Australian Broker Call

Bell Potter rates A2M as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter has upgraded the target price for a2 Milk Co as sustained weakness in NZD is expected to lift profitability.

The broker notes NZD (the company's reporting currency) has depreciated -4% vs USD, AUD and CNY since the FY25 result, with the decline against AUD and CNY being its largest revenue driver.

Despite hedging and a lagged natural hedge in dairy cost of goods sold, the broker sees persistent FX weakness lifting FY26-28 profitability.

Additionally, the broker notes early FY26 shipment trends showed China direct shipment values rose 8% y/y and Australian volumes rose 46% y/y.

Net profit forecast for FY26 lifted by 1% and by 4% for FY27.

Hold. Target rises to $9.60 from $7.85.

Target price is $9.60 Current Price is $9.19 Difference: $0.41
If A2M meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.75, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ABB as Buy (1) -

Aussie Broadband's 1Q26 update showed a slowdown in net-adds in September, but this was expected by Citi due to heightened NBN competition leading up to and following speed acceleration.

The broker is focusing more on the strong rebound in October, with net subscriber additions up to October 11 pointing to a monthly run-rate of 9.9k. This is higher than Citi's forecast of 7.5k monthly net adds in 1H26 and around 7k in 2H.

The broker forecasts 1H26 broadband connections to touch 833.2k, requiring around 8.4k monthly net-adds from mid-October.

The company reaffirmed FY26 guidance for underlying EBITDA and capex.

Buy. Target unchanged at $6.15.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: $0.55
If ABB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ABB as Upgrade to Buy from Accumulate (1) -

Ord Minnett highlights Aussie Broadband's reaffirmed FY26 EBITDA forecast and capex guidance in a positive AGM update.

Subscriber growth re-accelerated in October after a temporary slowdown ahead of the NBN Accelerate program. Enterprise and government momentum remains strong, with major contract wins supporting double-digit profit growth through FY27.

The broker expects the wholesale migration of More Telecom and Tangerine Telecom in 2H26 to further boost FY27 earnings visibility.

Residential subscriber additions of over 3.2k early October imply over 25k December quarter run-rate. This poses an upside risk to the broker's FY26 subscriber forecast.

Rating upgraded to Buy from Accumulate. Target rises to $6.29 from $5.72.

Target price is $6.29 Current Price is $5.60 Difference: $0.69
If ABB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.16, suggesting upside of 4.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BBN as Buy (1) -

Following deeper analysis of Baby Bunting's AGM trading update, Citi's earnings forecasts are largely unchanged, though some revisions were made to account for the 2H26 skew.

The broker now forecasts 1H26 net profit of $4.9m vs guidance of $4.5-5.5m, and 2H of $12.7m vs guidance of $12.5-14.5m.

Buy. Target rises to $3.52 from $3.04 on higher premium in valuation due to increased confidence in turnaround story.

Previously, the broker wrote:

Baby Bunting announced a positive trading update with sales coming in slightly above Citi's expectations. Adjusting for stores closed for refurbishment, like-for-like sales growth rose to 5.6% from 4% in the first six weeks of FY26.

Proforma FY26 net profit after tax guidance was indicated by the company at $17-$20m versus consensus at $18m, with more of a 2H skew than the analyst expected.

The CEO highlighted there had been no erosion of larger format store sales from two recently opened small format stores. 1Q26 gross margins were 40.6%, which is better than anticipated, up 30bps on the previous period and in excess of consensus at 40.5%.

FY26 gross margin guidance was retained at 41%.

Target price is $3.52 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.52
If BBN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BBN as Neutral (3) -

Baby Bunting announced same-store sales growth for 1H26 year-to-date of 2.2% on the prior period, which includes some impact from temporary store closures.

Management reiterated FY26 same-store sales growth guidance of 4%-6%, with Macquarie's estimate at 5.2%.

Gross margins continued to improve, up 30bps to 40.6%, with the analyst expecting gross margin to come in at 41% for FY26, in line with guidance.

Net profit after tax is guided to 2H26 skew due to the company's seasonality, while the store network advanced to 77 from 75, with two new small store pilot formats opened. Management aims to refurbish 11-12 stores in FY26.

Macquarie lifts its EPS forecasts by 4% for FY26 and 5% for FY27, with an accompanying upgrade in target price to $3.15 from $2.50. This also reflects signs the new store format strategy is successful, with further possible upside.

Neutral rating remains.

Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.15
If BBN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BBN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Baby Bunting is tracking in line (or slightly better) with FY26 profit guidance of $17-20m reaffirmed at its AGM.

The broker highlights comparable sales up 2.2% year-to-date, or 5.6% excluding refurbishments, which supports management’s 2H26 growth expectations.

The gross margin of 40.6% rose 30bps year-on-year, while store refurbishments and new openings remain on schedule, with 11-12 refurbishments and five new stores planned for FY26, explains the analyst.

Morgan Stanley views Baby Bunting as a category leader with strong long-term growth potential and maintains an Overweight rating.

Target $3.60. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: $0.6
If BBN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BBN as Trim (4) -

Baby Bunting’s 1Q26 trading update was broadly in line with Morgans' expectations, with year-to-date comparable sales up 2.2% and FY26 profit guidance of $17-20m reaffirmed.

Earnings will be weighted to the second half, the broker notes, driven by stronger sales following store refurbishments and improving margins.

Refurbished stores are delivering an average 30% sales uplift, above the 15-25% target range, though Morgans cautions it remains early days.

Target lifts to $2.70 from $2.50. Trim rating unchanged.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: minus $0.3 (current price is over target).
If BBN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BBN as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

In a trading update, Baby Bunting reaffirmed FY26 net profit guidance of $17-20m but expects earnings to be heavily 2H-weighted. Ord Minnett notes this is mainly due to significant store network restructuring and related costs.

