Australian Broker Call

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March 25, 2019

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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE

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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).

Last Updated: 05:00 PM

Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.

This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.

For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE

Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
SBM - ST BARBARA Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform Credit Suisse
AIZ  AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED

Transportation & Logistics

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Overnight Price: $2.29

Credit Suisse rates AIZ as Neutral (3) -

Despite the stock falling -30% over the past two months, Credit Suisse is cautious about the potential for further earnings downgrades. Reductions to capacity growth suggest a slower pace of underlying growth and fewer efficiency gains than previously priced into the market.

The broker is comfortable with the company's current dividend profile and expects this to underpin the share price in the near term. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to NZ$2.42 from NZ$2.55.

Current Price is $2.29. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.53 cents and EPS of 22.77 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 22.9, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.53 cents and EPS of 24.82 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.97%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.23.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.2, implying annual growth of 18.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 9.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.4.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

ALL  ARISTOCRAT LEISURE LIMITED

Gaming

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Overnight Price: $24.37

Credit Suisse rates ALL as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse believes the main engine of earnings growth over the next 18 months is likely to be North America's land-based gaming business. The company's recurring revenue business may also capture improved yield.

The broker models 2.6% yield growth in 2019. However, Credit Suisse sounds a note of caution in that, in some segments, Aristocrat Leisure is establishing competitive revenue sharing arrangements with casinos to gain market share.

Outperform rating maintained. Target is $30.

Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $24.37 Difference: $5.63
If ALL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $31.68, suggesting upside of 30.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in September.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 134.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.22%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.19.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 130.9, implying annual growth of 14.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 54.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 151.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.46%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.14.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 149.1, implying annual growth of 13.9%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 62.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

BKW  BRICKWORKS LIMITED

Building Products & Services

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Overnight Price: $17.95

Macquarie rates BKW as Neutral (3) -

First half underlying net profit was supported by a strong performance in the property division, Macquarie notes. Building products were weak because of volume declines on the east coast and Western Australia.

Macquarie revises estimates for earnings per share down by -4% for FY19 and -14% for FY20. The broker notes earnings are less dependent now on the building products business which represents around 9% of group value.

Target is raised to $18.00 from $16.35. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.95 Difference: $0.05
If BKW meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.19, suggesting upside of 1.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 52.00 cents and EPS of 158.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.36.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 161.1, implying annual growth of 37.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 55.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.1.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 54.00 cents and EPS of 92.20 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 113.6, implying annual growth of -29.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

FPH  FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION LIMITED

Medical Equipment & Devices

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Overnight Price: $14.88

Credit Suisse rates FPH as Underperform (5) -

Credit Suisse notes the news of "no liability, no payment" settlement terms with ResMed ((RMD)) was well received. However, the broker believes the subsequent appreciation of the share price means it is important to focus on operations.

For some time, the broker has been concerned over valuation, rather than quality. The multiples may have been justifiable in an environment of broad-based growth and margin expansion but the broker now struggles to muster the same enthusiasm.

Underperform maintained. Target is lifted to NZ$13.15 from NZ$12.50.

Current Price is $14.88. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 22.30 cents and EPS of 34.34 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.50%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 43.33.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.0, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 22.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 30.14 cents and EPS of 43.02 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.03%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 34.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.6, implying annual growth of 21.7%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.9%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.9.

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: -0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

PMV  PREMIER INVESTMENTS LIMITED

Apparel & Footwear

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Overnight Price: $15.80

Citi rates PMV as Sell (5) -

The more traditional businesses stole the show this time, performing better-than-expected. Citi analysts are pointing out slowing sales growth at growth engine Smiggle has now triggered a change in strategy for the third time.

Citi analysts are sceptical whether the first can be considered sustainable, while the second factor somewhat vindicates their own view about the future of Smiggle. Citi thinks uncertainty around Smiggle warrants a lower multiple, hence why the Sell rating remains in place.

Earnings estimates have been reduced post the release of interim financials. Target price drops to $15.60 from $15.90.

Target price is $15.60 Current Price is $15.80 Difference: minus $0.2 (current price is over target).
If PMV meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $18.30, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 68.00 cents and EPS of 80.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.30%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.65.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of 53.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 88.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.56%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.81.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.4, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates PMV as Outperform (1) -

First half results were dominated by online growth. The company shut 12 stores and Credit Suisse observes its strategy for Smiggle means more emphasis on brand value and less on ownership of physical distribution assets.

The broker believes the market is yet to fully appreciate the long-term growth platform being created by Smiggle's pivot towards wholesale and online distribution, as brand strength mitigates wholesale risk.

Credit Suisse maintains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $17.69 from $16.82.

Target price is $17.69 Current Price is $15.80 Difference: $1.89
If PMV meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.30, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 66.80 cents and EPS of 80.35 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.23%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.66.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of 53.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 81.72 cents and EPS of 93.19 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.17%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.4, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates PMV as Outperform (1) -

First half results were solid, in Macquarie's view. The global growth strategy for Smiggle continues to evolve as the company is targeting significant wholesale and online expansion.

The broker finds the logic behind the strategy sound and expects this to underpin growth in the medium to longer term. Nevertheless, similar to the first half, this is likely to temper near-term growth as the strategy is put in place.

In sum, Premier Investments is executing well in soft market conditions, the broker observes. Outperform rating maintained. Target is reduced to $19.20 from $20.90.

Target price is $19.20 Current Price is $15.80 Difference: $3.4
If PMV meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.30, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 67.80 cents and EPS of 80.30 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.29%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 19.68.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of 53.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 74.30 cents and EPS of 88.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.70%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 17.95.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.4, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Morgan Stanley rates PMV as Equal-weight (3) -

First half results were in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. There was no specific outlook provided. The company shut 16 stores, which the broker believes is a strong message to landlords. Aggressive wholesale expansion is targeted.

Equal-weight rating,  In-Line industry view. Target is $19.00.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $15.80 Difference: $3.2
If PMV meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.30, suggesting upside of 15.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in July.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 69.10 cents and EPS of 85.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.37%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 18.59.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 81.2, implying annual growth of 53.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 67.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.5.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 76.60 cents and EPS of 95.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.85%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.63.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 91.4, implying annual growth of 12.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 76.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.8%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

QBE  QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED

Insurance

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Overnight Price: $12.39

Macquarie rates QBE as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie has reduced expectations for gross written premium growth in 2019. The broker updates FX and bond yield forecasts, incorporating two rate reductions in Australia in 2019. This has dampened the investment earnings outlook.

Macquarie retains an Outperform rating and raises the target to $13.10 from $12.60.

Target price is $13.10 Current Price is $12.39 Difference: $0.71
If QBE meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.02, suggesting upside of 5.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 56.80 cents and EPS of 85.12 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.58%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 88.4, implying annual growth of N/A.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 77.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 68.56 cents and EPS of 104.56 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.53%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.85.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 105.3, implying annual growth of 19.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 88.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8.

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

REA  REA GROUP LIMITED

Real Estate

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Overnight Price: $74.68

Morgans rates REA as Add (1) -

New for-sale listings in Australian capital cities continue to slide, which will result in lower depth listings in the second half. This leads the broker to downgrade REA earnings forecasts ahead of an expected recovery later in the calendar year.

The broker's target price remains unchanged at $89.57 following a 20% increase in the modelled valuation of Move Inc, owner of a property portal in the US. Add rating also unchanged.

Target price is $89.57 Current Price is $74.68 Difference: $14.89
If REA meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $86.44, suggesting upside of 15.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 119.00 cents and EPS of 230.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.59%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 32.47.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 228.0, implying annual growth of 18.8%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 32.8.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgans forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 132.00 cents and EPS of 276.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.77%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 27.06.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 286.0, implying annual growth of 25.4%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 146.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.1.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SBM  ST BARBARA LIMITED

Gold & Silver

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Overnight Price: $3.32

Citi rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

Citi had been sceptical about the company's Gwalia Extension Project (GEP) as well as the feasibility study for the Gwalia Mass Extraction Project (GMX), but Friday's update proved worse than feared, suggests the stockbroker.

Making matters worse, the outlook for production volumes took a dive as well for the years ahead. It was not all negatives though with management lifting FY19 guidance for the Simberi project in PNG, point out the analysts.

Citi is happy to stick with its Neutral rating for now. Target price has fallen to $3.30 from $4.60.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 34.70 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.01%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.57.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of -27.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 39.50 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 8.41.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Credit Suisse rates SBM as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -

The feasibility study at Gwalia has abandoned the underground ore pumping technology concept. The geometry could not meet the pumping rate that the pre-feasibility study had assumed. Long-term plans revert to the trucking option but this has also been downgraded.

Production guidance is also downgraded by around -20%. The stock was already trading at a premium to valuation, which Credit Suisse observes was elevated by prior guidance for higher production at lower costs.

The maturity of Gwalia is seen battling the limitations of technology. The broker considers that positive news on the Simberi sulphide expansion may offset the value lost by the downgrade to Gwalia.

Rating is upgraded to Neutral from Underperform. Target is reduced to $3.30 from $3.90.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If SBM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 30.63 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 3.61%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.84.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of -27.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 8.25 cents and EPS of 20.62 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.48%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.10.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources


Macquarie rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

The company has decided against hydraulic hoisting at the Gwalia mass extraction project. Trucking is expected to lead to a lower long-term extraction rate. Macquarie believes this rate can be improved, albeit at higher costs.

Incorporating reduced FY19 guidance means estimates for earnings per share drop -7%. Macquarie still considers Gwalia a quality long-life asset in the mid-cap gold sector.

Simberi is likely to go ahead although the company still needs another asset or two, in the broker's view. Target is reduced to $3.40 from $5.20. Neutral rating maintained.

Target price is $3.40 Current Price is $3.32 Difference: $0.08
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.88, suggesting upside of 16.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 30.90 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.41%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.74.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.3, implying annual growth of -27.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 15.00 cents and EPS of 32.40 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.52%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 10.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 33.1, implying annual growth of 2.5%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.6%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 10.0.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SUN  SUNCORP GROUP LIMITED

Banks

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Overnight Price: $13.44

Ord Minnett rates SUN as Hold (3) -

The company has announced it will pay a special dividend of $0.08 a share and will return another $500m to shareholders through a capital return and share consolidation.

Ord Minnett makes small adjustments to estimates to reflect the slightly different aspects to the return to shareholders.

The broker finds it unclear if an earnings downgrade will be necessary before the end of the financial year, but believes there should be less concern around large losses in FY20 because of a commitment to increase natural hazards allowances.

Hold retained and the target is reduced to $14.13 from $14.24.

This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.

Target price is $14.13 Current Price is $13.44 Difference: $0.69
If SUN meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $13.91, suggesting upside of 3.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 78.00 cents and EPS of 84.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.80%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.00.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.7, implying annual growth of 3.1%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 71.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9.

Forecast for FY20:

Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 66.00 cents and EPS of 90.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.91%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 14.93.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 94.0, implying annual growth of 11.0%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 74.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.3.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

SWM  SEVEN WEST MEDIA LIMITED

Print, Radio & TV

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Overnight Price: $0.50

Morgan Stanley rates SWM as Underweight (5) -

Morgan Stanley remains bearish on the outlook for the TV advertising market after another negative data point for metro advertising. On top of this, Seven West also carries a higher debt load versus its peers.

Morgan Stanley reiterates an Underweight rating and $0.45 target. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.50 Difference: minus $0.05 (current price is over target).
If SWM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.55, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY19:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 9.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 5.56.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.4, implying annual growth of 5.6%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 0.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.3.

Forecast for FY20:

Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 EPS of 8.00 cents.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 6.25.

How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?

Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.9, implying annual growth of -5.3%.

Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%.

Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.6.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Today's Price Target Changes
Company Broker New Target Prev Target Change
BKW BRICKWORKS Macquarie 18.00 16.35 10.09%
PMV PREMIER INVESTMENTS Citi 15.60 15.90 -1.89%
Credit Suisse 17.69 17.74 -0.28%
Macquarie 19.20 20.90 -8.13%
QBE QBE INSURANCE Macquarie 13.10 12.60 3.97%
SBM ST BARBARA Citi 3.30 4.60 -28.26%
Credit Suisse 3.30 3.90 -15.38%
Macquarie 3.40 5.20 -34.62%
SUN SUNCORP Ord Minnett 14.13 14.24 -0.77%
Summaries
AIZ AIR NEW ZEALAND Neutral - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $2.29
ALL ARISTOCRAT LEISURE Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $24.37
BKW BRICKWORKS Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $17.95
FPH FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $14.88
PMV PREMIER INVESTMENTS Sell - Citi Overnight Price $15.80
Outperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $15.80
Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $15.80
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $15.80
QBE QBE INSURANCE Outperform - Macquarie Overnight Price $12.39
REA REA GROUP Add - Morgans Overnight Price $74.68
SBM ST BARBARA Neutral - Citi Overnight Price $3.32
Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse Overnight Price $3.32
Neutral - Macquarie Overnight Price $3.32
SUN SUNCORP Hold - Ord Minnett Overnight Price $13.44
SWM SEVEN WEST MEDIA Underweight - Morgan Stanley Overnight Price $0.50
RATING SUMMARY
Rating No. Of Recommendations
1. Buy

5

3. Hold

7

5. Sell

3

Monday 25 March 2019

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The content of this information does in no way reflect the opinions of FNArena, or of its journalists. In fact we don't have any opinion about the stock market, its value, future direction or individual shares. FNArena solely reports about what the main experts in the market note, believe and comment on. By doing so we believe we provide intelligent investors with a valuable tool that helps them in making up their own minds, reading market trends and getting a feel for what is happening beneath the surface. This document is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or other financial instrument. FNArena employs very experienced journalists who base their work on information believed to be reliable and accurate, though no guarantee is given that the daily report is accurate or complete. Investors should contact their personal adviser before making any investment decision.