Australian Broker Call

Credit Suisse rates 29M as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has upgraded copper prices 3% to 12% and raises 29 Metals target price to $3.40 from $3.15

The broker is cautious on the copper outlook expecting new mine supply over 2022 and 2023 will create big surpluses into 2023 and 2024.

An operations update reveals regulatory approval for the Golden Grove paste fill plant and tailings dam has been received and the broker views Golden Grove as a catalyst.

EPS forecasts rise 71% in 2022 and 84% in 2023 before falling -20% in 2024.

Outperform rating retained on valuation and the company's rising zinc production on minimal capital expenditure.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.10 Difference: $0.3
If 29M meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.28, suggesting upside of 7.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates 360 as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has highlighted Life360 as a key small-mid cap pick for February, with the company's downloads meeting the broker's top-end estimates and app store revenue exceeding expectations, up 8% quarter-on-quarter and 78% year-on-year. 

The broker notes continuing growth of these top line metrics will likely drive stock performance, and finds continued momentum likely given upgrades and insider buying. 

The Overweight rating and target price of $16.50 are retained. Industry view: In-Line. 

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $8.28 Difference: $8.22
If 360 meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 99% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AGL as No Rating (-1) -

Macquarie posits that AGL Energy's recent rally is limited given the lag between the movement in the forward curves and earnings arising from the quasi-regulated retail pricing environment.

While the strengthening in forward curves is positive, Macquarie doubts it is sustainable and notes NSW policy is set for renewables to enter from 2025 to 2030, which undermines the economics of base-load generators.

The broker expects a small uptick in FY22 earnings. 

Due to research restrictions, Macquarie cannot advise its valuation on AGL Energy at present.

Current Price is $7.47. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $7.37, suggesting downside of -1.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AKE as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse sharply upgrades its spot lithium price forecasts and upgrades Allkem to Outperform from Neutral.

After applying this to Allkem, and a realignment of the production profile at James Bay, the broker raises Allkem's target price to $13.20 a share from $8.70.

The broker prefers Allkem to Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) on valuation grounds, and considers Allkem offers a more diversified portfolio, better return metrics and synergies to pursue several growth channels. 

Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $11.43 Difference: $1.77
If AKE meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.70, suggesting upside of 2.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates AWC as Upgrade to Outperform from Neutral (1) -

Credit Suisse upgrades aluminium forecasts by 3% to 6% heading into 2022 due to structural tightness, the broker noting dirty smelters are under attack and that the market entered a deficit in 2021.

Credit Suisse expects price moderation in the medium term but believes demand will remain well supported through the global transition and post chip shortages, as infrastructure and solar and wind projects come on board.

Alumina Ltd is upgraded to Outperform from Neutral on valuation. Target price rises to $2.30 from $1.90.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.05 Difference: $0.25
If AWC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.19, suggesting upside of 5.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BGA as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Bega Cheese has downgraded FY22 earnings guidance to -2% to -11% below consensus forecasts as covid costs, a fiercely competitive milk procurement environment and supply chain disruption bite.

Morgans says while covid should be temporary, it is concerned about the industry structure which has resulted in increased returns to farmers at the expense of shareholders.

The broker expects the company will trade at a discount to fast-moving-consumer-goods peers and cuts earnings estimates -5.5% in FY22, -4.6% in FY23 and -4.1% in FY24.

The broker downgrades to Hold from Add. Target price falls to $5.65 from $6.53.

Target price is $5.65 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.44
If BGA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BGA as Neutral (3) -

Bega Cheese has advised of product price increases in an effort to offset recent earnings impacts from supply chain issues and covid related disruptions including factory shutdowns and increased safety costs, but UBS highlights price benefits will be realised in FY23.

The company has updated underlying earnings to $195-215m, with UBS forecasting $202m. Demand remains resilient for branded products and $36m in acquisition synergies from the Lion Dairy and Drinks acquisition offset negative margin impacts according to UBS.

The Neutral rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.61 from $5.95.

