Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of eight major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, Shaw and Partners and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday February 23 to Friday February 27, 2026
Total Upgrades: 40
Total Downgrades: 24
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.95%; Hold 26.41%; Sell 7.64%
In the latter stages of the current reporting season, a period in which the bulk of corporate updates are released, FNArena recorded 40 upgrades and 24 downgrades across ASX-listed companies for the week ending Friday, February 27, 2026, based on brokers monitored daily.
Movements up and down in average target prices in the tables below are relatively equal in percentage terms, albeit with a slight negative bias.
The top six increases in target prices correspond with reporting season result ‘beats’ in FNArena’s Corporate Results Monitor, which summarises analysts’ views at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/27/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-27-02-2026/
A notable feature among this top six, which includes Reece, PWR Holdings, Tourism Holdings, and Woolworths Group, is the presence of Imdex and Monadelphous Group, both leveraged to activity across the Resources sector through the provision of diversified services and solutions.
Reinforcing this theme was the “knockout” interim result from small-cap contractor NRW Holdings, according to broker Morgans, which prompted a dedicated story on the company https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/25/strong-momentum-guides-nrw-holdings-outlook/, along with a further piece on Imdex: https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/02/26/imdex-rides-the-exploration-wave/
Imdex received three rating upgrades to Buy from separate brokers. Monadelphous was downgraded twice to Hold, due to valuation, and because the risk/reward equation is now more balanced, according to Macquarie.
Accent Group, ARB Corp and Ebos Group also received two rating upgrades apiece after missing broker expectations, while, in the aftermath of exceeding expectations, Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure received two downgrades to Hold or equivalent following share price strength.
Six of the top eight companies with percentage declines in average target prices revealed reporting season results that disappointed relative to expectations. These were ImpediMed, ARB Corp, Bapcor, HMC Capital, Guzman y Gomez, and shipbuilder Austal.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and WiseTech Global appear first and fourth on the table for reduced price targets, respectively, despite recording better-than-forecast financial results.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare’s lower average target appears to be due to the delayed impact of one broker’s move to a New Zealand target (not taken up in the average price) from the prior Australian dollar equivalent.
WiseTech’s lower average target largely reflects analysts’ reduced medium-term growth forecasts along with lower assumed peer multiples.
At first glance, the appearance of Telix Pharmaceuticals, Woodside Energy, and Growthpoint Properties in the forecast earnings downgrade list below strikes a discordant note.
The percentage decline for Telix Pharmaceuticals is exaggerated by the small forecast numbers involved and is partly due to an increased research and development spend, resulting in a lower average target of $24.80, down from $27.24 prior to FY25 results.
Earnings forecasts at Woodside Energy are lower as the broker’s earnings forecasts roll-forward to a new financial year, while Macquarie expects lower second half funds from operations for Growthpoint Properties due to the impact of lease and fund expiries.
In contrast to releasing disappointing financial market updates, Nickel Industries, Megaport, and Newmont Corp received material increases to their average FY26 earnings forecasts.
While Nickel Industries FY25 result was technically a 'miss' at the profit line, Bell Potter viewed the overall result as a positive one that continues to demonstrate the fundamental strength and profitability of the miner's vertically integrated business model.
This broker raised its target for Nickel Industries to $1.45 from $1.30.
For Megaport, Macquarie, UBS and Morgans raised their respective targets, with the latter identifying a number of one-off costs embedded in second-half guidance.
UBS upgraded its rating for Megaport to Buy from Neutral with a higher target of $15.70 from $14.65, stressing the -28% sell off in reaction to interim results was unjustified.
Newmont Corp’s earnings forecast uplift was partly due to Morgans raising its gold production forecasts. As a result, 2026 and 2027 earnings forecasts rose 9% and 8%, respectively.
This broker anticipates ongoing strong momentum in operating earnings and cash flow, supported by Newmont’s diversified portfolio of tier-1 gold assets.
Separate to reporting season results, Macquarie lowered its target price on lithium miner PMET Resources to 65c from 75c after incorporating an equity raising into forecasts. The appearance of the company in the higher average target price list is the result of a database gremlin.
Overall, the broker remains constructive on lithium, nominating Pilbara Minerals as its preferred large-cap exposure, while the smaller Elevra Lithium is seen as offering the greatest leverage to higher lithium prices.
Total Buy ratings for the eight stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 65.95%.
With only 7.64% in Sell ratings, this leaves 26.41% for Neutral/Holds.
Upgrade
AMA GROUP LIMITED ((AMA)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0
AMA Group's 1H26 saw earnings up 22% and margins up 80bps year on year, Morgans notes, and ongoing recovery of the core Collision business.
While the second quarter was slightly softer than expected (broadly flat year on year), the group continues to make good progress on its recovery with a seasonally stronger second half ahead, Morgans suggests.
The broker sees a solid growth profile as the business continues to recover, with further upside to forecasts through inorganic growth and better-than-expected outcomes against the targeted cost initiatives.
Target rises to 99c from 91c, upgrade to Buy from Accumulate.
ARB CORPORATION LIMITED ((ARB)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 5/1/0
Morgans upgrades its rating for ARB Corp to Buy from Accumulate and sets a $31.85 target price, down from $32.00, following pre-released interim results.
Sales declined -1% to $358m and PBT fell -16% to $57.1m on gross margin compression of -235bps, explains the analyst.
The broker highlights Export as the standout, with US sales up 26% and ARB product sales through ORW/4WP rising 100% on a like-for-like basis. Aftermarket sales declined by -1.7%.
Operating cash flow (OCF) of $63.9m was strong, according to Morgans, leaving net cash of $59m and supporting a flat 34c interim dividend.
After a further review of ARB Corp's interim results, UBS lowers its target to $25.50 from $27.85 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral. The analysts spy an opportunity to buy a high quality business on depressed earnings.
A summary of the broker's initial thoughts follows.
On first inspection, ARB Corp's 1H26 results were largely pre-released, UBS notes, yet management's FY26 guidance infers consensus EPS downgrades of between -2% and -4%.
While some headwinds are in the past, the analyst points to other factors impacting ARB going forward, including labour constraints, lower OEM new vehicle sales and supply, as well as weakness in the Australian aftermarket due to softer sales of key vehicle models.
See also ARB downgrade.
ATTURRA LIMITED ((ATA)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 2/0/0
Atturra’s 1H26 result was in line with December guidance, Morgans notes and FY26 guidance reaffirmed at $30m to $31m, implying a strong 2H recovery.
Revenue rose 28% y/y but margins were compressed by a contract dispute and a -$2m restructure cost, with EBITDA margins falling to 4% in 1H26 before expected to rebound to around 12% in 2H26.
Management maintains the disputed contract was a one off event. Operating cash flow is expcted recover in 2H, with net cash projected to reach around $55m by FY26 year end, according to the analyst.
The stock is upgraded to Buy from Accumulate on valuation grounds with an unchanged $0.80 target price.
ACCENT GROUP LIMITED ((AX1)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Morgans and Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/2/1
Accent Group reported 1H26 earnings down -30% year on year, in line with the revised guidance range. The decline was driven by soft comparable sales and significant operating de-leverage from lower gross margins, Morgans notes.
Margins have been impacted by promotional activity, the broker points out, but closure of loss-making Glue should provide incremental earnings in FY27. New banners such as Nude Lucy and the rollout of Sports Direct in A&NZ show attractive potential for long-term growth.
Morgans has increased FY27 earnings forecast by 11.3%, largely driven by removing Glue losses. Target rises to $1.30 from $1.10, upgrade to Buy from Hold.
On second reflection, Citi has decided to upgrade Accent Group to Buy from Neutral "on the back of a materially improved earnings outlook given Glue and mySale losses will not continue post FY26".
Whereas forecasts have reduced for FY26, they have been lifted by 16% and 11% for the two following years and this pushes up the price target by... wait for it... 62% to $1.75.
Citi's early response:
At first glance, Citi notes Accent Group's 1H26 profit was -9% below consensus and down -41% year on year driven by lower gross margin, higher D&A and net interest. An interim dividend of 3.25cps was declared, slightly below 3.5cps consensus.
While the result missed expectations, Citi thinks the set up into FY27 looks interesting given consensus earnings growth seems conservative when taking into account that the Glue and MySale losses won’t continue in FY27 and the business should benefit from the strengthening AUD.
Neutral and $1.08 target retained.
BEACON LIGHTING GROUP LIMITED ((BLX)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 3/1/0
Morgans upgrades Beacon Lighting to Buy from Accumulate and reduces the target to $3.20 from $3.80. The first half was weaker than expected amid softer sales in both retail and trade which has reduced expectations of a meaningful recovery in the second half.
Morgans lowers sales forecasts FY26 and FY27, resulting in -5% and -6% downgrades to EBITDA forecast, respectively.
The broker pointts out the end markets are cyclical and the company remains well-positioned for strong growth when consumer sentiment improves.
BRAMBLES LIMITED ((BXB)) Upgrade to Accumulate from Hold by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Morgans upgrades Brambles to Accumulate from Hold and raises the target to $27.00 from $25.70. First half earnings were better than expected amid supply chain and productivity improvements.
Management has maintained a strong track record of margin expansion despite subdued consumer demand. The broker points out this is a global, defensive business with a strong market position and the ability to adjust pricing to reflect input costs.
New business wins and structural improvements in asset efficiency are expected to drive further operating leverage and free cash flow so the stock is considered an attractive long-term investment.
COG FINANCIAL SERVICES LIMITED ((COG)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 4/0/0
Following interim results for COG Financial Services, Ord Minnett lowers its target price to $1.90 from $2.40 and upgrades its rating by two notches to Buy from Hold.
Management reported profit of $13.6m, up 11% and ahead of the broker's expectation. Earnings (EBITDA) of $22.3m also beat the analysts' prior estimate by 7%, driven by strength in salary packaging and novated leasing.
The board declared an interim dividend of 3.5c fully franked, also ahead of Ord Minnett's forecast.
The broker upgrades FY26 profit forecasts by 10% reflecting acquisitions and more than 20% organic growth in novated leasing.
Around -30% volume disruption is assumed from FY28 should the FBT exemption on electric vehicle novated leases be halved after a government review.
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