Australian Broker Call
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December 13, 2017
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COMPANIES DISCUSSED IN THIS ISSUE
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The number next to the symbol represents the number of brokers covering it for this report -(if more than 1)
Last Updated: 11:42 AM
Your daily news report on the latest recommendation, valuation, forecast and opinion changes.
This report includes concise but limited reviews of research recently published by Stockbrokers, which should be considered as information concerning likely market behaviour rather than advice on the securities mentioned. Do not act on the contents of this Report without first reading the important information included at the end.
For more info about the different terms used by stockbrokers, as well as the different methodologies behind similar sounding ratings, download our guide HERE
Today's Upgrades and Downgrades
| AHY - | ASALEO CARE | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral | Citi |
| FMG - | FORTESCUE | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
| RFG - | RETAIL FOOD GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell | UBS |
| TOX - | TOX FREE SOLUTIONS | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy | UBS |
| WHC - | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral | UBS |
AHY ASALEO CARE LIMITED
Household & Personal Products
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Overnight Price: $1.45
Citi rates AHY as Downgrade to Sell from Neutral (5) -
The company has downgraded FY17 underlying operating earnings guidance, expecting a -4.7% decline at the mid point of the range.
Citi notes the company is losing share in feminine hygiene even though other categories are performing strongly. The broker downgrades to Sell from Neutral. Target is reduced to $1.35 from $1.60.
Target price is $1.35 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If AHY meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 10.30 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates AHY as Neutral (3) -
The effect of competitor discounting has been worse than modelled although Credit Suisse acknowledges the signs were there for a miss on 2017 guidance. The company has announced normalised operating earnings will be $124-125m.
The broker notes margin assumptions are the key to valuation and these peaked in 2015 at around 46%. With rising pulp costs the broker models 40% in 2018. Each 100 basis points of permanent margin erosion lowers valuation by $0.10 a share.
Credit Suisse retains a Neutral rating and reduces the target to $1.45 from $1.55.
Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0
If AHY meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 9.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 10.00 cents and EPS of 9.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates AHY as Neutral (3) -
Asaleo has issued a profit warning, downgrading 2017 guidance to $70-75m from $85-95m. Competition in Feminine Care is to blame, forcing Asaleo to exit fixed everyday pricing deals with supermarkets. The exit should provide for a return to growth, the broker suggests.
The broker has nevertheless downgraded forecasts, noting rising pulp prices remain a headwind in 2018. Earnings risk remains to the downside. Neutral retained, target falls to $1.45 from $1.55.
Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.45 Difference: $0
If AHY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $1.42, suggesting downside of -2.3% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 9.50 cents and EPS of 10.90 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 10.5, implying annual growth of -8.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 8.60 cents and EPS of 9.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.9, implying annual growth of -5.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.6. |
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
AIZ AIR NEW ZEALAND LIMITED
Transportation & Logistics
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Overnight Price: $2.97
UBS rates AIZ as Neutral (3) -
Despite more positive inbound Chinese tourism and moderating competition, UBS believes earnings visibility has deteriorated following the sharp lift in jet fuel in the last three months.
The broker suspects stronger passenger yields across the peak season will be required to avoid earnings downgrades. Neutral rating and NZ$3.25 target maintained.
Current Price is $2.97. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is N/A
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.75 cents and EPS of 36.79 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 32.6, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 21.69 cents and EPS of 39.14 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.9, implying annual growth of -2.1%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.3. |
This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $28.93
Citi rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -
ANZ has completed the sale of its life insurance business to Zurich for $2.85bn. Citi considers the price on the "light" side but acknowledges the lack of success in divesting wealth management in a single transaction may have affected the price.
Citi calculates the anticipated capital return is becoming clearer, and larger in size, and this transaction adds another $2.5bn to $5.0bn of capital returns already in the forecasts. Neutral rating and $30 target maintained.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $28.93 Difference: $1.07
If ANZ meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.10, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 222.80 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.9, implying annual growth of 6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Citi forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 222.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Credit Suisse rates ANZ as No Rating (-1) -
ANZ has divested its Australian life insurance business to Zürich. The impact is expected to be broadly neutral if the capital release is returned to shareholders.