Comparable store sales rose 2.2% FY26 year-to-date (to 12 Oct ) in line with the 1.5-3.0% growth expected in 1H26. The company will invest $7m in new/annualising stores and $4m in refurbishments and relocations, with earnings split 27%/73% between 1H and 2H.

Given execution risk, the broker lowered FY26-27 earnings forecasts by -7.4% and -4.8%, respectively.

Rating downgraded to Hold from Buy. Target trimmed to $2.95 from $3.00.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $3.00 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If BBN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 14.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Buy (1) -

After a complete analysis of Beacon Lighting's trading update, Citi lowered FY26-28 EPS forecasts by -12% to -10% after factoring in a weaker sales outlook and the resulting operating leverage.

Target price trimmed to $3.95 from $4.38. Buy maintained.

Previously, Citi wrote:

The trading update at Beacon Lighting's AGM was patchy, with sales easing in late August and into September.

The analyst points to the slowdown in sales being driven by a perception of a shorter interest rate cutting cycle than previously anticipated.

Cooler weather in September which didn’t support demand for ceiling fans, and consumers deferring purchases until the Black Friday period also weighed.

Citi is forecasting 1H26 like-for-like sales growth of 2.95% versus consensus at 3.32%, which is now considered possibly too high given the AGM update.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: $0.74
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BLX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes Beacon Lighting reported moderating sales in late 1Q26 from the positive momentum seen in 4Q25 and early 1Q26. This implies flat y/y sales growth, in the broker's view.

Trade sales remain the key growth driver, supported by new stores at Auburn and Altona and upsizing at Geelong and McGraths Hill stores. The company will also acquire the St Kilda franchised store, further expanding its owned network.

The broker notes 2Q is expected to be more critical for earnings, requiring a slight sales pick-up to meet forecasts.

Target trimmed to $3.70 from $3.85. Buy maintained.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.21 Difference: $0.49
If BLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.82, suggesting upside of 21.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BOQ as Neutral (3) -

Bank of Queensland's FY25 result was broadly in line, noted Citi in an initial assessment of the result today, with cash earnings of $383m about 1% above consensus and at the top of management's prior guidance.

Gross loans and advances (GLAs) weighed on lending volumes (mortgage attrition) and deposit competition persisted, observe the analysts. Proactive loan repricing delivered a 1bp net interest margin (NIM) improvement.

Costs fell -4% year-on-year, with further benefits expected from the -$250m productivity program and the AI partnership, highlights Citi.

The broker also notes asset quality remained benign, capital was strong at 10.94%, and total FY25 dividend of 38c was 9% above consensus.

Overall, Citi views execution as solid but awaits details on potential capital partnerships.

Neutral. Target $6.60.

Target price is $6.60 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: minus $0.52 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BOQ as Sell (5) -

Bank of Queensland reported an in-line FY25 earnings report, according to UBS at first glance, including total income up 9%, slightly above the analyst's and consensus forecast. Net interest income rose 9% to $790m, above UBS and meeting consensus forecast.

The 2H25 dividend per share of 20c exceeded the broker's estimate of 19.3c and was well above consensus at 16.9c.

It is believed the bank is transitioning to a more focused and "streamlined" operation in areas where it can compete more effectively.

Management set guidance of CET1 at 10.25%-10.75%.

Sell rated. Target $6.50.

Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $7.12 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If BOQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $6.38, suggesting downside of -11.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in August.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CAT as Hold (3) -

Catapult International announced the acquisition of Impect, provided a trading update and published preliminary 1H26 results.

Bell Potter notes the preliminary 1H26 results were broadly in line with its forecasts, with the annual contract value of US$115.3-115.6m coming close to its US$115.2m estimate. The company reiterated its FY26 outlook.

Following the update and after factoring in the Impect acquisition, the broker upgraded FY26 revenue forecast by 3% and FY27 by 7%.

Hold. Target rises to $7.50 from $6.00, up 25% on roll-forward and a higher valuation multiple to reflect Impect's value.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $7.47 Difference: $0.03
If CAT meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.47, suggesting upside of 1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CHC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has outlined potential catalysts for Australian real estate stocks expected to emerge during the December 2025 and March 2026 quarters.

The broker highlights potential upside for Charter Hall from further inflows into its new unlisted wholesale pooled fund, Convenience Retail Fund (CCRF).

Additional investors are conducting due diligence on the fund, highlights the broker, with the potential for further capital once established.

Inclusion of CCRF in the MSCI index would be a modest positive surprise, as it could attract benchmark-aware unlisted investors and strengthen Charter Hall’s platform diversification, notes Morgan Stanley.

Overweight. Target $26.35. Industry View: In-Line. 

Target price is $26.35 Current Price is $22.50 Difference: $3.85
If CHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.85, suggesting downside of -3.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSC as Buy (1) -

Capstone Copper announced a a 25% sell-down of Santo Domingo mine to major shareholder Orion Resource Partners for US$300m, comprising of US$225m cash and US$75m deferred payment.

Citi views the partner choice as a positive, given Orion owns around 12% of Capstone Copper. The transaction implies a NAV of US$900m vs US$1.2bn consensus, with Orion funding its share of capex and US$60m in contingent payments.

The exploration budget was lifted to US$40m from US$25m, with help from an additional US$10m Orion equity subscription, supporting new drilling at Santo Domingo and Sierra Norte.

Buy. Target unchanged at $11 (derived from C$9.80 target).

Target price is $11.00 Current Price is $14.47 Difference: minus $3.47 (current price is over target).
If CSC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $14.21, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CSC as Outperform (1) -

Capstone Copper announced the sale of a 25% minority interest in its 100% owned Santo Domingo to Orion Resources Partners for US$360m, which Macquarie views as "fairly" priced.

