in 1H.

The broker trimmed FY26 EPS forecast by -1%, but lifted FY27 by 5.5% on full-year savings and efficiency gains. The bank is rebuilding by shifting from low-margin mortgages to commercial lending, though growth is heavily weighted to NSW commercial real estate, while QLD is flat.

Efficiency efforts are seen as positive, but margin pressure and tough competition still constrain returns.

Rating upgraded to Hold from Lighten on valuation grounds. Target unchanged at $6.

IMDEX LIMITED ((IMD)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Macquarie upgrades Imdex to Outperform from Neutral with a rise in target price by 4% to $3.80. It follows the announcement to acquire Advanced Logic Technology and its subsidiary Mount Sopris Instruments for -EUR55.8m (circa -$98.9m), and the share price pullback.

Existing cash and debt facilities will be used to fund the acquisition, with leverage moving to around 1.1x.

The analyst lifts EPS forecasts by 2% for FY26 and FY27, with around $10m in revenue to be added in FY26 and circa $2m in earnings (EBITDA). The acquisition is expected to be EPS positive in the first full year of ownership.

Macquarie believes the strategic change in business model to rental is expected to generate more sustainable and more robust margins over time.

NEXTDC LIMITED ((NXT)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 6/0/0

Managament at NextDC has reported a 71MW rise in contracted utilisation to 316MW as at December 1, supported by recent multi-site customer wins, explains Morgans.

The broker highlights contracted MWs are now tracking ahead of consensus, with FY26 guidance unchanged but capex lifted to around -$2.3bn to support new contracts.

Contracted additions are viewed as continuing through FY26, underpinning medium-term earnings as billing converts progressively between FY26 and FY29.

Morgans lifts its FY27 and FY28 earnings forecasts by around 4% while increasing capex assumptions across the forecast period.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target of $19 is maintained given the broker was already forecasting additional, top of the market contract wins.

QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED ((QBE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 6/1/0

Bell Potter raises its target for QBE Insurance to $21.80 from $21.20 and upgrades to Buy from Hold following a largely in-line September quarter update. Gross Written Premiums rose to US$18.6bn, an increase of 6% at the headline.

Management continues to expect an attractive combined operating ratio (COR) of 92.5% for FY25, and sees it continuing into FY26.

Three factors underpin the broker’s higher rating.

First, capital return to shareholders shifts the focus from retaining capital for growth to writing for profit and return on capital employed. Commencing this month, the group will commence an on-market buyback of ordinary shares totalling $450m, funded by surplus capital. 

Also, management’s confidence in sustaining a 92.5% COR in FY26 reflects available levers to maintain profitability, suggest the analysts. The valuation is now also considered far less demanding.

VEEM LIMITED ((VEE)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Veem’s AGM update was softer than expected by Morgans, with delays in ASC orders and a slower security-clearance process for Hunter-class propellers. Customer hesitancy ahead of the Mark III gyro launch also pushed work into 2H26.

Updated guidance implies a weak first half, resulting in the broker lowering its FY26-28 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -51%, -28% and -26%, respectively.

Even so, Morgans notes early US defence traction with Huntington Ingalls Industries and an imminent Northrop Grumman request for quote (RFQ) support a more constructive longer-term outlook.

The broker lowers its target to $1.10 from $1.66 and upgrades to Speculative Buy from Accumulate.

WISETECH GLOBAL LIMITED ((WTC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 7/0/0

Macquarie upgrades WiseTech Global to Outperform from Neutral with a $108.50 target price retained. The analyst believes the company is maximising long term value creation even if there are some near-term economic impacts.

The challenges are believed to be proportional to the size of the opportunity, with the WiseTech update providing more confidence around execution of the long term strategy with minimal risks to 1H26 earnings. The analyst remains cautious on FY26 and FY27 guidance.

Around 850 of Large Global Freight Forwarders (LFF) haven’t transitioned to the new revenue model, with the top 300 customers over 70% of FY24 sales, reflecting the extended rollout of container transport optimisation.

Macquarie believes WiseTech is “fundamentally reshaping” the logistics industry but, with over 90% of revenues from customers being disrupted, the resistance to change could remain.

No change to earnings forecasts.

Downgrade

COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/2/0

Collins Foods lifted FY26 net profit growth guidance to “mid–high teens,” mainly due to lower D&A rather than a stronger underlying outlook, Ord Minnett observes.

KFC Australia had a strong 1H26 with same-store sales growth up 2.3% y/y and EBITDA  up 9.4%, helped by price investment, efficiencies, and better input costs.

2H26 looks tougher, with competition intensifying and input costs rising, so Ord Minnett expects margins to narrow in 2H vs 1H and possibly y/y. Europe was solid in 1H, but momentum has slowed in 2H.

The broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 6.9% but trimmed FY27 by -2.2%. Target rises to $10.50 from $9.50.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Accumulate on valuation grounds.

CORPORATE TRAVEL MANAGEMENT LIMITED ((CTD)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie and No Rating by Ord Minnett and Downgrade to Sell from Buy by Shaw and Partners .B/H/S: 0/2/2

Macquarie downgrades Corporate Travel Management to Underperform from Neutral and lowers the target price by -27% to $11.50 as the ongoing forensic review is unlikely to be completed before December 31, 2025.

Until the FY25 results are finalised, the analyst is not revising earnings forecasts but expects “material downside” risks to future revenue and earnings resulting from loss of existing customers, lower contract wins and higher remediation costs.

Currently, the cash impact of refunds and prior year earnings adjustments is unknown, but a reversal of up to -GBP58.2m of previously recognised revenue in FY23/FY24 is expected. FY25 revenue reversal adjustments up to -GBP19.4m is also expected.

As of October 31, cash on hand stood at over $148.3m with no debt drawn.

Ord Minnett has withdrawn its rating on Corporate Travel Management due to the lack of sufficient information and the ongoing suspension of the stock from trading on the ASX, awaiting the release of the FY25 accounts.

The company anticipates negative adjustments of around -$171m pre-tax for FY23-FY25, which reflect revenue reversals from FY23/FY24 at around -GBP$58.2m and -GBP$19.4m in FY2. There’s also a further A&NZ credit loss provision of -$13.9m for FY25, not previously announced.

The analyst reckons, on current circumstances, things are going to get “worse before they get better.”

Shaw and Partners suggests Corporate Travel Management faces substantial financial account restatements after KPMG identified revenue-recognition failures across its UK operations.

It’s thought the reversal of around -GBP80m in revenue and potential client refunds materially increases near-term financial and reputational risk.

The broker sees FY25 guidance withdrawal and the likelihood the company will not resume trading in 2025 as reinforcing uncertainty, while cash impacts remain unclear despite available liquidity.

Shaw applies a -50% discount to its valuation, reducing the broker’s price target to $7.60 from $15.20. Rating downgraded to Sell from Buy.

FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED ((FBU)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Citi .B/H/S: 0/3/1

Citi reckons RBNZ interest rate cuts have steadied the housing market, with data showing a mild improvement. But risks persist, including high consents versus weak macro, elevated inventories, and a widening new-build premium over existing homes. 

The broker trimmed Fletcher Building’s FY26 EBIT forecast by -7% and FY27 by -5% after factoring in a slower recovery.

Rating downgraded to Neutral from Buy. Target price unchanged at NZ$3.50.

MONASH IVF GROUP LIMITED ((MVF)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Macquarie downgrades Monash IVF to Neutral from Outperform post the rejection of the 80c per share bid from a consortium including Genesis Capital and WH Soul Pattinson ((SOL)). They currently control around 91.6% of the company.

The board believes the bid fundamentally undervalues the business.

The analyst notes market conditions have changed since Virtus sold at around 11.9x EV/EBITDA, versus Monash, which is currently valued around 8.1x.

The outlook for IVF has not altered since 2022, and numerous incidents have raised concerns over customer acquisition and increased regulatory outcomes.

Target price remains at 94c.

PERSEUS MINING LIMITED ((PRU)) Downgrade to Lighten from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/1/0

Perseus Mining announced a counter bid for Predictive Discovery ((PDI)) at 0.1360 Perseus share per Predictive share, valuing the latter at $0.76/share, Ord Minnett observes.

Predictive’s board calls Perseus’s offer superior, and the existing bidder Robex Resources ((RXR)) has five business days to match. The broker sees the bid as value-accretive for Perseus because its lower WACC and proven production track record make Bankan more valuable in its hands.

The broker’s view is both bidders could pay more, with Perseus having more flexibility.

Target unchanged at $4.60. Rating downgraded to Lighten from Hold following 14% rise in the share price since October.

STEP ONE CLOTHING LIMITED ((STP)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter and Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 0/2/0

Management at Step One Clothing has issued 1H revenue guidance of $30-33m compared to Bell Potter’s $49.9m forecast. Earnings (EBITDA) are now expected in the range of a -$9m to -$11m loss vs the broker’s $8m profit estimate.

Bell Potter attributes the downgrades to a -$10m inventory write-down linked to failed discounting and extremely weak November trading in a key sales period.

Slowing customer growth and lower basket sizes underpin the analysts’ reduced revenue forecasts, while the -$10m provision and heavier promotions drive lower margin assumptions.

Long-term earnings margins are seen reverting to high single-digit as the Australian market matures and UK expansion becomes the primary growth avenue.

Bell Potter cuts its target price to 30c from 85c and downgrades to a Hold rating from Buy.

Morgans lowers its target for Step One Clothing to 30c from 95c and downgrades to Hold from Speculative Buy following a materially weaker-than-expected trading update for 1H26.

The analyst notes the crucial Black Friday period materially underperformed and highlights a -$10m inventory provision after clearance initiatives failed to meet expectations.

The broker’s earnings forecasts for FY26-28 are materially reduced, reflecting slower growth assumptions and uncertainty around the company’s strategic direction.

A reset year is seen ahead, with slower growth and greater reliance on product expansion and improving brand strength.

SOUTHERN CROSS ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING LIMITED ((SXE)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Southern Cross Electrical Engineering lost arbitration against the CPB Dragados Samsung Joint Venture (CDSJV) over extra WestConnex M5 tunnel costs incurred by its subsidiary, Heyday.

The ruling hinged on strict time-bar claim deadlines, Bell Potter notes. The result is $22m of remaining delay/variation costs won’t be recovered, and $15m of prior security-payment recognised as revenue must be repaid, along with interest.

The company cut its underlying EBITDA guidance for FY26 to $21-24m from $65-68m, with the impacts to be recognised in 1H26 accounts.

Target cut to $2.35 from $2.50. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=219,142,178,100,251,251,172,139&h0=131,146,171,111,166,153,26,177&s0=11,24,43,51,33,30,6,33″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″>

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