Credit Suisse is restricted on providing a rating and target.
Current Price is $28.93. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $30.10, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 237.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.9, implying annual growth of 6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 164.00 cents and EPS of 244.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Deutsche Bank rates ANZ as Hold (3) -
Now that ANZ has agreed to sell its life insurance operations to Zurich for 1x embedded value (a little less than the multiple CommBank ((CBA)) achieved, point out the analysts), Deutsche Bank considers the bank's exit from wealth management as largely complete.
The overall impact on financial metrics remains rather benign. Deutsche Bank analysts highlight ANZ's CET1 ratio benefits by circa 65bps. They add this further raises the importance of capital management initiatives over the next two years.
Minor adjustments have been made to forecasts. Target price loses 50c to $30. Hold rating retained.
Target price is $30.00 Current Price is $28.93 Difference: $1.07
If ANZ meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.10, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 249.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.9, implying annual growth of 6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Deutsche Bank forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 165.00 cents and EPS of 239.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates ANZ as Outperform (1) -
ANZ has divested of its life insurance business at a price the broker considers reasonable. The sale should prove around 1% accretive to earnings and will increase return on equity assuming ANZ uses the funds to buy back stock.
All up it's incrementally positive and the broker retains Outperform. Target falls to $30.50 from $31.50 on sum-of-the-parts valuation.
Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $28.93 Difference: $1.57
If ANZ meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.10, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 161.00 cents and EPS of 224.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.9, implying annual growth of 6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 231.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates ANZ as Accumulate (2) -
ANZ will sell its Australian life insurance business to Zurich Financial for $2.85bn. Ord Minnett considers the sale process successful from a financial perspective.
It also moves the bank out of an area where it lacked competitive advantage, while further increasing the buyback capacity.
Accumulate recommendation and target reduced to $31.20 from $31.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $31.20 Current Price is $28.93 Difference: $2.27
If ANZ meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.10, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 163.00 cents and EPS of 253.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.9, implying annual growth of 6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 243.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates ANZ as Neutral (3) -
ANZ has announced the sale of its life insurance business to Zurich Financial for $2.85bn. The bank will retain its wealth business in NZ, lenders mortgage insurance and distribution of general insurance and financial planning.
The bank will book a loss on the sale of around -$520m, including $75m in separation costs. UBS considers the re-balancing of the portfolio prudent but questions where it leaves the bank's strategy for the medium term.
Neutral and $30.50 target retained.
Target price is $30.50 Current Price is $28.93 Difference: $1.57
If ANZ meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.10, suggesting upside of 4.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in September.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 160.00 cents and EPS of 228.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 233.9, implying annual growth of 6.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 160.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 EPS of 233.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 237.1, implying annual growth of 1.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 162.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.2. |
Market Sentiment: 0.2
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $2.31
UBS rates AWC as Sell (5) -
As part of a broader update on commodities' outlook for 2018, UBS has taken up the global discussion whether a paradigm shift is happening for bauxite, alumina and aluminium due to a change in policy focus inside China?
For now, the analysts stick to the view the good times for the sector will prove unsustainable. UBS is very much Overweight the sector, attracted by higher-for-longer elevated price levels and prospects of plenty of excess cash, much of which should find its way into shareholders' pockets.
Earnings have lifted on the back of higher price forecasts. Target price gains 10c to $1.85, but Sell rating retained.
Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $2.31 Difference: minus $0.46 (current price is over target).
If AWC meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $2.24, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 15.70 cents and EPS of 17.01 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.5, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 14.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 14.0. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.93 cents and EPS of 19.63 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.7, implying annual growth of 1.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 7.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $27.75
Credit Suisse rates BHP as Neutral (3) -
Credit Suisse revises seaborne iron ore price forecasts and takes a more positive outlook on China and ex-China steel output. The new price deck for iron ore and oil & gas drives a net 12% improvement in FY18 and 18% in FY19.
