Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor FNArena
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday January 12 to Friday January 16, 2026
Total Upgrades: 15
Total Downgrades: 12
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 62.89%; Hold 29.39%; Sell 7.72%
Australia is gradually waking up from last year's end-of-year holiday break.
For the week ending Friday, 16th January 2026, FNArena registered no less than 15 upgrades in ratings for ASX-listed stocks. All but two shifted to Buy with Baby Bunting and PLS Group (formerly Pilbara Minerals) the two exceptions that didn't move beyond Neutral/Hold.
Twelve downgrades included four ratings moving to Sell. Receivers were Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Boss Energy, Endeavour Group, and Treasury Wine Estates.
This early into the new calendar year, the three Dominant Themes are: upgrades for commodity pricing projections, companies issuing disappointing market updates (mostly), and initial re-appraisals and previews ahead of the upcoming February results season.
Five of the upgrades went to financials, including two banks, and three REITs and property owners. Only Monadelphous and PLS Group can be directly linked to the resurgence in cyclical commodities.
Among the downgrades one also finds Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Endeavour Group, and Super Retail Group; all three also received an upgrade during the week.
Maybe more important is the observation four resources stocks are among the downgrades.
The presence of Amcor in changes to target prices and forecasts should be ignored. Its shares are about to consolidate 5-for-1 and this is playing havoc because of analysts adjusting for the change (not yet reflected in today's share price).
Resources continue to dominate the table for largest positive adjustments to valuations and price targets. The one exception is Codan, thanks to a better-than-anticipated operational update ahead of February.
Lithium exposures are noticeably included in the week's Top Ten (nine minus Amcor).
The table for negative adjustments has Super Retail on top (bottom?) following yet another disappointing market update.
Here uranium companies Boss Energy and Lotus Resources are the two sole commodity representatives.
Negative adjustments on average are smaller than positive increases for the week.
Regal Partners and Codan are the two notable exceptions when it comes to upgrades to earnings forecasts. In particular PLS Group (63%), Greatland Resources (53%) and Regal Partners (49%) enjoyed some eye-catching re-adjustments, followed by Deep Yellow and Liontown on 25% and 24% increases.
On the opposite side, Paladin Energy stands out with its consensus forecast dropping by -20%, followed by TPG Telecom on -15%. Super Retail and Endeavour Group --both having issued disappointing trading updates-- follow next.
Gold producer Northern Star, which also started 2026 on a disappointing note, is equally included.
In summary: earnings forecasts are on the rise ahead of the February results season, but it's predominantly linked to mining companies as analysts are preparing for/adjusting to a better environment ahead.
Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 62.89%. With only 7.72% in Sell ratings, this leaves less than 30% for Neutral/Holds.
Morgan Stanley and UBS are the only two where Buy ratings do not represent the largest percentage of total ratings. This is highly unusual with local indices near an all-time record high and most likely linked to the polarised nature of the market and the narrow group of companies that has done most of the lifting post covid.
If, as suggested by many, the global bull market in equities remains poised to broaden out and include many of yesteryear's laggards, including on the ASX, it'll be interesting to observe whether this also results in a normalising of broker ratings in line with historically more prevalent trends and percentages.
Upgrade
AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 3/2/0
Citi expects further capital return initiatives with AMP's FY25 result, supported by strong platform flows, cost control, and stabilising bank earnings.
Attractions are seen despite low bank returns, with the broker citing scope for platform multiple expansion as the share price has fallen.
The broker's forecast earnings tweaks are modest after mark-to-market and debt repayment adjustments.
Citi keeps its $2.10 target and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.
ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/2/1
Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance looks unlikely in 2026 given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.
The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.
The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.
Citi raises its target for ANZ Bank to $40.30 from $37.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral citing benefits into 2026 from strong tailwinds, driven by disciplined execution on costs and strategy. The bank's valuation is also seen as undemanding relative to peer.
Among the majors, the broker's order of preference is ANZ, Westpac, National Australia Bank and CommBank.
BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED ((BBN)) Upgrade to Hold from Trim by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/3/0
Following the recent share price pullback, Morgans upgraded Baby Bunting's rating to Hold from Trim.
The broker notes refurbished stores continue to outperform expectations, with the initial three delivering 30% sales growth, and further performance updates expected at the 1H26 result.
No change to forecasts or valuation, with risk–reward now considered as more balanced at 14x FY27 estimated PE. Target price $2.70.
This report was published Friday.
BANK OF QUEENSLAND LIMITED ((BOQ)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/2/2
Citi believes ASX-listed bank outperformance is unlikely in 2026 given relatively full valuations, even as the broader macro backdrop remains supportive.
The broker points to forecasts for two rate rises, alongside strong aggregate demand and labour conditions, which are expected to underpin net interest margins (NIMs), credit growth and asset quality.
The analysts note valuation concerns persist, yet argue absolute multiples may be a weak signal into 2026 amid fundamental and relative sector support.
Citi raises its target for Bank of Queensland to $7.15 from $7.00 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral citing efficient execution on a targeted strategy to lift medium-term returns.
Capital deployment into business banking is being prioritised, explain the analysts, while enhancing retail banking profitability.
Among challengers and regional banks, the broker prefers Judo Capital and Bank of Queensland, both rated Buy, while Bendigo and Adelaide Bank is rated Sell.
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