Australian Broker Call

Morgan Stanley rates 29M as Equal-weight (3) -

Settlement of the extreme weather insurance claim at Capricorn Copper has finally occurred between 29Metals and the insurers, resulting in a final payment of $54m to the company.

This is in addition to the $61m progress payments made so far. Morgan Stanley notes the additional payment will improve the company's balance sheet. 

Net debt before this was expected to rise to $165m in FY25 from $63m in FY24.

Equal-weight. Target unchanged at 13c.

Target price is $0.13 Current Price is $0.16 Difference: minus $0.025 (current price is over target).
If 29M meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.22, suggesting upside of 58.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates AIS as Outperform (1) -

Macquarie observes 3Q25 copper and gold production for Aeris Resources at 7kt/11.9koz, respectively, which came in below consensus expectations by -10% and -11%, due to reduced volumes at Tritton and lower grades at Cracow.

The analyst notes all-in-sustaining-costs at $116.2m met expectations but were above consensus by 6%.

Management reconfirmed FY25 guidance, with copper year-to-date production at 63% of guidance at the mid-point, and the broker emphasising Tritton needs 8.3kt of copper for the fourth quarter to achieve the lower end. Gold guidance was also reiterated.

Macquarie lowers EPS estimates by -8% for FY25. Outperform rating and 28c target retained.

Target price is $0.28 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.1
If AIS meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 50.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AIS as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett notes Aeris Resources reported a weaker 3Q result with both Tritton and Cracow coming in below the broker's expectations.

Production at Tritton was -15% below forecast and Cracow -17%, due to lower grades and labour problems, the analyst explains. Unit costs at both were accordingly higher by 15% at Tritton and 23% at Cracow, against estimates.

Cash at quarter-end was $22.4m, lower than anticipated by -$14m. Management retained FY25 production guidance for both copper and gold, while the analyst adopts a more cautious tone.

Ord Minnett lowers FY25 earnings forecast by -4% and FY26 by -8%. No change to Hold rating. Target slips to 25c from 28c.

Target price is $0.25 Current Price is $0.18 Difference: $0.07
If AIS meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.29, suggesting upside of 50.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ALQ as Outperform (1) -

ALS Ltd's trading update points to underlying net profit after tax between $310–$313m, which is above Macquarie's forecast by 0.6% at the mid-point, the same as consensus.

The analyst notes the update suggests a recovery in Minerals sample flows with a rise in 2H25 volumes of 5% on the previous year and marking a turning point from 1H25 when volumes slipped by -0.5%.

Macquarie views the high gold price as supportive of the minerals business but flags risks to sustained mineral flows from uncertainty on tariffs and the macro economy.

In previous downturns, the company has shown "resilience." Life Sciences, Enviro segment continues to generate the highest share of revenue and earnings, with growth in the former of 10% in FY25 expected.

The analyst tweaks EPS estimates, rising by 1% and 3% for FY25/FY26. Target price lifts to $17.30 from $16.25 with an Outperform rating retained.

Target price is $17.30 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: $0.94
If ALQ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.75, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates ALQ as Accumulate (2) -

ALS Ltd announced FY25 net profit after tax guidance at $310m–$313m, which was marginally in excess of consensus according to Ord Minnett.

The broker notes mineral sample volumes rose 2.5% due to growth of 5.5% in 2H25 off a strong fourth quarter, while the environmental division is expected to achieve 10% organic growth in revenue. Food and pharmaceutical are under new leadership.

The company expects FY26 growth to return to mid-teens net profit after tax due to improving prospects for life sciences and commodities, positive forex changes, and lower net interest expenses.

Accumulate rating unchanged. Target price lifts to $17.25 from $16.05.

Target price is $17.25 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: $0.89
If ALQ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.75, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ALQ as Buy (1) -

UBS observes the trading update from ALS Ltd ahead of the upcoming FY25 results, with the company expected to achieve net profit after tax of between $310m–$313m, which meets both the broker's and consensus forecasts.

The broker notes there are no tariff impacts at this stage on input costs, and minerals sample volumes improved to growth of 2.5% for FY25 compared to a decline of -0.5% in 1H25, which implies a noticeable gain in 4Q25.

UBS attributes the higher levels to exploration projects associated with record gold prices.

Life sciences, environmental division is flagged at 10% organic growth for FY25, while food and pharmaceutical is in line with previous guidance.

Buy rating retained with an $18.70 target price, up from $17.50. ALS Ltd is due to report on May 27.

Target price is $18.70 Current Price is $16.36 Difference: $2.34
If ALQ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.75, suggesting upside of 4.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in March.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates AMC as Neutral (3) -

UBS highlights Amcor is due to report its 3Q25 result on May 1, and the broker expects the company to achieve earnings before interest and tax of US$1.1bn, which is in line with consensus, the broker explains.

Management is expected to retain the FY25 guidance of US72c to US76c, ex-Berry, which infers growth of 3% to 8% against the year previously.

The analyst expects investors to focus on how the merger with Berry is progressing, as it is due to complete on April 30, with the EU Commission finally giving approval.

Amcor has previously outlined EPS accretion of over 35% due to the realisable synergies. No change to UBS' Neutral rating and $16.90 target price.

Target price is $16.90 Current Price is $14.97 Difference: $1.93
If AMC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.88, suggesting upside of 11.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates AMP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett observes the fall in AMP's share price by -25% year-to-date due to the market sell-off and disappointing earnings.

The consensus expectations for management's initiatives remain "modest," the analyst states, but notes platform net flows have stabilised and some growth is anticipated from the rollout of the digital bank in FY25/FY26.

The stock trades at a major discount on price-to-earnings against the ASX200 of around -25%, and Ord Minnett believes there is valuation support for the business as it transitions to more streamlined and clean operations.

