Australian Broker Call
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August 13, 2020
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1).
Last Updated: 05:06 PM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
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Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
DOW - | Downer Edi | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
JBH - | JB Hi-Fi | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform | Credit Suisse |
MTS - | Metcash | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | Citi |
SEK - | Seek Ltd | Upgrade to Hold from Reduce | Morgans |
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate | Ord Minnett |
AGL AGL ENERGY LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $16.99
Ord Minnett rates AGL as Hold (3) -
In initial response to today's release of FY20 financials, Ord Minnett comments AGL Energy's performance was in-line with earlier guidance, but the company's outlook for FY21, implying profits to plunge by -19-31%, will have come as a shock to many.
Consensus forecasts will have to reset at a lower level, predicts the broker.
One slight positive from the result, according to Ord Minnett, is the indication 100% of underlying net profit (NPAT) will be paid out in dividends in FY21-22.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $18.40 Current Price is $16.99 Difference: $1.41
If AGL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $16.45, suggesting upside of 6.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 89.00 cents and EPS of 122.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 129.2, implying annual growth of -6.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 97.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.9. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 72.00 cents and EPS of 96.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 116.9, implying annual growth of -9.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 88.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.2. |
Market Sentiment: -0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $32.39
Citi rates ALU as Neutral (3) -
Given slower-than-expected revenue growth in 2H20, Citi forecasts earnings (EBITDA) of $70m, which assumes 2H EBITDA margin declines of around -70 basis points, on a half on half (HoH) basis, to 36.8%.
The company has pre-reported revenue and key user metrics, but the broker notes the unknown from a FY20 reporting perspective are earnings and margins.
The broker forecasts FY21 profit (NPAT) of $53m for FY21 and remains cautious on the near-term outlook. The Neutral rating is maintained. The target price is $35.5.
Target price is $35.50 Current Price is $32.39 Difference: $3.11
If ALU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 21.60 cents and EPS of 33.30 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.10 cents and EPS of 40.10 cents. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AMP as Underperform (5) -
AMP has today released 1H20 results, and Macquarie upon first glance suggests the interim performance looks consistent with the pre-announcement made on 31 July 2020.
The major pieces of new information, according to the broker, include a 10cps special dividend, $200m buyback, and circa $460m repurchase of MUTB’s 15% stake in ACI.
All in all, Macquarie cannot get excited, and sticks to its Underperform rating and $1.40 price target. The analysts see ongoing downside earnings risk across all of AMP’s divisions over the medium term, which after today's comments means FY21, suggests the broker.
Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.38 Difference: $0.02
If AMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.63, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.7. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.6, implying annual growth of 17.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.9. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $35.96
UBS rates APX as Buy (1) -
UBS assesses the outlook for the second half is supported by positive industry feedback. Online hiring activity also indicates the company is progressing the US government business development.
The company's previous 2020 earnings guidance incorporated a material step-up in investment in the first half and, UBS asserts, the level of investment became uncertain as the pandemic ensued.
Hence, maintenance of the level of proposed investment at the first half results will indicate a high level of confidence by the company, although the broker does not expect a material upgrade to 2020 guidance. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $41 from $32.
Target price is $41.00 Current Price is $35.96 Difference: $5.04
If APX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $34.58, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 13.60 cents and EPS of 66.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 64.3, implying annual growth of 82.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 10.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 56.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 18.90 cents and EPS of 92.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 84.8, implying annual growth of 31.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 42.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.7
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
ARB ARB CORPORATION LIMITED
Automobiles & Components
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Overnight Price: $21.80
Credit Suisse rates ARB as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse suggests ARB Corp is in for its most positive earnings outlook in many years driven by government stimulus, forex impact and mobility changes.
There may be two game-changers in the offing, points out the broker, referring to an agreement ARB Corp signed with Ford regarding co-marketing of an ARB product with the new Ford Ranger.
The broker also suspects ARB Corp would like to own its distribution channel in the US and considers the company has a cost of capital advantage should it decide to do so. Earnings forecast for FY21 has been upgraded by 17%.
Credit Suisse reiterates its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $22 from $18.75.
Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $21.80 Difference: $0.2
If ARB meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.39, suggesting downside of -15.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 32.98 cents and EPS of 62.18 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 60.2, implying annual growth of -16.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 30.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 36.1. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 35.01 cents and EPS of 72.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.0, implying annual growth of 16.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 36.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 31.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.37
Ord Minnett rates BSL as Accumulate (2) -
Ord Minnett notes in recent weeks, the East Asia hot-rolled coil price has recovered to where it was at the beginning of 2020.
BlueScope Steel's Australian Steel Products US-dollar spreads are also back to pre-covid-19 levels. This is encouraging for BlueScope with volumes from its Australian business looking robust, comments the broker.
Ord Minnett holds onto its Accumulate recommendation with a target price of $15.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $12.37 Difference: $2.63
If BSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.53, suggesting upside of 1.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 70.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.2, implying annual growth of -63.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 27.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.9, implying annual growth of -27.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $74.34
Citi rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported a weaker-than-expected result for FY20, with cash earnings of $7,499m around -2% below consensus and Citi.
The broker highlights surprisingly strong cost growth and covid-19-related hits to other operating income (OOI) drove the result. However, this was offset by a better dividend, lower bad and doubtful debts (BDD) and stronger capital.
The bank is expected to benefit from a further circa $2bn of gain on sale earnings in FY21 to support dividends.
The analyst notes broking community consensus of BDD's for the next few years suggests the market is expecting a significantly greater impact from covid-19 than the bank does.
