Australian Broker Call

Citi rates BAL as Upgrade to Buy from Sell (1) -

A previously rather sceptical Citi has changed its tune on Bellamy's. Trading momentum is accelerating and the turnaround is occurring faster than expected, the analysts acknowledge.

It is not too late to get on board, say the analysts. Forecasts have been lifted. Double whammy upgrade to Buy/High Risk from Sell/High Risk. Citi also suggests short covering can become an issue with a lack of negative catalysts on the horizon.

Target price jumps to $14.40 from $7.90.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $11.45 Difference: $2.95
If BAL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.18, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Citi has rejigged its valuation methodology for BHP. The analysts argue PE's are becoming less relevant for resources stocks due to legacy D&A and as cash continues to be the focus for investors.

Hence, while reducing forecasts by -3-4%, including FX impact, the price target lifts to $29 from $26. Neutral rating retained.

Noteworthy is the fact Citi’s commodities research team has iron ore prices moderating to US$53/t in CY18 and further to US$50/t in CY19. This means there remains considerable upside potential with spot prices trading at around US$63/t.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.17 Difference: $1.83
If BHP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.70, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse observes iron ore production was the only soft outcome in the September quarter, below the required run rate for FY18,, albeit already flagged.

The broker believes the stock has had a solid run up on the back of resilient commodity prices but, as it has run past valuation, retains a Neutral rating at this time. Target is $26.50.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $27.17 Difference: minus $0.67 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $29.70, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Oil and copper production were ahead of Deutsche Bank forecasts in the September quarter while iron ore and metallurgical coal were below. FY18 production guidance is unchanged for all key commodities.

Deutsche Bank retains a Buy rating on valuation and the potential upside from the recent change in strategy. Target is $29.50.

Target price is $29.50 Current Price is $27.17 Difference: $2.33
If BHP meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.70, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BHP as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes a slow start to the year for iron ore and metallurgical coal could leave the company at risk of missing its shipment guidance. The broker believes upside risk exists to forecasts using current spot prices.

Cuts to iron ore metallurgical coal volumes translate to a -3% reduction to FY18 earnings estimates and the increase in Escondida output drives a 3% upgrade to FY19 estimates. Outperform rating and $31 target retained.

Target price is $31.00 Current Price is $27.17 Difference: $3.83
If BHP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.70, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -

Base metals and petroleum beat Morgan Stanley's estimates in the September quarter while bulk commodities were slightly below expectations. Production and capital expenditure guidance are unchanged.

Morgan Stanley believes the key to unlocking additional equity value is for the company to convince the market it will act more carefully with the cash flow it generates, compared with the last five years.

Overweight rating, Attractive sector view retained. Target is $33.50.

Target price is $33.50 Current Price is $27.17 Difference: $6.33
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.70, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BHP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes the Western Australian iron ore division, which accounts for around 60% of earnings, had a weak start to the year. The decline quarter on quarter was attributed to maintenance, port de-bottlenecking and low stocks.

Copper production was ahead of forecasts, supported by a ramp-up of Escondida's expansion. Ord Minnett acknowledges the difference with rival Rio Tinto ((RIO)) is becoming more marginal and could close following the full disposal of US onshore assets.

Hold rating. Target is $29.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $27.17 Difference: $1.83
If BHP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.70, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -

Petroleum delivered ahead of UBS expectations while copper volumes improved 4% in the September quarter.

While iron ore stockpile levels have been rebuilt and productivity improved, UBS forecasts FY18 conservatively at 236mt.

Buy rating retained. Target is $30.00.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $27.17 Difference: $2.83
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $29.70, suggesting upside of 12.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BTT as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley expects a solid FY17 result. Yet the broker is less confident regarding the flow outlook for JO Hambro retail, as there are signs of flow maturity in the UK, and remains concerned about the relationship with Westpac ((WBC)).

Westpac's ownership recently reduced to 10% from 30% and it can sell down further from May next year. Westpac is still due to redeem around $2bn of MySuper funds under management in the first half. This raises the question about further pricing of flow pressure.

Overweight. Industry view In-Line.Target is reduced to $12.70 from $13.50.