The analyst emphasises the superannuation class actions remain unresolved and pose an overhang on the company, as no provisions have been made which would require a capital "reset," Ord Minnett highlights.

Hold rating retained with a $1.52 target price.

Target price is $1.52 Current Price is $1.24 Difference: $0.28
If AMP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.43, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ASK as Buy (1) -

Citi highlights the new entrant on the Abacus Storage King share register is National Storage REIT ((NSR)) with around a 4.3% interest as at April 24.

The analyst believes multiple options become available with the stake, notably a potential trading profit if the offer was accepted or increased above NTA; the creation of a blocking shareholding; or letting National Storage become part of the dialogue with PSA and KI in any future deal changes or discussions.

There is potential for a revised deal if the PSA and KI takeover does not go ahead. Buy rated with a $1.40 target.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.46 Difference: minus $0.06 (current price is over target).
If ASK meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.47, suggesting upside of 0.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates ASX as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie views the consensus outlook for depreciation and amortisation (D&A) as understated, with the market modelling opex and capex around ASX guidance in the short term.

The analyst views the D&A consensus estimate at around $50m post tax as too conservative from FY30 onwards or circa 6% of EPS.

The broker argues there are scenarios where ASX will need to drop its medium-term payout ratio from the current guidance at 80% to 90% of underlying net profit after tax, due to no EPS growth anticipated after higher implied D&A.

Macquarie stresses the stock is trading at around a 5% premium to the three-year average price-to-earnings ratio of circa 25.3x or around a 43% premium to the ASX100.

No change to Neutral rating and $65 target price

Target price is $65.00 Current Price is $70.59 Difference: minus $5.59 (current price is over target).
If ASX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $63.34, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates AV1 as Speculative Buy (1) -

Adveritas delivered its first quarter of positive operating cash flow, reporting an inflow of $0.5m against Bell Potter's forecast of a -$0.6m outflow, while annual recurring revenue (ARR) at March 31 of $7.9m was below expectations of $9.0m.

The shortfall in ARR is seen as largely timing related, with current ARR now at $8.7m following the signing of the first agency contract, explain the analysts. The contract is valued at approximately $500k and expected to open opportunities in the eCommerce market.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Buy rating and raises the target to 14c from 12c after applying a higher valuation multiple.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.09 Difference: $0.05
If AV1 meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Neutral (3) -

Citi came away from Bapcor's strategy day with an improved outlook for the company's prospects in the medium to longer term operationally.

The analyst explains the company is seeking to break down silos, improve efficiency and rollout, but any changes are likely to take time as cultural transformations are slow moving. A new incentive structure is due to start from FY26.

Due to previous failed turnaround attempts, the broker believes investors will remain cynical, and Citi was surprised management failed to quantify the next cost-out phase.

It is likely any major cost-outs will need to be reinvested, the broker states, and the next cost-out is likely to be more challenging than the first phase. No trading update was offered.

Neutral, Target $5.64.

Target price is $5.64 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $0.74
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as No Rating (-1) -

A key positive from Bapcor's Investor Day, Morgan Stanley highlights, was a resolution to the incentive issues that hurt the gross profit outcome for the group.

The company will no longer report intersegment revenue as it provided an incentive for internal wholesale customers to procure externally to boost the division's gross margin.

Other news included roll-out target of 12 stores annually, and FY30 revenue target of 5% compounded annual growth, and EBITDA growth of over 10%.

Morgan Stanley is unable to provide a rating and target at present as it is acting as a financial advisor to Bain Capital's proposed acquisition of the company. Industry view is In-Line.

Current Price is $4.90. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett details the highlights from Bapcor's strategy day, including the optimisation of the store network, the creation of a single supply chain, a focus on customers, digitising and simplifying the business, alongside store fitness.

By 2030, the company aims to achieve compound average revenue growth rate above 5% and earnings (EBITDA) over 10%, with a lift of return on capital to 13.5% from 9.5% in FY25 by FY30, as well as an inventory ratio below 25% compared to 26.4% in FY24.

Management confirmed cost savings of $20m–$30m targeted in FY25.

No change to Hold rating and $5.30 target price.

Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $0.4
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as No Rating (-1) -

UBS notes Bapcor's investor day offered no trading update, but the broker views the company will achieve savings of $20m–$30m in FY25.

The company also outlined FY30 revenue growth targets of over 5% on a compound average growth rate and earnings (EBITDA) over 10%, with return on invested capital in excess of 13.5%.

Management flagged a commitment to Autobarn and the plan to relocate and close loss-making stores; ongoing optimisation with no cost-outs quantified but likely reinvestment in supply chains, network expansion, and people.

Bapcor is also looking to expand the East Coast network and expand the CVG range into European truck parts, the broker explains. In retail, there will be a focus on owned brands and an expansion of the Midas footprint.

The broker is under restriction with no target or rating.

Current Price is $4.90. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $5.69, suggesting upside of 12.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BIO as Buy (1) -

Biome Australia delivered another strong quarterly result, assesses Bell Potter, with adjusted earnings (EBITDA) excluding share-based payments slightly positive at approximately $0.195m, marking the fifth consecutive positive quarter.

Sales grew 40.9% year-on-year but were flat quarter-on-quarter due to seasonal factors, while the Activated Probiotics brand continues to gain traction domestically, highlights the broker.

The analysts observe an expanded ranging in TerryWhite Chemmart ((EBO)) and Priceline ((WES)), and new international wins in Canada, Ireland, the UK, and New Zealand.

The company remains on track for a maiden full-year profit in FY25, suggests the broker, supported by seasonally stronger trading and expectations of increased demand from a predicted record cold and flu season.

