Weekly Reports | Dec 15 2025
This story features 29METALS LIMITED, and other companies.
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The company is included in ALL-ORDS
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday December 8 to Friday December 12, 2025
Total Upgrades: 18
Total Downgrades: 6
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.87%; Hold 30.26%; Sell 7.87%
For the week ending Friday, 12th December 2025, FNArena registered no less than 18 rating upgrades for individual ASX-listed companies versus six downgrades only.
A largely moribund share market in which many quality and growth stocks remain out of favour (weaker share prices) is but part of the explanation. A freshly reborn commodities segment (after a long period of hibernation) is providing another ingredient; and a very prominent one.
13 of the 18 upgrades involve commodity producers and developers. Same applies for five out of the six downgrades. Australia is experiencing another up-cycle for miners and aspiring developers, and it shows.
Lithium, uranium, and gold are responsible for the bulk of companies involved, with downgrades descending upon Alcoa Corp, Deterra Royalties, Hastings Technology Metals, Predictive Discovery and Whitehaven Coal. The sixth company, civil contractor Symal Group, derives some revenues from the resources sector too.
One third of upgrades only moved to Neutral/Hold from Sell.
Curious about those rating upgrades for non-resources stocks? Ebos Group and Sigma Healthcare, plus National Storage, Netwealth Group, and PolyNovo.
The week’s top ten of largest increases to price targets is a 100%, no exceptions, mining affair.
The negative side includes companies whose market updates didn’t meet analysts’ expectations, with perennially disappointer Barcor on top, and Premier Investments, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, and Metcash further down the list, plus Impedimed, Pinnacle Investment Management Group, and Bubs Australia.
Could there be a sharper contrast, even if we tried?
The local mining sector received a big boost from analysts updating their pricing projections for the year(s) ahead, which mostly involves upgrades to forecasts. The week past saw Macquarie, Barrenjoey/Ord Minnett and UBS release their latest revisions.
A similar contrast, albeit less extreme, characterised the week for positive and negative amendments to earnings forecasts. The positive top 10 is exclusively a mining affair, while the negative top 10 is first led by Deep Yellow, Chalice Mining and Lotus Resources before Impedimed and Bapcor show up in positions four and five.
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure, Greatland Resources, Premier Investments, Megaport, and Steadfast Group complete the week’s bottom ten for earnings forecasts.
Whether this pattern continues in the few weeks remaining for the calendar year is probably dependent on whether other brokers decide to get their sector updates out before the annual break, or whether this can wait until early in the new year.
Upgrade
29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/1
Ord Minnett has upgraded its 2026 commodity outlook after a year of supply-driven price strength, reflecting increased confidence amid improving, though uneven, global growth.
Gold is the standout, with the 2026 price forecast lifted 8% to US$4,200/oz, broadly in line with spot. Copper price forecast for 2026 lifted by 3% and coking coal by 2%, while nickel price trimmed by -4% and NdPr by -2%.
The broker revised the long-run forecast for AUD to US$0.70 from US$0.75, which is a key driver of earnings and valuation upgrades across the sector.
Overall, the broker reckons ongoing supply disruptions and underinvestment will support firmer commodity prices and stronger miner cash flows.
No change to 29Metals EPS forecasts for FY25-26. Rating upgraded to Hold from Lighten, and target rises to 45c from 35c.
DEEP YELLOW LIMITED ((DYL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/0/0
Ord Minnett has upgraded its 2026 commodity outlook after a year of supply-driven price strength, reflecting increased confidence amid improving, though uneven, global growth.
Gold is the standout, with the 2026 price forecast lifted 8% to US$4,200/oz, broadly in line with spot. Copper price forecast for 2026 lifted by 3% and coking coal by 2%, while nickel price trimmed by -4% and NdPr by -2%.
The broker revised the long-run forecast for AUD to US$0.70 from US$0.75, which is a key driver of earnings and valuation upgrades across the sector.
Overall, the broker reckons ongoing supply disruptions and underinvestment will support firmer commodity prices and stronger miner cash flows.
For Deep Yellow, the broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 0.5% and FY27 by 0.2%. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold, and target price is $2.
EBOS GROUP LIMITED ((EBO)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Given the share price weakness, Ebos Group is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate, with an unchanged $34.82 price target.
Morgans believes Ebos is a more attractive proposition to the value investor while Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)) will appeal more to a growth investor.
The group is positioned for FY26 as a transition year, moving on from the loss of the Chemist Warehouse contract and large investment in its distribution centre network.
The analyst notes lower capex and an improved return on capital employed of around 15% is anticipated for FY27 and should underwrite longer term shareholder value.
Post the -30% fall in the share price since the August result, Ebos is trading one standard deviation below its 10 year average PE of 22x. The analyst likes the business (and owns the shares) seeing a defensive business returning to good growth with a solid yield.
IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/1
UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).
The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.
The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.
For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.
Target price for IGO Ltd is lifted to $7.20 from $5.20, previously and rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
LIONTOWN LIMITED ((LTR)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/3
UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).
The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.
The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.
For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.
Liontown is upgraded to Buy from Sell with the target price raised to $1.80 from 80c previously.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS and Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/1
UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).
The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.
The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.
For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.
UBS upgrades Mineral Resources to Buy from Neutral with a lift in target price to $58.50 from $52.60.
Macquarie lifts iron ore price forecast for 2026 by 4% to US$93/t due to around 3% stronger demand from China.
Despite the upgrade, the broker remains cautious on spot prices with forecasts for 2027 to 2029 below consensus. The long-term price outlook is unchanged at US$78/t.
From a sector basis, the analyst is even-weighted in the short term and underweight in the medium to long term.
Regarding lithium, the broker has a ‘buy-the-dip’ stance.
Macquarie upgrades Mineral Resources to Neutral from Underperform. Target lifted to $51 from $47.
NEWMONT CORPORATION REGISTERED ((NEM)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Macquarie is overweight on gold, underweight lithium, even weight iron ore, met coal, thermal coal, and nickel.
Longer term, the broker is overweight aluminium, nickel and lithium.
In large caps, Rio Tinto ((RIO)) is preferred over BHP Group ((BHP)), South32 ((S32)) outright, and Newmont Corp over Northern Star Resources ((NST)) due to its relatively attractive valuation.
Newmont Corp is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. The broker’s gold price forecast increases 22% for 2026 to US$4,225/oz, 8% above consensus. Target price is raised 14% to $175.
NATIONAL STORAGE REIT ((NSR)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 4/1/0
National Storage REIT is upgraded to Equal-weight from Underweight with a higher target of $2.86 from $2.55 by Morgan Stanley. It aligns with the takeover Scheme Implementation Deed entered into by the REIT and the GIC/Brookfield consortium.
The deal is subject to FIRB approval, anticipated over the next one to two months, and by the Overseas Investment Office in NZ. ACCC approval has been flagged as in place.
Industry view: In-Line.
NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED ((NWL)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/4/0
Bell Potter upgrades Netwealth Group to Buy from Hold with a higher target price of $31.50 from $30. The broker views the discounted valuation multiple ascribed to the stock as unwarranted.
Further, management has updated FUA to $123.8bn for Nov 10, and net flows are expected to come in around FY25 levels, which consensus estimates mirror.
The broker highlights First Guardian continues to weigh on the stock, but if net flows are retained, the company will be in a position to beat guidance and possibly consensus expectations.
ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED ((OBM)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.
The broker raises the Ora Banda Mining target price to $1.50 from $1.40. The stock is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
PLS GROUP LIMITED ((PLS)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/2
UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).
The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.
The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.
For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.
Target price for PLS Group is upgraded to $4 from $2.40 with the rating lifted to Neutral from Sell.
POLYNOVO LIMITED ((PNV)) Upgrade to Buy from Speculative Buy by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Morgans upgraded PolyNovo to Buy from Speculative Buy as Board/leadership changes, including new CEO Bruce Peatey, are expected to restore stability and governance. Target rises to $2.03 from $1.69 as the previously applied -20% discount to valuation is removed.
The broker believes the strong 1Q26 result, with sales up 33%, EBITDA positive and $23.2m cash, supports confidence in FY26 guidance.
