Weekly Reports | 11:00 AM
A summary of the highlights from Broker Call Extra updates throughout the week past.
Broker Rating Changes (Post Thursday Last Week)
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EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED ((APE)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden lowers its target for Eagers Automotive to $25.25 from $26.10 given a delay to CanadaOne deal completion.
The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral as the company is seen as well positioned to outperform in a challenging consumer environment.
Despite macro headwinds, including higher interest rates and weaker sentiment, the broker sees strong demand for fuel-efficient vehicles benefiting Eagers, particularly given exposure to Toyota and EV/PHEV brands.
First half 2026 volumes are tracking better than expected by the analysts, supported by improving supply and rising EV demand, though uncertainty remains around sustainability.
CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED ((CMM)) Upgrade to Overweight from Neutral by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden lifts its long-term gold and silver price forecasts to US$3000/oz real from FY31 for gold and US$40/oz real for silver, although also increases near-term cost assumptions to reflect fuel supply disruption.
Production forecasts are not yet constrained, although the broker considers this a "real and increasing risk" should fuel shortages escalate.
Low-grade open pit operations, which includes those of Capricorn Metals, are most exposed.
Rating is upgraded to Overweight from Neutral and Capricorn Metals remains the broker's preference in the gold sector. Target is raised to $13.50 from $11.00.
CAPSTONE COPPER CORP. ((CSC)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Capstone Copper is upgraded to Buy from Hold as Moelis notes stock specific events and growing caution around the copper price have provided an environment for a sell-off over recent weeks.
The broker flags the company's unique investment position as one of only few pathways for domestic small-cap fund managers to gain access to high-quality diversified global copper exposure.
The main residual risk is any ongoing disruptions at operations that may signal the last six months of problems are not just temporary. Target edges up to $14.60 from $14.50.
GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED ((GMD)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Genesis Minerals is upgraded to Buy from Hold as Moelis observes at times there have been strong share price returns while maintaining a neutral investment position.
In the March quarter the company formally committed to a new plant at the Leonora mine site which will increase overall throughput and provide additional capacity to capitalise on the significant inventory now held.
The proposed acquisition of Magnetic Resources ((MAU)) also adds further mineralised inventory near the Laverton operations.
The broker believes investors should have more conviction to bake in a potential 500,000 ounces of gold production in future.
The stock has been sold from its highs recently and the target of $8.40 compares with $8.05 previously.
KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED ((KCN)) Upgrade to Buy from Hold by Moelis.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Kingsgate Consolidated is upgraded to Buy from Hold as Moelis asserts the recent pull back in the share price provides adequate upside for a more constructive investment rating.
The elements that make up this new investment view include the resolution of prior legal grievances with the Thai government and scope for improved grades at Chatree.
A step change in silver prices also had an impact on the business, as byproduct credits from Chatree increase in value and the Nueva Esperanza project in Chile takes on economic potential, although the broker considers it too early to include the development case in its valuation. Target is $6.95, increased from $6.85.
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KMD BRANDS LIMITED ((KMD)) Downgrade to Neutral from Overweight by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden downgrades KMD Brands to Neutral with 0.14 price target following 1H26 results and a highly dilutive 65.3m capital raise.
Equity raise priced at a -74% discount issues circa 1,088m new shares, reducing pro-forma net debt to 32m (1.3x EBITDA) though leverage remains above the 0.5x or less target.
Commentary highlights Kathmandu (+12.3% y/y) and Rip Curl wholesale (+9.8% y/y) growth supported sales momentum, partially offset by -120bps group gross margin contraction to 56.8% amid inventory clearance.
Operating earnings forecasts are lowered by circa -30% for FY27/FY28 driven by softer Rip Curl sales and reduced long-run Kathmandu gross margin assumptions of 62.0%.
Moderating sales momentum and a history of missing targets maintain a significant credibility gap, the report states, with future valuation tied to transformation strategy execution and managing freight and input cost inflation.
PEXA GROUP LIMITED ((PXA)) Downgrade to Neutral from Buy by Jarden.B/H/S: 0/0/0
Jarden downgrades Pexa Group to Neutral with a 12.40 target following ARNECC's decision to shelve interoperability and IPART's pricing methodology release.
Interoperability removal reinforces monopoly position but increases risk of aggressive price regulation. IPART proposes historical cost rolled-forward Regulatory Asset Base (RAB) excluding goodwill, suggesting possible $158m-$169m base versus $1.3bn book value.
Potential price cuts of 25%-47% under 6% WACC scenarios create a significant valuation overhang, the report highlights.
Commentary warns near-term risk remains elevated ahead of the June 2026 Draft Report.
| Order | Company | New Rating | Old Rating | Broker | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrade | |||||
| 1 | CAPRICORN METALS LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 2 | CAPSTONE COPPER CORP. | Buy | Neutral | Moelis | |
| 3 | EAGERS AUTOMOTIVE LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Jarden | |
| 4 | GENESIS MINERALS LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Moelis | |
| 5 | KINGSGATE CONSOLIDATED LIMITED | Buy | Neutral | Moelis | |
| Downgrade | |||||
| 6 | KMD BRANDS LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
| 7 | PEXA GROUP LIMITED | Neutral | Buy | Jarden | |
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