Bell Potter retains a Buy rating and 85c target price. The share price has fallen approximately -39% since the 1H25 result, despite the business maintaining strong momentum and delivering improving financial performance, highlights the broker.

Target price is $0.85 Current Price is $0.44 Difference: $0.41
If BIO meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 93% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates BUB as Speculative Hold (3) -

Bubs Australia reported March quarter net revenue of $23.2m, up 53% year-on-year, broadly consistent with Bell Potter's expectations, and delivered an earnings (EBITDA) loss of -$0.2m compared to -$7.8m a year ago.

US revenue grew 48% year-on-year to $10.8m and China revenue rose 185% to $5.7m, with the gross margin of 43.7% tracking slightly below the 2H forecast but partly offset by lower marketing expenditure, explains the broker.

Management reaffirmed FY25 guidance for net revenue of $102m, gross margin above 40%, and earnings breakeven. The broker trims FY25 earnings forecasts by -8% to reflect US tariffs and a related price increase.

Bell Potter retains a Speculative Hold rating and lowers the target price to 14.5c from 15.5c.

Target price is $0.14 Current Price is $0.12 Difference: $0.025
If BUB meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.16, suggesting upside of 31.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Neutral (3) -

Citi views Brambles' 3Q25 update as offering a mixed picture, with revenue growth slowing, positioning the company for a challenging 4Q comp as there was a pull-forward in volumes in the period last year, the broker explains.

To reach guidance, the analyst points to net new wins as the major factor underwriting the growth needed to achieve results. Citi also notes management is doing a commendable job managing the negative operating leverage and costs.

The broker retains a cautious stance, hence Neutral rating maintained. Target $20.15.

Target price is $20.15 Current Price is $19.83 Difference: $0.32
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.94, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BXB as Outperform (1) -

Brambles' trading update for 3Q25 revealed a narrowing of the outlook for sales in FY25 to 4%–5% growth versus 5%–6% previously, with Macquarie estimating 3.3% in constant currency terms.

Management reiterated earnings before interest and tax growth of 8%–11% and upgraded free cash flow to US$900m–US$1bn from US$850m–US$950m.

In the third quarter, American sales rose 4%, generated from a price rise of 2% and new business 2%, with US weakness offset by Canada and Latam growth. The broker notes US pallet sales rose 4%, with 3% from price rises. Conditions were impacted by bad weather and "increasing" macro uncertainty.

Macquarie lifts FY25 EPS forecast by 1.1% and lowers FY26 by -0.4%. Target price unchanged at $21.85 with an Outperform rating sustained.

Target price is $21.85 Current Price is $19.83 Difference: $2.02
If BXB meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.94, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BXB as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley assesses Brambles' 3Q25 update as softer than expected, as the sales trend pointed to a -2.1% y/y decline on an actual forex basis. 

The broker believes there's downside risk to FY25 sales guidance of 4-5% growth and EBIT guidance.

Overweight with a target price of $22. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $19.83 Difference: $2.17
If BXB meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.94, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BXB as Hold (3) -

Brambles' third quarter update was slightly weaker-than-expected by Morgans, with year-to-date constant currency sales up 3% compared to the broker’s forecast of 5%.

The geopolitical environment and changing tariff situation has weighed on consumer sentiment, noted management, while like-for-like (LFL) volumes were lower due mainly to severe winter weather in the Americas region, explains the analyst.

Management reaffirmed FY25 constant currency underlying earnings (EBIT) guidance of 8-11% growth but narrowed sales growth guidance to 4-5% from 4-6%.

Guidance for free cash flow (before dividends) was raised to US$900-1,000m from US$850-950m, largely due to reduced pooling capex following softer like-for-like volumes and improved asset efficiency, explains the broker.

Morgans cuts its target price to $19.75 from $20.50 and retains a Hold rating.

Target price is $19.75 Current Price is $19.83 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If BXB meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.94, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes Brambles reported revenue growth of 3% for the nine months ending March, suggesting to the analyst growth of only 1% in the March quarter.

This reflected a decline in like-for-like volumes of -2%, with fast-moving customers cautious on the macro outlook due to tariff uncertainty.

The company narrowed the FY25 guidance range, including sales revenue growth of 4% and underlying profit growth remaining at 10%, the analyst details.

Management is forecasting a compound average growth rate in EPS of 13% over the next three years. Ord Minnett remains Buy rated with a $24.90 target price, up from $23.80.

Target price is $24.90 Current Price is $19.83 Difference: $5.07
If BXB meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.94, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BXB as Buy (1) -

UBS notes Brambles' group sales in 3Q25 were -1% lower on volume in contrast to the 4% average growth over the preceding four quarters. The company narrowed FY25 sales guidance to 4-5%, which points to a sharp improvement in 4Q from the soft trend in the first nine months.

The broker is forecasting 3.7% sales growth on an expectation of improvement from new business volume, and lifted free cash flow estimate on lower capex and asset productivity benefits.

Buy retained. Target lifted to $23.00 from $22.80.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $19.83 Difference: $3.17
If BXB meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.94, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates DVP as Buy (1) -

Develop Global reported March quarter revenue of $50.5m for its Mining Services division, beating Bell Potter's $44.0m estimate. Development metres and ore tonnes mined at Bellevue increased by 27% and 30% quarter-on-quarter, respectively.

Commissioning at Woodlawn is progressing ahead of expectations, highlights the broker, with copper concentrate processing at 750ktpa against a nameplate of 850ktpa. First saleable concentrate shipment is expected in May to deliver initial cash flow.

The company ended the quarter with cash of $94.2m, net debt of $61.2m, and continues the sell-down process for a minority interest in Woodlawn.

Bell Potter has accelerated its Woodlawn ramp-up assumptions and revised earnings forecasts materially higher for FY25 and FY26, driven by earlier achievement of nameplate production and updated commodity prices.