The deal was struck in three parts: US$225m for 25% ownership upon a positive final investment decision (FID), US$75m within six months of the FID, and US$60m on contingent milestones.

The analyst highlights a minority partner can assist with the US$2.3bn in total capital costs to develop the project.

Capstone's estimated capex for its 75% share is around US$1.74bn, funded via sale funds, a US$0.26bn gold stream, US$0.31bn in existing cash, and the remainder funded via project finance for US$0.81bn.

Third quarter production is due on October 31 in Australia. Macquarie lowers its EPS forecasts by -1% for 2025 and -5% for 2026 on the sale. Target price is lifted 8% to $14.80 from $13.60.

Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $14.80 Current Price is $14.47 Difference: $0.33
If CSC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.21, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CSC as Accumulate (2) -

Capstone Copper has agreed to sell a -25% stake in its Santo Domingo and Sierra Norte projects to Orion Resource Partners for up to US$360m, implying to Morgans a project value of around US$1.4bn.

The sell-down structure mirrors Capstone’s Mantoverde model, points out the broker, cutting Capstone's equity funding requirement to around US$420m, which can be met through internal cash flows.

Importantly, Capstone retains a buyback right to re-acquire Orion’s 25% interest post-production at a fixed, pre-agreed price, explains the analyst.

Morgans makes no earnings changes, with Santo Domingo remaining consolidated, and lifts its target price to $16.30 from $16.00. Accumulate rating retained.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $14.47 Difference: $1.83
If CSC meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.21, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSC as Hold (3) -

Capstone Copper sold a 25% stake in the Santo Domingo mine and Sierra Norte projects to Orion Resource Partners for up to US$360m. Ord Minnett consider this outcome positive given prior valuation concerns stemming from development risks.

The deal includes US$225m at the final investment decision stage, US$75m within six months, and up to US$60m in contingent payments. Orion will also subscribe to US$10m of Capstone's shares.

The broker notes the transaction reduces Capstone’s funding requirement to US$400m for its remaining 75% stake. Santo Domingo’s NPV is estimated at US$1.2-1.4bn, with the higher end now reflected in the model.

This pushes up the target price to $14.75 from $13.00. Rating remains at Hold.

Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $14.47 Difference: $0.28
If CSC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.21, suggesting upside of 2.0% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CSL as Hold (3) -

Bell Potter notes a key concern from CSL's FY25 result was its modest FY26 revenue growth guidance of 4-5%. 

After a detailed analysis of the key product launch Andembry, the broker concludes it is unlikely to materially accelerate topline growth.

Additionally, the broker notes Behring’s core Ig franchise faces ongoing headwinds from Part D reform and UK tender losses, leading to growth uncertainty into 1H26.

On the costs side, the broker sees a significant portion of the US$525m cost-saving initiative to be reinvested in pipeline opportunities, which implies lower-than-expected opex savings.

Overall, the broker trimmed FY27 net profit forecast by -3% and FY28 by -6%. The broker's 1H26 net profit forecast is -2% below consensus, and hence it doesn't expect a beat vs consensus at result time.

Hold. Target cut to $230 from $240 on earnings revisions and on a lower PE multiple of 22x vs 21x.

Target price is $230.00 Current Price is $211.00 Difference: $19
If CSL meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $275.39, suggesting upside of 27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Management at CSL plans to demerge Seqirus into a separately listed ASX entity before FY26-end, with UBS seeing only modest initial benefits from limited valuation capture and reduced earnings risk.

The broker believes undervaluation exists within CSL ex-Seqirus, supported by easing of both US tariff and most-favoured-nation (MFN) risks. Improving Behring profit growth from stronger immunoglobulin (IG) sales and margin recovery is also noted.

Seqirus is expected to contribute around 12% of CSL’s potential profit in FY27, notes UBS. A 5% annual profit growth is estimated by the broker through FY30, supported by stable vaccination rates and high free cash flow conversion.

The analysts estimate Seqirus to be worth between $8.1bn and $9.1bn based on a multiples approach, and between $8.5bn and $9.0bn on a DCF valuation.

UBS retains a Buy rating and a $300 target price for CSL.

Target price is $300.00 Current Price is $211.00 Difference: $89
If CSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $275.39, suggesting upside of 27.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates CU6 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Bell Potter notes Clarity Pharmaceuticals' Co-PSMA trial showed that 64Cu-SAR-bisPSMA PET/CT detected significantly more prostate cancer lesions than the current standard 68Ga-PSMA-11 PET/CT in men with low but rising PSA levels after surgery.

This earlier and more sensitive detection may improve access to curative treatments such as surgery or radiotherapy, the broker notes. Full patient outcome data is still to come and will likely be outlined at an upcoming medical conference.

The announced results met Bell Potter's expectations and a Speculative Buy rating is retained. Target price lifted to $6.40 from $5.70.

No change to the broker's earnings estimates.

Target price is $6.40 Current Price is $4.88 Difference: $1.52
If CU6 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 31% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates DMP as Sell (5) -

Global brand owner and franchisor, Domino’s Pizza Inc’s recent 3Q25 beat was driven by the US, offering little reason to turn more positive on Sell-rated (target $13.25) Domino's Pizza Enterprises, suggests Citi.

Future international growth for Domino’s Pizza Inc will come mainly from China and India, markets where Domino's Pizza Enterprises has no exposure, explain the analysts.

Domino's Pizza Enterprises' store closures are nearly complete, notes the broker, but sales challenges persist in France and Japan, which account for around one-third of its network.

The broker highlights ongoing risks from Domino's Pizza Enterprises' shift to everyday value pricing, franchisee profitability below targets, a debt-heavy balance sheet, and leadership uncertainty. 

Target price is $13.25 Current Price is $14.69 Difference: minus $1.44 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.52, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Buy (1) -

UBS reflects on potential implications for Domino's Pizza Enterprises after US-based Domino's Pizza reported better-than-expected same-store sales growth of 5.2% for Q3.

The broker observes US management referred to uncertainty on FY26 store network plans for ASX-listed Domino's Pizza Enterprises; not so much regarding more closures but rather the plan for openings, noting further roll-outs depend on new store paybacks and franchisee unit economics.

UBS retains a Buy rating and $19 target.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $14.69 Difference: $4.31
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.52, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates DUR as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights the strategic shift in Duratec's earnings profile and sector exposure. The company has increased works exposed to energy decommissioning across aging oil and gas assets, alongside building/facades from defence.

In FY25, defence revenue declined to 32%, down -15 percentage points (pp) from FY23, while energy, building and facades rose 5pp to 34%.

Current estimates for energy decommissioning and remediation are $60bn of works and $28bn across the next decade. Aging towers, stricter safety rules, and sustainability upgrades are generating demand for facade remediation.

A Buy, High risk rating is retained. Target price is lifted to $2.20 from $1.90, with the analyst ascribing a higher valuation to the company.

Target price is $2.20 Current Price is $2.08 Difference: $0.12
If DUR meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.02, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates DXS as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has outlined potential catalysts for Australian real estate stocks expected to emerge during the December 2025 and March 2026 quarters.

For Dexus, resolution of the Melbourne Airport dispute with co-owners is expected in 2Q26 and should be in line with the broker's expectations.

If unresolved, the broker believes management may need to divest its -$3bn Melbourne Airport stake, around 10% of external funds under management, with limited earnings impact but potential reputational risk.

Underweight. Target price $7.75. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.75 Current Price is $7.32 Difference: $0.43
If DXS meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.96, suggesting upside of 8.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

Evolution Mining reported 1Q26 production of 174koz of gold and 18ktoz of copper, both down on the June quarter due to bi-annual shutdowns at the Cowal and Ernest Henry mills as well as rain impacts at Cowal, Citi notes.

Cowal generated one-third of group operating mine cash flows and delivered from underground around 2mt. The analyst points to Mungari mill commissioning in the quarter, with the final expansion budget around -15% under budget.

All-in-sustaining costs were $1,720/oz with consensus at $1,780/oz, aided by a stronger copper price.

Management re-affirmed guidance for FY26 and gearing ended the quarter at 11%, down from 15% at the June quarter.

Neutral rated with a $10.50 target.

Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $11.42 Difference: minus $0.92 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Across UBS’s ASX gold coverage, equities imply gold prices of between US$2,900/oz and US$3,675/oz, compared with the current spot price of around US$4,100/oz. The broker’s new long-term assumption is US$3,250/oz, an increase of US$450/oz.

UBS remains Overweight on the ASX gold mining sector. The broker believes a compelling case remains for increasing gold allocations amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk.

On average, the broker’s target prices for gold stocks under coverage rise by 20-35%.

The target for Evolution Mining rises to $9.70 from $8.10. Sell rating retained.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $11.42 Difference: minus $1.72 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.19, suggesting downside of -17.1% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FBU as Neutral (3) -

UBS warns New Zealand building materials conditions may worsen before improving. Valuing cyclicals is difficult at this point in the cycle, notes the broker, with near-term earnings risk offset by a better medium-term outlook.

Volumes for 1Q26 have weakened further, driven by a soft Auckland housing market, a lull in major infrastructure work, and margin pressure across Distribution, Concrete and Insulation, caution the analysts. A material recovery is not anticipated until 2027.

Fletcher Building’s 1Q26 volumes weakened further, notes UBS, with Winstone wallboard and aggregates down -3.8% and -6.3% year-on-year, respectively.

Earnings margins are under pressure across Distribution, Concrete and Insulation, while consent cancellations above 10% have removed over -$2bn of annual work, explain the analysts.

Neutral. Target increased to NZ$3.55 from NZ$3.40 on a valuation roll-forward.

Current Price is $2.80. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.13, suggesting upside of 13.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GMD as Buy (1) -

Across UBS’s ASX gold coverage, equities imply gold prices of between US$2,900/oz and US$3,675/oz, compared with the current spot price of around US$4,100/oz. The broker’s new long-term assumption is US$3,250/oz, an increase of US$450/oz.

UBS remains Overweight on the ASX gold mining sector. The broker believes a compelling case remains for increasing gold allocations amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk.

On average, the broker’s target prices for gold stocks under coverage rise by 20-35%.

The target for Genesis Minerals rises to $8.00 from $6.50. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $6.40 Difference: $1.6
If GMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.37, suggesting downside of -2.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GMG as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has outlined potential catalysts for Australian real estate stocks expected to emerge during the December 2025 and March 2026 quarters.

For Goodman Group, establishment of a European data centre development partnership or fund is expected in 3Q26 and would represent a modest upside surprise, according to the analysts.

The broker believes a successful launch would unlock earnings benefits through land sales, development profits on completion, and ongoing management fees.

Overweight. Target $40.47. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $40.47 Current Price is $32.88 Difference: $7.59
If GMG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $37.82, suggesting upside of 15.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GNC as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Bell Potter downgrades its rating on GrainCorp to Hold from Buy due to the recent share price appreciation, which has approached the broker's target price of $9.10, which remains unchanged.

The broker had upgraded the rating in July on expectations of a positive September 2025 ABARE crop report and improved oilseed margins.

The current 2025-26 indicators for east coast crop size, canola crush margins, and grain trading margins are considered in line with Bell Potter's range of outcomes for FY26 earnings estimates.

No change to the analyst's earnings forecasts.

Target price is $9.10 Current Price is $8.98 Difference: $0.12
If GNC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.00, suggesting upside of 4.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates GPT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has outlined potential catalysts for Australian real estate stocks expected to emerge during the December 2025 and March 2026 quarters.

The broker expects GPT Group to create new joint ventures and partnerships with third-party capital, seeded by balance sheet assets.

Success by the CEO in attracting new capital partners is seen as likely, supported by recent senior hires to strengthen the capital partnerships team.

Overweight. Target price $6.00. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $5.33 Difference: $0.67
If GPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.79, suggesting upside of 9.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HCW as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has outlined potential catalysts for Australian real estate stocks expected to emerge during the December 2025 and March 2026 quarters.

For HealthCo Healthcare & Wellness REIT, finalisation of the Healthscope hospital sale process is expected in 2Q26, with outcomes likely in line with the broker's expectations.

Healthscope accounts for more than half of the REIT’s rental income, note the analysts. Any rent revision is expected to be lower, with additional lease incentives likely.

Underweight rating. Target price 89c. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $0.89 Current Price is $0.70 Difference: $0.19
If HCW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.86, suggesting upside of 23.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates HMC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has outlined potential catalysts for Australian real estate stocks expected to emerge during the December 2025 and March 2026 quarters.

For HMC Capital, settlement of Tranche 2 of the Energy Transition Platform, linked to the Neoen acquisition, is expected in 2Q26 and should be in line with expectations.

If a capital partner is not secured, the analysts believe HMC Capital would need to fund the final payment of around -$200m through debt or potential asset sales.

Equal-weight. Target $4.46. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $4.46 Current Price is $3.37 Difference: $1.09
If HMC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.08, suggesting upside of 40.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates JIN as Neutral (3) -

On first take, Citi notes Jumbo Interactive has announced the acquisition of UK-based Dream Car Giveaways (DCG) for $109.9m. It infers an EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.5x for 12-month earnings ending April 20, 2025.

The broker reckons the acquisition is priced at a discount and DCG is a leading digital B2C prize draw platform offering cars, cash, property, and lifestyle prizes.

Funding will be sourced via a mix of existing cash ($17.9m), equity raising ($10.2m), and debt of $81.6m.

Citi notes Jumbo anticipates the acquisition will generate double-digit EPS accretion in the first year post-purchase and could provide a rise in earnings (EBITDA) of 20-25% on an annualised basis.

Neutral rated. Target $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $9.80 Difference: $1.7
If JIN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.00, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie - Cessation of coverage

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley has outlined potential catalysts for Australian real estate stocks expected to emerge during the December 2025 and March 2026 quarters.

For Lendlease Group, divestment of the Retirement Living and TRX businesses could enable a $500m buyback, suggest the analysts. Completion is expected in 2Q26.

The proposed buyback would be significant for Lendlease, in the broker's view, representing around 14% of its $3.6bn market capitalisation. It's noted management has already taken steps to reduce gearing through its recent hybrid issuance in Singapore.

Equal-weight. Target $7.12. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.12 Current Price is $5.27 Difference: $1.85
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.46, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Ahead of the 3Q25 result, Citi has adjusted its forecasts for Newmont Corp after also factoring in its latest gold price forecasts.

The broker remains short-term bullish on gold, supported by both cyclical and tactical tailwinds. 3Q estimates are broadly in line with, or slightly below, consensus as gold prices continue to rally.

The broker's 3Q EPS estimate for Newmont is US$1.34/sh vs the consensus of US$1.42/share. Production is expected to be broadly flat q/q, with higher cost, but internal cost and productivity initiatives seen supporting profitability improvement ahead..

Buy. Target rises to $160 from $115.

Target price is $160.00 Current Price is $138.99 Difference: $21.01
If NEM meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates NST as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Across UBS’s ASX gold coverage, equities imply gold prices of between US$2,900/oz and US$3,675/oz, compared with the current spot price of around US$4,100/oz. The broker’s new long-term assumption is US$3,250/oz, an increase of US$450/oz.

UBS remains Overweight on the ASX gold mining sector. The broker believes a compelling case remains for increasing gold allocations amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk.

On average, the broker’s target prices for gold stocks under coverage rise by 20-35%.

The target for Northern Star Resources rises to $28.20 from $21.10, and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

Target price is $28.20 Current Price is $25.04 Difference: $3.16
If NST meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.97, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Post Paladin Energy's 1Q26 update, Bell Potter believes the uranium company is starting to show reliable production at the Langer Heinrich plant.

Production of U308 was 1.07mlbs, a rise of 7.7% on the prior quarter, with mill throughput marginally below the previous quarter at 1.15mt and grade of 477ppm with 86% recoveries.

Sales were -25% to 0.534mlbs, with closing inventory at 1.8mlbs and an average realised price of US$67.4/lb, up from US$55.6/lb in 4Q25.

With another good quarter under its belt, Paladin is well positioned to achieve the upper end of its production guidance as mine rates increase over 2H26.

Bell Potter adjusts EPS for the update and $300m equity issue, with FY26 EPS forecast lowered by -22% and FY27 down by -8%.

Buy rating retained. Target moves to $11.35 from $10.30, previously.

Target price is $11.35 Current Price is $9.62 Difference: $1.73
If PDN meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PDN as Reinstate with Outperform (1) -

Paladin Energy announced production for the September quarter of 1.1mlb which was considered a "solid" result by Macquarie, with the rate anticipated to accelerate into 2H26. The analyst forecasts 4.5mlb for FY26, marginally above guidance at 4-4.4mlb.

The analyst lifts its long term U308 price target to US$95/lb which will allow investors an adequate return on marginal greenfields projects.

Deep Yellow's ((DYL)) Tumas project and Bannerman Energy's ((BMN)) Etango project are viewed as marginal at lower grade pre-final investment decision.

They may need a U308 floor price of US$85/lb in market-related contracts, above the current US$70-US$75/lb level, the broker reckons.

Adjusting for the $300m equity issue and margin revisions with a higher longer-term U308 price assumption, Macquarie lowers EPS forecast by -22% for FY25 and lifts FY26-FY29 by 5%, 6%, and 9%, respectively.

Macquarie reinstates coverage of the company with an Outperform rating and $11.25 target price. Paladin shares are currently implying a U308 price of US$72.5/lb.

Target price is $11.25 Current Price is $9.62 Difference: $1.63
If PDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDN as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Paladin’s September quarter report as strong, with production and costs outperforming expectations as the Langer Heinrich Mine ramp-up remains on track.

The broker notes uranium production of 1.07mlbs was 2.5% above consensus, while production costs of -US$41.6/lb were -14% lower than its forecast and below the FY26 guidance range of -US$44-48/lb.

Uranium sales of 0.53mlbs were lower due to shipping delays, explains the broker, with one delivery completed post-quarter.

Capex rose to -US$8m from increased stripping activity as mining ramps up, while cash stood at US$269m with low gearing, highlight the analysts.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and $9.50 target. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $9.62 Difference: minus $0.12 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PDN as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Paladin Energy delivered a solid 1Q26 operational result with record U3O8 production of 1.07mlb, meeting guidance and the consensus, Ord Minnett notes.

Unit cost was low at US$41.6/lb as mining volumes rose 63% q/q. However, sales volume of 533klb was a big miss to the consensus of 908klb.

Target price is trimmed to $7.50 from $7.60 due to lower FY26-27 uranium price assumptions. Rating downgraded to Sell from Hold.

The broker believes the valuation looks stretched at 14x EV/EBITDA and less than 5% FCF yield, below acceptable return levels for uranium risk.

Target price is $7.50 Current Price is $9.62 Difference: minus $2.12 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates PDN as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Paladin Energy announced a positive 1Q26 trading update with U308 production of 1.07mlb at a cost of US$41.6/lb which was better than Shaw and Partners' expectations.

It signalled a production record and maintained the uranium company is set to achieve the midpoint of its FY26 production guidance of 4-4.4mlbs. The analyst is forecasting FY26 production of 4.5mlbs, above guidance.

Recovery in Langer Heinrich equates to the plant running in the high 80% band, well above its historical average of 60%-70% due to plant enhancements. Feed continues to come from ore stockpiles with feed grade at 477ppm, the same as the prior quarter.

The analyst notes sales were the weak link at 533.8klb but tend to be lumpy with a delay in shipment into the December quarter.

Buy, High risk rating and $10.40 target price unchanged.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $9.62 Difference: $0.78
If PDN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PDN as Buy (1) -

Paladin Energy’s September quarter production of 1.07mlbs was broadly in line with UBS’s 1.09mlbs estimate at a cost of -US$42/lb versus -US$44/lb expected.

Sales of 0.54mlbs missed the broker's forecasts due to a -0.4mlb shipment delay, already paid for but recognised in the December quarter.

Mining activity rose 63% quarter-on-quarter to 5.3mt, recoveries eased slightly to 86%, and costs remain below guidance of -US$44-48/lb, highlight the analysts.

The balance sheet was strengthened by the September capital raise, the broker notes, with around US$270m cash held.

UBS makes minimal earnings forecast changes and retains a Buy rating and $9.00 target price.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.62 Difference: minus $0.62 (current price is over target).
If PDN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $9.71, suggesting downside of -1.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PRU as Buy (1) -

Across UBS’s ASX gold coverage, equities imply gold prices of between US$2,900/oz and US$3,675/oz, compared with the current spot price of around US$4,100/oz. The broker’s new long-term assumption is US$3,250/oz, an increase of US$450/oz.

UBS remains Overweight on the ASX gold mining sector. The broker believes a compelling case remains for increasing gold allocations amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk.

On average, the broker’s target prices for gold stocks under coverage rise by 20-35%.

The target for Perseus Mining rises to $6.15 from $5.10. Buy rating retained.

Target price is $6.15 Current Price is $4.87 Difference: $1.28
If PRU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.06, suggesting upside of 2.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie notes Rio Tinto reported September quarter results which basically met expectations. Pilbara iron ore production/shipments met both the analyst's and consensus forecasts, with 4Q2025 production at 88mt needed to achieve 2025 guidance.

Bauxite achieved record production, up 12% to 16.4mt, a beat on higher utilisation rates. Bauxite guidance for the full year was raised to 59.61mt with the analyst's estimate at 59.7mt.

Copper was in line with expectations. Escondida was better, up 6% to 110.7kt, a beat, and Oyu Tolgoi was a slight beat. Simandou's first shipment is flagged for November.

Neutral. Target unchanged at $115. After incorporating the 3Q2025 update, there are only slight changes to the analyst's EPS estimates.

The broker's preference remains for Rio Tinto vs BHP Group ((BHP)).

Target price is $115.00 Current Price is $127.43 Difference: minus $12.43 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.25, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Rio Tinto’s September quarter was broadly in line, with iron ore steady and Simandou progress providing clarity on production ramp-up expectations.

The broker notes Simandou’s first shipment is expected in November, and a complex commissioning process of several months will begin, followed by a 30-month ramp-up to full capacity in 1Q29. A 4.5mt output for 2026 is forecast, below the consensus of 6.3mt.

Copper output was mixed, note the analysts, with Escondida 10% ahead of consensus, Oyu Tolgoi up 13% versus the broker's forecast, and Kennecott softer due to maintenance. Iron ore production of 84.1mt was in line, though a strong 4Q is needed to meet guidance.

Morgan Stanley prefers BHP Group ((BHP)) and maintains an Equal-weight rating on Rio Tinto. Target $129.50. Industry View: Attractive.

Target price is $129.50 Current Price is $127.43 Difference: $2.07
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.25, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Downgrade to Trim from Hold (4) -

Morgans raises its target for Rio Tinto to $117 from $110 and downgrades to Trim from Hold as the valuation starts to stretch, in the analyst's view.

Rio's 3Q25 result showed solid operational delivery, assesses the broker, though Pilbara shipments remain below the low end of guidance, leaving little room for error in Q4.

Morgans highlights copper as the standout, with Oyu Tolgoi’s underground ramp-up driving momentum.

Bauxite (aluminium ore) guidance was lifted to 59-61mt on sustained Weipa strength, explains the broker.

Morgans' FY25-26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts rise 8-15% following higher copper realisations and iron ore mark-to-market upgrades.

Target price is $117.00 Current Price is $127.43 Difference: minus $10.43 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $123.25, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Accumulate (2) -

Ord Minnett notes Rio Tinto’s 3Q25 production was in line with expectations, with Pilbara iron ore shipments also meeting consensus.

The company reaffirmed FY25 iron ore shipment guidance, but the broker reckons a stronger December quarter will be needed to hit the low end of its 323–328Mt range. 

Copper output matched forecasts, supported by strong Oyu Tolgoi mine and Escondida mine performance, while bauxite output was a standout, beating expectations and seeing a lift in guidance.

Iron ore pellet output in Canada and lithium production in Argentina underperformed due to pit repairs and maintenance shutdowns, respectively.

The broker lifted EPS forecasts by 2% across FY25-27, increasing the target price to $129 from $127. Accumulate retained.

Target price is $129.00 Current Price is $127.43 Difference: $1.57
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.25, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto’s September quarter result aligned broadly with expectations held by UBS, with iron ore softer but copper and bauxite strong and 2025 guidance unchanged.

Pilbara shipments of 84mt were flat year-on-year and in line with consensus and the broker, while 4Q production guidance implies to the analysts a record 88mt.

Aluminium and bauxite output exceeded the broker's expectations, with guidance lifted to 59-61mt. Copper rose 10% year-on-year to 204kt, tracking the top end of 780-850kt guidance, with Oyu Tolgoi on course for a greater than 50% lift in 2025, highlights UBS.

The broker retains a Neutral rating and target price of $130.

Target price is $130.00 Current Price is $127.43 Difference: $2.57
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $123.25, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RRL as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

Across UBS’s ASX gold coverage, equities imply gold prices of between US$2,900/oz and US$3,675/oz, compared with the current spot price of around US$4,100/oz. The broker’s new long-term assumption is US$3,250/oz, an increase of US$450/oz.

UBS remains Overweight on the ASX gold mining sector. The broker believes a compelling case remains for increasing gold allocations amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk.

On average, the broker’s target prices for gold stocks under coverage rise by 20-35%.

The target for Regis Resources rises to $7.25 from $5.40, and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Sell.

Target price is $7.25 Current Price is $6.27 Difference: $0.98
If RRL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.48, suggesting downside of -13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SCG as Buy (1) -

Citi made minor adjustments to its net property income and finance cost assumptions for FY25-27 for Scentre Group.

This reflects current macro and market conditions. FFO/share forecasts are broadly unchanged.

Buy. Target unchanged at $4.60.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.04 Difference: $0.56
If SCG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.25, suggesting upside of 4.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SGP as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has outlined potential catalysts for Australian real estate stocks expected to emerge during the December 2025 and March 2026 quarters.

For Stockland, the broker feels the September quarter residential sales data, expected with AGM tomorrow (Oct 16), could offer a modest upside surprise.

A quarterly sales run rate of around 2,250 could prompt the market to take a more optimistic view of management’s FY26 residential settlement guidance of 7,500-8,500, suggest the analysts.

Target $6.90. Overweight. Industry view: In Line.

Target price is $6.90 Current Price is $6.20 Difference: $0.7
If SGP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.28, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates SRG as Buy (1) -

SRG Global announced the acquisition of Total Ams Pty Ltd, a national service provider to the marine infrastructure sector, for $85m and a two-year earn-out structure, with completion slated for October 31.

Bell Potter notes the consideration will be funded with cash and debt of $57.3m, with $27.7m worth of SRG shares issued to the vendors.

The acquisition is expected to be EPS accretive and the analyst lifts its EPS forecast by 16% for FY26, 22% for FY27, and 21% for FY28.

Target price is revised higher to $3 from $1.95. Buy rating unchanged.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.35
If SRG meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates SRG as Downgrade to Accumulate from Buy (2) -

Morgans raises its target for SRG Global to $3.00 from $2.10 and downgrades to Accumulate from Buy.

The broker believes the company's acquisition of marine services group Total Ams Pty Ltd (TAMS) is strategically aligned, highly earnings accretive, and enhances diversification.

TAMS was acquired for -$85m upfront (plus earn-outs to -$95m), implying to the analyst only 2.7x earnings (EBITDA), and is expected to deliver $35m of earnings in FY26.

The deal lifts the broker's FY26 and FY27 forecasts by 25% and 16%, respectively. It's felt leverage remains conservative at 0.3x.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.35
If SRG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SRG as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners notes the acquisition of Total Ams Pty Ltd by SRG Global for $85m, which is expected to add around 25% to EPS.

Total Ams is an end-to-end diversified marine infrastructure services partner, and the acquisition is funded by cash/debt of $57.3m and issuance of shares at $1.99.

The analyst also believes the addition, like the recent Diona acquisition, will enable SRG to pursue larger opportunities that may not have been available to them previously as a "standalone entity".

Shaw and Partners raises its EPS forecasts by 20%, 26%, and 26% for FY26-FY28, respectively, and the discounted cash flow valuation rises to $2.75 from $2.

A Buy rating is retained with the market cap of the stock around $800m lower than Monadelphous Group ((MND)) with forecast FY26 earnings (EBITDA) broadly the same.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $2.65 Difference: $0.1
If SRG meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.92, suggesting upside of 11.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates TLX as Buy, High Risk (1) -

Following the 3Q25 update by Telix Pharmaceuticals and an upgrade to FY25 sales guidance, Citi believes its forecast for PSMA revenue now looks conservative, and consensus is even lower than that.

The company reported 3Q sales of US$206m, where PSMA revenue was 2% ahead of the broker's forecast. The 3Q sales suggest the 4Q consensus of US$203m is low in the broker's view. 

The broker views the progress of the phase 3 BiPASS trial positively and sees the upcoming 591 safety cohort data as the next key milestone.

Target unchanged at $34. Buy, High Risk, with upside catalyst watch expiring December 18.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $14.36 Difference: $19.64
If TLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 137% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.20, suggesting upside of 63.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates TLX as Overweight (1) -

Management at Telix Pharmaceuticals has upgraded FY25 revenue guidance to US$800-820m from US$770-800m, above Morgan Stanley's forecast of US$782m and consensus of US$799m.

The broker notes PSMA imaging revenue of US$155m in 3Q25 was broadly steady quarter-on-quarter, supported by 3% volume growth and a 2% price decline.

It's noted the Illuccix label has been expanded to include patient selection for radioligand therapy in the pre-chemotherapy setting.

Morgan Stanley lifts its FY25 revenue forecast to US$809m but assumes most of the uplift is reinvested in R&D.

The broker's target price edges down to $25.40 from $25.60, and an Overweight rating is retained. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $25.40 Current Price is $14.36 Difference: $11.04
If TLX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 77% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.20, suggesting upside of 63.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TLX as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has a Buy rating and $22.60 target price on Telix Pharmaceuticals.

At the 3Q25 update, the company lifted FY25 revenue guidance to US$800–823m from US$770-800m, driven by a 53% y/y surge in the September quarter revenue to US$203m.

The granting of full transitional pass-through (TPT) reimbursement for Gozellix in the US is expected to support revenue growth in the PSMA PET business in the December quarter.

The broker notes the guidance also reflects a full-year contribution from the RLS radiopharmacy network. EPS forecast for FY25 lifted by 15.5% and by 55.5% for FY26.

Target price is $22.60 Current Price is $14.36 Difference: $8.24
If TLX meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 57% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.20, suggesting upside of 63.2% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLX as Buy (1) -

Telix Pharmaceuticals’ September quarter revenue of US$206m was in line with UBS expectations, with Illuccix contributing US$155m versus the broker's US$154m forecast and above the US$151m consensus estimate.

Revenue grew 1% quarter-on-quarter and 17% year-on-year, with 3% dose volume growth, suggesting to UBS ongoing Illuccix uptake.

The revenue lift was despite pricing pressure following the June expiry of transitional pass-through (TPT), notes the broker. The latter was a temporary US reimbursement policy that had benefited Illuccix.

Full-year 2025 revenue guidance was lifted to US$800-820m from US$770-800m, reflecting inclusion of Gozellix sales, explain the analysts.

Revised guidance implies to UBS around 8% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth for Illuccix and Gozellix in the December quarter.

The broker retains a Buy rating and $31.00 target.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $14.36 Difference: $16.64
If TLX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 116% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $27.20, suggesting upside of 63.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VAU as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Across UBS’s ASX gold coverage, equities imply gold prices of between US$2,900/oz and US$3,675/oz, compared with the current spot price of around US$4,100/oz. The broker’s new long-term assumption is US$3,250/oz, an increase of US$450/oz.

UBS remains Overweight on the ASX gold mining sector. The broker believes a compelling case remains for increasing gold allocations amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, weaker growth, higher inflation, and persistent geopolitical risk.

On average, the broker’s target prices for gold stocks under coverage rise by 20-35%.

The target for Vault Minerals rises to 90c from 72c, and the rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral.

Target price is $0.90 Current Price is $0.71 Difference: $0.19
If VAU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.83, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates VCX as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley has outlined potential catalysts for Australian real estate stocks expected to emerge during the December 2025 and March 2026 quarters.

For Vicinity Centres, the broker notes Chatswood Chase’s reopening has been delayed from October 2025 to late FY26, with the outcome expected to be in line with expectations.

FY26 funds from operations (FFO) guidance was 15.0-15.2cpu, note the analysts, with performance largely dependent on the centre’s successful reopening.

Underweight. Target price $2.38. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $2.38 Current Price is $2.54 Difference: minus $0.16 (current price is over target).
If VCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.49, suggesting downside of -2.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY26:

Forecast for FY27:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates VSL as Neutral (3) -

UBS warns New Zealand building materials conditions may worsen before improving. Valuing cyclicals is difficult at this point in the cycle, notes the broker, with near-term earnings risk offset by a better medium-term outlook.

Volumes for 1Q26 have weakened further, driven by a soft Auckland housing market, a lull in major infrastructure work, and margin pressure across Distribution, Concrete and Insulation, caution the analysts. A material recovery is not anticipated until 2027.

For Vulcan Steel, the broker has left its FY26 forecasts unchanged, assuming no organic growth in New Zealand and modest earnings improvement in Australia.

Earnings growth in FY26 is expected to be driven primarily by acquisitions. Unchanged Neutral rating and $7.00 target.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $7.17 Difference: minus $0.17 (current price is over target).
If VSL meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources