Weekly Reports | 10:00 AM
Weekly update on stockbroker recommendation, target price, and earnings forecast changes.
By Rudi Filapek-Vandyck, Editor
Guide:
The FNArena database tabulates the views of seven major Australian and international stockbrokers: Citi, Bell Potter, Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Morgans, Ord Minnett, and UBS.
For the purpose of broker rating correlation, Outperform and Overweight ratings are grouped as Buy, Neutral is grouped with Hold and Underperform and Underweight are grouped as Sell to provide a Buy/Hold/Sell (B/H/S) ratio.
Ratings, consensus target price and forecast earnings tables are published at the bottom of this report.
Summary
Period: Monday June 22 to Friday June 26, 2026
Total Upgrades: 6
Total Downgrades: 11
Net Ratings Breakdown: Buy 66.06%; Hold 27.31%; Sell 6.64%
An Australian share market that is barely keeping its head above water midway through 2026 is battling downgrades to earnings forecasts, targets and ratings from analysts at local stockbrokerages.
With only two sessions left in June, the ASX200 has a 0.57% gain left to defend year-to-date, excluding dividends.
The average domestic investor is staring with full-blown envy at offshore markets, where the Nikkei225 boasts a gain of more than 37% and even the weak UK economy still has a market that is outperforming the ASX200, having advanced 5.7% thus far.
For the week ending Friday, June 26, 2026, FNArena registered six upgrades for individual ASX-listed stocks, of which only half went to a Buy, and eleven downgrades, mostly to a Neutral/Hold rating.
Trends in adjustments are visibly skewed to the downside, as companies including Baby Bunting, Jumbo Interactive and Worley continue to issue profit warnings amid tough operational conditions.
The one question on investors' and analysts' minds is whether subdued outlooks are already reflected in today's prices, as many stocks have been de-rated over recent months.
This is one key reason why the Australian share market is lagging its offshore equivalents this year.
The second-most-asked question, no doubt, is whether general conditions might improve once tax-loss selling has run its course.
We shall all find out in three days' time. Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East remains, erm, let's call it 'fluid'.
Consensus forecasts are still positioned for a strong outcome for the current financial year and for FY27, but that's mostly related to the mining and energy sectors, while forecasts remain in a persistent downtrend.
Best not to get blinded by the 12% EPS growth forecast for both FY26 and FY27; details matter.
For the past week, EchoIQ and Ingenia Communities Group stand out in the rankings for positive changes to price targets, with the week's table generally featuring small moves.
AI-healthcare software developer EchoIQ signed a binding heads of agreement with Pro Medicus, creating a proposed strategic investment and US commercial partnership.
Pro Medicus is to invest an initial $10m via secured convertible notes, with an option for another $10m if EchoIQ receives FDA clearance for EchoSolv HF. It could also become a US reseller of EchoIQ’s EchoSolv product suite.
EchoIQ is reportedly planning a $100m capital raising.
Real estate developer Ingenia Communities Group, which operates in seniors living and holiday communities, released a positive trading update, providing brokers with an opportunity to repeat their Buy ratings after what had been an elongated downtrend in its shares since September last year.
The RBA's repeated rate hikes in 2026 are just one headwind that is now --potentially-- in the rear-view mirror.
Aforementioned profit warnings pretty much guarantee the larger changes sit on the negative side, led by Judo Capital, followed by IDP Education, Jumbo Interactive, Baby Bunting, and Beach Energy.
Analysts are still recalibrating their models for IDP Education. Jumbo Interactive received a major downgrade from Morgan Stanley during the week. Others have been lowering their energy price forecasts.
As shown in the week's top ten positive updates to earnings forecasts, virtually nothing is happening at that end. The numbers are more respectable on the flip side, without looking spectacular by anyone's assessment.
Still, there is a trend, and it's not a positive one.
Apart from EchoIQ and the issuers of profit warnings, last week's earnings estimates also went south for energy companies, as analysts anticipated the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and prepared for --on balance-- lower energy prices.
The current share market polarisation continues to be reflected in 66% Buy-equivalent ratings from the seven stockbrokers monitored daily, with 27.31% on Neutral/Hold and the remaining 6.64% on Sell-equivalent ratings.
History suggests such large skew towards Buy ratings is normally reserved for prolonged bear markets, but anno 2026 it signals a market in which a smaller group of companies supports the index and a larger majority remains bereft from money flows, momentum and investor interest.
It's tough out there, and tricky at the same time.
Upgrade
A2 MILK COMPANY LIMITED ((A2M)) Upgrade to Neutral from Sell by Citi .B/H/S: 4/2/0
Citi raises its target for a2 Milk Co to $6.70 from $5.85 and upgrades to Neutral from Sell after analysing May 2026 New Zealand sea and airport freight data.
While the broker's FY27 earnings (EBITDA) forecast sits -17% below consensus, it's felt investors may be willing to look through near-term challenges if progress in rebuilding market share is demonstrated.
Management still faces work to restore distribution channels and reinvest in its brand, Citi suggests, but evidence of market share gains could improve sentiment towards the stock.
Separately, Citi notes today's ASX release stating Chinese regulators approved the transfer of two infant formula registrations to the a2 brand.
At first glance, the broker considers this announcement particularly positive given the regulatory uncertainty surrounding such approvals.
The registrations allow a2 to expand its China-label product range, reduce reliance on birth-rate-driven demand and lessen supply-chain dependence on Synlait Milk ((SM1)), Citi explains.
Citi believes the approvals support longer-term market share growth and could eventually contribute more than NZ$100m in additional annual sales by FY30.
The broker also expects a special dividend of NZ$300m to be announced shortly.
BABY BUNTING GROUP LIMITED ((BBN)) Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate by Ord Minnett .B/H/S: 5/0/0
Ord Minnett has a positive take on Baby Bunting's FY26 trading update, highlighting pro-forma net profit after tax to rise between 32%-40%, although the update is lower than management's prior guidance, by -11%.
The analyst notes sales growth of 6% for FY26 is now flagged which is slightly below forecast with 2H26 comparable store sales coming in around -3% below management's target of 6%-8% growth.
Gross margins are expected to be above 41% for FY26 with 2H26 coming at around 41.5%.
The broker lowers earnings forecasts by -5% to -9% for FY26-FY28 and upgrades the stock to Buy from Accumulate.
Target price slips to $2.30 from $2.80.
COLLINS FOODS LIMITED ((CKF)) Upgrade to Buy from Neutral by Citi .B/H/S: 4/3/0
Citi upgrades Collins Foods to Buy from Neutral, due to the share price decline of some -14% since March 23, with a new target price of $10.30 from $10.45.
The analyst points out the QSR operator will be cycling a "modest" FY26 trading update across all its geographic regions.
Other indications from KFC suggest the Australian business has remained resilient for most of FY26.
Ongoing inflationary pressures remain a potential risk and challenge to the upgrade, the broker explains.
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