No change to $4 target price or Buy rating.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $2.71 Difference: $1.29
If DVP meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 48% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Underperform (5) -

Macquarie previews the March NZ building consent statistics due out on Friday, which suggest a decline of -7% on a year earlier, broadly meeting the broker's A&NZ volume forecast of -6% for 2H25 A&NZ.

The analyst observes the 1H25 saw a stabilisation of NZ consents activity, but 2H25 has revealed a decline back to -14% on a year previously. Fletcher Building's guidance remains for a decline of -10% to -15%.

Looking at the FY25 cost-out guidance of NZ$180m-plus, Macquarie views the company will be challenged to meet earnings guidance for home with pricing pressures. The broker believes the company overearned in NZ cement and plasterboard, which are both expected to fade.

Underperform rating and NZ$1.95 target price. No change to earnings forecasts.

Current Price is $2.87. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 4.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates FDV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Frontier Digital Ventures delivered a strong March quarter, assesses Bell Potter, with group revenue up 4% year-on-year to $20m, or 23% excluding InfoCasas, and a group record earnings (EBITDA) margin of 14%.

Zameen revenue recovered 24% year-on-year to $3.1m, while group earnings of $2.8m was supported by strong margins from 360LATAM and Zameen, explain the analysts.

The company reported positive operating cash flow of $2m and free cash flow of $0.6m.

Margin expansion of 514bps year-on-year reflects operational improvements from platform investment and automation initiatives, highlights Bell Potter. It's thought this increased margin is sustainable.

The broker sees upside potential from the InfoCasas transition and improved emerging market conditions. No change to Speculative Buy rating. Target price rises to 54c from 52c.

Target price is $0.54 Current Price is $0.28 Difference: $0.255
If FDV meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 89% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Citi observes the uncertainty around tariff timing has materially affected major booking months for Flight Centre Travel, with a historical second-half skew.

The company has lowered the FY25 guidance outlook for profit before tax by circa -13% below consensus to $300m–$335m.

Management is concentrating on cost-outs in the non-customer facing areas of the business and reassessing the Student Universe, which is underperforming, the analyst details.

The company has announced a $200m buyback, expansion into Canada, and increased technology investments. Citi highlights the outlook remains uncertain into 1H26.

No change to Buy rating, as the broker believes the stock is well set up for when trading conditions settle down. Target price falls to $16.10 from $18.45.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $12.59 Difference: $3.51
If FLT meets the Citi target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.23, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FLT as Overweight (1) -

Flight Centre Travel downgraded underlying profit before tax guidance for FY25 which Morgan Stanley notes is -18% lower at the midpoint. A $200m share buyback was also announced.

The broker is not surprised at the downgrade and had lowered its estimates below the guidance this month. Like the company, the broker expects a rebound in FY26 but is uncertain how far it will help in improving margins.

Overweight. Target unchanged at $16.60.

Target price is $16.60 Current Price is $12.59 Difference: $4.01
If FLT meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.23, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FLT as Add (1) -

Flight Centre Travel has downgraded FY25 underlying profit (NPBT) guidance to $300-335m from $365-405m, reflecting political and macroeconomic pressures impacting business and consumer confidence, observes Morgans.

The broker also highlights added investment costs and underperformance in some business units.

Despite near-term uncertainty, the analysts view the up to $200m share buyback as a good use of excess capital, with management expecting stronger results in FY26 as business improvement strategies gain momentum.

Morgans retains an Add rating and lowers the target to $16.70 from $19.80, noting the group's balance sheet remains strong and a future travel rebound could significantly boost earnings.

Target price is $16.70 Current Price is $12.59 Difference: $4.11
If FLT meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.23, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FLT as Buy (1) -

A downgrade to pre-tax profit guidance by Flight Centre Travel to a range of $300-335m from the previous $365-405m was driven by a mix of cyclical, structural, and execution factors, according to Ord Minnett.

While global leisure demand remains solid but moderating, the broker notes corporate travel volumes are softening and agent remuneration pressures persist, though the Virgin/Qatar deal could shift dynamics in the group's favour.

Despite the macroeconomic and structural headwinds, the company maintains outbound travel share, highlights the analyst, and management announced a $200m buy-back, supported by a strong net cash position of around $650m.

Ord Minnett lowers the target price to $17.61 from $22.54 while retaining a Buy rating.

Target price is $17.61 Current Price is $12.59 Difference: $5.02
If FLT meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 40% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.23, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FLT as Buy (1) -

Flight Centre Travel downgraded FY25 underlying profit before tax guidance to between $300m and $335m, from prior guidance of $365m to $405m, reflecting a weaker US trading environment and a softer May/June outlook, explains UBS.

The broker notes a 1H/2H split of 37%/63% is implied for FY25, with initiatives underway to control costs via its Global Business Services division and a target to reduce capital expenditure by between -15-20% in FY26.

While a $200m share buyback is a positive, UBS highlights a likely -13% consensus earnings downgrade is needed to align with the new guidance midpoint.

UBS retains a Buy rating and a $20.00 target price.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $12.59 Difference: $7.41
If FLT meets the UBS target it will return approximately 59% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.23, suggesting upside of 43.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates FMG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

Following today's in-line March quarter operational performance by Fortescue, Citi maintains its $17.50 target and upgrades to Buy from Neutral given the recently weak share price, which has materially underformed BHP Group ((BHP)) and Rio Tinto ((RIO)).

At first glance, the broker highlights strong cost performance for the period, while price realisations for both hematite and concentrate were modestly below expectations.

