Weekly Reports | 10:30 AM
A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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NICKEL INDUSTRIES LIMITED ((NIC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Canaccord Genuity.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Canaccord Genuity notes base metals have continued to perform strongly, supported by global growth, with copper a standout due to tight supply, surging demand and zero TCRCs highlighting concentrate scarcity. TCRC stands for Treatment and Refining Charges.
The broker revised its base metals outlook, lifting near-term prices across all metals (except lead) and raising long-term assumptions for copper, aluminium, cobalt and tin. Copper’s long-term price forecast increased by 22% to US$5.50/lb to reflect a structural market shift.
At Nickel Industries' December quarterly, the broker expects operational EBITDA to decline -4% to US$80m due to weaker nickel prices, driving a -36% fall in cash to US$633m.
Rating upgraded to Buy from Hold. Target rises to $1.05 from $0.80 on a higher nickel price forecast and trimming of the discount rate to 11% from 12%.
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CHAMPION IRON LIMITED ((CIA)) Downgrade to Overweight from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden analysts note what they view as "surprising" the resilience in Chinese demand for seaborne iron ore imports in the face of soft steel demand which continues to underpin iron ore prices above US$100/t.
The analysts mark to market the Dec 2025 quarter 58% Fe price to around US$95/t and a long term assumption of US$64/t (real) by FY29 which is below consensus and is expected to remain above US$70/t through FY28.
Champion Iron is expected to report Dec qtr production of 3.6wmt and sales of 3.86m dmt which is flat on the prior quarter. Realised pricing is forecast at CA$116/dmt, down -9% q/q due to higher spot exposure and a compressed premium for P65 (Platts IODEX 65% iron ore price benchmark).
The broker forecasts earnings (EBITDA) to slip by -26% q/q which is below consensus by -12%. A rise in 65% iron ore assumptions lifts the analysts'net profit forecasts by 6%-11% for FY26-FY28.
Jarden prefers Champion over the other iron ore producers, trading a marginal premium to its valuation with target set at $5.70. Stock is downgraded to Overweight from Buy.
ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) Downgrade to Underweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Endeavour Group served up weaker than expected 1H26 earnings guidance with EBIT down around -6% y/y with Jarden highlighting retail sales rose 0.6% y/y or 2.2% including cycling of strikes in response to around -$11m in price changes in 2Q26 and a cut in retail gross margin.
Hotels remain the upbeat segment with growth in gaming machine spending nationally. The weather in January is expected to drive further strength, the analyst notes.
The broker continues to like the business and sees it as a quality operator against a challenging macro backdrop, cutting earnings forecasts to align with the guidance downgrade, including management's comments on price discounting on margins.
Target price is lowered to $3.30 from $3.60 with a downgrade in the rating to Underweight from Neutral.
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