Weekly Ratings, Targets, Forecast Changes – 05-06-26

Array
(
    [0] => Array
        (
            [0] => ((EDV))
            [1] => ((COL))
            [2] => ((GNC))
            [3] => ((SGM))
            [4] => ((TWE))
            [5] => ((ASK))
            [6] => ((ABG))
            [7] => ((BRE))
            [8] => ((CKF))
            [9] => ((DXS))
            [10] => ((HVN))
            [11] => ((ING))
            [12] => ((PGC))
            [13] => ((SCG))
            [14] => ((SLC))
        )

    [1] => Array
        (
            [0] => EDV
            [1] => COL
            [2] => GNC
            [3] => SGM
            [4] => TWE
            [5] => ASK
            [6] => ABG
            [7] => BRE
            [8] => CKF
            [9] => DXS
            [10] => HVN
            [11] => ING
            [12] => PGC
            [13] => SCG
            [14] => SLC
        )

)

This story features ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED, and other companies.
For more info SHARE ANALYSIS: EDV
The company is included in ASX100, ASX200, ASX300 and ALL-ORDS

Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.

By Mark Woodruff

Guide:

The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.

For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.

Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.

Summary

Period: Monday June 1 to Friday June 5, 2026
Total Upgrades: 4
Total Downgrades: 9
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.37%; Hold 27.05%; Sell 6.59%

For the week ending Friday, June 5, 2026, FNArena recorded four upgrades and nine downgrades in ratings for individual ASX-listed stocks from seven brokers monitored daily.

Falls in average target prices (valuations) broadly match increases in the tables below, while declining average earnings forecasts materially outweigh the positive adjustments.

The average broker target for network-as-a-service and infrastructure-as-a-service provider Megaport increased by 18% last week.

The Megaport share price has rallied to close last Friday at $18.48 from around $10.00 in mid-May on increasing market confidence around infrastructure-as-a-service contract wins stemming from the company’s acquisition of Latitude.sh in November last year, as summarised at https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/05/19/latitude-contracts-transform-megaports-outlook/

Since this May 19 article, the company has simultaneously announced even larger AI-infrastructure contract wins of $459m along with a $827m capital raise to fund circa -$370m of expenditure for high-performance Nvidia GPUs, network, and storage infrastructure.

Another -$350m will be spent establishing an on-demand GPU Pool, providing enterprise customers access to AI infrastructure through both contracted and consumption-based commercial models.

UBS’ conclusion is Megaport’s acquisition of Latitude has materially strengthened the company’s earnings outlook, with contracts secured since November carrying annual recurring revenue 6.4 times larger than the acquired business.

The broker highlighted accelerating AI and cloud demand, cross-selling opportunities with the network business, and balance sheet capacity to support further contract wins and growth investment.

Morgan Stanley suggested to investors “don’t fight the momentum”, given an around 20% internal rate of return on contracts, with the stock offering AI exposure with shorter lead times and lower capex requirements than data centres and neoclouds.

Equally, Citi felt Megaport’s latest contract wins provide a meaningful earnings tailwind, noting management’s outlook may prove conservative, particularly if demand remains strong and growth in the core Network business continues to accelerate.

Diversified engineering, construction and maintenance services company SRG Global also announced a series of contracts last week to the value of $1.85bn across water, defence, energy, industrial marine and data centre sectors, resulting in a 12% lift in average target by brokers.

Management upgraded FY26 earnings guidance to the top end of the $164m-168m range and provided first-time FY27 guidance for between $190m-200m.

Bell Potter increased its target to $4.25 from $3.15 on more favourable medium- and long-term earnings assumptions and a lower assumed weighted average cost of capital.

This broker retained its Buy rating, arguing the company’s 27% premium to industrial services peers looks justified.

The average target for Sims, one of the world’s largest metal recycling and circular economy companies, increased by nearly 10% last week after Morgan Stanley raised its target to $24.00 from $15.50.

The business is involved in collecting, processing and selling ferrous and non-ferrous scrap metal, as well as providing electronics recycling and data destruction services.

The broker upgraded its rating to Equal-weight from Underweight, noting the structural improvement in IT asset recovery and re-sale business Sims Lifecycle Services (SLS) amid stronger-for-longer Double Data Rate 4 (DDR4) pricing and higher scrap pricing.

Yet, the broker remains cautious about capitalising the current DDR4-driven resale margins. DDR4 is the fourth-generation DRAM memory standard used in computers, servers and data centres.

While part of the earnings growth at SLS appears durable, the current DDR4-related resale margins are not viewed as representative of sustainable medium-term earnings power.

Sims also appears second on the week’s table for positive change to average earnings with a rise of circa 11%, behind the 12% rise for transport-fuels exposure Ampol.

The ACCC has approved Ampol’s acquisition of EG Australia’s 512 service stations, subject to 41 sites being on-sold to independent operator Metro Petroleum in order to alleviate concerns about reduced competition.

Ampol will take up the option to swap the planned scrip portion for cash, which means the final price paid to EG Group will be slightly higher at $1.115bn.

Ord Minnett notes management commentary on the company’s financial performance and balance sheet augurs well for the first half results due in August, although limited information provided means it was not possible for this analyst to translate into hard numbers.

Ord Minnett has now assumed special dividends will resume in 2027, likely commencing with the 2026 results in February, implying an attractive dividend yield.

On the flipside, Lendlease Group heads up the week’s list for negative change to forecast earnings as Morgan Stanley lowered its target to $3.25 from $3.89 following news the Milano Santa Giulia North development site in Italy had been divested for a loss of -$175m.

It’s felt management is unlikely to achieve its target of reducing gearing to around 15% by the end of June 2026, unless the group receives a significant amount of cash from uncontracted asset sales over the coming weeks.

This broker also sees a risk that gearing at year’s end exceeds the 32.9% reported at the first half result, highlighting ongoing balance sheet pressure despite recent asset sale activity.

Ord Minnett calculated a reduced valuation for the group’s capital release unit (CRU) established to divest offshore assets, prompting a reduction in target to $2.85 from $3.05.

GrainCorp and Peter Warren Automotive appear in third and fourth positions, respectively, with average falls of -27% and -21%, respectively.

Bell Potter lowered its forecasts for GrainCorp following the June crop report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES), which projects a -27% year-on-year decline in the east coast winter crop. A -19% fall in southeastern canola production is also forecast.

This broker expects lower crop receivals and reduced canola crush volumes, although stronger crush margins should provide a partial offset.

In contrast, Ord Minnett viewed the ABARES forecast as a significant positive, having anticipated a much weaker outlook due to below-average rainfall, elevated El Nino risks and ongoing fertiliser cost and availability pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict.

Peter Warren Automotive is a predominantly east coast dealership operator focused on NSW and Queensland, while Eagers Automotive is the dominant automotive retailer across Australia and New Zealand, offering broader geographic, brand and earnings diversification.

As discussed here https://fnarena.com/index.php/2026/06/04/eagers-automotive-geared-for-better-second-half/ Eagers continues to outperform despite weakening sector conditions. Peter Warren Automotive, by contrast, reported a sharp decline in new vehicle margins and issued FY26 guidance well below market expectations.

Peter Warren also suffered the second largest fall (-10%) in consensus target, behind the -22% fall for Tourism Holdings Rentals. Management at the latter revised FY26 net profit guidance to NZ$40-NZ$43m from NZ$43-$47m, reflecting the conflict in the Middle East.

The business has been affected by both global disruption to international travel and weaker consumer confidence.

Tourism Holdings is the world’s largest recreational vehicle rental operator, renting, selling and manufacturing motorhomes, campervans and caravans across A&NZ, North America and Europe.

In the coming days an article will be published on the FNArena website explaining broker views on Australia’s largest natural gas infrastructure business APA Group, which received a 4% increase in average target from brokers last week.

As a teaser, the group offers not only potential share price upside from rising energy demand driven by AI and data centre growth, but also what Morgan Stanley considers the safest dividend yield across its ASX research coverage.

Total Buy ratings remain historically elevated at 66.37%, with Sell ratings at just 6.59%, leaving 27.05% on Neutral/Hold.

Upgrade

ENDEAVOUR GROUP LIMITED ((EDV)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 2/3/1

Citi lowers its target for Endeavour Group by -20c to $3.25 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral, despite elevated near-term uncertainty. The group’s investor day also provided limited quantitative targets beyond cost reduction initiatives.

Putting aside these negatives, the broker sees potential for market share gains in the Retail division under new management’s price leadership strategy and believes the company’s scale positions it well in a competitive market.

Citi also identifies Coles Group’s ((COL)) upcoming FY26 result in August as a potential catalyst, with the supermarket group currently reviewing the role of large-format liquor stores within its broader retail network.

GRAINCORP LIMITED ((GNC)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Ord Minnett upgrades GrainCorp to Buy from Accumulate, with an unchanged target price of $7.25.

The analyst points to rainfall across northern NSW and Queensland over the last two weeks, which should support the FY27 winter crop after being highlighted as a potential concern at the 1H26 result on May 14.

While the crop is still likely to be smaller than FY26, the broker no longer expects a poor outcome.

SIMS LIMITED ((SGM)) Upgrade to Equal-weight from Underweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 2/2/0

Morgan Stanley observes Sims is executing strongly as the shares have rallied 75% over the past year. The broker upgrades to Equal-weight from Underweight, noting the structural improvement in SLS amid stronger-for-longer DDR4 pricing and higher scrap pricing.

Yet the broker is cautious about capitalising the current DDR4-driven resale margins, questioning whether these are sustainable in terms of medium-term earnings.

Commentary explains SLS is primarily an IT asset recovery and re-sale business that is benefiting from structural tailwinds including AI-driven server replacement and increasing hyper-scale activity. The target is raised to $24.00 from $15.50.

TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED ((TWE)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 1/5/0

Following Treasury Wine Estates’s investor day, Citi raises its target to $5.50 from $4.25 and upgrades to Buy from Neutral.

The broker is now more constructive on the medium-term outlook, with management outlining plans to simplify the portfolio, improve transparency and sharpen its consumer focus.

The company aims to reduce its brand portfolio to fewer than 30 labels from 76 while targeting a long-term earnings (EBITS) margin above 25%, compared with Citi’s prior FY26 forecast of 19%.

A summary of the broker’s initial research yesterday follows.

Citi’s initial reaction to the release of Treasury Wine Estates’ investor day presentation is positive, noting the absence of any downgrade to FY26 or FY27 earnings expectations. Longer-term margin targets also imply upside to market forecasts, note the analysts.

Management will pursue a strategic and operational review of the Americas division. Early findings highlight strong luxury brand positioning but challenges from elevated inventory and excess supply chain capacity.

Citi expects the touted review to be well received by investors.

Management is targeting group earnings (EBITS) margins above 25% over the longer term, while inventory destocking is expected to conclude in China by FY27 and in the US by FY28.

FY26 earnings guidance is expected to be in the range of $480m-$490m while FY27 earnings are expected to be at least equivalent to FY26. Citi notes consensus sits at $490m for FY27.

Downgrade

ABACUS STORAGE KING ((ASK)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 0/3/0

Bell Potter lowers its target for Abacus Storage King by -20c to $1.50 and downgrades to Hold from Buy.

These changes result from the broker’s review of the implications of the REIT’s proposed internalisation and emerging softness across the self-storage sector.

The proposed internalisation involves Abacus acquiring management rights from Abacus Group ((ABG)) and bringing management in-house.

Management has guided to around 6% funds from operations (FFO) accretion in FY26 from internalisation. The broker is more conservative, forecasting 4.8% earnings accretion in FY27 as higher interest costs partially offset management fee savings.

The analysts also highlight increased competition and discounting within the self-storage market, with rental growth remaining subdued and transaction activity muted amid higher funding costs.

BRAZILIAN RARE EARTHS LIMITED ((BRE)) Downgrade to Hold from Speculative Buy by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 0/1/0

Ord Minnett downgrades Brazilian Rare Earths to Hold from Speculative Buy as the share price has advanced too far relative to the expected spin-out of the bauxite project in July and the Monte Alto scoping study in July-August.

The analyst estimates the spin-out of the Amargosa bauxite project is worth $1.20 per share, while management remains upbeat about the upcoming scoping study.

Following the rise in the share price from $5.50 in May, the broker would prefer to wait until the data is announced.

The target price is lifted to $6.95 from $6.25.

COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) Downgrade to Equal-weight from Overweight by Morgan Stanley .B/H/S: 3/4/0

Morgan Stanley includes mid single-digit increases in FY27 for food and wages inflation, and revisits quick service operators to see which is best positioned in inflationary environment. Volume growth remains an offset, benefiting those that are still growing traffic.

Operators are already finding pricing challenging, which means they will need to find alternative ways to preserve margins. Historically these operators have been able to offset inflation through menu pricing yet pricing power has eroded.

The broker downgrades Collins Foods to Equal-weight from Overweight, given it is fully exposed to restaurant-level economics, and reduces the target to $9.30 from $11.20. In-Line industry view unchanged.

DEXUS ((DXS)) Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 1/3/1

Ord Minnett downgrades Dexus to Hold from Accumulate, with an unchanged target price of $7.20, following the Supreme Court ruling against the REIT over the sale process of shares in Australia Pacific Airports Corp (APAC), the owner of Melbourne and Launceston airports.

The ruling articulated that Dexus would need to sell its 27% stake to the other APAC shareholders, subject to a market-value assessment and whether Dexus appeals the decision, the broker states.

The loss of the APAC contribution had already been included in the broker’s earnings forecasts.

No additional changes were made to forecasts, but as APAC generated around 44%-55% of segment earnings for infrastructure management, the analyst queries whether management might exit the sector.

HARVEY NORMAN HOLDINGS LIMITED ((HVN)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/4/1

Macquarie assesses the outlook for the Australian consumer has weakened materially. This has been driven by economic/policy measures domestically as well as geopolitical events.

Modelling suggests expenditure growth of 1.5% FY27, well below the long-run average.

The broker favours relative defensive stocks and expects grocery to be the net beneficiary as consumers pull back from other categories.

Macquarie downgrades Harvey Norman to Neutral from Outperform, assessing furniture and apparel will be the major drag on growth. Target is reduced to $4.50 from $6.60.

INGHAMS GROUP LIMITED ((ING)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 1/2/1

Macquarie assesses the outlook for the Australian consumer has weakened materially. This has been driven by economic/policy measures domestically as well as geopolitical events.

Modelling suggests expenditure growth of 1.5% FY27, well below the long-run average.

The broker favours relative defensive stocks and expects grocery to be the net beneficiary as consumers pull back from other categories.

Macquarie downgrades Inghams Group to Underperform from Neutral as cyclical headwinds are compounding a competitive environment. Target is steady at $1.80.

PARAGON CARE LIMITED ((PGC)) Downgrade to Hold from Buy by Bell Potter .B/H/S: 1/1/0

Paragon Care now expects FY26 revenue of $3.7bn and EBITDA in the range of $95-$100m, including the 3-month contribution from Haju Medical.

Bell Potter, in assessing the slight downgrade from prior guidance of $97-$107m, is not surprised given the increased costs of logistics and supplier price increases as a result of the conflict in the Middle East.

Administrators of Infinity Group have advised of a preliminary settlement estimate to Paragon Care in the range of $11.7-$15.8m.

The company had previously provided for the entire $49m. The estimated settlement follows submissions of offers for various pharmacies within the group, most of which continue to trade.

The broker notes the second half was difficult for the company in spite of two accretive acquisitions amid inflationary pressures in the core Australian business.

Rating is downgraded to Hold from Buy and the target is lowered to $0.17 from $0.30.

SCENTRE GROUP ((SCG)) Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/1/1

Macquarie downgrades Scentre Group to Underperform from Neutral due to valuation following a 12.7% rise in the stock from a low of $3.32. The analyst highlights the stock is now trading at a 9.3% premium to pro forma NTA of $3.45.

Funds from operations forecasts are lifted by around 2% for 2026 to reflect the redemption of $1.8bn in 2030 subordinated notes and a lower average debt margin.

Management has reconfirmed guidance of “at least 23.73 cents per security”, and the broker remains comfortable with a forecast around 1% above guidance.

The target price is raised by 6.8% to $3.45.

SUPERLOOP LIMITED ((SLC)) Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform by Macquarie .B/H/S: 3/2/0

Macquarie notes Superloop upgraded FY26 earnings (EBITDA) guidance to $118m-$122m from $112m-$120m. The midpoint of the upgrade aligns with consensus, but is lower than the analyst’s forecast of $123m.

Notably, targets for FY29 were described as supercharged, with revenue over $1bn and around $200m in underlying earnings (EBITDA), implying a CAGR in EPS of 35%. The analyst forecasts Superloop can achieve these targets through organic growth.

Management lifted prices only on the sub-100Mbps plans and raised them by more than competitors. The analyst highlights the Smart Communities valuation is “longer-dated”.

EPS forecasts are raised by 6.6% for FY27, with a lift in the target price by 5.7% to $3.70. The stock is downgraded to Neutral from Outperform.

Total Recommendations	Recommendation Changes
Broker Recommendation Breakup

Click to view our Glossary of Financial Terms