Technicals | 10:30 AM
Earlier today, Tony Sycamore, Market Analyst, IG updated his views and thoughts on financial markets, including the technical analysis.
All material has been re-published with permission and does not by association represent FNArena’s views (we have none, we simply report).
First Up, Nasdaq100
The Nasdaq100 has been in a corrective phase since hitting its late-October peak of 26,182, with the pattern reinforced by a clear double top formed in late January.
In an ideal scenario, this pullback would test the key support zone around the 200-day moving average at 24,034, a level that aligns closely with the November 21 low of 23,854.
That confluence would be the natural spot to watch for early signs of basing and potential reversal.
In the event the Nasdaq doesn’t retrace that far, we do need to be looking for some early signs the correction is complete.
The first of these would be a sustained break above the highs of the past week (25,100 area).
A stronger indication would come from a move above the mid-February high at 25,382.
ASX200
We are currently neutral the ASX200, with it needing a sustained break above resistance at 9115/25ish to open the way for it to make further gains towards 9400/9500.
Until then, allow for consolidation/rotation below the 9115/25 resistance zone.
Crude Oil
WTI Crude Oil is trading lower at US$66.85, down -0.66% easing from seven-month highs on reports that Iran is considering concessions ahead of Thursday’s next round of US–Iran nuclear talks in Geneva.
President Trump has warned that without a deal, there will be “very bad consequences”.
Whether these concessions will meet the US’s “zero enrichment” red line remains to be seen.
Technically, crude oil remains at the very top of the US$55–US$66.50 trading range that has defined the past six months.
A sustained break above the top of this range would open the way for further gains towards US$70.00–U$72.00.
Conversely, signs of de-escalation would likely see a retracement back towards US$61.00/bbl.
Gold
Gold is trading lower at US$5170 down -1.08% easing from three and a half week highs US$5249 in response to a modest easing in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East overnight (as detailed in the crude oil section above).
The technical picture is starting to become a little clearer four weeks on from Gold’s flash crash in late January.
The sell-off from the US$5602 high to the US$4402 low is viewed as the first wave (Wave A) of a three-wave correction.
The current rally from the US$4402 low counts as Wave B (the second leg of the correction), which has scope to continue higher towards the US$5500 level before the third leg lower (Wave C) commences back towards US$4400.
Let’s see how this plays out.
Technical limitations
If you are reading this story through a third party distribution channel and you cannot see charts included, we apologise, but technical limitations are to blame.
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