No change to Neutral rating or $71 price target.
Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $74.34 Difference: minus $3.34 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $67.30, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 280.00 cents and EPS of 456.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 409.6, implying annual growth of -0.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 273.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 350.00 cents and EPS of 455.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 433.0, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 317.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
In view of lower than expected bad debt and no covid-19 related provisions taken in the fourth quarter, Credit Suisse has increased its cash earnings forecasts for FY21-22.
Credit Suisse thinks of covid-19 as an earnings event rather than a balance sheet one. The broker favours banks trading below their book value, preferring Westpac ((WBC)), ANZ Bank ((ANZ)), National Australia Bank ((NAB)), then Commonwealth Bank, in that order.
Credit Suisse maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $74.80.
Target price is $74.80 Current Price is $74.34 Difference: $0.46
If CBA meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $67.30, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 196.00 cents and EPS of 392.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 409.6, implying annual growth of -0.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 273.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 279.00 cents and EPS of 430.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 433.0, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 317.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CBA as Underweight (5) -
Profit missed Morgan Stanley's forecasts although capital and credit quality were better than expected. Still, the second half outcome left several questions surrounding credit quality unanswered and the broker notes more evidence that retail bank profitability and growth remain under pressure.
While it is possible that the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority could extend dividend guidance into 2021, Morgan Stanley forecasts a cash pay-out ratio of 70% and a dividend of $3.15.
While believing Commonwealth Bank has the capacity for a higher pay-out ratio than other major banks, the broker highlights the reference to the long-standing target of 70-80%.
Morgan Stanley retains its Underweight rating. Target is reduced to $62.00 from $63.50. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $62.00 Current Price is $74.34 Difference: minus $12.34 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $67.30, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 315.00 cents and EPS of 436.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 409.6, implying annual growth of -0.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 273.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 345.00 cents and EPS of 470.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 433.0, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 317.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CBA as Hold (3) -
Commonwealth Bank reported a second-half FY20 cash net profit of $2.94bn, -5% below Ord Minnett’s forecast. A dividend of 98c (fully franked) was declared, ahead of the broker’s estimated 85c. This takes the full-year payout to $2.98 per share.
The stock is trading on a stretched valuation and, in the broker’s view, does not reflect the top-line challenges that emanate from its heavy exposure to retail banking.
While the bank is defensively positioned from a capital and provisioning standpoint, the broker feels investors are being asked to pay a very large premium for these qualities.
Ord Minnett maintains its Hold recommendation with the target price unchanged at $65.30.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $65.30 Current Price is $74.34 Difference: minus $9.04 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $67.30, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 270.00 cents and EPS of 393.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 409.6, implying annual growth of -0.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 273.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 320.00 cents and EPS of 430.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 433.0, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 317.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CBA as Neutral (3) -
Coming in at a slight delay, UBS banking analysts have decided that CommBank's FY20 performance was a "reasonable" result, only moderately below consensus expectations (-7% miss), with strong balance sheet settings.
Even though management provided lots of detail about mortgage customers and payments, UBS remains of the view that key to the asset quality remains the SME sector which employs 56% of the workforce and is under significant stress.
Proceeds from asset sales support a stable dividend payout of 98cps in 1H21, the analysts suggest, expected to improve to 130cps in 2H21, "despite elevated credit charges".
Target price rises to $72 from $65. UBS questions the size of the premium that has been built into the share price versus the rest of the pack in the Australian banking sector. Neutral.
Target price is $72.00 Current Price is $74.34 Difference: minus $2.34 (current price is over target).
If CBA meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $67.30, suggesting downside of -7.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 228.00 cents and EPS of 325.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 409.6, implying annual growth of -0.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 273.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 294.00 cents and EPS of 380.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 433.0, implying annual growth of 5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 317.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
CNI CENTURIA CAPITAL GROUP
Diversified Financials
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Overnight Price: $1.80
Ord Minnett rates CNI as Accumulate (2) -
Centuria Capital Group’s FY20 earnings are 4.5% ahead of its guidance but slightly below Ord Minnett’s forecast. This was led by lower than expected performance fees, notes the broker.
Assets under management in FY20 rose 52% over FY19 level. The acquisition of Augusta Capital and the Telstra Data Centre (acquired by Centura Industrial REIT ((CIP))) are both included in this.
The group has guided to earnings of 10.5-11.5c per share for FY21.
Ord Minnett reaffirms its Accumulate recommendation with the target price increasing to $2 from $1.80.
Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.2
If CNI meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 12.00 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 8.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates CNI as Buy (1) -
FY20 results were in line with expectations. Centuria Capital has guided to a distribution of 9.7c in FY21. The guidance reflects a lower pay-out ratio and UBS considers this sensible, given the current uncertainty.
The broker updates estimates to allow for the contribution from Augusta and the revised distribution forecasts.
UBS anticipates investors will require meaningful organic growth from these newly integrated acquisitions before further M&A is pursued. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $2.32 from $2.34.
Target price is $2.32 Current Price is $1.80 Difference: $0.52
If CNI meets the UBS target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 8.50 cents and EPS of 11.40 cents. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 10.20 cents and EPS of 12.70 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
COL COLES GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $18.99
Citi rates COL as Buy (1) -
Trading conditions for the grocery businesses in general remain buoyant and the analysts have penciled in higher than usual growth numbers for the six months ahead.
Apart from elevated sales growth, Citi cites rational market conditions and earnings/dividend stability which all justify an overweight portfolio position towards the main industry stalwarts in Australia.
Citi has retained its Buy rating for Coles, accompanied by a price target of $21.40.
Target price is $21.40 Current Price is $18.99 Difference: $2.41
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $18.19, suggesting downside of -4.4% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 68.5, implying annual growth of -15.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 57.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 27.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 72.0, implying annual growth of 5.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 60.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.22
Citi rates CPU as Sell (5) -
Computershare's FY20 EPS is in-line with its guidance of -20% year on year on a constant FX basis, which is broadly consistent with Citi's expectations.
The broker suggests the company faces significant headwinds from lower margin income and lower fixed fee revenue in UK mortgage servicing, while headwinds in US mortgage servicing continue for now.
The Sell rating is maintained. The target price is $12.
Target price is $12.00 Current Price is $13.22 Difference: minus $1.22 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.95, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 49.18 cents and EPS of 76.66 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 53.63 cents and EPS of 88.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.9, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates CPU as Neutral (3) -
Computershare’s FY20 management earnings were slightly above Credit Suisse estimate and in-line with its lowered guidance.
For FY21, the company expects earnings to decline by -11% (constant currency). This is -6% below the consensus and -2% below Credit Suisse’s forecast. Costs will be the key driver in FY21.
The broker lowers its FY21 earnings forecast by -2%.
Credit Suisse retains its Neutral rating with a target price of $13.90.
Target price is $13.90 Current Price is $13.22 Difference: $0.68
If CPU meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.95, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 57.94 cents and EPS of 74.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 60.91 cents and EPS of 80.03 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.9, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates CPU as Overweight (1) -
Computershare is guiding for FY21 management earnings to fall -11% which Morgan Stanley considers conservative.
The broker cites support from structural and cyclical growth in US mortgage servicing and some defensive qualities in the stock.
Growth is expected to resume in FY22 as headwinds to margin and corporate actions abate.
The broker retains an Overweight rating and the target is reduced to $15.75 from $16.00. Industry view is In-Line.
Target price is $15.75 Current Price is $13.22 Difference: $2.53
If CPU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.95, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 77.11 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 82.16 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.9, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates CPU as Add (1) -
Computershare’s FY20 management EPS was down -20% on the previous corresponding period, in-line with recent company guidance.
The broker states the drivers were reduced margin income, incremental mortgage servicing rights (MSR) amortisation and the UK assets resolution (UKAR) fixed-fee roll-off, which offset cost savings and some operational earnings growth.
The company guides to a further -11% decline in management EPS for FY21. This disappointed, according to Morgans, and the broker downgrades EPS estimates for FY21 and FY22 by -5% and -7% respectively.
The analyst highlights that a tough macroeconomic environment is actually obscuring some anticipated underlying business growth.
The Add rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $14.22 from $13.90.
Target price is $14.22 Current Price is $13.22 Difference: $1
If CPU meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.95, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 46.06 cents and EPS of 74.28 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 47.54 cents and EPS of 83.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.9, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates CPU as Lighten (4) -
Computershare’s FY20 earnings were in-line with the lowered guidance although -20% lower than last year on a constant currency basis. Operating income was flat (excluding margin income) driven by one-off covid-19 related expenses, reports Ord Minnett.
The company guides to a sharp reduction in margin income in FY21 but also expects a recovery in underlying performance, with the group growing 2-5%. The broker considers the guidance to be too optimistic.
Ord Minnett maintains its Lighten recommendation with a target price of $10.75.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $10.75 Current Price is $13.22 Difference: minus $2.47 (current price is over target).
If CPU meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $12.95, suggesting downside of -1.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 47.54 cents and EPS of 72.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 70.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 52.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 47.54 cents and EPS of 75.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 76.9, implying annual growth of 9.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 48.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.30
Citi rates DOW as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Citi suggests Downer EDI should re-rate with an outlook for stronger and more resilient earnings and a stronger balance sheet after the recent capital raising.
Resilient second half revenues were a standout feature of the FY20 result for the broker. The analyst upgrades FY21 profit (NPATA) estimates by 29%, revenue by 10% and EBITA margins by around 40 basis points.
The rating is upgraded to Buy from Neutral. The target price is increased to $5.32 from $4.65.
Target price is $5.32 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $1.02
If DOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.70 cents and EPS of 36.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.30 cents and EPS of 41.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates DOW as Outperform (1) -
Downer EDI’s FY20 result was in-line with Credit Suisse's forecast.
No FY21 guidance was provided owing to the uncertainty stemming from covid-19. The broker notes management is optimistic about the company’s urban services division, led by high exposure to government-backed contracts.
Winding down of the construction businesses is well on its way, notes the broker. No material changes have been made to the broker's forecast.
Credit Suisse reiterates its Outperform rating with a target price of $4.70.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.4
If DOW meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 19.38 cents and EPS of 30.01 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 22.76 cents and EPS of 37.43 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates DOW as Equal-weight (3) -
Morgan Stanley notes most of the FY20 results were pre-guided at the recent equity raising. The outlook centres on robust utilities revenue but lower margins as the NBN construction work rolls off.
Management also appears less confident on the near-term uplift to earnings from government work. The exit of mining and laundries remains the company's intention.
Asset services appear to the broker to be a growth area but nearer term an uplift is unlikely because of lower commodity prices.
Equal-weight rating and a target price of $4.60. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.3
If DOW meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 32.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 36.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates DOW as Hold (3) -
Downer EDI’s FY20 result was in-line with its guidance but operating income was down -26% year on year. The company did not announce a final dividend.
Ord Minnett notes FY20 failed to show cash-backed earnings and expects cash conversion to be soft in the first half of FY21.
While the core business showed resilience, the broker points out the company’s non-core business was on the weaker side, and responsible for most of the decline seen in operating income.
Except for unwinding its construction business, there has been no progress on exiting the non-core business, a point the broker feels will drag down future results.
Ord Minnett retains its Hold recommendation with a target price of $4.70.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $4.70 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.4
If DOW meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 35.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates DOW as Neutral (3) -
FY20 net profit was in line with expectations. In FY21 Downer EDI will allocate -$150m towards restructuring, including winding down its non-core construction ventures and "hibernating" hospitality/events.
The focus will be on urban services, which UBS observes should carry lower risk and provide more stable cash generation. The broker retains a Neutral rating, which is under review. Target is raised to $4.50 from $4.42.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.30 Difference: $0.2
If DOW meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.76, suggesting upside of 10.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 14.00 cents and EPS of 39.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 35.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 46.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 39.2, implying annual growth of 11.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 21.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $20.00
UBS rates EBO as Buy (1) -
UBS expects FY22 revenue to be up 29% with growth in the second half driven by pharmacy, contract logistics, institutional healthcare and animal care.
In addition, the diversified business model and superior execution should mean continuous outperformance versus peers. The broker estimates the business still has $300m of capacity on the balance sheet for M&A. Buy rating retained. Target is NZ$27.20.
Current Price is $20.00. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $24.54, suggesting upside of 22.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 74.00 cents and EPS of 101.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 101.7, implying annual growth of 13.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.6. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 79.00 cents and EPS of 109.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 110.7, implying annual growth of 8.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
FBU FLETCHER BUILDING LIMITED
Building Products & Services
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Overnight Price: $3.13
Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Equal-weight (3) -
Further to the pre-release of FY20 results, Morgan Stanley notes construction cycles appear to be deteriorating and the extent to which the benefits could be retained is unclear.
While there is longer-term opportunity, the broker believes the cycle is unfavourable and retains its Equal-weight rating. Target is reduced to NZ$3.90 from NZ$4.10 and in Australian dollar terms to $3.68 from $3.87. Industry view is Cautious.
Target price is $3.68 Current Price is $3.13 Difference: $0.55
If FBU meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.68, suggesting upside of 19.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 10.40 cents and EPS of 9.17 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 25.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 12.29 cents and EPS of 18.06 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.0, implying annual growth of 40.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 91.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 29.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.1. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $46.30
Credit Suisse rates JBH as Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform (3) -
Government support measures, particularly superannuation withdrawals, have led to a near term bubble in household goods spending, suggest the analysts, leading Credit Suisse to upgrade its forecasts for JB Hi-Fi till the first half FY21.
The broker expects JB Hi-Fi’s net profit for FY20 to be $325m. The company will report its FY20 results on August 17.
Credit Suisse upgrades its rating to Neutral from Underperform with the target price increasing to $42.71 from $34.52.
Target price is $42.71 Current Price is $46.30 Difference: minus $3.59 (current price is over target).
If JBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $41.70, suggesting downside of -10.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 173.00 cents and EPS of 281.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 276.6, implying annual growth of 27.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 171.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 16.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 158.00 cents and EPS of 237.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 231.9, implying annual growth of -16.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 140.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
MFG MAGELLAN FINANCIAL GROUP LIMITED
Wealth Management & Investments
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Overnight Price: $63.41
Citi rates MFG as Neutral (3) -
Citi states the Magellan Financial Group's FY20 result was broadly in-line with expectations.
The core profit grew 20% year on year to $438m, mainly due to the strong growth in management fees as average FUM rose 26%, while fee margins were flat, according to the broker.
The analyst highlights better-than-expected FY21 cost guidance, mainly due to lower travel costs and the benefits of bringing forward bonus deferral payments to FY20.
The Neutral rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $67 from $66.
Target price is $67.00 Current Price is $63.41 Difference: $3.59
If MFG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $60.20, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 223.10 cents and EPS of 247.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.9, implying annual growth of 11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 242.60 cents and EPS of 269.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 274.5, implying annual growth of 13.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 247.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates MFG as Neutral (3) -
Magellan Financial Group’s FY20 net profit was 2% above the consensus but slightly below Credit Suisse’s estimate. The broker considers the result “operationally clean” with both revenues and costs mostly in-line with the broker's expectations.
The group has a number of growth initiatives and the broker expects these to attract considerable net inflows, amounting to circa $10bn, over FY21-23.
Expecting higher funds under management and a better expense profile, earnings forecasts have been upgraded for FY21-22.
Credit Suisse reaffirms its Neutral rating with the target price increasing to $60 from $55.
Target price is $60.00 Current Price is $63.41 Difference: minus $3.41 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $60.20, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 221.00 cents and EPS of 245.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.9, implying annual growth of 11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 255.00 cents and EPS of 285.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 274.5, implying annual growth of 13.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 247.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates MFG as Underweight (5) -
FY20 earnings were broadly in line with expectations while the dividend was lower. The medium-term opportunity may be broadened by the launch of cheaper core products but Morgan Stanley suggests this may increase the risk of fee compression.
The broker considers the stock expensive compared with global peers, unless it can navigate margin compression. FY21-23 estimates are raised by 8-9% to reflect lower cost guidance and stronger flows from new fund initiatives.
Morgan Stanley maintains its Underweight rating, raising the target to $48.00 from $45.70. Industry view: In-line.
Target price is $48.00 Current Price is $63.41 Difference: minus $15.41 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $60.20, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 213.70 cents and EPS of 242.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.9, implying annual growth of 11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 232.10 cents and EPS of 262.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 274.5, implying annual growth of 13.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 247.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates MFG as Hold (3) -
Magellan Financial Group delivered a strong FY20 result that was in-line with expectations, according to Morgans.
Management fees were up 25% on the previous corresponding period, while underlying profit (NPAT) was up over 20% and the dividend increased by over 16%.
The final dividend was $1.22 (including a performance fee dividend of 30.4 cents).
The analyst states the group’s bottom-up growth initiatives (leveraging its growing retail client base and balance sheet strength) could deliver significant medium-term growth in funds under management (FUM).
The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $64.05 from $61.15.
Target price is $64.05 Current Price is $63.41 Difference: $0.64
If MFG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $60.20, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 230.00 cents and EPS of 257.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.9, implying annual growth of 11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 256.00 cents and EPS of 282.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 274.5, implying annual growth of 13.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 247.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates MFG as Hold (3) -
Magellan Financial Group's FY20 result is considered by Ord Minnett to be "predictably strong", with net profit up 21% despite covid-19.
The broker has upgraded its FY21 forecast on account of higher flows generated by the global fund consolidation and lower operating costs.
The group has flagged several growth initiatives over the medium term. Considering the business fully priced, Ord Minnett retains its Hold recommendation with the target price increasing to $63.57 from $60.44.
Target price is $63.57 Current Price is $63.41 Difference: $0.16
If MFG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $60.20, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 223.40 cents and EPS of 243.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.9, implying annual growth of 11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 254.30 cents and EPS of 275.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 274.5, implying annual growth of 13.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 247.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates MFG as Neutral (3) -
FY20 results were generally in line with expectations, and the focus is on strategic growth initiatives. The company has delayed its new retirement product, pending regulatory approvals.
UBS lifts estimates by 2-3% for FY21-23, marking to market and allowing for stronger net fund flows as a result of the strategic initiatives.
Neutral maintained. Target rises to $61.25 from $56.70.
Target price is $61.25 Current Price is $63.41 Difference: minus $2.16 (current price is over target).
If MFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $60.20, suggesting downside of -5.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 224.00 cents and EPS of 218.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 242.9, implying annual growth of 11.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 222.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.3. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 244.00 cents and EPS of 273.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 274.5, implying annual growth of 13.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 247.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.3. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.97
Citi rates MTS as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
Trading conditions for the grocery businesses in general remain buoyant and the analysts have penciled in higher than usual growth numbers for the six months ahead.
Apart from elevated sales growth, Citi cites rational market conditions and earnings/dividend stability which all justify an overweight portfolio position towards the main industry stalwarts in Australia.
Metcash has been upgraded to Buy from Neutral, with a price target of $3.50.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.97 Difference: $0.53
If MTS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.18, suggesting upside of 6.4% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY21:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.7. |
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.0, implying annual growth of -2.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 12.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $6.24
Credit Suisse rates PBH as Initiation of coverage with Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse initiates coverage of Pointsbet Holdings with a Neutral rating and a target price of $6.50.
Pointsbet is looked at by the broker as a credible new entrant in the US online sports betting and online casino market.
The company has captured 5-6% market share by turnover in New Jersey, highlight the analysts who are watching keenly how the company will tackle its next major opportunity – Illinois.
Pointsbet has a competitive product with a nimble management team, comments the broker noting the company is building an online casino platform with the potential to exceed the company’s sports betting revenue.
Credit Suisse maintains its Neutral rating with a target price of $6.50.
Target price is $6.50 Current Price is $6.24 Difference: $0.26
If PBH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 21.96 cents. |
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 20.22 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $19.58
Credit Suisse rates SEK as Outperform (1) -
Seek’s FY20 results were slightly better than expected by Credit Suisse in terms of revenue and operating income. Weak performance at ANZ and Asia was offset by better results at Zhaopin.
No guidance has been provided for FY21 but management assumes billing will continue to decline in the first half before recovering in the second half. This prompts the broker to materially decrease its near term forecasts for ANZ and Asia.
Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating with the target price reducing to $23.10 from $24.
Target price is $23.10 Current Price is $19.58 Difference: $3.52
If SEK meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.06, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 90.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 33.00 cents and EPS of 29.22 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.1, implying annual growth of 76.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates SEK as Overweight (1) -
FY20 results were in line with expectations but the key to the results, Morgan Stanley notes, is a weaker outlook for FY21. Indicative operating earnings guidance of $330m is -20% below forecasts.
The job advertisement market is clearly lacking the recovery of internet peers in real estate and motor vehicles, the broker assesses.
Morgan Stanley retains its Overweight rating with a target price of $22. Industry view: Attractive.
Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.58 Difference: $2.42
If SEK meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.06, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 EPS of 38.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 90.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 49.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.1, implying annual growth of 76.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates SEK as Upgrade to Hold from Reduce (3) -
Seek has reported results in-line with guidance given in late June. However, the indicative earnings potential (not outlook) was below market expectations, according to Morgans.
The broker shows that the second half bore the full force of covid-19 lockdowns, but since April/May there has been a steady improvement in volumes and the company continues to invest regardless.
The large end markets that the company is attempting to dominate appeal to Morgans, but the broker awaits more concrete evidence on the return profile on these investments and acceleration of core business earnings.
The rating is upgraded to Hold from Reduce. The target price is increased to $17.90 from $15.55.
Target price is $17.90 Current Price is $19.58 Difference: minus $1.68 (current price is over target).
If SEK meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $21.06, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 6.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 90.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 43.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.1, implying annual growth of 76.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates SEK as Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate (3) -
Seek’s FY20 operating income was $414.9m versus $455m in FY19. Management expects the net profit in FY21 to be $20m, or $330m in EBITDA. This has led to Ord Minnett lowering its operating income estimate by -25.8% for FY21.
While management has an impressive track record of high returns on investment, the broker prefers to wait for a clearer picture of the impact of lockdowns on the employment market.
The broker is upbeat on China from FY22 onwards and believes the company’s recovery will be led by its Zhaopin division. Operating income forecasts reduced for FY21-22.
On account of lower estimates, Ord Minnett downgrades its recommendation to Hold from Accumulate with the target price decreasing to $20.15 from $24.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $20.15 Current Price is $19.58 Difference: $0.57
If SEK meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.06, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY21:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 90.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.1, implying annual growth of 76.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates SEK as Buy (1) -
Seek has provided illustrative EBITDA guidance for FY21 of $330m, well below expectations.
Lower Australasian revenue growth combined with lower volume assumptions implies FY21 volumes will be down on FY20 and the downgrade to guidance has led UBS to reduce estimates for FY21 and FY22 by -80% and -36% respectively.
The broker believes there is still a long-term opportunity and the focus should be on the potential earnings base outside of the impact of the pandemic.
However, UBS acknowledges elevated gearing is of concern, although covenant limits have been increased until June 30, 2021. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $22 from $23.
Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.58 Difference: $2.42
If SEK meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $21.06, suggesting upside of 7.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 21.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 11.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 0.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 90.6. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 31.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 38.1, implying annual growth of 76.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 25.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.27
Ord Minnett rates SXY as Accumulate (2) -
Senex Energy announced a non-cash impairment of -$52m due to lower oil price forecasts. Ord Minnett highlights the impairments are mostly related to the company's late life assets in the Cooper Basin.
The broker considers these price-driven impairments as irrelevant and finds the stock attractive at current levels.
Ord Minnett reiterates its Accumulate recommendation with a target price of $0.35.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $0.35 Current Price is $0.27 Difference: $0.08
If SXY meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 30% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.40, suggesting upside of 47.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of 160.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 45.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 2.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.1, implying annual growth of 250.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.9. |
Market Sentiment: 0.9
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SYD SYDNEY AIRPORT HOLDINGS LIMITED
Infrastructure & Utilities
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Overnight Price: $5.34
UBS rates SYD as Buy (1) -
First half results were in line with expectations. The decision to raise $2bn in equity through an entitlement offer reflects increasing uncertainty about the recovery, UBS asserts.
Following cost and capital expenditure curtailments, the broker now envisages the monthly cash burn is around -$40-50m while current travel restrictions continue.
The company will not declare any dividend in 2020 and the broker forecasts a first payment is likely to be in respect of the second half of 2021. Buy rating retained. Target is reduced to $6.10 from $7.10.
Target price is $6.10 Current Price is $5.34 Difference: $0.76
If SYD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.82, suggesting upside of 8.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 9.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -9.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 0.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 2695.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $13.78
Citi rates TCL as Sell (5) -
Citi notes the Transurban Group's FY20 result was a slight miss to consensus expectations, with weaker revenue and earnings driven largely by weaker revenues in Melbourne and North America.
The FY20 dividend of 47 cents was pre-announced and the FY21 dividend was not quantified.
Revenue and traffic have recovered sharply since the covid-19 lows, but the broker cautions on potential for a second/third wave of infections, covenant pressure for US toll roads and increasing leverage for the group.
The analyst lowers FY21 earnings (EBITDA) estimates by -10% and leaves outer years largely unchanged.
The Sell rating is maintained. The target price is decreased to $12.83 from $12.94.
Target price is $12.83 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: minus $0.95 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 36.50 cents and EPS of minus 5.20 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 102.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Citi forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 51.50 cents and EPS of 11.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 57.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates TCL as Underperform (5) -
Transurban Group's FY20 result was weak with the operating income missing both consensus and Credit Suisse forecasts.
Management remains cautiously optimistic about traffic recovery prospects and continues to see some traffic improvement in all its core markets except Melbourne.
While no dividend guidance was given for FY21, management expects it to be in line with free cash minus capital releases. This is considered prudent by the broker and it expects the company to remain conservative with respect to capital allocation until 2024.
Dividend will recover to FY19 levels in FY24, forecasts Credit Suisse.
Credit Suisse maintains its Underperform rating with the target price increasing to $12.6 from $11.7.
Target price is $12.60 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: minus $1.18 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 31.39 cents and EPS of minus 9.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 102.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 40.07 cents and EPS of 3.66 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 57.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates TCL as Equal-weight (3) -
FY20 operating earnings (EBITDA) were below Morgan Stanley's estimates. The dividend was in line. The broker finds appeal in the near-term growth prospects and the diversity of the portfolio.
Average daily traffic fell -24% in the second half. This translates to a -26% half-on-half drop in proportional operating earnings.
Coupled with the normal lag in distributions from part-owned assets, the broker envisages continued downward momentum in free cash flow in the first half of FY21.
Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating. Target is reduced to $14.88 from $15.07. Industry view: Cautious.
Target price is $14.88 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: $1.1
If TCL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 40.00 cents and EPS of 19.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 102.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 57.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgans rates TCL as Hold (3) -
FY20 average daily traffic was down -8.6% on the previous corresponding period for Transurban Group, which was below the forecast of -7% by Morgans.
The broker expects a weaker year in FY21 followed by rapid growth in earnings and cash generation through FY22-23 as traffic recovers.
The company provided no quantitative dividend guidance for FY21, but Morgans forecasts a 36 cent dividend.
The analyst only makes mild forecast changes.
The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $13.71 from $13.67.
Target price is $13.71 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If TCL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 36.00 cents and EPS of 45.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 102.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Morgans forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 59.00 cents and EPS of 63.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 57.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TCL as Accumulate (2) -
Transurban Group’s FY20 operating income missed Ord Minnett’s estimate, driven mainly by the US assets. Final distribution of 16c (unfranked) was declared which takes the total payout for the year to 47c per share.
Given large vehicles form 20% of traffic, the fact that large vehicle traffic fell by only -1.5% in the last 12 months bodes well for the group, notes the broker.
The spotlight is on the group’s acquisition pipeline which has swelled to levels not seen before. The broker expects acquisition of assets worth $5-10bn in the next 6-12 months. Free cash flow estimates have been lowered for FY21.
Ord Minnett retains its Accumulate recommendation with a target price of $16.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $16.00 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: $2.22
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of minus 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 102.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY22 EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 57.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates TCL as Neutral (3) -
Underlying free cash flow declined -36% in the six months to June and while there was some improvement in July, UBS suspects Melbourne remains a problem going forward.
Melbourne's Citylink performance will have a significant bearing on the FY21 outcome and the broker reduces operating earnings estimates by -8% and the dividend by -6% to reflect this. Neutral rating retained. Target is reduced to $14.70 from $14.85.
Target price is $14.70 Current Price is $13.78 Difference: $0.92
If TCL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $14.20, suggesting upside of 5.4% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 46.00 cents and EPS of 4.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 39.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 102.0. |
Forecast for FY22:
UBS forecasts a full year FY22 dividend of 58.00 cents and EPS of 15.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 20.8, implying annual growth of 57.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 53.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.8. |
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TLS TELSTRA CORPORATION LIMITED
Telecommunication
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Overnight Price: $3.39
Macquarie rates TLS as Outperform (1) -
Upon initial assessment of Telstra's FY20 release, Macquarie analysts comment the FY20 performance is in-line, but FY21 guidance is a disappointment.
Underpinning the disappointing outlook is management's assessment of a lower than previously indicated return on invested capital (ROIC), now expected to drop to 7% by FY23 versus 10% earlier.
Trends for the mobile division turned out weaker than expected. It seems Macquarie intends to keep its Outperform rating, while also expecting the share price to come under pressure. Price target $3.90.
Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $3.39 Difference: $0.51
If TLS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.79, suggesting upside of 21.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 11.70 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 18.0, implying annual growth of -0.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 17.4. |
Forecast for FY21:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 16.00 cents and EPS of 12.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 17.1, implying annual growth of -5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 15.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.3. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TWE TREASURY WINE ESTATES LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $11.44
Citi rates TWE as Neutral (3) -
Treasury Wine's FY20 performance contains both positives and negatives, comment Citi analysts in an initial response to today's release. Commentary about American volumes might indicate downside risk for the year ahead, in their view.
Management's focus is on restoring EBITS margins to 25%-plus, but Citi analysts remain cautious this will be struck off a smaller revenue base than consensus expects.
Citi suspects the shares are likely to be well supported by better commentary on Asia, but also likely to remain volatile given the uncertain outlook.
Target price is $10.90 Current Price is $11.44 Difference: minus $0.54 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.39, suggesting downside of -11.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Citi forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 44.10 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of -24.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Citi forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 44.60 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TWE as Lighten (4) -
The FY20 performance missed expectations at Ord Minnet, with the analyst pointing out V20 luxury/masstige intake fell -45% in Australia, raising risk for future EBITS (operational earnings).
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $10.00 Current Price is $11.44 Difference: minus $1.44 (current price is over target).
If TWE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $11.39, suggesting downside of -11.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 45.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.1, implying annual growth of -24.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 29.0. |
Forecast for FY21:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 44.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 45.4, implying annual growth of 2.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 26.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $1.41
UBS rates WHC as Buy (1) -
Whitehaven Coal has received NSW Independent Planning Commission approval to expand the Vickery project to 10mtpa. A range of secondary approvals must now be obtained to progress the expansion and UBS expects these by the end of 2020.
However, the timing of a final investment decision is likely to depend on the state of the coal markets. The broker now anticipates the company will engage in more meaningful offtake and sell-down discussions. Buy rating and $2.60 target maintained.
Target price is $2.60 Current Price is $1.41 Difference: $1.19
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 84% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.00, suggesting upside of 47.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY20:
UBS forecasts a full year FY20 dividend of 3.00 cents and EPS of 3.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 2.1, implying annual growth of -96.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 2.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 64.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
UBS forecasts a full year FY21 dividend of 4.00 cents and EPS of 7.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.6, implying annual growth of -71.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 226.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $40.38
Citi rates WOW as Neutral (3) -
Citi had gone off rating for a while but is now back with a Neutral rating and $41.50 price target.
Trading conditions for the grocery businesses in general remain buoyant and the analysts have penciled in higher than usual growth numbers for the six months ahead.
Apart from elevated sales growth, Citi cites rational market conditions and earnings/dividend stability which all justify an overweight portfolio position towards the main industry stalwarts in Australia.
Target price is $41.50 Current Price is $40.38 Difference: $1.12
If WOW meets the Citi target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $38.53, suggesting downside of -4.5% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY20:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 130.8, implying annual growth of -36.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 94.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 30.8. |
Forecast for FY21:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 143.7, implying annual growth of 9.9%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 105.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 28.1. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Today's Price Target Changes
Company | Last Price | Broker | New Target | Prev Target | Change | |
APX | Appen | $36.38 | UBS | 41.00 | 32.00 | 28.13% |
ARB | ARB Corp | $21.71 | Credit Suisse | 22.00 | 18.75 | 17.33% |
CBA | Commbank | $72.44 | Morgan Stanley | 62.00 | 63.50 | -2.36% |
UBS | 72.00 | 65.00 | 10.77% | |||
CNI | Centuria Capital Group | $1.87 | Ord Minnett | 2.00 | 1.80 | 11.11% |
UBS | 2.32 | 2.34 | -0.85% | |||
COL | Coles Group | $19.04 | Citi | 21.40 | 17.40 | 22.99% |
CPU | Computershare | $13.08 | Morgan Stanley | 15.75 | 16.00 | -1.56% |
Morgans | 14.22 | 13.90 | 2.30% | |||
DOW | Downer Edi | $4.30 | Citi | 5.32 | 4.90 | 8.57% |
UBS | 4.50 | 4.42 | 1.81% | |||
FBU | Fletcher Building | $3.07 | Morgan Stanley | 3.68 | N/A | - |
JBH | JB Hi-Fi | $46.45 | Credit Suisse | 42.71 | 34.52 | 23.73% |
MFG | Magellan Financial Group | $63.83 | Citi | 67.00 | 66.00 | 1.52% |
Credit Suisse | 60.00 | 55.00 | 9.09% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 48.00 | 45.70 | 5.03% | |||
Morgans | 64.05 | 61.15 | 4.74% | |||
Ord Minnett | 63.57 | 60.44 | 5.18% | |||
UBS | 61.25 | 56.70 | 8.02% | |||
MTS | Metcash | $2.99 | Citi | 3.50 | 3.10 | 12.90% |
MVF | Monash IVF | $0.56 | Morgan Stanley | 0.71 | 0.74 | -4.05% |
SEK | Seek Ltd | $19.57 | Credit Suisse | 23.10 | 24.00 | -3.75% |
Morgans | 17.90 | 15.55 | 15.11% | |||
Ord Minnett | 20.15 | 24.00 | -16.04% | |||
UBS | 22.00 | 23.00 | -4.35% | |||
SYD | Sydney Airport | $5.39 | UBS | 6.10 | 7.10 | -14.08% |
TCL | Transurban Group | $13.47 | Citi | 12.83 | 10.15 | 26.40% |
Credit Suisse | 12.60 | 11.70 | 7.69% | |||
Morgan Stanley | 14.88 | 15.07 | -1.26% | |||
Morgans | 13.71 | 13.67 | 0.29% | |||
UBS | 14.70 | 14.85 | -1.01% | |||
VRT | Virtus Health | $3.00 | Morgan Stanley | 3.30 | 4.30 | -23.26% |
WOW | Woolworths | $40.34 | Citi | 41.50 | N/A | - |
Summaries
AGL | AGL Energy | Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $16.99 |
ALU | Altium | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $32.39 |
AMP | AMP Ltd | Underperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.38 |
APX | Appen | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $35.96 |
ARB | ARB Corp | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $21.80 |
BSL | Bluescope Steel | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $12.37 |
CBA | Commbank | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $74.34 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $74.34 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $74.34 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $74.34 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $74.34 | ||
CNI | Centuria Capital Group | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $1.80 |
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.80 | ||
COL | Coles Group | Buy - Citi | Overnight Price $18.99 |
CPU | Computershare | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $13.22 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $13.22 | ||
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $13.22 | ||
Add - Morgans | Overnight Price $13.22 | ||
Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $13.22 | ||
DOW | Downer Edi | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $4.30 |
Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.30 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $4.30 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $4.30 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.30 | ||
EBO | EBOS Group | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $20.00 |
FBU | Fletcher Building | Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $3.13 |
JBH | JB Hi-Fi | Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $46.30 |
MFG | Magellan Financial Group | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $63.41 |
Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $63.41 | ||
Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $63.41 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $63.41 | ||
Hold - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $63.41 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $63.41 | ||
MTS | Metcash | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $2.97 |
PBH | Pointsbet Holdings | Initiation of coverage with Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $6.24 |
SEK | Seek Ltd | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $19.58 |
Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $19.58 | ||
Upgrade to Hold from Reduce - Morgans | Overnight Price $19.58 | ||
Downgrade to Hold from Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $19.58 | ||
Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $19.58 | ||
SXY | Senex Energy | Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $0.27 |
SYD | Sydney Airport | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.34 |
TCL | Transurban Group | Sell - Citi | Overnight Price $13.78 |
Underperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $13.78 | ||
Equal-weight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $13.78 | ||
Hold - Morgans | Overnight Price $13.78 | ||
Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $13.78 | ||
Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $13.78 | ||
TLS | Telstra Corp | Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $3.39 |
TWE | Treasury Wine Estates | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $11.44 |
Lighten - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $11.44 | ||
WHC | Whitehaven Coal | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $1.41 |
WOW | Woolworths | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $40.38 |
RATING SUMMARY
Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
1. Buy | 15 |
2. Accumulate | 4 |
3. Hold | 26 |
4. Reduce | 2 |
5. Sell | 6 |
Thursday 13 August 2020
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