Target price is $12.70 Current Price is $11.26 Difference: $1.44
If BTT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.65, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

Q1 market update showed growth in constant currency terms slightly above expectations, but Citi suggests growth will "normalise" in Q2 due to a contract loss. What has the analysts' attention is management flagging cost pressures are mounting across the portfolio.

Citi analysts are now worried about margin pressure. They suggest Brambles should start including earnings indications in its trading updates as that would provide a clearer picture about where earnings momentum is heading.

The one conclusion Citi is willing to draw is that management's new commentary on costs confirms the view that EBIT will continue to grow at a level below that of revenue. Neutral rating retained. Target $9.70.

Target price is $9.70 Current Price is $9.33 Difference: $0.37
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.39, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

The company reported 6% revenue growth in the September quarter, in line with Credit Suisse estimates.

Pricing  in the US is flat and, given concerns regarding competition from whitewood pallets  and PECO, this appears to the broker to be a good outcome.

Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating. Target is raised to $9.00 from $8.90.

Target price is $9.00 Current Price is $9.33 Difference: minus $0.33 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $10.39, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BXB as Hold (3) -

The September quarter sales trading update was slightly better than Morgans expected. The broker upgrades FY18 underlying earnings estimates by 2%.

The broker believes, in the short-term, the operating environment is challenging, especially in the US, and ongoing cost pressures are likely to limit earnings growth over the next few years.

Morgans maintains a Hold rating and raises the target to $9.46 from $9.28.

Target price is $9.46 Current Price is $9.33 Difference: $0.13
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.39, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett observes the company got off to a good start in FY18 and was particularly pleased with the US pooling performance.

The broker believes there are enough mitigating factors in terms of cost pressures to challenge the view that US margins are headed for collapse. The broker welcomed revenue growth of 9%, albeit below expectations.

Buy rating and $12.65 target.

Target price is $12.65 Current Price is $9.33 Difference: $3.32
If BXB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.39, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Constant currency revenue growth was 6% in the September quarter, supported by a rebound in CHEP Americas and an 8% rise in Europe, Middle East and Africa.

UBS considers the quarterly update supports a positive view of the profitable sustainability of the pallet pooling model despite a number of temporary pressures. Direct costs in lumber, labour and transport appear to be rising in the US and UBS factors this into forecasts.

Buy rating and $11.40 target retained.

Target price is $11.40 Current Price is $9.33 Difference: $2.07
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.39, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CSL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse observes the company's target for plasma centres is on track, with 20-25 centres expected to be added in FY18.

The broker believes the decision to invest aggressively over the last four years in both plasma collection and fractionation capacity remains strategically sound. The broker increases volume growth assumptions for immunoglobulin/albumin.

Target is raised to $150 from $133 and Outperform retained.

Target price is $150.00 Current Price is $141.45 Difference: $8.55
If CSL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $140.77, suggesting downside of -0.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CWN as Neutral (3) -

The company has rejected the allegations made in parliament regarding improper manipulation of poker machines and other inappropriate conduct. Credit Suisse considers the share price reaction of -5% was probably an over--reaction but suspects it closed low enough to create a buying opportunity.

Only one of the allegations is of concern to the broker and, should the allegation turn into a formal accusation by regulatory body, the penalties are unlikely to change the value of the company.

Neutral retained. Target is $12.00.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $11.24 Difference: $0.76
If CWN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.70, suggesting upside of 16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLN as Neutral (3) -

September quarter cash receipts were down -2%. While there were qualitative improvements, UBS observes this is not yet flowing to cash receipts.

Without witnessing a re-acceleration in top line growth from changes that have been implemented, the broker reduces growth forecasts. Revised forecasts incorporate a more moderate recovery in the revenue growth profile of 1% in 2017 and 11% in 2018.

Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $0.50 from $0.70.

Target price is $0.50 Current Price is $0.49 Difference: $0.015
If FLN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Deutsche Bank rates GNC as Buy (1) -

A lack of rainfall in September has led to further damage to the FY18 winter crop. However, recent October rains reduce the risk of further yield downside and assist summer crop soil conditions.

Hence, Deutsche Bank revises the FY18 crop estimates down by -10%. The broker believes the below-trend crop has been excessively discounted in the current share price. Buy rating retained. Target is $10.

Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $8.52 Difference: $1.48
If GNC meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.63, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates LLC as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

The company expects a small number of engineering projects will underperform prior expectations. This will mean first half Australian construction operating earnings are below the prior first half.

Credit Suisse reduces FY18 forecasts for earnings per share by -9%. Around 4% of the reduction reflects a more conservative margin assumption for Australian construction earnings.

The write-down is likely to weigh on investor sentiment, in the broker's opinion, as this is one of the company's key earnings drivers.

The partial sell down of retirement is also dilutive and the broker downgrades to Neutral from Outperform. Target is reduced to $18.94 from $19.66.

Target price is $18.94 Current Price is $16.65 Difference: $2.29
If LLC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.99, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LLC as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley acknowledges the benefits of the company's diversified business model, after the market update from the sale of the 25% stake in its retirement business.

Potential downgrades to FY18 estimates and a setback in the infrastructure-linked engineering business could temper the re-rating potential in the near-term, in the broker's opinion.

Overweight. Target is $19.75. Industry view is Cautious.

Target price is $19.75 Current Price is $16.65 Difference: $3.1
If LLC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.99, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LLC as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett updates estimates following the sale of 25% of the retirement business to APG Asset Management for $450m.

The broker believes a part sale is a reasonable outcome and positions the company to re-deploy capital away from retirement, while surplus liquidity should support a share buyback of up to $500m.

The broker maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $16.50 from $17.00.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $16.65 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If LLC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $17.99, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates MQG as Neutral (3) -

Activity trends in the September quarter appear to Credit Suisse to be softer, although the company did experience reasonable Australian assets under management growth and higher Asian equity market turnover.

Credit Suisse notes a sharp pull-back in Dealogic investment banking fees booked by Macquarie Group and softer Australian dollar FX turnover.

The broker retains a Neutral rating. Target is $100.

Target price is $100.00 Current Price is $92.93 Difference: $7.07
If MQG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $89.09, suggesting downside of -5.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates NUF as Initiation of coverage with Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Nufarm is now a higher quality business which retains significant earnings momentum. This transformation is not considered adequately captured in the current valuation.

The broker envisages material upside potential associated with the Omega-3 project. The company is also expected to have a role to play in industry consolidation.

Morgan Stanley initiates coverage with an Overweight rating, $10.40 target and Cautious industry view.

Target price is $10.40 Current Price is $8.56 Difference: $1.84
If NUF meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $9.31, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PPT as Sell (5) -

It came as no surprise to Citi analysts that Perpetual released a weak September quarter update. It is their view that the core Perpetual Investments business continues to struggle, irrespective of better momentum elsewhere in the business.

Citi retains its Sell rating, while slightly cutting forecasts. Target remains untouched at $50.25.

Perpetual needs global equities inflows, point out the analysts. Thus far, however, global equities has seen no net flows despite Perpetual’s global share fund outperforming its benchmark on a one-year horizon in the year to September 2017.

Target price is $50.25 Current Price is $51.18 Difference: minus $0.93 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $50.86, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PPT as Outperform (1) -

The company reported September funds under management of $31bn, down -1% and below Credit Suisse expectations.

The broker is more optimistic about growth outside of Perpetual Investments and believes the disciplined cost management and strategy in Perpetual Private and Corporate Trust should lead to a stronger rebound in earnings than anticipated by consensus.

Outperform. Target is reduced to $55.50 from $56.50.

Target price is $55.50 Current Price is $51.18 Difference: $4.32
If PPT meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $50.86, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PPT as Equal-weight (3) -

Net outflows total $700m in the September quarter, driven by  an institutional mandate loss. This is the third consecutive quarter of outflows from Australian equities.

All else being being equal, this presents around -4% downside risk to Morgan Stanley's FY18 earnings estimates, although this ignores the benefit of stronger market returns to the company's Private revenue.

The broker retains an Equal-weight rating. Target is $51.00. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $51.00 Current Price is $51.18 Difference: minus $0.18 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $50.86, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PPT as Sell (5) -

Investment outflows continued in the September quarter, driving funds under management down by $400m to $31bn.

In the absence of stronger investment markets or negligible group costs growth, UBS believes earnings could stagnate over the next 2-3 years.

With the significant downside risks to forecasts, the broker reiterates a Sell rating. Target is reduced to $47.65 from $48.10.

Target price is $47.65 Current Price is $51.18 Difference: minus $3.53 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $50.86, suggesting upside of 1.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie believes QBE provides greater upside potential versus Insurance Australia Group ((IAG)) and Suncorp ((SUN)), given the leverage to re-pricing in the international insurance markets.

The broker reduces the 2017 combined operating ratio to 102% versus the company's guiding range of 100-102%, assuming further downside risk. FX and bond yield upgrades also increase 2018 estimates of earnings per share by 10%.

Outperform retained. Target is reduced to $12.40 from $12.50.

Target price is $12.40 Current Price is $10.61 Difference: $1.79
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.49, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QBE as Upgrade to Hold from Lighten (3) -

Ord Minnett envisages risk of an upward turn in the insurance cycle and increases earnings estimates for QBE.

While there have been no benefits sighted from any of the company's targeted improvements in claims or expense ratios, the broker continues to assume some improvement will come through eventually and provide an additional boost to the upward turn in the cycle.

Rating is upgraded to Hold from Lighten. Target is raised to $10.95 from $9.80.

Target price is $10.95 Current Price is $10.61 Difference: $0.34
If QBE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.49, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY17:

Forecast for FY18:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RCW as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage with an Add rating and 39c target. RightCrowd is a software company managing the intersection between business systems and physical access control systems, such as swipe card door access.

Morgans believes the key to the company's business model is its vendor independence: its ability to take data feeds from HRM and ERP systems and apply business logic, implementing this with a variety of physical access control systems.

Target price is $0.39

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RSG as Outperform (1) -

The resource estimate has been updated for the company's 90%-owned Bibiani gold mine in Ghana. Bibiani is now 2.5m oz resource.

Macquarie considers this an important step towards recommencing production and models first gold around mid 2019.

Outperform and $1.50 target retained.

Target price is $1.50 Current Price is $1.07 Difference: $0.427
If RSG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.57, suggesting upside of 51.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SEK as Sell (5) -

Australian job ads growth is accelerating and Citi analysts have increased forecasts for Seek. Revised estimates now imply 10% volume growth in Australia in FY18; this pushes up EPS forecasts by 2% in FY18-20.

Target price increases slightly to $13.80 (up 5c) but with the share price significantly higher, Citi sticks with the Sell rating.

Given the strength of the current trends in the company's core business, Citi analysts would not be surprised if guidance is upgraded at the company's AGM, scheduled for 29th November.

Target price is $13.80 Current Price is $18.18 Difference: minus $4.38 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.85, suggesting downside of -7.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SFH as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Specialty Fashion's market update revealed the company is struggling to boost sales following a weaker winter fashion season in 2017, comment Citi analysts. The profit warning has triggered significant reductions in forecasts.

In addition, the weak trading conditions pull the highly geared balance sheet into focus. Citi thinks this is yet another reason to be more cautious. The company is closing down stores, but the analysts argue there is no visibility on the outlook for sales and earnings.

Downgrade to Neutral/High Risk from Buy/High Risk. Target price declines to 25c from 45c.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.22 Difference: $0.03
If SFH meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.25, suggesting upside of 28.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates TWE as Neutral (3) -

No specific earnings guidance has been provided regarding FY18, although Credit Suisse notes the company is attempting to boost US national account sales, which requires investment in price and marketing.

The company expects FY19 and FY20 will benefit from greater availability of premium wine. Credit Suisse is modelling an acceleration of growth in FY19 based on inventory-to-sales analysis. The company is confident it can achieve its 25% operating earnings/sales margins objective.

Neutral retained. Target is $14.15.

Target price is $14.15 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: minus $0.14 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates TWE as Accumulate (2) -

The company has reiterated its ambitions for a 25% operating earnings margin for FY18.

Ord Minnett observes the turnaround continues and suggests the company is deploying fast-moving-consumer-goods techniques to better manage the agricultural cycle and execute in difficult markets such as the UK and US.

The broker believes the risk/reward remains favourable. Accumulate retained. Target is raised to $15.00 from $13.50.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $14.29 Difference: $0.71
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.22, suggesting downside of -10.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY18:

Forecast for FY19:

Market Sentiment: -0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources