KMD BRANDS LIMITED (KMD)
Share Price Analysis and Chart

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26/09/2024

3

Neutral

$0.45

15.38%

FY24 underlying earnings (EBITDA) for KMD Brands were in line with Macquarie's expectations and at mid-point of guidance with opex savings partly offsetting a decline in sales.

Pre-reported group sales declined by -11.2% year-on-year reflecting weakness in consumer sentiment, a challenging sales environment, and Rip Curl and Oboz cycling record sales, explains the analyst.

Because of a tougher macro environment and ongoing wholesale channel constraints, Macquarie expects ongoing headwinds across all brands.

The target eases to 45c from 47c. Neutral.

FORECAST
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.83 cents and EPS of 1.38 cents.
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.39 cents and EPS of 4.78 cents.

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21/11/2024

2

Overweight

-

-

KMD Brands' 1Q25 group sales declined by -5.8% year-on-year, an improvement from the -8% decline recorded in 2H24, with direct-to-consumer sales recovering, particularly for the Kathmandu brand in Australia, notes Jarden.

Wholesale channels remained weak, with Rip Curl sales down -15% and Oboz sales down -8% year-on-year, though 2H25 forward orders suggest improving trends.

Group gross margins improved year-on-year, notes the broker, supported by clearance sales activity in August 2023, though inflationary pressures continue to pose challenges.

Jarden trims earnings forecasts for Rip Curl and Oboz, maintaining an Overweight rating for KMD and lowering the target price to NZ$0.63 from NZ$0.67, citing potential for positive momentum by 3Q25.

FORECAST
Jarden forecasts a full year FY25 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.20 cents.
Jarden forecasts a full year FY26 dividend of 2.76 cents and EPS of 3.77 cents.