Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday February 9 to Friday February 13, 2026
Total Upgrades: 31
Total Downgrades: 12
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 64.61%; Hold 27.44%; Sell 7.95%
For the week ending Friday, February 13, 2026, FNArena tracked thirty-one upgrades and twelve downgrades for ASX-listed companies from brokers monitored daily.
Percentage declines in average target prices outweigh upgrades in the tables below.
In contrast, increases in average earnings forecasts exceeded reductions, largely reflecting updated commodity pricing assumptions by Macquarie.
For 2026, this broker’s iron ore price forecast was increased by 4%, copper 11%, nickel 16%, gold 2%, silver 9% and lithium 95%, with lithium and nickel levels now above consensus estimates.
These changes had the largest impact on earnings forecasts for lithium miners Liontown Resources, IGO Ltd, and PLS Group.
The increase in target price for IGO was moderated slightly the following day after management updated its Greenbushes resources and reserves estimates, lifting contained lithium by 9%. Underground expansion potential was also highlighted by Macquarie.
Courtesy of the above mentioned commodity price update by Macquarie, Perseus Mining (gold) and iron ore exposure Fortescue also appear in the earnings upgrades table with rises of 28% and 10%, respectively.
Due to heightened activity during the February reporting season, the majority of material moves in average target prices in the tables below are largely explained by reference to the ‘beats’ and ‘misses’ in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/13/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-13-02-2026/.
After their respective reports, CommBank and James Hardie Industries appear second and third on the positive change to target price list. A more detailed exploration of broker views on CommBank will be available in an article to be published by FNArena later today.
Beating both of these stocks into first position on the list is global metals and electronics recycling company Sims.
A day prior to news of the acquisition by Sims of US-based scrap metal operator Tri Coastal Trading for -$95m, UBS explained why the inhouse view was positive on the Australian steel sector.
US-listed mills have outperformed the S&P500 by about 30% over three months, driven by 2026 steel price upgrades, the analysts noted.
Also, the broker now has greater confidence in Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS), which recovers and resells memory components from decommissioned IT equipment, as rising Double Data Rate 4 (DDR4) pricing directly boosts margins and earnings.
DDR4 prices have doubled and channel checks by the analysts suggest market deficits will persist through 2027.
UBS also highlighted improving conditions in Sims’ Metals division, with non-ferrous prices rising on supply constraints and ferrous scrap prices reaching near one-year highs, providing broader earnings tailwinds.
The Tri Coastal acquisition was considered strategically sound by Ord Minnett, funded through the sale of existing Houston land and supportive of regional market consolidation.
The broker's EPS estimates were raised for FY26 on the contribution from Tri Coastal and stronger SLS earnings, though it's thought a stronger Australian dollar will weigh on outer-year forecasts.
Despite valuation support and an increase in Sell-rated Ord Minnett’s target to $17 from $15.90, Sims’ stock is fully priced in this broker’s opinion. In contrast, UBS raised its target to $25.00 from $17.15 and upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
The only material fall in average target not explained by reference to FNArena’s Monitor is that of Catapult Sports, after Bell Potter incorporated previously excluded transaction costs for US-based video analysis platform Impect.
While the broker's Buy rating was retained, the analysts’ target was trimmed to $5.50 from $6.50.
This broker still views the stock as a higher-quality mid-cap tech exposure despite share price weakness and a likely upcoming shift to the ASX300 from the ASX200.
Ord Minnett also initiated research coverage on Catapult with a $4.33 target, the lowest of (the now) five brokers in the database.
The Buy-rated broker suggested Catapult will benefit from significant growth in expenditure on technology in the pro sports market.
Operating leverage and expansion to higher-margin product categories are also expected to lead to earnings margins above 40%.
The stock trades at an inexpensive valuation, which is attractive relative to peers, suggested the analysts.
With the topic du jour being AI disruption of software businesses, it’s unsurprising SiteMinder heads up the negative change to earnings forecast list, with Life360 in fifth place.
Last week, Citi argued AI disruption fears understate Buy-rated SiteMinder's structural advantages as distribution fragments.
It’s thought rising direct bookings and online travel agency (OTA) disintermediation enhance the channel manager’s value.
While anticipating modest downside risk to the company’s interim earnings from higher costs, the broker felt momentum for products Dynamic Revenue Plus and Channels Plus will support the outlook.
The analysts forecast first-half earnings of $13m, around -7% below the consensus expectation, and lowered their target to $6.75 from $8.40.
While decreasing its target for Life360 to $41.50 from $45.00, Bell Potter viewed Life360 as offering standout value, supported by strong defensibility within its app-based ecosystem.
It’s felt consensus FY26 earnings forecasts are achievable, with guidance likely to align at least with expectations.
Average earnings forecasts by brokers for Whitehaven Coal and Challenger also fell by -18% and -16%, respectively, last week.
Following its commodity price review, Macquarie retained a Neutral rating and $10 target for Whitehaven.
Later in the week, UBS trimmed its target for the company to $8.90 from $8.95, expecting a token dividend at the interim result to better align domestic and offshore investors alongside the ongoing buyback.
Citi and Morgan Stanley assessed Challenger’s proposed $2.60 per share cash bid for Pepper Money as broadly consistent with inherent value and potentially EPS accretive.
The investment aligns with Challenger’s non-bank lending strategy and could secure attractive fixed income exposure, noted the analysts at Morgan Stanley.
Citi highlighted risk around further similar investments which could potentially constrain future capital management flexibility.
Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 64.61%.
With only 7.95% in Sell ratings, this leaves 27.44% for Neutral/Holds.
Upgrade
AERIS RESOURCES LIMITED ((AIS)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/0/0
Morgans upgrades Aeris Resources to Buy from Accumulate with an unchanged $0.70 target following the proposed acquisition of Peel Mining’s ((PEX)) South Cobar Copper Project.
The broker argues the transaction materially strengthens Tritton’s long-term outlook, adding largely indicated, high-grade resources and supporting a credible 10-plus year mine life.
Morgans believes integrating Mallee Bull into the existing Tritton infrastructure offers capital-efficient growth, stronger mill utilisation and improved operating leverage from around FY29.
Forecasts and valuation are unchanged at this stage, pending Peel shareholder approval.
AMP LIMITED ((AMP)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS and Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie and Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0
UBS upgrades AMP to Buy from Neutral and lowers its target price to $1.75 from $1.90 following the 2025 result.
The broker notes underlying net profit after tax of $285m was in line but operating divisions missed by around -10% in 2H2025 on revenue margin pressure across Platforms and S&I, while the Bank also underperformed.
UBS has lowered FY26 EPS forecast by -4% with DPS reduced to 4c per share through 2027, reflecting weaker margins and a lower NIM outlook.
The broker argues the -27% share price reaction leaves the stock trading below NTA at around 11x 2026 earnings, which it views as attractive given a 10% pa EPS growth outlook.
Equally, the $287m of surplus CET1 is viewed positively with potential asset sales as providing optionality for future capital management.
Macquarie assesses the 2025 results from AMP serve as a reset for revenue margins in platforms and S&I, as well as dividends for 2026/27. The stock is now trading at a -25% discount to its three-year average 12-month forward PE and an -8% discount to NTA.
Rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral. The company has taken an unusual approach in guiding to dividends for two years in advance, targeting 2c per half through 2026 and 2027, lower than the broker's expectation of 3c.
Although recognising buybacks as a preferred method for returning additional capital to shareholders, AMP has not announced one as yet. Target is reduced to $1.80 from $1.90.
AMP has guided to 2026 margins that are below expectations across all divisions and Ord Minnett points out it did not announce a share buyback as many had expected, raising concerns the business may use its strong capital position for acquisitions.
A belated downgrade to the margin outlook, with the broker noting the company has been holding the line since the first half of 2025, may have provided a false sense of security to investors.
Ord Minnett reduces EPS estimates by -4.6% for 2026 and -8.2% for 2027, leading to a reduction in the target to $1.65 from $2.05.
Given the slide in the share price post the results, the broker now considers the risks are more than discounted and raises the rating to Buy from Accumulate.
ANZ GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED ((ANZ)) Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/1/2
Morgan Stanley upgrades ANZ Bank to Overweight from Equal-weight, with a higher target of $41.30 from $36.30, citing trends in 1Q26 that give the analyst greater confidence in the earnings outlook. ANZ is the preferred major bank.
Earnings for 1Q26 came in around 8% above expectations due to considerably lower-than-anticipated expenses, and there was no change to FY26 guidance.
Credit quality was robust, and the loan loss rate was around -4bps lower than estimates at circa 5bps, with the CET1 in line at around 12.5%.
EPS forecasts raised by circa 3%-5% for FY26-FY28. Morgan Stanley sees more scope for improved capital management and dividend outlook.
Industry view: In-line.
See also ANZ downgrade.
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