Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday March 23 to Friday March 27, 2026
Total Upgrades: 11
Total Downgrades: 14
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 65.93%; Hold 26.81%; Sell 7.26%
For the week ending Friday, March 27, 2026, FNArena recorded eleven upgrades and fourteen downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.
National Australia Bank received ratings downgrades from Morgan Stanley and Macquarie to Underweight and Neutral, respectively.
Morgan Stanley noted higher interest rates, tighter monetary policy and rising fuel costs are emerging headwinds for the Australian economy and moved its industry view on Australian banks to Cautious from In-Line.
NAB and ANZ Bank have greater exposure to diesel-intensive industries than Westpac and CommBank, highlighted the analysts. Potential for higher collective provisions in the upcoming reporting period was also flagged.
In moving its stance on the Banking sector to Underweight, Macquarie agreed elevated energy prices and higher interest rates are increasing risks to credit growth and bad debt charges.
Despite recent resilience, history suggests downside risk to bank share prices, as oil price shocks begin to flow through to earnings and valuations.
In contrast, Ord Minnett noted the outlook for banks remains positive, supported by strong lending volumes, rising interest rates and wider three-to-five year interest rate swap spreads.
This broker conceded a prolonged energy shock could weigh on global and domestic activity, increasing the risk of a sector-wide sell-off from previously elevated valuations.
NAB was highlighted as having the highest exposure to agriculture, a sector under pressure, though fully secured lending suggests limited risk of material losses.
For a further summary on broker views around the impact on the Banking sector from both oil and artificial intelligence see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/25/australian-banks-impact-of-oil-shocks-and-ai/
Percentage falls in average target prices for the week exceed increases in the tables below, while, apart from the top two positions, increases in average earnings forecasts outweigh the week's downgrades.
The top seven rises in average earnings forecasts relate to stocks in the Lithium and Oil & Gas sectors.
UBS highlighted deficits continue for lithium with tightening risk from higher demand for both electric vehicles (EV) and battery energy storage systems (BESS). US$4,000/t spodumene is forecast by the end of 2026 or early 2027.
A compelling risk-reward profile is seen for lithium, with potential for another up-cycle supported by Middle East conflict-driven strength in EV demand.
Liontown Resources, PLS Group and IGO Ltd feature in the earnings upgrade table below, with UBS selecting Buy-rated Liontown and Mineral Resources as key picks. The broker upgraded its rating for IGO to Buy from Neutral and downgraded PLS Group to Neutral from Buy (on valuation).
Santos, Woodside Energy and Beach Energy are also prominent in the forecast earnings upgrade table after a separate report by UBS earlier in the week.
The analysts again lifted their oil and LNG price forecasts, reflecting ongoing escalation in Iran and the extended disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The broker’s base case assumes a further two-to-three weeks of disruption, with flows remaining severely constrained and damage to critical energy infrastructure sustaining elevated risk premiums.
The 2026 average Brent oil price forecast was hoisted to US$86/bbl from US$72/bbl, with UBS now expecting second quarter Brent at US$100/bbl, up from US$74/bbl prior.
2026-2028 Japan Korea Marker (JKM) LNG price forecasts were also lifted to $23.6/mmbtu in 2026 and $14.5/$11/mmbtu for 2027/28, reflecting supply risks following strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility. JKM is the benchmark price for spot LNG in Asia.
The 12-month target price for Santos increased to $8.80 from $8.20 with further charting support highlighted at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/24/buying-the-santos-dip/
On the flipside, Synlait Milk received the largest downgrade to average FY26 earnings forecasts by brokers following another weak interim earnings release, as explained at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/25/fnarena-corporate-results-monitor-25-03-2026/
TPG Telecom is next on the earnings downgrade table after Macquarie made a minor downward adjustment to its FY26 forecast.
Overall, the broker remained positive on the stock with an unchanged Outperform rating and higher target of $4.40, up from $4.20.
The company is pushing aggressively on mobile growth, explained the analyst, with Vodafone prepaid price increases and strong active customer services growth versus peers supporting above-inflation mobile services growth.
This broker’s lower capex assumptions for FY28 and FY29 also reflect improved progress on cost reductions.
The average earnings forecast for DigiCo Infrastructure REIT fell by circa -10% after interim earnings had come in -9.2% below the consensus forecast.
Morgans attributed this miss to tenant reconfiguration works during the period, noting FY26 underlying earnings guidance was reaffirmed despite currency headwinds.
The REIT continues to trade at a -50% discount to net asset value, with the broker noting this does not include the full value of the 88MW SYD1 data centre expansion, which management estimates could add $1.50 per security at a targeted 15% yield on cost.
Morgans sees an opportunity for investors, retaining a Buy rating. The broker’s target was lowered to $4.15 from $4.30.
While Premier Investments heads up the fall in average price target list below, analysts observe shares are trading at a sizeable discount to valuation and see potential from management’s upcoming reset of children’s school supplies retailer Smiggle.
For analysis of broker views on Premier see https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/03/24/premier-investments-counts-on-smiggle-refresh/
Amplitude Energy’s average target in the FNArena database fell around -9% last week after the company confirmed it is now 0-for-2 in its East Coast Supply Project’s (ECSP) exploration program.
While the Isabella well flowed gas to surface, Morgans noted it failed to sustain pressure and flow, a disappointing outcome given it was the program’s largest target.
While Amplitude’s balance sheet and $100m in first half earnings provide some buffer, the next drilling result is considered critical to the investment thesis, with only two wells remaining.
A final investment decision (FID) for the ECSP has now been deferred until these subsequent wells are drilled, expected in the second half of 2026. Morgans lowered its target for Amplitude to $3.00 from $3.50.
Bell Potter applied a higher risk discount to the project, reducing its target price to $2.70 from $3.40, with existing producing assets accounting for around $2.50 per share.
Buy ratings remain elevated at 65.93%, with Sell ratings at just 7.26%, leaving 26.81% as Neutral/Hold.
Upgrade
AUSSIE BROADBAND LIMITED ((ABB)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Macquarie notes both Aussie Broadband and Superloop offer defensive earnings profiles amid rising rates and inflation, with Superloop additionally benefiting from down-trading through its discount Exetel brand.
Amid a volatile macro backdrop, both challenger NBN players continue to deliver resilient consumer share gains while diversifying into adjacent services via balance sheet deployment, the analyst explains.
The broker upgrades Aussie Broadband to Outperform from Neutral, reflecting recent share price weakness and supportive valuation analysis. The $5.30 target is unchanged.
While Aussie screens cheaper, Macquarie views Superloop’s earnings growth as higher quality, supported by fibre to the premises (FTTP) contributions and a superior, faster-growing Wholesale contract.
DALRYMPLE BAY INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED ((DBI)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/0/0
Macquarie highlights Dalrymple Bay Infrastructure's earnings stability, underpinned by take-or-pay contracts that insulate revenue from diesel shortages.
Inflation-linked pricing and exposure to higher bond yields are seen as supporting near-term earnings and cash flow growth.
Commentary notes favourable bond resets with hedged debt enhancing earnings visibility, while growth remains supported regardless of expansion timing.
In short, the valuation is attractive, in Macquarie's view, with strong yield and growth outlook, supported by inflation and bond tailwinds. Target eases to $5.39 from $5.45. The rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
DETERRA ROYALTIES LIMITED ((DRR)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 3/2/0
UBS upgrades Deterra Royalties to Neutral from Sell with a $3.95 target price.
The broker sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.
In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.
Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.
EVOLUTION MINING LIMITED ((EVN)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by UBS .B/H/S: 2/3/1
UBS upgrades Evolution Mining to Neutral from Sell with a $12.50 target price.
The broker sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz opens by early April, the analyst points to copper and copper shares rallying, with aluminum and coal to consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.
In the case of an energy price shock and extended conflict (over 2 months), UBS sees more downside to copper and further upside to aluminum and coal.
Gold is expected to recover to its "safe haven/diversifier" status despite the change in USD strength and higher bond yields.
Key gold picks remain Newmont ((NEM)) and Genesis Minerals ((GMD)).
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