Weekly Reports | Feb 09 2026
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday February 2 to Friday February 6, 2026
Total Upgrades: 23
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 63.70%; Hold 28.45%; Sell 7.85%
For the week ending Friday, February 6, 2026, FNArena tracked twenty-three upgrades and fourteen downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
In the early stages of the February reporting season, there are around a dozen entries in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor (https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/06/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-06-02-2026/), including commentary on Centuria Office REIT which received two ratings upgrades by separate brokers last week following interim results.
Mineral Resources also received two ratings upgrades after a strong operating performance in the December quarter with realised prices for iron ore and lithium spodumene exceeding consensus estimates, along with improved cost control, Ord Minnett noted.
Macquarie raised its FY26 EPS forecast for the company by 30%, with further upgrades of between 28-67% across FY27-30 following portfolio-wide changes to pricing forecasts.
This broker’s target was raised to $70 from $56 on earnings forecast upgrades plus a lift in valuation multiples.
Mineral Resources appears fourth on the table for positive change to average target price, preceded by gold miners Ramelius Resources, Genesis Minerals, and Newmont Corp with respective increases of 20%, 16%, and 9%.
No less than four brokers in the FNArena database conducted commodity price reviews last week.
Following the January gold price rally, Morgans remains bullish despite a recent correction, upgrading its price forecasts across FY26-FY29, as well as longer-term.
The broker's focus is on disciplined producers with strong execution and production-led cash flow growth, rather than just current free cash flow.
In the large-cap space, Newmont Corp is preferred over Northern Star Resources, and in the mid-cap space it is Ramelius Resources. The broker's small-cap preference is Catalyst Metals.
Morgans upgraded its rating for Ramelius to Buy from Accumulate, while UBS downgraded to Neutral from Buy after setting a higher target price. (Note: the table below suggesting two downgrades is incorrect).
Ramelius is also one of the preferred gold exposures at Shaw and Partners, which raised its gold price forecast by 53.8% in 2026 and predicts US$6500/oz in 2027, up from US$3,600/oz.
The company pre-released its headline second quarter metrics last week, showing costs less than Ord Minnett’s forecasts. All-in sustaining costs of -$1,977/oz compare to -$2,500/oz for peers due to high grade deposits, explained the analyst.
As mentioned above, Newmont is preferred at Morgans. The broker’s target price was raised to $190 from $162 and its rating upgraded to Buy from Hold due to higher gold price forecasts. For the same reason, UBS also raised its forecasts and target for Newmont.
The average target for Genesis Minerals rose by 16% due to a combination of higher gold price forecasts and a “strong” December quarter operational report, according to Macquarie, with management on track to meet FY26 guidance.
On the flipside, the average target price for GrainCorp fell by nearly -16% last week after management provided earnings and profit guidance well below consensus estimates (profit warning).
Macquarie explained depressed supply chain margins have been a constant for the company over the past three years, driven by elevated global grain supplies, feeding into volumes with low prices inducing growers to move less grain through GrainCorp's system.
This broker lowered its target to $6.60 from $8.30 and downgraded to Neutral from Outperform given a lack of near-term catalysts to support a lift in margins and earnings growth, combined with expected normalisation for the upcoming season.
For a more fulsome coverage of broker opinions on GrainCorp see FNArena's article that is ready to be published later today.
Xero is currently providing a domestic example of the global turmoil for software company share prices and is placed second on the week's table for negative change to price target.
As explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/05/is-ai-nemesis-or-opportunity-for-xero/, management last week addressed central concerns around AI monetisation, disruption, and a stronger growth outlook for the recently acquired payments-led workflow platform Melio.
Turning to earnings forecasts by brokers, here in the general dairy/nutrition space, New Zealand-based dairy processor Synlait and Australian infant and baby food nutrition company Bubs Australia appear first and third for negative changes.
During a first half performance update (January year-end), management at Synlait noted manufacturing challenges at the Dunsandel facility (large-scale dairy processing), which have now been largely resolved, but related cost and operational impacts still weigh, explained Macquarie.
Lower relative returns for the company’s commodities portfolio are also impacting negatively, pointed out the analyst.
As a result of these disappointments, first half earnings guidance was lowered and loss guidance was raised.
Management at Bubs Australia offered no FY26 guidance during a second quarter update which showed strong US sales growth, but as explained by Shaw and Partners, offset by inventory and trading challenges in Australia, China and the rest of the world (ROW).
US infant formula growth was the main driver of revenue growth. Bell Potter raised its target to 18c from 17c and upgraded to Speculative Buy from Hold.
The percentage fall in Bubs’ projected earnings was exaggerated by the small forecast numbers involved, which helps explain the above positive commentary by analysts.
Uranium play Lotus Resources’ average target fell by -21% after a return to mining in the December quarter for the first time since 2014. Ord Minnett noted mill recoveries outperformed despite early start-up and acid supply issues.
Given production at nameplate levels and first U3O8 shipments have both been pushed back by one quarter, the broker trimmed its FY26 EPS forecast.
