Technicals | 10:40 AM
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
We enter the home straight of 2025 with an upside bias, supported by bullish seasonals and the rebound seen late last week from the 24,627 low.
Looking ahead, we are watching for a convincing break above downtrend resistance from the 29 October 26,182 high currently in the 25,740/50 region.
This is being reinforced by the December 10 high of 25,835.
As such, a sustained break above the 25,750/25,850 resistance band would indicate the uptrend has resumed, targeting a move towards 27,000.
Until then, allow the correction to play out.
ASX200
After reaching an all-time high of 9115 in mid-October, the ASX200 hit a low of 8383 on November 21, resulting in a -7.7% pullback — its deepest correction since April.
Following its bounce and hold from the critical 8550/60 support area last week, the rally this week has taken on distinctly more impulsive qualities.
With volumes wafer thin in holiday trading, allow the “Santa Claus rally” to continue higher towards our 8850 end of year target, setting the platform for a retest and break of the 9115 record high in 2026.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil is trading higher at US$58.42 (up 0.81%), extending its rebounding from last week’s five-year low of US$54.98.
Overnight gains were supported by last night’s robust US Q3 GDP print against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions, as the US enforces its blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and Ukraine continues to target Russian oil infrastructure.
Additionally, hopes of a near-term peace deal between Ukraine and Russia are fading ahead of year-end.
From Wednesday of last week, we warned that Tuesdays sell-off to the US$54.98 low was likely a false break lower and our upside target of US$58.00–US$58.20 has now been achieved.
Gold
Gold is trading higher at US$4495 (up 1.17%), extending its year-to-date gains to more than 70% — though this pales in comparison to silver’s remarkable 147% advance after the white metal struck a fresh record high of US$71.46 overnight.
The latest leg of the rally has been fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions (as discussed in the crude oil section) and expectations for multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
Having broken through the key US$4375–US$4385/oz resistance zone, gold is now testing the psychological US$4500 level, with further upside potential toward US$4600 into year end.
Technical limitations
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