The broker retains a Neutral rating and raises the target $27.00 from $26.50.
Target price is $27.00 Current Price is $27.75 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If BHP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $30.67, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 96.25 cents and EPS of 247.29 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 76.87 cents and EPS of 194.95 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 175.2, implying annual growth of -14.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates BHP as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley updates forecasts for a revised commodity deck and retains a relative preference for BHP over Rio Tinto ((RIO)). Forecasts remain bearishly tilted, with average downside for 2018 estimates of -9% versus spot prices.
Overweight rating, Attractive sector view retained. Target is raised to $34.25 from $33.50.
Target price is $34.25 Current Price is $27.75 Difference: $6.5
If BHP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.67, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 121.68 cents and EPS of 198.88 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 81.28 cents and EPS of 123.23 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 175.2, implying annual growth of -14.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates BHP as Buy (1) -
As part of a broader update on commodities' outlook for 2018, UBS has reiterated its preference for BHP in the commodities sector. Price target has lifted to $31.50 from $30.
UBS is very much Overweight the sector, attracted by higher-for-longer elevated price levels and prospects of plenty of excess cash, much of which should find its way into shareholders' pockets.
Target price is $31.50 Current Price is $27.75 Difference: $3.75
If BHP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $30.67, suggesting upside of 10.5% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 151.77 cents and EPS of 232.89 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 204.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 116.2, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 126.91 cents and EPS of 213.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 175.2, implying annual growth of -14.2%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 101.8, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 15.8. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
DHG DOMAIN HOLDINGS AUSTRALIA LIMITED
Real Estate
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Overnight Price: $3.47
UBS rates DHG as Initiation of coverage with Sell (5) -
UBS initiates coverage with a Sell rating on valuation grounds with a $3.20 target.
The broker notes regulatory changes are being considered in Victoria, which could result in tighter restrictions, but Domain's plan to acquire the other 50% of Review Property should alleviate any issues.
Other states are not expected to consider regulatory changes.
Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $3.47 Difference: minus $0.27 (current price is over target).
If DHG meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $3.45, suggesting downside of -0.6% (ex-dividends)
Forecast for FY17:
Current consensus EPS estimate is 8.0, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 43.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 8.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 9.2, implying annual growth of 15.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 3.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.1%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 37.7. |
Market Sentiment: -0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.78
Credit Suisse rates FMG as Outperform (1) -
Credit Suisse incorporates new iron ore forecasts and prolongs the timing for the return to a long-term 85% price realisation for the company's blend of products. Supply-side reform in China has had a profound impact on lower-grade pricing.
For those with a longer-term view the broker believes there is solid valuation support. Outperform rating. Target is reduced to $5.75 from $6.10.
Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.97
If FMG meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 40.59 cents and EPS of 62.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 26.57 cents and EPS of 40.73 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.1, implying annual growth of -10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
UBS rates FMG as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
As part of a broader update on commodities' outlook for 2018, UBS has upgraded Fortescue to Buy from Neutral. The price target gains 1% to $5.30 but the broker's Net Present Value (NPV) dives by -17% to $5.30.
The upgrade has been inspired by "value", explain the analysts. UBS is very much Overweight the sector, attracted by higher-for-longer elevated price levels and prospects of plenty of excess cash, much of which should find its way into shareholders' pockets.
Target price is $5.30 Current Price is $4.78 Difference: $0.52
If FMG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.43, suggesting upside of 13.7% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 28.00 cents and EPS of 53.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 56.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 31.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 8.5. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 39.25 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 50.1, implying annual growth of -10.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 28.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.5. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.4
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
GXY GALAXY RESOURCES LIMITED
Rare Earth & Minerals
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Overnight Price: $3.42
UBS rates GXY as Neutral (3) -
As part of a broader update on commodities' outlook for 2018, UBS has declared that 2018 could be a transformational event for Galaxy Resources, with the emerging lithium producer now poised to advance its international growth options.
The broker's price target has lifted to $3.60 from $3.20. Neutral rating retained.
UBS is very much Overweight the sector, attracted by higher-for-longer elevated price levels and prospects of plenty of excess cash, much of which should find its way into shareholders' pockets.
Target price is $3.60 Current Price is $3.42 Difference: $0.18
If GXY meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.93, suggesting upside of 14.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 7.3, implying annual growth of -82.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 46.8. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 24.8, implying annual growth of 239.7%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 13.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $9.44
UBS rates ILU as Buy (1) -
Zircon and rutile prices are expected to increase into 2018. UBS believes the momentum for mineral sands products is only just beginning. Iluka therefore remains one of its top picks in the commodities space.
UBS is very much Overweight the sector, attracted by higher-for-longer elevated price levels and prospects of plenty of excess cash, much of which should find its way into shareholders' pockets.
Price target has lost 50c to $10.50. Buy rating remains in place.
Target price is $10.50 Current Price is $9.44 Difference: $1.06
If ILU meets the UBS target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.44, suggesting upside of 0.0% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 17.00 cents and EPS of 24.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 19.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 16.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 49.4. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 12.00 cents and EPS of 48.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 51.3, implying annual growth of 168.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 1.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 18.4. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $0.41
UBS rates MGX as Neutral (3) -
As part of a broader update on commodities' outlook for 2018, UBS has reinstated the 2c annual payout to shareholders as earnings estimates lift on the back of higher price forecasts. Target gains 2c to 42c. Neutral rating retained.
UBS is very much Overweight the sector, attracted by higher-for-longer elevated price levels and prospects of plenty of excess cash, much of which should find its way into shareholders' pockets.
Target price is $0.42 Current Price is $0.41 Difference: $0.01
If MGX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $0.45, suggesting upside of 8.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is N/A, implying annual growth of -100.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 2.00 cents and EPS of 1.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 0.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 1.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 410.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $5.73
UBS rates ORE as Buy (1) -
As part of a broader update on commodities' outlook for 2018, UBS has lifted price forecasts for lithium and this has pushed up earnings estimates. Rating retained as Buy. Price target remains unchanged at $7.
In general terms, UBS is very much Overweight the sector, attracted by higher-for-longer elevated price levels and prospects of plenty of excess cash, much of which should find its way into shareholders' pockets.
Target price is $7.00 Current Price is $5.73 Difference: $1.27
If ORE meets the UBS target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $5.55, suggesting downside of -3.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 16.8, implying annual growth of 663.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 34.1. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 28.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 26.3, implying annual growth of 56.5%. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 21.8. |
Market Sentiment: 0.3
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
RFG RETAIL FOOD GROUP LIMITED
Food, Beverages & Tobacco
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Overnight Price: $3.14
UBS rates RFG as Upgrade to Neutral from Sell (3) -
The company is conducting a business-wide review to better ensure a sustainable future. UBS reduces long-term growth forecasts to account for the risk of increased franchisee support.
UBS reduces its nominal terminal growth rate estimate for RFG to 1% from 3%.
However, given weakness in the share price the broker upgrades to Neutral from Sell. Target is reduced to $3.15 from $4.55.
Target price is $3.15 Current Price is $3.14 Difference: $0.01
If RFG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 41.80 cents. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 20.00 cents and EPS of 41.90 cents. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $70.23
UBS rates RIO as Buy (1) -
As part of a broader update on commodities' outlook for 2018, UBS has reiterated its sector preference for BHP ((BHP)) over Rio Tinto. Price target has lost 50c to $79.
UBS is very much Overweight the sector, attracted by higher-for-longer elevated price levels and prospects of plenty of excess cash, much of which should find its way into shareholders' pockets.
Target price is $79.00 Current Price is $70.23 Difference: $8.77
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $77.31, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 379.43 cents and EPS of 650.27 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 622.4, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 369.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 348.03 cents and EPS of 583.54 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 564.6, implying annual growth of -9.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 326.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.8
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $3.19
UBS rates S32 as Neutral (3) -
While 2017 proved rather disappointing for South32, UBS predicts 2018 might just become a transformative year for the ex-BHP ((BHP)) spin off. Earnings estimates have been lifted on the back of a broader review of commodity prices, mostly resulting in higher forecasts.
UBS is very much Overweight the sector, attracted by higher-for-longer elevated price levels and prospects of plenty of excess cash, much of which should find its way into shareholders' pockets. Neutral rating retained while the target moves to $3.45 from $3.25.
Target price is $3.45 Current Price is $3.19 Difference: $0.26
If S32 meets the UBS target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.27, suggesting upside of 2.6% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 14.39 cents and EPS of 31.40 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 27.1, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.2%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 11.8. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 18.32 cents and EPS of 36.64 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 25.8, implying annual growth of -4.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.9, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.4. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
SYR SYRAH RESOURCES LIMITED
Rare Earth & Minerals
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Overnight Price: $3.96
UBS rates SYR as Buy (1) -
As part of a broader update on commodities' outlook for 2018, UBS has increased price forecasts for graphite and this has had a positive impact on its estimates and view for Syrah Resources.
Price target improves to $4.61 from $4.10. The main risk, as UBS sees it, lies within the balance sheet and cost draw down before the company generates positive free cash flow.
In general terms, UBS is very much Overweight the sector, attracted by higher-for-longer elevated price levels and prospects of plenty of excess cash, much of which should find its way into shareholders' pockets. Buy rating retained.
Target price is $4.61 Current Price is $3.96 Difference: $0.65
If SYR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $4.56, suggesting upside of 15.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
UBS forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of minus 6.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is -10.3, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is N/A. |
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 0.00 cents and EPS of 5.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 3.9, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is N/A, implying a prospective dividend yield of N/A. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 101.5. |
Market Sentiment: 0.6
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $12.28
Credit Suisse rates TCL as Outperform (1) -
The company has announced contractual close for the West Gate Tunnel. Credit Suisse estimates a 12.0% return for the project and believes the company has negotiated a highly attractive investment opportunity with the Victorian government.
The broker also believes there is significant value in West Connex but finds it harder to demonstrate value from a competitive bid process.
Outperform rating retained. Target is raised to $13.20 from $13.00.
Target price is $13.20 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: $0.92
If TCL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 16.07 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 103.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 62.00 cents and EPS of 28.21 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 30.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates TCL as No Rating (-1) -
Transurban has announced financial closure on the Westgate Tunnel deal. Timing is over five years with first traffic expected in 2023.
As the broker is advising it is currently restricted from making a recommendation.
Current Price is $12.28. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 53.50 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 103.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 60.00 cents and EPS of 62.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 30.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates TCL as Buy (1) -
Transurban has reached contractual close with the Victorian government to build and operate the West Gate Tunnel until 2045.
Ord Minnett now includes this project in its numbers, which adds $1.61 per share to valuation, offset by the dilutive impact of higher corporate debt and the equity raising.
The company will source a $1.9bn underwritten accelerated renounceable offer and a $1.65bn corporate syndicated bank facility.
Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $14.35 from $13.50.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $14.35 Current Price is $12.28 Difference: $2.07
If TCL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $12.92, suggesting upside of 5.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 56.00 cents and EPS of 18.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 23.8, implying annual growth of 103.4%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 56.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.6%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 51.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 61.00 cents and EPS of 22.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 31.0, implying annual growth of 30.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 61.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 5.0%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 39.6. |
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
TOX TOX FREE SOLUTIONS LIMITED
Industrial Sector Contractors & Engineers
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Overnight Price: $3.41
UBS rates TOX as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -
UBS downgrades to Neutral from Buy as the stock is trading largely in line with valuation. Target is raised to $3.50 from $2.85.
The broker believes Cleanaway's bid goes a long way to closing the valuation gap and peers may not be able to extract the same synergies, or be too heavily geared, to make a counter bid.
Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $3.41 Difference: $0.09
If TOX meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $2.86, suggesting downside of -16.1% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 13.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.8, implying annual growth of 80.3%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.8%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 26.6. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 9.00 cents and EPS of 14.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 13.8, implying annual growth of 7.8%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 9.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 2.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 24.7. |
Market Sentiment: 0.0
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
WFD WESTFIELD CORPORATION
Infra & Property Developers
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Overnight Price: $9.74
Citi rates WFD as No Rating (-1) -
Citi analysts suggest shareholders in Unibail-Rodamco are likely to welcome the deal that sees the group acquire Westfield, potentially "the best in the business". But what exactly to make of the fact the Lowys are happy to give up ownership without control premium?
Citi analysts suggest this is about realising value that might otherwise have been more difficult to achieve. They note the Lowy family will be partially paid in shares.
The acquisition price agreed upon represents an 18% premium to the prior close, point out the analysts.
Current Price is $9.74. Target price not assessed.
Current consensus price target is $9.26, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Citi forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 33.68 cents and EPS of 44.77 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Citi forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.33 cents and EPS of 45.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.3, implying annual growth of 5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Macquarie rates WFD as Outperform (1) -
Unibail-Rodamco has entered into a full cash/scrip takeover agreement with Westfield at what equates to $10.01, the broker calculates, or around an 18% premium. The broker has been anticipating this result for some time.
That said, an attractive near term NTA growth profile and forecast above sector earnings could result in further competitive interest and a higher bid, the broker suggests. Outperform retained. Target rises to $10.01 from $9.59.
Target price is $10.01 Current Price is $9.74 Difference: $0.27
If WFD meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.26, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 33.41 cents and EPS of 40.49 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Macquarie forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.07 cents and EPS of 42.32 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.3, implying annual growth of 5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Morgan Stanley rates WFD as Underweight (5) -
Unibail-Rodamco has an agreement to acquire Westfield for US$24.7bn. The part scrip part cash offer values each WFD security at US$7.55, or $10.01 which Morgan Stanley calculates is an 18% premium to the company's undistributed share price.
The board has unanimously recommended the transaction in the absence of a superior proposal. Morgan Stanley remains cautious on the structural headwinds but acknowledges M&A provides support for retail REITs globally.
Target price is $7.40. Industry view is Cautious. Underweight retained.
Target price is $7.40 Current Price is $9.74 Difference: minus $2.34 (current price is over target).
If WFD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Current consensus price target is $9.26, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 33.36 cents and EPS of 40.69 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 33.63 cents and EPS of 42.52 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.3, implying annual growth of 5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Ord Minnett rates WFD as Accumulate (2) -
Unibail-Rodamco will acquire Westfield for $10.01 a share, an 18% premium to the current share price, with a combination of cash and scrip. The offer has been unanimously recommended by the board.
Ord Minnett is "somewhat saddened" at the prospect of losing a great Australian company, but has suspected for some time the implied capitalisation rate was too high for Westfield, which has among the best retail portfolios globally.
Accumulate rating and $10.60 target maintained.
This stock is not covered in-house by Ord Minnett. Instead, the broker whitelabels research by JP Morgan.
Target price is $10.60 Current Price is $9.74 Difference: $0.86
If WFD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $9.26, suggesting downside of -4.9% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 34.33 cents and EPS of 40.93 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.4%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 23.1. |
Forecast for FY18:
Ord Minnett forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 34.07 cents and EPS of 44.55 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 44.3, implying annual growth of 5.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 33.7, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.5%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 22.0. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $4.14
UBS rates WHC as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -
As part of a broader update on commodities' outlook for 2018, UBS has upgraded Whitehaven Coal to Buy from Neutral. The price target gains 25% to $4.50.
The upgrade has been inspired by "value", explain the analysts. UBS is very much Overweight the sector, attracted by higher-for-longer elevated price levels and prospects of plenty of excess cash, much of which should find its way into shareholders' pockets.
Whitehaven will be swimming in cash next year predict the analysts.
Target price is $4.50 Current Price is $4.14 Difference: $0.36
If WHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $3.59, suggesting downside of -13.2% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in June.
Forecast for FY18:
UBS forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 26.00 cents and EPS of 53.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 42.7, implying annual growth of 3.6%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 19.4, implying a prospective dividend yield of 4.7%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 9.7. |
Forecast for FY19:
UBS forecasts a full year FY19 dividend of 25.00 cents and EPS of 52.00 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 34.6, implying annual growth of -19.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 13.6, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.3%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 12.0. |
Market Sentiment: 0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Overnight Price: $32.13
Morgan Stanley rates WPL as Overweight (1) -
Morgan Stanley observes Woodside's equity is slowing re-rating. Production, earnings and the dividend yield are expected to grow in the next two years.
Meanwhile, industry interest in Senegal is increasing and spot LNG prices are defying bearish forecasts.
Target is $35.55. Overweight rating and In-Line industry view retained.
Target price is $35.55 Current Price is $32.13 Difference: $3.42
If WPL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
Current consensus price target is $29.95, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)
The company's fiscal year ends in December.
Forecast for FY17:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY17 dividend of 116.45 cents and EPS of 143.92 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 158.2, implying annual growth of N/A. Current consensus DPS estimate is 125.0, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 20.3. |
Forecast for FY18:
Morgan Stanley forecasts a full year FY18 dividend of 132.15 cents and EPS of 164.86 cents. How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections? Current consensus EPS estimate is 163.0, implying annual growth of 3.0%. Current consensus DPS estimate is 126.5, implying a prospective dividend yield of 3.9%. Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 19.7. |
This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.
Market Sentiment: -0.1
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources
Summaries
| AHY | ASALEO CARE | Downgrade to Sell from Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $1.45 |
| Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $1.45 | ||
| Neutral - Macquarie | Overnight Price $1.45 | ||
| AIZ | AIR NEW ZEALAND | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $2.97 |
| ANZ | ANZ BANKING GROUP | Neutral - Citi | Overnight Price $28.93 |
| No Rating - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $28.93 | ||
| Hold - Deutsche Bank | Overnight Price $28.93 | ||
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $28.93 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $28.93 | ||
| Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $28.93 | ||
| AWC | ALUMINA | Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $2.31 |
| BHP | BHP BILLITON | Neutral - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $27.75 |
| Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $27.75 | ||
| Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $27.75 | ||
| DHG | DOMAIN HOLDINGS | Initiation of coverage with Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $3.47 |
| FMG | FORTESCUE | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $4.78 |
| Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.78 | ||
| GXY | GALAXY RESOURCES | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.42 |
| ILU | ILUKA RESOURCES | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $9.44 |
| MGX | MOUNT GIBSON IRON | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $0.41 |
| ORE | OROCOBRE | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $5.73 |
| RFG | RETAIL FOOD GROUP | Upgrade to Neutral from Sell - UBS | Overnight Price $3.14 |
| RIO | RIO TINTO | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $70.23 |
| S32 | SOUTH32 | Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $3.19 |
| SYR | SYRAH RESOURCES | Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.96 |
| TCL | TRANSURBAN GROUP | Outperform - Credit Suisse | Overnight Price $12.28 |
| No Rating - Macquarie | Overnight Price $12.28 | ||
| Buy - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $12.28 | ||
| TOX | TOX FREE SOLUTIONS | Downgrade to Neutral from Buy - UBS | Overnight Price $3.41 |
| WFD | WESTFIELD CORP | No Rating - Citi | Overnight Price $9.74 |
| Outperform - Macquarie | Overnight Price $9.74 | ||
| Underweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $9.74 | ||
| Accumulate - Ord Minnett | Overnight Price $9.74 | ||
| WHC | WHITEHAVEN COAL | Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - UBS | Overnight Price $4.14 |
| WPL | WOODSIDE PETROLEUM | Overweight - Morgan Stanley | Overnight Price $32.13 |
RATING SUMMARY
| Rating | No. Of Recommendations |
| 1. Buy | 14 |
| 2. Accumulate | 2 |
| 3. Hold | 12 |
| 5. Sell | 4 |
Wednesday 13 December 2017
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