Target price is $5.61 Current Price is $5.21 Difference: $0.4
If BGA meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting upside of 8.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse upgrades its short-term base-metals forecasts; copper rising 12% and 3% in 2022 and 2023 but falling -3% from 2024 onward. Nickel price forecasts rise 18% to 27% across CY22 to CY25 given strong demand for stainless steel.

BHP's target price rises to $41 from $39.50 accordingly.

The broker notes BHP should exit BMC by mid 2022, which could yield US27cps in special dividends. Neutral rating retained. 

The broker fears BHP's dwindling portfolio could constrain the company's mid-term growth and increase merger and acquisition risks as the company chases decarbonisation trends.

Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $46.68 Difference: minus $5.68 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $43.93, suggesting downside of -4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CCX as Neutral (3) -

City Chic Collective's trading update showed higher-than-forecast sales growth but also weaker-than-expected profitability, comment analysts at Citi.

The company also announced yet another acquisition, this time of Co-Edition, USA plus-sized online marketplace. Citi notes webtraffic looks weak for the new addition and City Chic does not plan to maintain the website.

Earnings estimates have been cut by -14%-15%, pulling back the price target to $5.30 (was $6.22). Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $0.31
If CCX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CCX as Outperform (1) -

City Chic Collective's December half trading update met the broker, the company reporting a 49.8% increase in profit on the previous corresponding period, but margins were a touch softer than forecast, and roughly -30% down on pcp.

Lockdowns and higher marketing costs ate into the top-line result.

Management confirmed a second-half skew for FY22 earnings as acquisitions gather pace and lockdowns most likely ease, and the company plans to boost inventories to buttress delivery.

The broker shaves FY22 EPS -2% to allow for further potential disruptions. Outperform retained, target eases to $7.10 from $7.50.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $2.11
If CCX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 42% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CCX as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley has reported City Chic Collective's pre-announced first half results didn't meet expectations. While sales of $178m were up 50% year-on-year and a 3% beat on forecast, underlying earnings were a -16% miss on the broker's expectations.

The company closed out the half with net cash of $41m, compared to $72m at the end of FY21, driven by increased inventory investment to mitigate supply risk. Despite some short term supply concerns, Morgan Stanley remains positive on its longer-term expectations. 

The Overweight rating is retained and the target price decreases to $5.75. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $0.76
If CCX meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CCX as Buy (1) -

A first half trading update from City Chic Collective has reported revenue increased 49.8% to $178.3m, with UBS noting growth was driven by strong results in the Americas and online in Australia & New Zealand and a near-term revenue drag from omicron impacts is expected.

UBS also highlighted City Chic Collective's proactive approach to meeting supply chain issues, with inventory investment driving first half cash balance to $40.5m and further capital investment expected in the coming half. 

The Buy rating and target price of $6.00 are retained.

Target price is $6.00 Current Price is $4.99 Difference: $1.01
If CCX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.17, suggesting upside of 22.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CWY as Upgrade to Overweight from Equal-weight (1) -

Morgan Stanley looks to Cleanaway Waste Management's February strategy announcement, expecting capital investment and margin improvement could drive a re-rating as investors look beyond near term risks. 

The broker's base case includes a -5-10% underlying earnings headwind to FY22 driven by covid, a 33% underlying earnings margin in FY24 and capital expenditure growth of $100m per annum between FY22-FY26, noting strong liquidity supports upside risk. 

The rating is upgraded to Overweight from Equal-Weight and the target price increases to $3.30 from $2.78. Industry view: Cautious. 

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.04 Difference: $0.26
If CWY meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.01, suggesting downside of -3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates IAG as Outperform (1) -

According to the broker's latest industry data update, Macquarie's price target for Insurance Australia Group has declined by -10c to $5.10.

Outperform rating has been retained.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.47 Difference: $0.63
If IAG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.99, suggesting upside of 10.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates IGO as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse upgrades its nickel forecasts by 18% to 27% in the near term to reflect strong stainless steel demand in 2021, but doubts this will reoccur in 2022, instead tipping a market surplus as supply rises from low-cost Indonesian producers.

It also upgrades lithium prices, expecting them to retain support into 2024 on supply constraints. Spodumene prices rise 260% to 350% over 2022 and 2023.

Meanwhile, the broker views IGO $1.2bn acquisition of Western Areas ((WSA)) as a good strategic fit but considers it expensive, and the deal is not incorporated into the broker's base case.

EPS forecasts are raised 91% to 395% across FY22 to FY24. Outperform rating retained. Target prices rises to $16.30 from $10.70.

Target price is $16.30 Current Price is $12.72 Difference: $3.58
If IGO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.68, suggesting downside of -16.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates ING as Hold (3) -

Inghams has published a weak trading update, covid taking its toll on the chicken supply chain.

No specific figures were provided but Morgans expects a material financial impost, and downgrades FY22 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts -16.5%.

Hold rating retained. Target price falls to $3.70 from $4.35.

Target price is $3.70 Current Price is $3.27 Difference: $0.43
If ING meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.97, suggesting upside of 20.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates JBH as Upgrade to Add from Hold (1) -

Morgans upgrades JB Hi-Fi to Add from Hold after the recent share-price retreat, the broker noting the company is much cheaper than its historical averages. 

It believes this is good news given it does not advise paying a premium for the company given JB Hi-Fi's limited room for network expansion but that investors now have an opportunity to enter a high-quality, dividend paying, cash generative business.

The company is set to report for the December half on February 14 and Morgans expects a considerably weaker performance given the outstanding performance in the previous year, but believes the risk is to the upside.

Earnings forecasts are unchanged. Target price steady at $54.

Target price is $54.00 Current Price is $45.12 Difference: $8.88
If JBH meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $53.39, suggesting upside of 14.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LTR as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie raises Liontown Resources's target price heading into the publication of the company's quarterly production figures.

Lithium prices and rare-earths prices soared in 2021.

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $2.20 from $1.57.

However, Pilbara Minerals ((PLS)) remains the broker's key pick given it offers near-term production growth.

Target price is $1.57 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: minus $0.15 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MAF as Buy (1) -

MA financial Group is expanding its footprint in Australia's mortgage market through the acquisition of Finsure, one of the top four mortgage aggregators with $61bn of loans on platform.

Ord Minnett finds the price paid inexpensive and projects 5% EPS accretion on top of long term opportunity through product development and additional distribution.

To keep the good news going, the company has also delivered upgraded guidance. Ord Minnett reiterates its Buy rating. Target price climbs to $12 from $10.50.

Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $8.83 Difference: $3.17
If MAF meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates MHJ as Buy (1) -

Citi analysts report Michael Hill's Q2 sales numbers were better-than-expected across all regions. As sales are extremely seasonal, the upside surprise implies operational profits (EBIT) might be 24% to 34% above the broker's forecast.

Citi points at gross margin expansion and a strong balance sheet, believing the market place strategy has the potential to drive international growth, while M&A remains an additional option.

The broker reiterates its Buy rating for the stock, with a target price of $1.66 (jumping up rather strongly).

Target price is $1.66 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.21
If MHJ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates MHJ as Outperform (1) -

Michael Hill International's second-quarter sales and business update and December-half guidance sharply outpaced Macquarie, thanks to strong sales and margin expansion (struck on brand elevation and operational improvements).

FY22 EPS forecasts rise roughly 5%, and Macquarie's target price escalates to $1.72 from $1.08.

The broker expects expansion announcements at the December-half result.

Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $1.72 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0.27
If MHJ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NIC as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse upgrades its nickel forecasts 18% to 27% in the near term, thanks to strong demand from stainless steel in 2021.

The broker doubts this will be sustained in 2022 as low-cost supply from Indonesia flows through.

EPS forecasts edge up accordingly. Target price rises to $1.70 from $1.40.

Outperform rating retained, Credit Suisse citing a potential reversal of 2021 unit costs; updates on the RKEF conversion project; and potential maiden production from Angel.

Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.62 Difference: $0.08
If NIC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.60, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Citi analysts continue to forecast solid funds flows and ongoing potential upside over the next 1 to 2 years as industry dynamics remain favourable for challengers like Netwealth.

Rising rates do act as a headwind to valuation, but the analysts consider higher rates should be a positive for cash margins and thus could represent earnings upside.

Neutral rating retained as Citi continues to struggle with the valuation, while the price target climbs to $16.40 (up from $15.95).

Target price is $16.40 Current Price is $15.42 Difference: $0.98
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.06, suggesting upside of 13.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ORG as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie expects Origin Energy will continue to benefit from the strong oil price and combination of contract and spot sales as the power price rally endures.

But the broker says a material flow-through to earnings is delayed to FY24.

Macquarie says the company's solid cash flow suggests it is well-placed for buybacks and storage investments.

EPS forecasts rise 5.8% in FY22; 21% in FY23; and 31% in FY24.

Outperform rating retained. Target price increases to $5.90 from $5.69. 

Target price is $5.90 Current Price is $5.75 Difference: $0.15
If ORG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.94, suggesting upside of 3.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates OZL as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse has upgraded copper prices 3% to 12% and raises OZ Minerals' target price to $22.80 from $21.30.

The broker is cautious on the copper outlook expecting new mine supply over 2022 and 2023 will create big surpluses into 2023 and 2024.

EPS forecasts rise 21% in 2022 and 3% in 2023 before falling -12% in 2024.

Underperform rating retained, the broker believing the company is expensive relative to global copper peers.

Target price is $22.80 Current Price is $28.75 Difference: minus $5.95 (current price is over target).
If OZL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $25.48, suggesting downside of -10.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PAR as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -

Morgans upgrades Paradigm Biopharmaceuticals to Hold from Reduce after a recent share-price retreat.

The broker says the company is trading marginally below valuation.

Morgans expects a big increase in costs as Paradigm enters its trial stage and sees no balancing catalysts in the near term, hence the Hold rating.

Target price steady at $1.68.

Target price is $1.68 Current Price is $1.72 Difference: minus $0.04 (current price is over target).
If PAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PDL as Outperform (1) -

A quarter of positive market moves could not prevent Pendal Group from suffering further net outflows. Credit Suisse, in response to the asset manager's market update, comments outflows were expected, but not in the magnitude as reported.

Q1 saw net outflows of $6.8bn which amounts to -4.9% of funds under administration, points out the broker.

On the contrary, reported $43m in performance fees for the quarter were well ahead of forecasts with consensus positioned around $20m, according to the broker.

Earnings estimates have been reduced. Target price declines to $6.85 from $7.20. Outperform rating reiterated.

Target price is $6.85 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $1.85
If PDL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 37% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.93, suggesting upside of 46.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PDL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes Pendal Group's share price already reflects impacts of recent high outflows. Excluding a previously flagged -$5.1m in outflows related to UK redemptions, Pendal Group has reported outflows of -$1.7bn, exceeding Morgan Stanley's forecast of -$0.6bn.

Despite large outflows in the December quarter, the broker notes strong performance and ESG strategy will support the share price over time.

The Overweight rating and target price of $8.80 are retained. Industry view: In Line. 

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $3.8
If PDL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 76% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.93, suggesting upside of 46.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PDL as Buy (1) -

It is UBS's view that Pendal Group stock is currently oversold despite the stock de-rating in recent months. The company's underlying net outflows of -$1.1bn in the December quarter was disappointing compared to the broker's expected $0.2bn inflow.

Total net outflows of -$6.8bn, which drove some market shock, included a one-off -$5.1bn in UK mandate losses.

The Buy rating is retained and the target price decreases to $7.20 from $7.95.

Target price is $7.20 Current Price is $5.00 Difference: $2.2
If PDL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 44% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.93, suggesting upside of 46.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PLS as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

Credit Suisse has upgraded its spot lithium forecasts.

When applied to Pilbarra, and after rejigging the company's production profile to align with recent downgraded guidance, the broker raises the target price to $3.95 from $2.05.

Rating upgraded to Neutral from Underperform, the broker wary of the gap between its share price and EV momentum estimates, and prefers Allkem ((AKE)) and IGO ((IGO)) in the sector.

Target price is $3.95 Current Price is $3.72 Difference: $0.23
If PLS meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.54, suggesting downside of -5.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse upgrades its copper forecasts 12% and 3% in 2022 and 2023, and downgrades 2024 forecasts -3% as new supply comes on line. Aluminum price estimates rise 4% to 8% across 2022 to 2025, the broker anticipating a protracted supply deficit.

Given aluminium is likely to remain Rio Tinto's second largest earnings driver, and given likely resolution in Mongolia versus growing opposition to the Serbian lithium project, the broker raises the target price to $110 from $106.

Outperform rating retained, Credit Suisse believing the company offers present value while likely to outperform peers in 2022.

Target price is $110.00 Current Price is $110.60 Difference: minus $0.6 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $108.07, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates S32 as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse has rebuilt its S32 model, which includes recent commodity price upgrades, and believes the company is at a turning point as its main commodities fall into structural deficit in 2022.

Credit Suisse expects this will drive strong returns, allowing strong organic growth, with the Sierra Gorda purchase, the Alumar restart and Hermosa polymetallic project all proving potential catalysts.

Downside risks include Australian labour shortages, higher costs and operational and growth challenges. The broker also notes the growing threat of carbon taxes.

The broker cuts FY22 EPS -26% and FY23 EPS -12% to reflect accounting treatments for the Sierra Gorda acquisition. 

Outperform rating retained. Target price rises to $5.40 from $5.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.18 Difference: $1.22
If S32 meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.61, suggesting upside of 13.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SFR as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse has upgraded copper prices 3% to 12% and raises Sandfire Resources' target price to $7.60 from $6.40.

The broker is cautious on the copper outlook expecting new mine supply over 2022 and 2023 will create big surpluses into 2023 and 2024.

EPS forecasts rise 20% in 2022; 68% in 2023; and 50% in 2024, the broker noting the company's hedge finishes in the December quarter of 2024.

Neutral rating retained. While the completion of the Spanish MATSA acquisition is expected to give Sandfire leverage to high zinc and copper prices, the broker spies tight free cash flow given increased development and exploration costs; higher energy prices at MATSA; and near-term labour tightness in WA.

Target price is $7.60 Current Price is $7.08 Difference: $0.52
If SFR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.03, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STX as Outperform (1) -

Strike Energy is set to start drilling its large South Erregulla prospect. Macquarie reports that success rates in Perth basin deep gas have been extremely high.

The broker downgrades EPS forecasts -4% for FY23; -3% for FY24 and -7% for FY25 to reflect softer condensate revenues at West Erregulla.

Target price eases -4% to 48c to reflect more conservative valuations on Project Haber and South Erregulla.

Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $0.48 Current Price is $0.20 Difference: $0.28
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 140% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SUN as Outperform (1) -

Suncorp Group's price target at Macquarie has crept up to $14.40 from $14.30 as shown in the latest insurance sector update.

Macquarie's proprietary data survey seems to suggest there is downward pressure on home insurance policies with December quarter data -0.8% from the prior September quarter.

Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $14.40 Current Price is $11.60 Difference: $2.8
If SUN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.19, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

Suncorp is scheduled to report interim financials on February 8 and Ord Minnett has updated its modeling and rolled it forward which leads to an increase in the price target, to $13.50 from $13.30.

Hold rating retained with the broker of the view management's targets will be difficult to achieve. The added observation is that the current share price is reflective of this general scepticism.

Today's update includes reduced forecasts for FY22.

Target price is $13.50 Current Price is $11.60 Difference: $1.9
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.19, suggesting upside of 12.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates WSA as Neutral (3) -

Credit Suisse upgrades its nickel forecasts 18% to 27% in the near term, thanks to strong demand from stainless steel in 2021.

The broker doubts this will be sustained in 2022 as low-cost supply from Indonesia flows through.

EPS forecasts for Western Areas rise 251% in FY22; 189% in FY23; and 238% in FY24.

Credits Suisse says strong support for the company's share price suggests a higher offer from IGO ((IGO)) may be on the cards.

Target price rises to $3.34 from $3. Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $3.34 Current Price is $3.42 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If WSA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting downside of -6.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY22:

Forecast for FY23:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources