Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Mark Woodruff
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday March 30 to Friday April 3, 2026
Total Upgrades: 16
Total Downgrades: 2
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.93%; Hold 26.20%; Sell 6.88%
For the shortened week ending Thursday, April 2, 2026, FNArena recorded sixteen upgrades and two downgrades from the seven brokers monitored daily across ASX-listed companies.
Gold-copper miner Greatland Resources received upgrades to Buy or equivalent from both Citi and Macquarie after a mineral resource upgrade for its Telfer, Havieron and O’Callaghans deposits within the consolidated Telfer hub.
Broker Jarden also explained recent Chinese export controls have driven tungsten prices up more than fivefold, prompting a reassessment of the value of O’Callaghans.
Greatland featured in last week’s Treasure Chest article at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/01/treasure-chest-greatland-resources/
Rises and falls in average target prices in the tables below are broadly equal while increases in average earnings forecasts materially outweigh declines.
The latter might seem contradictory, given the overall risk-off climate on the back of energy supply insecurity, but it's worth pointing out the upside stems from energy producers and mining companies, and the impact of higher diesel prices has not yet been accounted for in analysts' forecasts.
Average targets for coal exposures Coronado Global Resources, New Hope and Whitehaven Coal rose by 16%, 12% and 7%, respectively.
Macquarie raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest respective increases for thermal coal, aluminium and metallurgical coal of 29%, 26% and 15%.
Coal is relatively insulated from the Strait of Hormuz closure, aside from higher fuel costs for mining, transport and shipping, yet thermal coal is likely to pick up some of the slack among fossil fuels for power generation, particularly in countries that still rely on coal-fired capacity.
Under a ceasefire and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by early April, UBS expects copper and copper equities to rally, while aluminium and coal may consolidate or decline.
In the case of an energy price shock and an extended conflict of more than two months, UBS sees greater downside for copper and further upside for aluminium and coal.
In the near term, Macquarie is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus expectations.
Macquarie explains how the Iran conflict is having far-reaching impacts beyond LNG and oil in https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/04/02/material-matters-oil-gold-lithium-aluminium/ , while Morgan Stanley notes growing downward pressure on elevated metal prices as tensions shift the focus to demand concerns from supply risks.
In an earnings forecast upgrade list dominated by mining exposures, Coronado is second placed behind Minerals 260.
Minerals 260 has announced further drilling results from its 100%-owned 4.5Moz Bullabulling Gold Project, located 25km west of Coolgardie in Western Australia.
Bell Potter explained results confirmed continuity within the current resource and identified multiple new mineralised zones outside the existing mineral resource estimate.
This outcome helps explain to the broker the premium valuation metrics paid by Canada-based Franco-Nevada in its recent $220m royalty and equity deal with minerals 260.
Management has reaffirmed its target to deliver a pre-feasibility study and maiden ore reserve estimate by mid-2026.
Liontown Resources and PLS Group also feature prominently on the earnings upgrade table due to Macquarie’s commodities update alongside fresh research by UBS.
The latter continues to see an attractive "risk-reward" ratio for lithium and the possibility of another upcycle, as the Middle East conflict supports electric vehicle (EV) demand. A deeper explanation is available via the above Materials Matters article link.
Ongoing lithium deficits were noted, with scope for further tightening driven by higher EV and battery storage demand, with US$4,000/t spodumene expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027.
Liontown remains a key pick for UBS with a Buy rating and $2.20 target price, while PLS was downgraded to Neutral from Buy on valuation and the $4.95 target was retained.
Macquarie raised its target for Liontown by 5c to $1.80 and maintained a Neutral rating. For Outperform-rated PLS, the broker’s target was increased by 50c to $5.50.
Within research coverage by UBS, Liontown, Mineral Resources, and IGO Ltd are preferred, while Rio Tinto is viewed as a more diversified, brine-exposed entry point.
Morgan Stanley remains equally constructive on demand for lithium and prefers PLS over IGO due to stronger near-term growth potential.
BWP Trust’s average FY26 earnings forecast also rose 38% after Macquarie re-initiated research coverage with an Outperform rating, highlighting the REIT’s long weighted average lease expiries, strong tenant covenant, CPI-linked leases and low gearing.
These attributes are thought to provide downside protection to earnings in a higher interest rate environment, support valuation resilience, and offer flexibility to re-invest at attractive acquisition spreads.
Strong levels of dry powder across the sector should provide support for asset values, and the analyst believes the current share price is overly pessimistic, implying around -45bps of negative cap rate impact (expansion).
Average earnings forecasts for oil and gas exposures Karoon Energy and Santos received a boost after Macquarie raised estimates to reflect higher oil and LNG prices, aligning with the forward curve and a long-term Brent oil assumption of US$70/barrel.
The Middle East outlook is seen as highly unpredictable, with a meaningful probability of further oil price rallies, while LNG repairs and restarts in Qatar are expected to take time.
In separate research by Macquarie, government measures to support refiners Ampol and Viva Energy were highlighted, due to limited storage of refined transport fuel.
The broker retained an Outperform rating for both companies, assessing Viva has the greatest upside potential given its high sensitivity to refining margins, and raised its target to $3.50 from $2.70. The target for Ampol was raised by $4.00 to $40.00.
A measure such as the enhanced fuel security services payment, now at $0.10 per litre, reflects the increased cost environment and materially improves downside protection while reducing earnings volatility, explained the analyst. Further support includes relaxing of fuel quality standards.
On the flipside, average targets for Meteoric Resources, Zip Co and Amplitude Energy fell by -14%, -11% and -10%, respectively.
Ord Minnett highlighted an improving investment case for rare earth developer Meteoric Resources amid heightened geopolitical focus on supply security.
The project, located in Brazil’s high-grade ionic adsorption clay region, is advancing toward a final investment decision.
While recent share price weakness has improved valuation appeal, the broker warns an upcoming capital raise to fund development remains a key risk.
Ord Minnett rates Meteoric a Speculative Buy, lowering the target to $0.25 from $0.40 following multiple changes to modeling assumptions.
For Zip Co, Citi questioned whether more than 40% growth is sustainable, citing rising bad debts in its US “Pay in 8” product alongside broader macro risks. Citi analysts lowered their target to $2.60 from $4.30 but retained a Buy rating.
Slowing app download growth suggests increasing reliance on existing customers, while higher oil prices pose a risk to consumer spending and credit quality, the broker noted.
While bad debts may rise in the near term, it’s believed FY26 earnings guidance should be achieved with higher revenue yields and lower funding costs, helping offset elevated losses and supporting margins.
Macquarie observes Amplitude Energy’s Otway drilling program has been disappointing, with recent wells reducing the expected upside from the campaign.
While the final investment decision for the East Coast Supply Project has been deferred, the company continues to target first gas in 2028, with remaining wells offering lower-risk potential.
The broker views the Annie 2C resource as a fallback option, though its higher CO2 content may require additional capital investment.
Lowering its target by -7.1% to $3.25, Macquarie believes the share price reaction is overdone and retains an Outperform rating, citing ongoing earnings and cash flow growth potential.
Buy ratings remain elevated at 66.93%, with Sell ratings at just 6.88%, leaving 26.20% as Neutral/Hold.
Upgrade
ATLANTIC LITHIUM LIMITED. ((A11)) Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 0/1/0
Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.
In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.
Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.
The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.
Macquarie upgrades Atlantic Lithium to Neutral from Underperform and raises the target to $0.32 from $0.24, given higher longer-term lithium prices have improved the project valuation and the return outlook.
This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.
CHAMPION IRON LIMITED ((CIA)) Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/1/0
Macquarie has raised its 2026 commodity price forecasts, with the largest increases for thermal coal up 29%, aluminium up 26%, metallurgical coal up 15%, gold up 7%, iron ore up 6% and copper up 3%.
In the near term, the broker is overweight thermal coal, aluminium, metallurgical coal and nickel relative to consensus, while remaining even-weight on copper, iron ore, zinc, lithium, gold, silver and manganese.
Alumina is the only commodity where Macquarie is underweight.
The broker’s Australian dollar forecast is around 6% stronger than consensus. While higher prices support earnings, higher FX and fuel costs offset some of the benefit, the analyst explains.
The target for Champion Iron rises to $6.60 from $6.25 and the rating is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral.
This is a summary of research produced by Macquarie on March 27.
CORONADO GLOBAL RESOURCES INC ((CRN)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by UBS .B/H/S: 2/2/0
UBS sees commodities being impacted by the Middle East conflict. Under a ceasefire, and if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by early April, the analyst expects copper and copper equities to rally, while aluminium and coal may consolidate or decline. Iron ore remains a more China-centric play.
In the case of an energy price shock and an extended conflict of more than two months, UBS sees greater downside for copper and further upside for aluminium and coal.
Gold is expected to regain its safe haven and diversification appeal, despite a stronger US dollar and higher bond yields.
UBS raises the target price for Coronado Global Resources to 42c from 40c and upgrades the stock to Buy from Neutral.
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