Technicals | 10:37 AM
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis updates below.
By Tony Sycamore
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
As we have highlighted in our reports since returning last week, it was noticeable that the Nasdaq 100 had failed to break to new highs in 2026, despite both the S&P500 and the Dow Jones doing so, leaving signs of divergence between the three key US indices.
This has been followed overnight by a clean break below uptrend support from the November 23,854 low and a break below the year to date low of 25,086ish from Jan 2nd.
These developments have created a high degree of technical damage to the uptrend and open the way for the decline to extend towards support at 24,600/500, before a move towards a band of support 24,200/23,800.
To fully negate the downside risks and restore upside conviction, the Nasdaq100 would need a sustained move above resistance in the 25,650–25,850 region, encompassing recent swing highs and the underside of the broken uptrend line.
ASX200
From the 8383 low struck on November 21st, the ASX200 rebounded 531 points (6.3%) into Friday’s 8915.5 high – a move in line with our bullish expectations, driven principally by seasonal strength between mid-December and Mid-January and specifically the strong demand for our resource stocks.
However, following a soft start to this week the 8915.5 high appears to be gaining in significance. As such, it’s important that the current pullback holds uptrend support at 8750ish to keep the uptrend intact and to leave open a retest and break above the 8915.5 high.
Aware that a sustained break below the 8750-support area would be a negative development and open the way for a deeper decline, initially towards the 200-day moving average at 8622.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil is trading modestly higher at US$59.36 (+0.24%), easing from the US$60.51 intraday high it hit earlier in the session after Kazakhstan’s largest producer halted output at two of its largest operations following fires at power generation facilities.
The retreat came as it became clear the outage would be temporary, while broader market pressures persisted, including ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of a rise in US crude inventories later this morning following last week’s sharp build.
Following last week’s rejection of the upside, crude oil is likely to remain range-bound: trading below the 200-day moving average (currently hovering around US$62.20) —a key level it hasn’t cleared since August 2025— and above medium-term support at US$55.00/bbl coming from last year’s lows, for the foreseeable future.
Gold
Gold is trading higher at US$4,760 (up 1.91%) blasting through the US$4700 level on escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe over Greenland.
The rally was further powered by the signs of dislocation evident in the Japanese bond market yesterday, covered in the USD/JPY section above.
Securing Greenland remains a core priority for the current US administration, reducing the likelihood of swift resolution before the Feb 1 tariff deadline, ensuring risk premiums remain elevated in the meantime.
In this environment, gold’s role as safe-haven asset continues to shine, with momentum buyers likely to add fuel to the move towards the top of the trend channel viewed below at US$4850/oz.
Technical limitations
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