The analysts explain the increase in net debt was partly driven by management completing the acquisition of Red Hawk Mining ((RHK)) for -$254m during the quarter.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $15.47 Difference: $2.03
If FMG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $17.29, suggesting upside of 5.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates GOR as Downgrade to Hold from Buy (3) -

Gold Road Resources reported March quarter gold sales of 71.2koz, in line with Bell Potter's 71.5koz forecast, with costs (AISC) at $2,658/oz, matching expectations, and the average realised gold price at $4,555/oz.

Cash and bullion rose to $203.8m, and 2025 production guidance of 325-355koz at costs (AISC) of $2,400–2,600/oz was reaffirmed, following prior disclosure of minor processing disruptions during the quarter, observe the analysts.

Given the indicative $3.05 per share offer from Gold Fields Ltd, which management rejected as undervaluing future assets like Gruyere underground and Gilmour, the broker applies a 30% premium to these assets.

Bell Potter downgrades the rating to Hold from Buy and raises the target price slightly to $3.25 from $3.20.

Target price is $3.25 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.17
If GOR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates GOR as No Rating (-1) -

Gold Road Resources' 1Q25 cost of $2,658/oz was -2% below Macquarie's forecast, though it was 47% higher than the preceding quarter.

Production was pre-reported, and the FY25 guidance of 325-355koz was retained, but the broker is forecasting at the lower end at 327koz. Cost guidance was $2,400-2,600/oz, and Macquarie is forecasting at the upper end at $2,581/oz.

After factoring in the result, the broker lifted FY25-27 EPS forecast by 3%/5%/7%, respectively.

An interesting update, the broker comments, was the company indicating the possibility of "in-specie" distribution of Northern Star Resources ((NST)) shares as the most effective way of returning value to shareholders, following the merger with De Grey Mining ((DEG)).

The broker remains on research restriction.

Current Price is $3.08. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Hold (3) -

Gold Road Resources' March quarter production of 36koz was in line with expectations, with costs (AISC) of $2,658/oz coming in -7% below the Ord Minnett's forecast due to inventory adjustments and lower sustaining spend.

Cash holdings of $187m excluding bullion were 9% ahead of the broker's forecast, while 2025 guidance was maintained for 162.5-177.5koz production at $2,400-2,600/oz costs (AISC).

Ord Minnett points out attention remains on potential M&A opportunities following the rejection of the Gold Fields’ bid, which has helped the Gold Road Resources' share price outperform peers by 17% year-to-date.

Ord Minnett lowers its 2025 earnings forecast slightly, but raises the target price to $3.35 from $3.00 as the analyst marks-to-market the company's listed investments and rolls forward the valuation multiple. Hold rating retained.

Target price is $3.35 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.27
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Gold Road Resources produced 71.2koz of gold at costs (AISC) of $2,658/oz for the March quarter, broadly in line with expectations held by UBS.

Mining rates reached record levels and the plant processed 2.26mt, though a lower grade of 1.05g/t impacted recoveries, notes the broker.

2025 production guidance for 325koz to 355koz at costs (AISC) of $2,400/oz to $2,600/oz has been maintained.

UBS highlights upside from Gruyere’s open pit and underground expansion potential, the Gilmour project, and regional exploration, while synergies from any potential merger with Gold Fields remain a focus.

The broker retains a Buy rating and a price target of $3.55.

Target price is $3.55 Current Price is $3.08 Difference: $0.47
If GOR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.38, suggesting upside of 10.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates HSN as Buy (1) -

Shaw and Partners highlights Hansen Technologies’ acquisition of key software applications of CONUTI GmbH is a perfect fit as it provides data messaging software, strengthening its position in the German market.

The purchase price is around -$13.4m and is expected to be earnings accretive. The broker lifted FY26 revenue forecast by 1% and EBITDA by 2% to align with the company's acquisition guidance.

The broker notes the stock has historically traded at 14x forward-looking cash EBITDA multiple, and expects the stock to re-rate over the coming months as cash earnings are forecast to grow 20% in FY26.

Buy, High risk. Target rises to $7.30 from $7.20.

Target price is $7.30 Current Price is $5.26 Difference: $2.04
If HSN meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.66, suggesting upside of 23.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates IMD as Neutral (3) -

Exploration activity has continued to recover gradually for Imdex, notes UBS, with March quarter drilling projects up by 4% year-on-year and active drill holes up by 1%, driven particularly by late-stage gold drilling in Western Australia.

While the recovery supports 2026 revenue growth expectations, the broker points out its near-term revenue forecast for the third quarter represents just a 1% organic lift on the prior year, and a 4% rise when factoring currency benefits.

Despite the improvement, UBS retains a Neutral rating, noting Imdex trades at a one-year forward P/E of 23x, well above its historical average, suggesting much of the exploration upswing is already priced in.

Target rises to $3.00 from $2.95.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.75 Difference: $0.25
If IMD meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.94, suggesting upside of 1.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates LTR as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses a solid quarterly result for Liontown Resources, with production and costs marginally ahead of market expectations.

Cash fell by -10% to $173m, while net debt increased to $526m, excluding lease liabilities, noted the broker. Concerns remain the balance sheet could come under greater pressure if lithium prices stay at current levels or decline further, cautions the analyst.

Morgans retains a Hold rating. The target rises to 52c from 49c.

Target price is $0.52 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: minus $0.02 (current price is over target).
If LTR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $0.62, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates LTR as Neutral (3) -

Liontown Resources' 3Q25 spodumene production, realised price and costs were in line with the broker's expectation, showing both mine and plant are ramping up well.

The broker notes the full-scale underground operations at Kathleen Valley mine are on track for 4Q of FY26.

The analyst awaits FY26 guidance and improvement in the spodumene price outlook.

Neutral. Target unchanged at 65c.

Target price is $0.65 Current Price is $0.54 Difference: $0.11
If LTR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.62, suggesting upside of 8.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Lynas Rare Earths reported March quarter NdPr production of 1,509t, missing Bell Potter's forecast by -11%, while total revenue of $123m also fell short of the $160m estimate, reflecting lower volumes and weaker prices.

Cash operating costs rose to -$94m for the quarter, while capital expenditure reached -$70m, leading to a net cash decline of -$40m to $268m, with the company also commissioning its heavy rare earth separation plant during the period, explains the broker.

The analysts highlight rising cost pressures, with unit cash costs up to $50/kg against a basket selling price of $50.5/kg, and warn margins will remain under pressure unless NdPr prices recover meaningfully.

Bell Potter maintains a Sell rating and lowers the target price to $6.25 from $6.50 on weaker earnings forecasts. The broker believes any pricing impact for the company from tariffs will likely be longer dated.

Target price is $6.25 Current Price is $8.56 Difference: minus $2.31 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.23, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates LYC as Sell (5) -

Lynas Rare Earths announced NdPr production of 1,509 REOt, a decline of -17% on the previous quarter for 3Q25, which was below Citi's estimate by -6% and -11% below consensus.

Total sales volumes fell -15% on the quarter against the earlier quarter, another miss of -30% and -19% versus the broker's and consensus forecast, respectively.

Average selling price was resilient at $50.5/kg, with the company continuing to concentrate on the highest value strategic customers, the broker explains.

The sales mix also improved, with a higher ratio of NdPr against total production. Cash and short-term deposits fell -4% to $268.9m. Management pointed to increased US project capex and the delivery of FY25 production target for 2025 of 10.5kt annually ongoing.

Citi reiterates a Sell rating and $5.50 target price.

Target price is $5.50 Current Price is $8.56 Difference: minus $3.06 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.23, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates LYC as Neutral (3) -

Macquarie had forecast a weak 3Q25 result for Lynas Rare Earths, but the outcome was even weaker than that, with production -32% below its estimate and revenue -13% lower.

Cash balance was 16% higher, but this was a result of lower capex spend. After incorporating the result, the broker cut FY25 EPS forecast by -3% and made minor revisions to the FY26 forecasts.

Target price lifted to $8.00 from $7.30 following increase in EV/EBITDA multiple to 10x from 6x as the company has traded above 10x for over 90% of the past four-year period. Neutral maintained.

Target price is $8.00 Current Price is $8.56 Difference: minus $0.56 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.23, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates LYC as Underweight (5) -

Lynas Rare Earths' 3Q25 NdPr production, REO sales and overall sales revenue fell short of Morgan Stanley's forecasts, but no changes have been triggered to the broker's EPS forecasts for FY25-26.

A small boost to average realised prices is expected from the first production from Malaysia in May, but the broker expects limited impact on revenue.

The company flagged challenging market conditions will continue through the June quarter due to global tariffs and China export controls, and is developing strategies to manage this.

Underweight. Target unchanged at $7. Industry View: In-Line.

Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $8.56 Difference: minus $1.56 (current price is over target).
If LYC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $7.23, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates LYC as Hold (3) -

Lynas Rare Earths missed consensus March quarter production expectations, although the market focus remained focused on upside from China’s REO ban, explains Ord Minnett, leading to a muted sharemarket reaction.

Management confirmed its intention to restrict production volumes to support higher pricing as ex-China demand rises, while construction commencement for the Seadrift facility has been delayed by six months.

The broker raises its target price to $8.70 from $7.80 based on maintaining a 12x times forward EV/EBITDA multiple and stronger Australian dollar REO pricing. Hold.

Target price is $8.70 Current Price is $8.56 Difference: $0.14
If LYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $7.23, suggesting downside of -15.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: -0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates MMI as Buy (1) -

Metro Mining achieved an average price of $62/wmt in 1Q25 from 184kt bauxite shipments, and Shaw and Partners now views the 6.5-7.0mt guidance for FY25 and its forecast of 6.6mt as conservative.

The broker also believes the company is well-positioned for a strong June quarter, with average price likely to exceed its $70/t forecast, given the lift in bauxite prices.

No change in forecasts made now, but an additional upside risk is the broker's $174m free cash flow forecast for FY25, which is not yet priced.

Buy, High risk. Target unchanged at 17c.

Target price is $0.17 Current Price is $0.05 Difference: $0.121
If MMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 247% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates MSV as Speculative Buy (1) -

Mitchell Services 3Q update showed some earnings slippage due to seasonal disruption and a slower rig rollout, observes Morgans, but the value proposition remains well intact, in the analyst's view.

The broker trims FY25-FY26 earnings (EBITDA) forecasts by -11% and -18%, respectively, and lowers the target to 45c from 50c, applying a more conservative valuation multiple.

FY25 will likely be a trough year as the company repositions rigs into new market segments, explains the analyst, with a stronger rebound in FY26 as higher earnings, better cash conversion, and a resumption of dividends are forecast.

The broker believes Mitchell Services continues to present strong value and remains suited for patient investors. Speculative Buy rating.

Target price is $0.45 Current Price is $0.25 Difference: $0.2
If MSV meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 80% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates MVF as Buy (1) -

Monash IVF has reported an embryo transfer error resulting in the birth of a child to the wrong patient, attributed to human error, with an independent investigation underway and findings expected in coming weeks, observes Bell Potter.

The broker highlights the highly regulated nature of Australia’s assisted reproductive industry, although incidents of this kind, while rare, have occurred both domestically and internationally.

Despite the negative share price impact, Bell Potter believes the longer-term effect on sustainable earnings will depend on the investigation outcome and how Monash IVF manages patient trust and process improvements.

FY25 earnings are not expected to be impacted, though FY26 and FY27 underlying net profit forecasts have been reduced by -13% and -23%, respectively, and the broker's discount rate applied has been lifted to -13%.

Bell Potter maintains a Buy rating and lowers the target price to $1.25 from $1.69.

Target price is $1.25 Current Price is $0.81 Difference: $0.445
If MVF meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 55% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $1.30, suggesting upside of 56.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NEM as Buy (1) -

Newmont Corporation’s March quarter 2025 results significantly exceeded market expectations, according to Ord Minnett.

First-quarter earnings (EBITDA) of $2.6bn were 11% above consensus, helped by stronger production, by-product sales, and higher realised prices, explains the broker.

Free cash flow was $1.2bn, materially ahead of the analyst's $457m forecast, and management reduced net debt to $3.2bn from $6.4bn in 2023.

Production guidance for 2025 is unchanged at 5.6moz, rising to 6.0moz by 2027. 

Ord Minnett expects further earnings growth, potential buyback increases, and a 7% free cash flow yield in 2025. The broker lifts the target price to $97.00 from $95.00 and retains a Buy rating.

Target price is $97.00 Current Price is $84.12 Difference: $12.88
If NEM meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $94.60, suggesting upside of 13.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NST as Neutral (3) -

After reviewing today's March quarter activities report for Northern Star Resources, analysts at Citi note today's downgrade to FY25 guidance is the fourth in a row.

The KCGM underground mine is yet to ramp-up to the guided 3-3.5mtpa, access to the higher-grade open pit ore has been delayed, and management is no longer reiterating its FY26 production targets, observes the broker in first impressions.

More positively, management expects cash tax savings of $750m over next five years due to the De Grey Mining ((DEG)) acquisition.

Citi still believes the Northern Star share price can trade higher as the rising gold price results in an ongoing EPS upgrade cycle. Neutral. Unchanged $20 target.

Target price is $20.00 Current Price is $20.87 Difference: minus $0.87 (current price is over target).
If NST meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $22.32, suggesting upside of 12.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.7

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Citi expects Origin Energy will report a solid March quarter update on April 30 due to elevated reliability at Eraring and higher pool prices for the quarter.

The analyst envisages the chance FY25 energy markets earnings (EBITDA) guidance is narrowed and raised at the mid-point. Citi forecasts FY25 electricity gross margin to be $36/MWh before increasing with the battery energy storage system and virtual power plant benefits, which could be more positive.

Citi also believes there are upside risks to APLNG despite the lower oil prices, with longer-dated timing on cargoes, but macro uncertainty and other challenges could affect the outlook. The broker lifts earnings forecasts for Octopus and believes Yanco Delta will be developed off balance sheet.

Target price unchanged at $11.50 and remains Buy rated.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.46 Difference: $1.04
If ORG meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $10.60, suggesting downside of -1.7% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates PNR as Downgrade to Sell from Hold (5) -

Pantoro reported March quarter gold production of 18,334oz at a cost (AISC) of $2,427/oz, missing Bell Potter's forecast of 20,505oz.

Production guidance of 23,000oz plus or minus 10% was also missed, mainly due to delays at Scotia Underground, explains the broker.

First ore was produced from the Princess Royal open pit ahead of the analysts' expectations, and cost control remained strong, with free cash flow generation lifting cash and bullion holdings to $132.4m at quarter-end.

Revised guidance for June quarter production of 23-26koz implies to Bell Potter a second FY25 downgrade, with full-year production now expected to reach a maximum of 85koz, down from 90koz previously and 100koz initially.

Bell Potter lowers the rating to Sell from Hold and cuts the target price to $2.30 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: minus $0.42 (current price is over target).
If PNR meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately minus 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PNR as Speculative Buy (1) -

Pantoro Gold's 3Q25 production of 18.3koz missed Ord Minnett's forecast due to delayed stoping at Scotia UG that pushed production into April. The broker forecasts an accelerated production of 23.8koz in 4Q.

If this is delivered, it would lead to free cash flow of $48m based on current spot gold prices and no hedging. The broker expects increased cash flow to be invested organically, resulting in mineral inventory increases at Scotia and Mainfield.

Speculative Buy. Target rises to $3.05 from $3.00 on roll-forward of the model and higher cash flows.

Target price is $3.05 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.33
If PNR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates PRU as Neutral (3) -

Citi notes Perseus Mining will go ahead with the circa -US$525m P1 Nyanzaga gold project post clarification on terms of the framework agreement with the Government of Tanzania.

Applying the broker's long-term gold price expectations of US$2,200/oz, the analyst values the company's 80% stake at US$390m with an internal rate of return of 10% inclusive of the circa US$200m acquisition price.

The net asset value lifts to $1.1bn at a gold price of US$3,300/oz. Citi also notes cash/bullion at US$801m at March 31 implies the gold miner has ample liquidity to fund Nyanzaga.

Target price slips to $3.50 from $3.60 with Neutral rating retained.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.27
If PRU meets the Citi target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.91, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PRU as Outperform (1) -

Perseus Mining released an updated Feasibility Study (FS) for the Nyanzaga Gold Project in Tanzania and announced plans to develop it via large-scale open pit vs open pit and underground mining planned by previous owners.

Pre-production capex of -US$523m was slightly higher than Macquarie's estimate of -US$500m, and life-of-mine cost of -US$1,200/oz was lower than forecast, prompting the broker to adjust its forecasts accordingly.

Average production forecast was also lower than the broker's estimate, while first gold expectation in 1Q2027 was as expected.

The updated FS resulted in a -21% cut to the broker's FY27 EPS forecast. Outperform, with target trimmed to $3.80 from $3.85.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $3.23 Difference: $0.57
If PRU meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.91, suggesting upside of 17.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PYC as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett has a Buy rating and target price of $4 on PYC Therapeutics.