A new Melbourne plant with 5x capacity is built and due for commissioning in 2H26, and the company plans to file an FDA PMA for full-thickness burns, with approval expected in late 2026.
RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED ((RSG)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.
Resolute Mining is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral with a higher target price of $1.35 from $1.25.
SOUTH32 LIMITED ((S32)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Macquarie is overweight on gold, underweight lithium, even weight iron ore, met coal, thermal coal, and nickel.
Longer term, the broker is overweight aluminium, nickel and lithium.
In large caps, Rio Tinto is preferred over BHP Group ((BHP)), South32 outright, and Newmont Corp ((NEM)) over Northern Star Resources ((NST)).
Macquarie upgrades South32 to Outperform from Neutral and lowers EPS estimates by -9% for FY26 on lower base metal prices. Target price rises to $3.70 from $3.20.
SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED ((SIG)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/1
Given the share price weakness, Sigma Healthcare is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate, with an unchanged $3.39 price target.
Morgans estimates Sigma will generate EPS growth of around 20% over the next three years, which makes it one of the highest growth companies in the ASX200 healthcare sector.
The analyst sees union negotiations at Chemist Warehouse as mostly noise and expects any agreement to have minimal impact on Sigma.
Management noted FY26 has commenced strongly, with Chemist Warehouse sales up 17.9% and like-for-like sales up 14.7% versus the broker’s forecast at 7% growth.
The business is also well positioned for Christmas, the company stated, which gives Morgans confidence that the FY26 sales growth forecast of 11.4% can be achieved, with earnings (EBIT) growth of 23.6%.
WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED ((WAF)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Macquarie remains Overweight gold with a 22% rise in the price forecast for 2026 to US$4,225/oz which is 8% above consensus.
West African Resources is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform with a higher target price of $3.20 from $3.
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/1
Macquarie lifted thermal coal forecasts for 2026 to US$107/t with medium/long-term price estimates maintained near US$93/t to US$100/t. The broker is assuming broadly balanced supply/demand but persistent 40Mt surpluses.
In the case of Met coal, the broker left near-term premium hard coking coal forecast at US$198/t in 2026 and US$210-220/t for 2027-29, expecting modest demand growth vs larger supply increases. Long-term view is US$200/t.
For Whitehaven Coal, the broker lifted FY26-27 EPS forecasts sharply on stronger near-term view on thermal coal forecasts. The broker is more constructive on cost trends in the medium-term.
Target price lifted to $8 from $7. Rating upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
See also WHC downgrade.
Downgrade
ALCOA CORPORATION ((AAI)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Ord Minnett has upgraded its 2026 commodity outlook after a year of supply-driven price strength, reflecting increased confidence amid improving, though uneven, global growth.
Gold is the standout, with the 2026 price forecast lifted 8% to US$4,200/oz, broadly in line with spot. Copper price forecast for 2026 lifted by 3% and coking coal by 2%, while nickel price trimmed by -4% and NdPr by -2%.
The broker revised the long-run forecast for AUD to US$0.70 from US$0.75, which is a key driver of earnings and valuation upgrades across the sector.
Overall, the broker reckons ongoing supply disruptions and underinvestment will support firmer commodity prices and stronger miner cash flows.
EPS forecast for Alcoa for FY25 lifted by 8.5% and for FY26 by 15.9%. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy, and the new target price is $71.50.
DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/1
The team of resources analysts at UBS has chosen lithium as the key investment pick for 2026. While the view remains constructive on gold, next year is dubbed the year for base metals, not so much for bulk commodities.
UBS prefers copper and aluminium. The outlook for uranium is equally seen as positive.
Today’s general update has pushed forecasts up across the spectrum (on mostly higher average pricing projections) with only a few changes in ratings for individual stocks. Not all valuations/price targets have been affected.
Deterra Royalties has been downgraded to Sell from Neutral. The new price target is $3.95, up from $3.75 previously.
HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED ((HAS)) Downgrade to Sell from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/0/1
Ord Minnett has upgraded its 2026 commodity outlook after a year of supply-driven price strength, reflecting increased confidence amid improving, though uneven, global growth.
Gold is the standout, with the 2026 price forecast lifted 8% to US$4,200/oz, broadly in line with spot. Copper price forecast for 2026 lifted by 3% and coking coal by 2%, while nickel price trimmed by -4% and NdPr by -2%.
The broker revised the long-run forecast for AUD to US$0.70 from US$0.75, which is a key driver of earnings and valuation upgrades across the sector.
Overall, the broker reckons ongoing supply disruptions and underinvestment will support firmer commodity prices and stronger miner cash flows.
For Hastings Technology Metals, the broker made no change to forecasts. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold, and target raised to 32c from 28c.
PREDICTIVE DISCOVERY LIMITED ((PDI)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/0
Ord Minnett has upgraded its 2026 commodity outlook after a year of supply-driven price strength, reflecting increased confidence amid improving, though uneven, global growth.
Gold is the standout, with the 2026 price forecast lifted 8% to US$4,200/oz, broadly in line with spot. Copper price forecast for 2026 lifted by 3% and coking coal by 2%, while nickel price trimmed by -4% and NdPr by -2%.
The broker revised the long-run forecast for AUD to US$0.70 from US$0.75, which is a key driver of earnings and valuation upgrades across the sector.
Overall, the broker reckons ongoing supply disruptions and underinvestment will support firmer commodity prices and stronger miner cash flows.
No change to forecasts for Predictive Discovery. Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy, and target price is 74c.
SYMAL GROUP LIMITED ((SYL)) Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Symal Group is acquiring Timms Group and L&D Contracting for $28m upfront, valuing the deal at up to 3.5x EV/EBITDA, with $28m of assets included, Ord Minnett notes.
The purchase boosts Symal’s footprint in Southeast QLD civil/infrastructure ahead of a major construction upswing, supported by a cited $103.9bn QLD project pipeline over 5 years.
The broker highlights a key differentiator is a long-term exclusive tipping-site contract, likely to be valuable as big builds (incl. 2032 Olympics) ramp up.
Target rises to $3.10 from $2.50 after upgrading earnings forecasts to account for the acquisition. Rating downgraded to Accumulate from Buy on valuation grounds.
WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED ((WHC)) Downgrade to Sell from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 4/2/1
The team of resources analysts at UBS has chosen lithium as the key investment pick for 2026. While the view remains constructive on gold, next year is dubbed the year for base metals, not so much for bulk commodities.
UBS prefers copper and aluminium. The outlook for uranium is equally seen as positive.
Today’s general update has pushed forecasts up across the spectrum (on mostly higher average pricing projections) with only a few changes in ratings for individual stocks.
For Whitehaven Coal, the broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 27% and FY27 by 32%. Target lifted to $7.15 from $6.95.
Rating downgraded to Sell from Neutral.
See also WHC upgrade.
| Total Recommendations | Recommendation Changes |
| Broker Recommendation Breakup <img alt="3dbar" src="https://www.fnarena.com/charts/fnarena/3dbar.php?mydata=1&mylabels=BellPotter,Citi,Macquarie,MorganStanley,Morgans,OrdMinnett,ShawandPartners,UBS&b0=223,142,182,100,253,250,173,141&h0=130,145,168,112,166,153,26,176&s0=11,24,41,50,33,32,6,32″ style=”border:1px solid #000000″> | |
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CHARTS
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: 29M - 29METALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: AAI - ALCOA CORPORATION
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: BHP - BHP GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DRR - DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: DYL - DEEP YELLOW LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EBO - EBOS GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: HAS - HASTINGS TECHNOLOGY METALS LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: IGO - IGO LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: LTR - LIONTOWN LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: MIN - MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NEM - NEWMONT CORPORATION REGISTERED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NSR - NATIONAL STORAGE REIT
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NST - NORTHERN STAR RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: NWL - NETWEALTH GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: OBM - ORA BANDA MINING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PDI - PREDICTIVE DISCOVERY LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PLS - PLS GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: PNV - POLYNOVO LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RIO - RIO TINTO LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: RSG - RESOLUTE MINING LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: S32 - SOUTH32 LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SIG - SIGMA HEALTHCARE LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: SYL - SYMAL GROUP LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WAF - WEST AFRICAN RESOURCES LIMITED
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: WHC - WHITEHAVEN COAL LIMITED