Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday December 8 to Friday December 12, 2025
Total Upgrades: 18
Total Downgrades: 6
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 61.87%; Hold 30.26%; Sell 7.87%
For the week ending Friday, 12th December 2025, FNArena registered no less than 18 rating upgrades for individual ASX-listed companies versus six downgrades only.
A largely moribund share market in which many quality and growth stocks remain out of favour (weaker share prices) is but part of the explanation. A freshly reborn commodities segment (after a long period of hibernation) is providing another ingredient; and a very prominent one.
13 of the 18 upgrades involve commodity producers and developers. Same applies for five out of the six downgrades. Australia is experiencing another up-cycle for miners and aspiring developers, and it shows.
Lithium, uranium, and gold are responsible for the bulk of companies involved, with downgrades descending upon Alcoa Corp, Deterra Royalties, Hastings Technology Metals, Predictive Discovery and Whitehaven Coal. The sixth company, civil contractor Symal Group, derives some revenues from the resources sector too.
One third of upgrades only moved to Neutral/Hold from Sell.
Curious about those rating upgrades for non-resources stocks? Ebos Group and Sigma Healthcare, plus National Storage, Netwealth Group, and PolyNovo.
The week's top ten of largest increases to price targets is a 100%, no exceptions, mining affair.
The negative side includes companies whose market updates didn't meet analysts' expectations, with perennially disappointer Barcor on top, and Premier Investments, Bendigo & Adelaide Bank, and Metcash further down the list, plus Impedimed, Pinnacle Investment Management Group, and Bubs Australia.
Could there be a sharper contrast, even if we tried?
The local mining sector received a big boost from analysts updating their pricing projections for the year(s) ahead, which mostly involves upgrades to forecasts. The week past saw Macquarie, Barrenjoey/Ord Minnett and UBS release their latest revisions.
A similar contrast, albeit less extreme, characterised the week for positive and negative amendments to earnings forecasts. The positive top 10 is exclusively a mining affair, while the negative top 10 is first led by Deep Yellow, Chalice Mining and Lotus Resources before Impedimed and Bapcor show up in positions four and five.
Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure, Greatland Resources, Premier Investments, Megaport, and Steadfast Group complete the week's bottom ten for earnings forecasts.
Whether this pattern continues in the few weeks remaining for the calendar year is probably dependent on whether other brokers decide to get their sector updates out before the annual break, or whether this can wait until early in the new year.
Upgrade
29METALS LIMITED ((29M)) Upgrade to Hold from Lighten by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/1
Ord Minnett has upgraded its 2026 commodity outlook after a year of supply-driven price strength, reflecting increased confidence amid improving, though uneven, global growth.
Gold is the standout, with the 2026 price forecast lifted 8% to US$4,200/oz, broadly in line with spot. Copper price forecast for 2026 lifted by 3% and coking coal by 2%, while nickel price trimmed by -4% and NdPr by -2%.
The broker revised the long-run forecast for AUD to US$0.70 from US$0.75, which is a key driver of earnings and valuation upgrades across the sector.
Overall, the broker reckons ongoing supply disruptions and underinvestment will support firmer commodity prices and stronger miner cash flows.
No change to 29Metals EPS forecasts for FY25-26. Rating upgraded to Hold from Lighten, and target rises to 45c from 35c.
DEEP YELLOW LIMITED ((DYL)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/0/0
Ord Minnett has upgraded its 2026 commodity outlook after a year of supply-driven price strength, reflecting increased confidence amid improving, though uneven, global growth.
Gold is the standout, with the 2026 price forecast lifted 8% to US$4,200/oz, broadly in line with spot. Copper price forecast for 2026 lifted by 3% and coking coal by 2%, while nickel price trimmed by -4% and NdPr by -2%.
The broker revised the long-run forecast for AUD to US$0.70 from US$0.75, which is a key driver of earnings and valuation upgrades across the sector.
Overall, the broker reckons ongoing supply disruptions and underinvestment will support firmer commodity prices and stronger miner cash flows.
For Deep Yellow, the broker lifted FY26 EPS forecast by 0.5% and FY27 by 0.2%. Rating upgraded to Accumulate from Hold, and target price is $2.
EBOS GROUP LIMITED ((EBO)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/1/0
Given the share price weakness, Ebos Group is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate, with an unchanged $34.82 price target.
Morgans believes Ebos is a more attractive proposition to the value investor while Sigma Healthcare ((SIG)) will appeal more to a growth investor.
The group is positioned for FY26 as a transition year, moving on from the loss of the Chemist Warehouse contract and large investment in its distribution centre network.
The analyst notes lower capex and an improved return on capital employed of around 15% is anticipated for FY27 and should underwrite longer term shareholder value.
Post the -30% fall in the share price since the August result, Ebos is trading one standard deviation below its 10 year average PE of 22x. The analyst likes the business (and owns the shares) seeing a defensive business returning to good growth with a solid yield.
IGO LIMITED ((IGO)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/1
UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).
The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.
The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.
For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.
Target price for IGO Ltd is lifted to $7.20 from $5.20, previously and rating upgraded to Neutral from Sell.
LIONTOWN LIMITED ((LTR)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/1/3
UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).
The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.
The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.
For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.
Liontown is upgraded to Buy from Sell with the target price raised to $1.80 from 80c previously.
MINERAL RESOURCES LIMITED ((MIN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS and Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 4/2/1
UBS has upgraded its price deck by 11% in lithium demand, underpinned by demand from battery energy storage systems (BESS).
The broker anticipates the market to move into deficit from 2026 onwards and has raised lithium price forecasts. It is now US$1800, US$2850, US$2650/t for 2026, 2027, 2028, up 64%, 148% and 94%, respectively, from previous forecasts for SC6 CFR China prices.
The long-term incentive price remains unchanged at US$1200/t.
For lithium stocks, UBS is now forecasting free cash flow yields of up to 18% for pure play lithium stocks.
UBS upgrades Mineral Resources to Buy from Neutral with a lift in target price to $58.50 from $52.60.
Macquarie lifts iron ore price forecast for 2026 by 4% to US$93/t due to around 3% stronger demand from China.
Despite the upgrade, the broker remains cautious on spot prices with forecasts for 2027 to 2029 below consensus. The long-term price outlook is unchanged at US$78/t.
From a sector basis, the analyst is even-weighted in the short term and underweight in the medium to long term.
Regarding lithium, the broker has a 'buy-the-dip' stance.
Macquarie upgrades Mineral Resources to Neutral from Underperform. Target lifted to $51 from $47.
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