Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday March 9 to Friday March 13, 2026
Total Upgrades: 10
Total Downgrades: 4
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.62%; Hold 26.65%; Sell 7.73%
FNArena recorded ten upgrades and four downgrades from brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies for the week ending Friday, March 13, 2026.
Percentage falls in average target prices were remarkably similar to rises in the tables below while increases in average earnings forecasts outweighed the downgrades.
The average target for Lynas Rare Earths received a 16% boost after analysts updated their forecasts to incorporate a revised long-term supply agreement with Japan Australia Rare Earths (JARE), which acts on behalf of Japanese industry.
The agreement locked in sales of 5ktpa NdPr to JARE, which also committed to purchase around 50% of Lynas’ heavy rare earth (HRE) oxide output, such as dysprosium and terbium.
The contract also introduces a price floor of about US$110/kg for NdPr oxide, giving Lynas downside protection in weak markets.
Ord Minnett describes the agreement as strategically important, as Japan secures non-China supply, while Lynas strengthens its position amid rising geopolitical competition in rare earths.
While welcoming the announcement, and upgrading its rating to Hold from Sell, Bell Potter could still see risks around the valuation premium for Lynas shares, describing them as "pricing in perfection in an imperfect world".
Overweight-rated Morgan Stanley retained Lynas as its preferred rare earths exposure. UBS upgraded its NdPr price forecasts by 19%-34% through 2029 and raised its long-term assumption to US$120/kg from US$100/kg.
Rare earth prices have recovered strongly through late-2025 and early-2026, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain fragility and a tightening structural supply deficit. For a detailed explanation see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/12/material-matters-rare-earths-coal-contractors/
Lynas also ranks fifth on the earnings forecast upgrade list, just below Coronado Global Resources, which benefited from UBS’ analysis (see link above) of the Middle East conflict’s impact on US and seaborne coal prices.
On Monday morning, Lynas informed the ASX it had also signed a binding letter of intent with the US Department of War.
Sometimes in equity markets an ASX announcement or updated broker research reinforces a significant charting point for a company.
Last week’s positive research by UBS on Coronado followed Fairmont Equities identifying a buying opportunity for the stock at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/10/coronados-bounce-off-support-an-opportunity/
Listed fund manager Magellan Financial Group’s average target price rose 7% last week after the company unveiled plans to merge with Barrenjoey, the investment bank in which Magellan was an original cornerstone investor.
Morgans raised its target for Magellan to $12.43 from $9.80 and upgraded to Buy from Hold. It’s felt the transaction strategically strengthens the group by diversifying beyond its stalled investment management franchise and providing growth through Barrenjoey’s advisory, capital markets and private capital businesses.
The proposed deal would be all-scrip valuing the investment bank at about $1.61bn, with Magellan paying -$903m for the remaining shares it does not already own.
Karoon Energy, Woodside Energy and Santos appear atop the earnings upgrade table below with average FY26 forecasts by brokers raised by 34%, 23%, and 17%, respectively.
As noted at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/10/material-matters-rollercoaster-oil-top-picks/ virtually all brokers monitored daily by FNArena have been increasing their energy price forecasts in March, with positive flow-on effects for individual ASX-listed stocks.
Turning to negative scenarios in the tables below, Audinate Group received an average target price downgrade of -14%, while Pantoro Gold's average earnings forecast for FY26 was lowered by -37%.
Despite an interim results ‘beat’ by Audinate as explained in the Corporate Results Monitor at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/05/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-05-03-2026/, Morgan Stanley awaits greater clarity on new product take up and the company's monetisation pathway.
Last week, this broker lowered its target to $3.00 from $5.00 and retained an Equal-weight rating.
As part of Pantoro Gold’s interim results presentation, production guidance for the full year was downgraded by -15%.
Ord Minnett attributed multiple factors such as rain at the Scotia Mining Centre (part of Pantoro’s Norseman Gold Project in Western Australia), equipment/personnel availability, as well as a transition to a new underground mining contractor.
While seeing a current valuation discount, the Buy-rated broker preferred to wait for consistent management execution and reduced its target to $6.60 from $7.10.
Disappointed by the guidance downgrade and noting sporadic production at Norseman is becoming a concern, Morgans (Buy) also lowered its target by -30 cents to $6.53.
This broker still assessed the leverage to spot prices is significant for Pantoro, an unhedged and debt-free producer.
The inclusion of forecast changes in the FNArena database that do not relate to last week has pulled Tyro Payments and SiteMinder into the week's tables for negative target and earnings revisions.
Total Buy ratings for the seven stockbrokerages daily monitored by FNArena still sit at an historically elevated percentage of 65.62%.
With only 7.73% in Sell ratings, this leaves 26.65% for Neutral/Holds.
Upgrade
ALCOA CORPORATION ((AAI)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Alcoa benefits from rising aluminium prices, Ord Minnett reminds investors, following Middle East conflict disruptions, with regional smelter outages tightening global supply.
The broker highlights aluminium prices on the LME have risen around 12% since the conflict began, while the US Midwest premium reached a record high of US$1.10/lb.
The broker observes Alcoa holds minimal direct exposure to the troubled region, aside from a 2% stake in the Maaden operation in Saudi Arabia and alumina shipments into the Middle East.
Ord Minnett estimates a US$100/t rise in aluminium prices would increase Alcoa's earnings (EBITDA) by around US$237m, highlighting strong operating leverage.
Ord Minnett raises its recommendation to Buy from Accumulate on valuation grounds and retains its target price of $103.
EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 5/1/0
Bell Potter tweaks its price target for Eagers Automotive to $28.50 from $28.75, on a lower valuation, and upgrades the stock to Buy from Hold, noting the new target is some 15% above the current share price, with earnings forecasts post the 2025 result unchanged.
Deliveries were flat in January and down -3% in February y/y, but the analyst notes the softness is due to Toyota supply chain issues, which should be addressed over the year.
As OEMs look to increase Australian volumes in 2026, it is anticipated volumes will rebound over the coming months, and deliveries will be consistent with last year at 1.2m.
The current PER valuation below 20x is viewed as attractive.
COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Morgans .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Morgans upgrades Collins Foods to Buy from Accumulate with a higher target price of $12.70 from $12.40 post the acquisition of an eight-restaurant Bavarian portfolio at under 6x restaurant-level earnings (EBITDA).
The portfolio is in prime, high-traffic city centre locations across Germany’s three most prosperous states, covering over 50% of the population. The analyst highlights average revenue per site at circa $6m versus around $4.5m across the existing German portfolio.
Australian same-store sales growth slipped to 3.2% in a trading update for 2H26 from 3.6% growth in 1H26, while Germany advanced to 4.1% from 2.3% growth.
Management reiterated FY26 guidance for mid-to-high teens growth in group underlying net profit after tax. The acquisition is viewed as "sensible", and the deal is flagged to be EPS accretive immediately.
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