More positively, PLS Group and Bellevue Gold received a boost to average earnings forecasts of 51% and 9%, respectively.
Commenting on PLS Group's December quarter report, Macquarie noted sales were 6% ahead of consensus and realised prices materially exceeded expectations. The lithium producer benefited from lagged pricing and the January lithium price rally, while production was broadly in line, the broker highlighted. Management maintained FY26 guidance.
In the current quarter, the board will assess a potential restart at Ngungaju (processing plant), the Indigenous ownership and profit participation structure at the Pilgangoora lithium mine in Western Australia. Approval is contingent on confidence in sustained lithium market pricing, explained Macquarie.
The analyst at UBS likes Bellevue Gold as it approaches a cash "inflection point". This broker’s target rose by 20c to $2.25 on the back of higher gold price forecasts.
Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at a historically elevated percentage of 63.70%.
With only 7.85% in Sell ratings, this leaves 28.45% for Neutral/Holds.
Upgrade
ARENA REIT ((ARF)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 3/1/0
UBS upgrades Arena REIT to Buy from Neutral and the target edges down to $4.05 from $4.06, noting that instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.
The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%. A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by a more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.
The broker has taken a review of the earnings profile across its coverage and forecasts "solid" FY26-29 compound growth in EPS of 5.3%.
UBS assesses the key downside risk for Arena REIT is any acceleration in the supply of new childcare centres amid broad declines in centre occupancy.
BUBS AUSTRALIA LIMITED ((BUB)) Upgrade to Speculative Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Bubs Australia's Dec Q net revenue of $29.9m was up 4% year on year. US infant formula growth was up 46% to $17.4m and the main driver of revenue growth, Bell Potter notes.
Product manufacturing costs were up 60% and correspond to the previously disclosed requirement to reset inventory positions in the US. Bubs continues to progress with its US FDA application for permanent access.
Bell Potter upgrades to Buy (Speculative) from Hold. Dec Q revenue growth was consistent with expectations and new management looks to be increasing brand support, resulting in a more consistent US revenue profile.
Target rises to 18c from 17c.
CHARTER HALL GROUP ((CHC)) Upgrade to Buy from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/0
UBS upgrades Charter Hall to Buy from Sell and its target to $26.50 from $19.93, noting that instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.
The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.
A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by a more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.
The broker's analysis signals that once volatile performance and transaction fees are excluded, the REIT's funds management multiple is in line with its 10-year trailing average.
Coverage of Charter Hall has been transferred to Solomon Zhang with this note.
CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP ((CNI)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 1/4/0
UBS upgrades Centuria Capital to Neutral from Sell, reducing the target to $2.03 from $2.10, noting that instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.
The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.
A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.
The broker has taken a review of the earnings profile across its coverage and forecasts "solid" FY26-29 compound growth in EPS of 5.3%.
For Centuria Capital UBS believes the recent rate pivot will cause retail demand for fund product to soften and this will mean a slower recovery in earnings growth compared with expectations.
Still, valuation is now seen as largely reflecting these headwinds.
CENTURIA OFFICE REIT ((COF)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS and Upgrade to Hold from Sell by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/3/1
UBS upgrades Centuria Office REIT to Neutral from Sell, with the target reduced to $1.03 from $1.20.
The broker considers the "downtime" over FY25/26 has dragged on earnings yet, while there are leasing headwinds, the issues are known and largely priced in, suggesting the risk/reward is more balanced.
Instead of rate cuts the market focus is now on rate hikes, with in-house economists expecting the cash rate to lift by 50 basis points this year.
The rate backdrop may have turned less favourable for the real estate sector but the broker does not expect a repeat of 2022/23 when asset values corrected around -15-20%.
A lack of supply is expected to underpin income growth and rising debt costs should be countered by more proactive hedging/debt margin compression.
Centuria Office REIT's 1H26 result was marginally below expectations, though FY26 guidance was reaffirmed and leasing outcomes materially de-risked the previously flagged lease expiry cliff, Bell Potter highlights.
Balance sheet metrics improved with lower gearing, higher valuations, and NTA growth, supported by asset sales and positive revaluations. Pro-forma gearing fell to 42.5% from 44% in FY25, and property valuations rose 2.2%.
However, sizeable vacancies at key assets and remaining 2H26 expiries are likely to cap upside, in the broker's view, limiting the scope for a top-end FY26 FFO outcome.
Target unchanged at $1.05. Rating upgraded to Hold from Sell as the broker believes downside risks are now better contained, leading to a more balanced risk–reward profile.
ELEVRA LITHIUM LIMITED ((ELV)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/0/0
In early January, Macquarie downgraded all lithium producers under coverage, questioning the sustainability of the sharp lithium price rally and its implications for long-term value creation at these companies.
Many lithium equities have declined by double digits in recent days. Macquarie expects lithium consumption activity to soften through February.
On the recent sell-off, the broker upgrades Elevra Lithium to Outperform from Neutral. Target unchanged at $8.50.
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