The broker notes the data from the phase I/II trial of VP-001 drug was promising, especially the increase in mean retinal sensitivity at 40 weeks compared to the improvement seen in a similar trial by Beacon Therapeutics.

The broker sees potential for accelerated approval after the design and endpoints for phase II/III are discussed with the US FDA at the June 6 meeting.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $1.20 Difference: $2.8
If PYC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 233% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates QOR as Buy (1) -

The highlight of Qoria's 3Q25 update was a pipeline of $19m, which implies over $14m addition to annual recurring revenue in 4Q, Ord Minnett observes.

The result itself was largely in line, though UK performance was lower than expected and free cash missed estimates due to receipt timing, higher fixed costs and one-off expenses.

The broker expects free cash flow to accelerate in FY26 and is forecasting $14m. Buy. Target trimmed to 56c from 58c.

Target price is $0.56 Current Price is $0.36 Difference: $0.2
If QOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 56% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Shaw and Partners rates SMI as Buy (1) -

No new information in Santana Minerals' 3Q25 update, with Shaw and Partners noting the highlight of the quarter was a lift in Indicated inventory in the updated mineral resource estimate.

The company recently revised Rise and Shine mine's open pit design, and the broker expects it to reduce pre-production capex by -$50m.

Updated pre-feasibility study is due in the current quarter. Buy, High risk. Target price $1.36.

Target price is $1.36 Current Price is $0.55 Difference: $0.815
If SMI meets the Shaw and Partners target it will return approximately 150% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates STX as Speculative Buy (1) -

Strike Energy reported March quarter production of 2.34PJe and revenue of $18.6m from Walyering, broadly in line with Bell Potter's expectations. Production recovered to 25TJ/day following prior maintenance disruptions, explain the analysts.

Operating cash flow remained stable at $9.6m, while investing cash flow was $19.2m, and the company completed conditions for $60m in new debt funding, refinancing $43m of existing facilities and adding $17m in liquidity, notes the broker.

Risks remain around the West Erregulla development timeline, cautions Bell Potter, with joint venture support from Hancock Energy critical, and a reserves update anticipated mid-2025.

Bell Potter maintains a Speculative Buy rating and lowers the target to 24c from 25c.

Target price is $0.24 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.075
If STX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates STX as Neutral (3) -

Strike Energy's 3Q25 production was in line with Macquarie's forecast, but revenue of $18.6m fell short of $19.4m estimate on softer market conditions.

Construction for the South Erregulla Gas Peaking Plant has started. The broker highlights labour costs as a risk, given the project is not subject to a fixed price.

The June quarter is important, with the broker expecting details of the strategic review to be published, likely by the new CEO (candidates in the final interview stage). 

EPS forecasts for FY25-26 cut on lower price assumptions for Brent oil and Walyering gas prices.

Target price cut to 19c from 22c on increased risking on West Erregulla project. Neutral retained.

Target price is $0.19 Current Price is $0.17 Difference: $0.025
If STX meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SYA as Outperform (1) -

Sayona Mining's 3Q25 result was mixed, with production missing Macquarie's forecast by -12% on weather impact, while shipments beat by 8%.  The company maintained FY25 production guidance at 190-210t.

Factoring the result into the forecasts, resulting in modest changes to the EPS forecasts. The broker flagged an important catalyst in the near term is the merger completion with Piedmont Lithium ((PLL)) expected this quarter.

Outperform. Target unchanged at 4c.

Target price is $0.04 Current Price is $0.02 Difference: $0.02
If SYA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 100% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Bell Potter rates TLX as Buy (1) -

The US FDA has issued a Complete Response Letter (CRL) for Telix Pharmaceuticals’ Pixclara (CDx101), and did not approve the new drug application (NDA), observes Bell Potter.

A lack of quantitative consistency in the data sets was cited, though no safety or Chemistry, Manufacturing, and Controls (CMC) issues were identified, highlights the broker.

Management will request a hearing to review the decision, with potential next steps including re-analysis of existing data or submission of additional retrospective data, and a registration delay of up to 12 months is expected.

Bell Potter views the outcome as a setback, though a clear remediation path is available given prior extensive pre-NDA discussions. It's felt there are no implications for the upcoming Zircaix registration.

The broker retains a Buy rating and lowers the target price to $34.00 from $36.00.

Target price is $34.00 Current Price is $26.68 Difference: $7.32
If TLX meets the Bell Potter target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates TLX as Buy (1) -

UBS highlights the US FDA's response letter for Telix Pharmaceuticals' Pixclara application did not show any concerns on product safety but a need to demonstrate consistency across datasets submitted.

The company will request a formal hearing to better understand the reasoning behind the decision to request additional evidence, and remains confident in the drug's utility.

The broker believes the commercial opportunity is delayed, not derailed.

Buy. Target price $36.

Target price is $36.00 Current Price is $26.68 Difference: $9.32
If TLX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 35% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates WDS as Neutral (3) -

Woodside Energy has announced the final investment decision on Louisiana's LNG 16.5mtpa development, with net capex reported to be -US$11.8bn, around US$2bn higher than Citi's expectations.

The broker believes the difference can be explained by capex at US$960/tonne at the upper end of the range and higher owner's costs and contingency costs, including "allowances for tariffs and business unit costs."

Woodside expects an internal rate of return of over 13% with a seven-year payback period. Management also indicated it was in further discussions with partners to sell down both HoldCo and InfraCo, Citi notes. More details are expected in the conference call.

Neutral, Target $21.50.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $20.36 Difference: $1.14
If WDS meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $25.47, suggesting upside of 23.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY25:

Forecast for FY26:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources