Australian Broker Call

Morgans rates ADI as Add (1) -

APN Industria REIT reported a rise in first half funds from operations (FFO), driven by new acquisitions during the period, explains Morgans, while rent collections remain strong at 99.3%.

Management re-iterated FY21 guidance comprising FFO of 19.7-19.9c and DPS guidance of 17.3c, which represents an attractive distribution yield, notes the analyst.

The Add rating and $3.17 target are maintained.

Target price is $3.17 Current Price is $2.83 Difference: $0.34
If ADI meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates AHY as Neutral (3) -

Asaleo Care reported a FY20 underlying earnings (EBITDA) of $87.2 million, up on the pre-announcement guidance range of $84m to $87m. Net profit (NPAT) increased by 46.2% to $32.3m, and the company reduced its net debt, down $94.9m from $139.2m.

Asaleo announced it has received a revised proposal from Essity to acquire the shares at $1.40 in cash and a dividend of 5 cents, which is a 15% improvement in the proposal, and one that has support of the Asaleo Board.

Given there are still some uncertainties about the demand outlook and competitive environment, Citi expects this deal to proceed.

Broadly in-line with Citi ($92m), Asaleo reiterated its expected $90-94m in earnings (EBITDA) for FY21, and expects the benefits of COVID-19 impacts unwinding, acquisitions and organic growth to more than offset in $8 million headwind from pulp and currency rate movements.

Citi notes that with freight cost headwinds uncertain, and if spot freight rates persist, there is downside risk to earnings.

The Neutral rating and $1.40 target are maintained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.43 Difference: minus $0.03 (current price is over target).
If AHY meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $1.33, suggesting downside of -6.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates AND as Initiation of coverage with Add (1) -

Morgans initiates coverage on Ansarada Group with an Add rating and $1.55 target price.

The company is a SaaS global provider of cloud-based AI-powered virtual data rooms and material information platforms for secure end-to-end document and process management. 

The company’s portfolio consists of Deals (virtual data rooms for M&A, capital raisings etc) and Governance (compliance and audits). Additionally, their is  Board (secure digital board management) and Tenders (governance and probity for high value events).

Three key benefits for customers are risk management, efficiency and accurate decision making.

The broker highlights directors, founders and senior management own around 20% of stock, providing meaningful shareholder alignment.

Target price is $1.55 Current Price is $1.40 Difference: $0.15
If AND meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Bapcor delivered a 1H21 net profit of $70.1m, 3% ahead of Citi and consensus estimates.

Citi observes that while Bapcor’s sales have grown from consumer mobility changes, the company also has numerous longer-term growth strategies, including international expansion, procurement efficiencies and private label, and as such remains the broker’s pick in the small cap auto sector.

Given that it implies 2H21 net profit will be only 1% above 2H19 levels, Citi regards the FY21 net profit guidance of $122m as deeply conservative, especially given the favourable changes in consumer mobility, around 12% more trade stores, 37% more company-owned Autobarn stores and acquisitions.

Due to a stronger-than-expected Trade rollout, and better-than-expected earnings (EBITDA) margins in Specialist Wholesale, Citi has upgraded its FY21 to FY23 net profit estimate by 2% to 7%.

Buy rating is unchanged, target price increases to $9.30 from $8.85.

Target price is $9.30 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $1.42
If BAP meets the Citi target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates BAP as Outperform (1) -

Credit Suisse, pleased with Bapcor's result and believing more will come in the second half, is perplexed with the hard to please share market.

The broker notes 85% of revenue relates to trade/servicing which can positively impact FY21 given the step-up in second-hand vehicles in use along with an undergeared balance sheet that provides the opportunity to supplement the growth profile.

The broker is of the view Bapcor's demand profile is more sustainable than peers.

Due to lower comps, the target falls to $8.50 from $8.60. Outperform rating.

Target price is $8.50 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $0.62
If BAP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates BAP as Outperform (1) -

Bapcor's first-half produced record revenues and earnings, in line with the company's trading update in December. Strong growth was delivered across all segments, the broker notes.

February has proven slightly softer due to snap lockdowns in Victoria and NZ, but management expects some second half moderation anyway, balanced by growth in trade business. 

Bapcor is well placed to accelerate its organic growth and operational performance initiatives, the broker suggests, and has balance sheet capacity to pursue M&A opportunities as they arise. Outperform and $8.75 target retained.

Target price is $8.75 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $0.87
If BAP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates BAP as Overweight (1) -

First half results were slightly ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates. The broker notes strong growth continued in January but February was affected by lockdowns.

Nevertheless, the fundamentals underpinning the vehicle industry remain strong. Consensus net profit forecasts for FY21 of around $122m appear reasonable to the broker and imply second half growth of 18%.

Overweight retained. Target is $9.50. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $9.50 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $1.62
If BAP meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates BAP as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

Bapcor’s first half result was slightly above December guidance and Morgans estimates as strong sales trends continued into January, though recent Melbourne lockdowns have seen momentum slow.

The company is comfortable with FY21 consensus pro-forma profit (NPAT) of $122m.

The dynamics buoying aftermarket demand look set to continue, according to the broker, albeit perhaps at a lower rate of growth versus the first half.

The analyst warns the electric vehicle conversation will continue to get louder which has implications for the aftermarket channel in time.

As the share price is trading within 10% of a new target price, the rating is lowered to Hold from Add, while the target price falls to $8.42 from $8.57 on higher capex assumptions.

Target price is $8.42 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $0.54
If BAP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates BAP as Buy (1) -

Bapcor reported a 54% increase in underlying profit (NPAT) to $70.2m in the first half, which was 1.6% ahead of Ord Minnett's expectations. And an interim dividend of 9.0c was declared.

The broker highlights all business segments reported increased revenue and improved operating earnings during the period, capitalising on increased demand for automotive parts and accessories.

While gross profit margins declined slightly in the first half, an improved cost performance led to a 130 basis point improvement in operating margins to 16.5%.

The Buy rating and target of $9.20 are unchanged.

Target price is $9.20 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $1.32
If BAP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 17% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates BAP as Buy (1) -

First half results were slightly ahead of expectations. UBS believes the business is executing well amid a supportive backdrop. Same-store sales momentum is expected to moderate in the second half and incremental costs will reduce margins.

Nevertheless, the broker lifts net profit estimates for FY21 by 3% and believes there is upside risk if current momentum persists. Buy rating retained. Target is raised to $8.80 from $8.55.

Target price is $8.80 Current Price is $7.88 Difference: $0.92
If BAP meets the UBS target it will return approximately 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $8.92, suggesting upside of 17.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.9

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BLX as Buy (1) -

An initial analysis of Beacon Lighting Group's first-half result shows the net profit at $22.2m was up 8% above Citi estimates. Gross margins rose to 68.5% due to lower discounting while trade club sales grew 51% over the last year.

Citi sees trade sales presenting an opportunity for Beacon to derive significant growth utilising much of its existing fixed asset base. The group has upgraded its roll-out target to 184 from 170, implying Beacon is currently only 63% of the way through its roll-out.

The broker notes like for like sales growth has continued at a higher level going into the second half. Also, the group will likely get better rental deals now on account of being a landlord, suggests Citi and considers Beacon as one of its top picks in small-cap retail.

Citi reiterates a Buy rating with a target of $1.85.

Target price is $1.85 Current Price is $1.82 Difference: $0.03
If BLX meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates BXB as Buy (1) -

Benefiting from strong volumes in consumer staples, with global at-home consumption at increased levels, Brambles Ltd’s 1H21 underlying operating profit (beating consensus) was up 7% to US$465m, while profit after tax lifted 6% to US295.2m.

Despite the slight moderation of growth, Citi expects both volumes and prices to remain at elevated levels, and is optimistic Brambles can sustain its growth outlook, given the result was achieved without any like for like volume growth in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region.

While Brambles delivered a flat US margin outcome in 1H21, Citi expects three announced initiatives (including pricing), to lead to higher margins and returns in the region.

While Citi remains cautious on the future of plastic pallets, it is comfortable Brambles holds enough market power to implement a solution at an appropriate return.

Earnings (EBIT) guidance was upgraded from 3-5% growth to 5-7%.

Buy rating is retained, and the price target has dropped to $12.89 from $12.90.

Target price is $12.89 Current Price is $10.58 Difference: $2.31
If BXB meets the Citi target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $12.10, suggesting upside of 14.9% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

Carsales beat Credit Suisse's estimate for first-half earnings although revenue at $209.5m fell short of the broker's $220.9m forecast. The earnings beat was driven by lower costs.

Management expects solid growth in FY21 operating income with second-half opex expected to be higher due to the absence of $6m in wage subsidies, higher domestic marketing costs and increased investment in key growth initiatives in Korea.

Neutral retained. Target rises to $20.20 from $18.80.

Target price is $20.20 Current Price is $21.75 Difference: minus $1.55 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.79, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CAR as Neutral (3) -

After deducting dealer support, Carsales' earnings slightly beat the broker. Auto market trends remain positive and management has reiterated demand for cars remains strong, hampered only by low inventory levels.

Pre-empting the end of JobKeeper, Carsales will now step up its marketing spend, which leads to earnings downgrades from the broker given the cost of investment. The broker is curious as to why this is needed given the company's elevated penetration.

Korea is going well, and may provide a near term supplement to growth, the broker suggests, but otherwise the broker sees the stock as fully valued. Neutral retained, target rises to $23.00 from $19.30 on a valuation roll-forward.

Target price is $23.00 Current Price is $21.75 Difference: $1.25
If CAR meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.79, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CAR as Overweight (1) -

First half numbers were better than Morgan Stanley expected amid positive momentum. The broker expects top-line growth will accelerate across most divisions in the second half.

The company has guided to moderate revenue growth in FY21. Overweight rating and the target price is $21. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $21.00 Current Price is $21.75 Difference: minus $0.75 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.79, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CAR as Hold (3) -

Morgans considers Carsales.com has produced a quality first half result, with dealer revenue growth of 10% on the pcp, in a reasonably buoyant (but also difficult) environment for the car market.

The broker suspects strong margins seen in the first half do not appear sustainable and costs will increase into the second half.

Good growth in dealer revenues has helped offset a much weaker private listings result explains the analyst, and recent dealer price increases and private listing volumes recoveries to pre covid levels should support the second half.

Management has flagged an intention to become more involved in the wider car buying transaction.

The rating of Hold is maintained. Despite a strong first half, Morgans slightly lowers near-term forecasts and the target price falls to $19.45 from $20.01.

Target price is $19.45 Current Price is $21.75 Difference: minus $2.3 (current price is over target).
If CAR meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $21.79, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CAR as Hold (3) -

First half earnings beat Ord Minnett's estimates. The broker observes dealer volumes were resilient as the used car market remains buoyant. Encar stood out internationally, growing revenue 19% and benefiting from the online migration forced by the pandemic.

The broker found the outlook commentary favourable but the run-up in the share price provides limited upside to valuation. Hold retained. Target rises to $22.58 from $20.26.

Target price is $22.58 Current Price is $21.75 Difference: $0.83
If CAR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.79, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CAR as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) -

UBS believes Carsales.com is on track for EBITDA of $240m in FY21. Encar is expected to contribute around $50m to this number

 In terms of long-term upside UBS considers the main drivers of the domestic business are digital car buying, instant offer, depth and dealer finance. The broker upgrades to Buy from Neutral and raises the target to $24.50 from $19.50.

Target price is $24.50 Current Price is $21.75 Difference: $2.75
If CAR meets the UBS target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $21.79, suggesting downside of -0.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CDA as Outperform (1) -

In a preliminary review of first half results for Codan, Macquarie relays profit (NPAT) of $41.3m was slightly ahead of recent guidance for around $40m. An interim dividend of 10.5 cents was declared.

Revenue and earnings (EBITDA) were also ahead of estimates due to strong metal detector sales and segment contribution.

Outlook commentary included immediate earnings accretion from the Domo Tactical Solutions acquisition and metal detection demand remains strong.

Target of $11.20 and Outperform rating. Estimates are now under review.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $13.01 Difference: minus $1.81 (current price is over target).
If CDA meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CHC as Buy (1) -

As Citi had expected, Charter Hall Group's 1H21 EPS of 27.8c was around 2% ahead of consensus.

During its initial glance, Citi noted that the guidance upgrade appears conservative, especially with FY21 EPS guidance wording as “no less than 55c, excluding any accrued performance fees” (+4% vs prior guidance of 53c, which also excluded performance fees).

Citi also noted that Charter Hall Group has also flagged a potential accrual of FY22 performance fees in FY21, over and above the 55c earnings guidance.

Citi interpreted the announcement as indicating strong performance fees in FY22 which it had been flagging, given its ingoing FY22 estimate was 10% ahead of consensus. The broker sees potential for consensus upgrades near term, and forecast FY21 EPS of 56.8c, +3% above guidance, assuming no performance fee accrual.

The Buy rating is unchanged and target price has increased to $17 from $16.50

Target price is $14.75 Current Price is $12.82 Difference: $1.93
If CHC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.69, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CHC as Neutral (3) -

Charter Hall Group posted a better than expected result, observes Credit Suisse, in that earnings per share fell -43% versus last year but remained above the broker's forecast.

The group has upgraded its FY21 operating earnings to 55c which compares to previous guidance of 53c and the broker's pre-result estimate of 53.6c.

With Charter Hall continuing to attract capital partners, Credit Suisse believes further activity cannot be ruled out in the second half.

Credit Suisse retains its Neutral rating with the target increased to $14.14 from $13.96.

Target price is $14.14 Current Price is $12.82 Difference: $1.32
If CHC meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.69, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates CHC as Outperform (1) -

Charter Hall Group reported operating earnings -5% below the broker. FY21 guidance has been upgraded by 4%, but still short of the broker's forecast. However this is due to a reduction in transaction fees which should normalise going forward, the broker suggests.

Margins in funds management were otherwise the highlight of the result, driven up on cost reductions. Management expects 32% earnings growth in FY22 and given resilient inflows and Charter Hall's track record, the broker has no reason to doubt the forecast.

Outperform retained, target falls to $15.78 from $15.96.

Target price is $15.78 Current Price is $12.82 Difference: $2.96
If CHC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 23% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.69, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CHC as Overweight (1) -

First half earnings per security were in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. Upgraded FY21 guidance of $0.55 appears conservative to the broker as it implies a weaker second half.

As guidance excludes any accrued performance fees this implies FY22 could be a solid year for performance fees. The disclosure indicates seven funds are due for fee reviews.

Morgan Stanley retains an Overweight rating and $16.88 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $16.88 Current Price is $12.82 Difference: $4.06
If CHC meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.69, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CHC as Accumulate (2) -

First half operating earnings were ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts. The broker considers this a high-quality result with strong growth in assets under management and underlying funds management.

There is zero net debt and the business continues to have strong access to capital. Ord Minnett considers the current share price a good buying opportunity and retains an Accumulate rating. Target is raised to $16.50 from $16.20.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $12.82 Difference: $3.68
If CHC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.69, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates CHC as Buy (1) -

First half results were below UBS estimates. Guidance has been slightly increased to $0.55 per security from $0.53.

Despite guidance not including accrual of performance fees, UBS notes Charter Hall's share of performance fee was $7.8m in the half-year, accrued across three funds.

The broker considers the share price reaction overdone and this reflects a buying opportunity. Buy rating and $16.10 target retained.

Target price is $16.10 Current Price is $12.82 Difference: $3.28
If CHC meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $15.69, suggesting upside of 23.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COE as Equal-weight (3) -

Production guidance for FY21 is lower than Morgan Stanley expected, amid ongoing works at Orbost. The broker assumes nameplate capacity by the second half of FY22 but concedes this may be optimistic.

FY21 capital expenditure has been lowered to -$45-50m, which Morgan Stanley considers appropriate given lower free cash flow from ongoing works at Sole and with asset abandonment costs on the horizon.

Equal-weight retained. Target is 38c. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $0.38 Current Price is $0.32 Difference: $0.06
If COE meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $0.38, suggesting upside of 19.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates COL as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) -

Driven by Convenience, and with Supermarkets and Liquor broadly in line, Coles delivered 1H21 earnings (EBIT) of $1,020m and EPS of 42cps, around 2% ahead of Citi. A dividend of 33cps was declared, in line with Citi (32cps).

However, Citi is expecting consensus 2H21 downgrades, following elevated operating costs, the slowing top-line growth and guidance for negative earnings growth.

In light of sales declines, and with Coles having entered a period of elevated investment, which is expected to continue post-covid, plus ongoing competition online, the broker has downgraded earnings by -3% in FY21 and -5% in FY22.

Buy recommendation has been downgraded to Neutral, and price target has reduced to $19.00 from $21.20.

Target price is $19.00 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $1.8
If COL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates COL as Downgrade to Neutral from Outperform (3) -

Coles Group's strong result was overshadowed by debates on its loss of market share, observes Credit Suisse. The broker highlights the need for a higher level of opex so as to support the development of e-commerce.

The broker expects the factors that contributed to the market share loss will continue into the second half and has reduced its forecasts for supermarkets for the second half. 

Credit Suisse downgrades its rating to Neutral from Outperform. Target price falls to $19.04 from $21.04.  

Target price is $19.04 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $1.84
If COL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates COL as Neutral (3) -

Coles has been exceptional over 2020, the broker suggests, maintaining food supply, managing safety and delivering profit growth, and making investments that will benefit for years. A first half earnings increase of 12% year on year was in line with forecasts.

But supermarket sales growth has since begun to slow as the economy normalises. With restaurants and bars back open, at-home consumption is falling (and presumably many have enough toilet paper to last through the year).

Management suggested the industry could see a sales decline in the second half and into FY22. The broker retains Neutral. Target falls to $18.20 from $18.50.

Target price is $18.20 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $1
If COL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates COL as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley believes the reaction in the share price to the first half result was caused by the slowdown in food like-for-like momentum. Nevertheless, the results were in line with the broker's expectations.

The update has signalled to Morgan Stanley that the peak in growth associated with the pandemic has passed. Coles has underperformed in the second quarter and this has potentially continued into the third quarter.

Morgan Stanley lowers earnings forecasts for FY21-23 by -2%. Slightly softer sales growth expectations in food are partially offset by an increase to convenience earnings.

Overweight rating. Target is $20.25. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $20.25 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $3.05
If COL meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates COL as Add (1) -

Coles Group reported first half earnings growth that was comfortably ahead of Morgans forecast, with underlying earnings (EBIT) up 12% and underlying profit (NPAT) rising by 15%.

However, like-for-like sales growth in Supermarkets and Liquor was a bit softer than the broker’s estimates and management noted growth may moderate significantly or even decline in the second half and into FY22.

Morgans maintains an Add rating and the target is raised only slightly to $19.45 from $19.40, as the broker prefers to keep conservative estimates given the uncertain outlook.

Target price is $19.45 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $2.25
If COL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates COL as Hold (3) -

First half net profit was ahead of Ord Minnett's forecasts yet food like-for-like sales growth was below. Coles has signalled a loss of market share stemmed from store location as it has less exposure to local and more skew to Victoria.

The main positives, in the broker's view, were the cost savings from the Smarter Selling program and cash conversion. This was reinvested back into the business which raises questions as how investment will be funded without such support.

Ord Minnett maintains a Hold rating and reduces the target to $18 from $19.

Target price is $18.00 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $0.8
If COL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates COL as Neutral (3) -

First half results were in line with expectations although reaffirmed the need for a more cautious view, UBS asserts. The company has indicated local shopping was key and the broker notes online underperformed.

UBS reduces like-for-like growth estimates and now forecasts 3-4% two-year average growth over the next 12 months.

Nevertheless, the broker remains positive on the grocery sector and expects it will exit the pandemic in a structurally stronger position. Neutral maintained. Target is reduced to $17.50 from $17.90.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $17.20 Difference: $0.3
If COL meets the UBS target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $18.78, suggesting upside of 15.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates CSL as Buy (1) -

Judging from Citi's initial response, CSL delivered an absolute cracker of an interim result, but with guidance that is implying a heavy skew to the first half, keeping questions about FY22 alive.

On the company's own admission, plasma collection volumes were down -20% in December last year from a year ago.

The main risk, suggest the analysts, is that plasma collection could remain hampered for longer. Having said so, there is equally the chance that FY guidance could prove conservative, they add.

Target price is $310.00 Current Price is $281.17 Difference: $28.83
If CSL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $306.81, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CSL as Hold (3) -

Ord Minnett had expected CSL to deliver a solid first half result and it appears, upon first glance, the company has well and truly delivered just that.

This morning the broker is talking about "a very strong result", some 25% ahead of its own forecast, but with the added commentary CSL management has left the full year guidance unchanged meaning the FY21 result will be heavily weighted to the first half, implying risk to FY22.

The key driver underpinning the strong performance was the flu division, Seqirus, where earnings doubled with the division's performance no less than 60% ahead of Ord Minnett's estimate.

Target price is $294.00 Current Price is $281.17 Difference: $12.83
If CSL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $306.81, suggesting upside of 6.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates CTD as Outperform (1) -

Corporate Travel Management's first-half revenue at $74.2m fell -67% over last year and included $13.7m in government assistance. Operating income loss was -$15.7m despite a positive $3m contribution from Australia and New Zealand.

For the entire year, the broker expects more loss with operating loss in the second half pegged at -$4.6m from roughly breakeven previously. From 2022 onwards, Credit Suisse forecasts a material rise in the group's total transaction value to 110% of pre-covid levels.

Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating with a target of $22.

Target price is $22.00 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $3.1
If CTD meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.66, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates CTD as Overweight (1) -

Corporate Travel beat Morgan Stanley's estimates in the first half. There was a positive operating earnings contribution from Australasia and Europe is expected to be positive in terms of EBITDA in FY21.

Losses appear to be moderating although the broker suggests any material issues regarding the pandemic will bring liquidity concerns and cash burn quickly back into focus.

Target is $21.50. Overweight rating reiterated. Industry view is In-Line.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $2.6
If CTD meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.66, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CTD as Add (1) -

In Morgans opinion, Corporate Travel Management posted a commendable first half result (slightly weaker than expectations) in light of travel restrictions and importantly, the balance sheet is strong and by far the strongest in the sector.

There are expectations by the broker that recent significant client wins support an acceleration in a second half revenue recovery, while Asia is to remain challenging and the extent of the US recovery is dependent on the success of the vaccine rollout. 

When activity does fully return, the company will be materially more profitable due to the client wins, the benefit of the T&T acquisition and a structurally lower cost base.

Add rating and the target price is increased to $21.75 from $20.50, after a rise in peer multiples and longer-term forecasts.

Target price is $21.75 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $2.85
If CTD meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 15% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.66, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates CTD as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett found the interim result a distraction from the larger picture unfolding across the travel industry. The success of the UK vaccination and hard lockdown has provided some relief to the outlook.

Vaccines are providing a way forward and appear to be combined with other measures to instigate a ramp up in business travel. While the trajectory remains unclear, Ord Minnett believes Corporate Travel is well-positioned.

FY21 assumptions are downgraded amid a tough outlook while FY22/23 estimates are unchanged. Buy retained. Target is reduced to $21.90 from $22.11.

Target price is $21.90 Current Price is $18.90 Difference: $3
If CTD meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $20.66, suggesting upside of 14.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates CWP as Hold (3) -

Cedar Woods Properties delivered a rise in first half profit (NPAT) of 120% on the pcp, while revenue was up 31% on the pcp as the  development gross margin (gm) improved by 33%. The gm is expected to fall to circa 30% in the second half (changes in product mix).

FY21 NPAT guidance was provided for around $29m, up 39% on the pcp though still materially below peak earnings of $48.6m, explains the broker.

The current pre-sales level secures solid visibility for the earnings recovery to continue into FY22/23, predicts the analyst.

The Hold rating is maintained. The target price is increased to $6.77 from $5.60, as sector conditions remain buoyant across most core markets, supported by low interest rates, stimulus packages and broadly low levels of supply, notes Morgans.

Target price is $6.77 Current Price is $7.18 Difference: minus $0.41 (current price is over target).
If CWP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates DMP as Underperform (5) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises produced the strongest result and outlook in many years, notes Credit Suisse, led by higher delivery food consumption in the lockdown.

But the broker also notes this is temporary and the company would do better by focusing on new store openings. The outlook for the second half is positive with all regions likely to achieve growth above medium-term targets.

Target rises to $71.11 from $63.58. Underperform retained.

Target price is $71.11 Current Price is $105.00 Difference: minus $33.89 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately minus 32% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $92.96, suggesting downside of -16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates DMP as Outperform (1) -

Domino's Pizza posted a strong result in all regions, the broker notes, particularly in Japan and Germany. A good start to the second half underpins a solid 12-18 month outlook, featuring strong sales growth, store rollouts and margin expansion.

The business is going from strength to strength, the broker suggests, and while vaccinations may impact on delivery and carry-out, the broker retains Outperform despite a 35x PE given expectations of growth in excess of double-digits per annum.

Further accretive acquisitions are also possible, if not probable, the broker notes. Target rises to $120.20 from $90.30.

Target price is $120.20 Current Price is $105.00 Difference: $15.2
If DMP meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $92.96, suggesting downside of -16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates DMP as Add (1) -

Domino's Pizza Enterprises' first half profit (NPAT) result was 14% above Morgans forecast with 23% revenue growth converting to 33% NPAT growth. Japan is considered a key driver of the beat although sales were also above expectations in ANZ and Europe. 

Franchise unit economics/profitability was up in all regions (record levels in Germany and France) which is critical for engagement and store opening momentum, explains the broker. Second half openings are expected to accelerate, assisted by a strong balance sheet.

The analyst increases forecasts by 12-20% in FY21-23.  Add rating and target is raised to $119 from $82.96.

Target price is $119.00 Current Price is $105.00 Difference: $14
If DMP meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 13% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $92.96, suggesting downside of -16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates DMP as Neutral (3) -

First half results were ahead of expectations and UBS notes cash flow was solid. Japan drove the improvement. UBS upgrades FY21-23 estimates by 6-11%.

The broker considers Domino's Pizza a structural beneficiary of the pandemic via the accelerating shift to online ordering and consolidation amid the potential closure of restaurants. Neutral retained. Target rises to $103 from $72.

Target price is $103.00 Current Price is $105.00 Difference: minus $2 (current price is over target).
If DMP meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $92.96, suggesting downside of -16.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EBO as Neutral (3) -

Highlighting the operational leverage of the business in times of elevated growth, Ebos Group 1H21 revenue, earnings (EBIT of $148m), net profit and EPS grew 6.3%, 11.5%, 14.1%, and 12.8% respectively.

While corporate costs increased by $4m (up 50% yoy), Covid had a positive impact of around 2% on earnings (EBIT), implying that excluding Covid, group earnings growth would have been around 9.5%.

Citi’s FY21-23 EPS estimates changed by around 1%.

Increasing to $27.50 from $27.00, the target price excludes any contribution from potential future M&A, and implies that Ebos should trade at a FY22 PE of circa 22x, around 10% above its 5 years average.

Citi questions whether the elevated level of growth witnessed in the Healthcare segment is sustainable. The broker also expects very strong growth in Animal Care to weaken and is forecasting 2H21 revenue growth (for this division) of 15%, and 6% growth in FY22.

Neutral rating remains unchanged.

Target price is $27.50 Current Price is $27.57 Difference: minus $0.07 (current price is over target).
If EBO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $28.20, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EBO as Add (1) -

The Ebos Group's first half result exceeded Morgans expectations as revenue grew by 6.3% to $4.7bn and underlying earnings (EBITDA) were up 9.3% to $184.1m. All divisions improved except for consumer products.

Two acquisitions were made during the period totaling $23m and management noted the acquisition pipeline remains active with a focus on medical devices.

The analyst increases forecast profit (NPAT) for FY21-23 by 3.2%, 6.1% and 9.2%, respectively, and lifts the target to $28.90 from $25.94. The Add rating is maintained.

Target price is $28.90 Current Price is $27.57 Difference: $1.33
If EBO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $28.20, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EBO as Buy (1) -

First half results were in line with expectations. Animal care was the standout division, with earnings growth of 26%. At face value, UBS acknowledges net profit margin of 2% is low albeit reflective of the core distribution businesses within the group.

The only weakness UBS notes is in the consumer segment, amid previously-flagged issues. The broker makes few changes to forecasts and retains a Buy rating and NZ$32.70 target.

Current Price is $27.57. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is $28.20, suggesting upside of 4.4% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.6

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EML as Outperform (1) -

EML Payments' result was underpinned by better than expected revenues and strong cash conversion, the broker notes, partially offset by higher costs. The result met the top end of the guidance range.

The broker sees the top end of full year guidance as merely the starting point. EML needs only to deliver the same first quarter result to reach the midpoint.

After only nine months, PFS is proving to be a great acquisition, the broker suggests, driving diversification away from malls. The only risk all up is further lockdowns. Outperform retained, target rises to $5.70 from $4.20.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $0.8
If EML meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EML as Buy (1) -

The first half update revealed the gift card business in shopping centres was less affected by the pandemic than UBS had anticipated and the recovery outlook is better.

Underlying organic growth has also impressed the broker, despite softer multi-currency contributions.

UBS is confident of further upgrade and re-rating potential, as the market becomes increasingly comfortable about the growth profile. Buy rating retained. Target rises to $5.70 from $5.00.

Target price is $5.70 Current Price is $4.90 Difference: $0.8
If EML meets the UBS target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates EVN as Neutral (3) -

The first half result was in-line with Citi's estimates with revenue of $982m and earnings (EBITDA) of $515m. It's expected the company will reach net cash in the first half. An interim fully franked dividend of 7cents was considered in-line.

Though only bringing the broker in-line with consensus, forecast ounces for Red Lake are lifted in FY22/23, assuming stockpiles are fed through Red Lake mill.

Rating of Neutral is maintained and the target price decreased to $4.80 from $4.90.

Target price is $4.80 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.59
If EVN meets the Citi target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates EVN as Outperform (1) -

Evolution Mining's first-half underlying net profit at $234m is ahead of Credit Suisse's expected $214m. Also, cash flows were strong at a 6.8% yield. FY21 production and cost budgets remain unchanged.

Gold reserves were up 49% to 9.09moz thanks to its Cowal operations but Red Lake operations disappointed the broker. 

Credit Suisse maintains its Outperform rating with the target falling to $5.10 from $5.50.

Target price is $5.10 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.89
If EVN meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates EVN as Outperform (1) -

Evolution Mining's first half earnings came in 9% of the broker. Strong earnings carried through to a beat on cash flow. The 7c dividend was below both the broker's forecast and the company's 50% payout policy, but still the highest payout in the sector.

The broker forecasts a 5c final but notes this is based on a much lower gold price forecast.

A substantial reserve reported at Red Lake underpins Evolution’s aspirations at the mine, the broker suggests, with first ore from the Upper Campbell zone expected in the March quarter FY22. Outperform and $5.40 target retained.

Target price is $5.40 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $1.19
If EVN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates EVN as Equal-weight (3) -

Lower costs led to net profit being better than Morgan Stanley expected in the first half.

As anticipated, Red Lake has produced a sizeable maiden reserve. The broker expects the approval of an underground decline will assist the site reaching 300-500,000ozpa.

Morgan Stanley retains its Equal-weight rating. Target is $4.60. Industry view: Attractive.

Target price is $4.60 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.39
If EVN meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates EVN as Hold (3) -

Evolution Mining released first half results for FY21, with a record profit (NPAT) and declared a 7 cent fully franked dividend.

Guidance for FY21 was restated and the company is on track to meet mid-point production (700koz) and come out below guidance on costs. 

Morgans highlights a substantial increase in group ore reserves to 9.9moz, with Red Lake’s first JORC ore reserve of 2.9moz from an 11moz resource.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target price is decreased to $4.40 from $4.85.

Target price is $4.40 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: $0.19
If EVN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates EVN as Sell (5) -

Results were in line with expectations while the main news of importance centred on Red Lake, with a commitment to a decline to access high-grade ore along with a maiden reserve.

As the grade is lower than expected, UBS suspects a new mill will be required to meet management's aspirations. The broker downgrades the valuation of Red Lake to reflect lower grades.

Sell rating is maintained based on valuation and the target is lowered to $3.90 from $4.20.

Target price is $3.90 Current Price is $4.21 Difference: minus $0.31 (current price is over target).
If EVN meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $4.66, suggesting upside of 10.1% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.1

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FBU as Neutral (3) -

Fletcher Building's result came in slightly ahead of the broker, and maiden full year guidance is 4% ahead of forecast. The broker suggests the market is pricing in a more flattish earnings trajectory than guidance predicts.

With the 2-3 year cost-out program now winding down, the broker awaits news of the company's growth plans in the May briefing. The resumption of the dividend is nonetheless a sign of confidence. Neutral retained, target rises to NZ$6.40 from NZ$6.20.

Current Price is $6.05. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates FBU as Overweight (1) -

First half results were ahead of Morgan Stanley's expectations. There is further evidence Fletcher Building has made meaningful changes to its cost base and the broker expects this will deliver sustained benefits.

Management expects "broadly stable" second half activity. The broker retains an Overweight rating and NZ$7 target. Industry view is In-Line.

Current Price is $6.05. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates FBU as Neutral (3) -

First half underlying EBIT was ahead of UBS estimates and NZ building products outperformed as did concrete. This was partially countered by a miss in residential and development along with Australia.

At current levels, UBS struggles to envisage immediate upside, although the scope for further momentum into FY22 reflects higher construction activity across Australasia.

Neutral rating is under review with the target rising to NZ$6.55 from NZ$6.00.

Current Price is $6.05. Target price not assessed.

Current consensus price target is N/A

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in NZD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates FMG as Outperform (1) -

The first assessment of Fortescue Metals Group's first-half result shows earnings to be in-line with Macquarie's forecasts. An interim dividend of $1.47 was 7% ahead of the broker's forecast. Capex on the iron bridge project is expected to be circa -US$3bn, in line with expectations.

The group's first-half earnings result was solid, assesses the broker, with Fortescue's earnings upgrade momentum strong and indicating higher earnings for FY21-22.

Outperform rating and $26.50 target retained.

Target price is $26.50 Current Price is $24.41 Difference: $2.09
If FMG meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.42, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates FMG as Hold (3) -

Fortescue Metals Group reports on February 18. Morgans hopes for further clarification on culture and communication issues at the Iron Bridge magnetite project resulting in key management exiting.

In the meantime, the analyst assumes a -20% capex blowout to the US$2.6bn budget based on a combination of a higher Australian dollar and inflation.

The Hold rating is maintained and the target price is decreased to $21.50 from $21.60.

Target price is $21.50 Current Price is $24.41 Difference: minus $2.91 (current price is over target).
If FMG meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 12% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $23.42, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates FMG as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett notes in an initial analysis of Fortescue Metals Group's interim report, the key unknown -the dividend- came in at $1.47 and was ahead of its $1.26 estimate.

The broker also highlights the iron bridge project budget has been increased to $3bn from $2.6bn with the first production expected in the second half of 2022. 

Fortescue announced 10% of net profit will be used to fund renewable energy growth through Fortescue Future Industries. Ord Minnett is pleased with the announcement given the low commitment which won’t compromise the dividend in the near term. 

Buy rating. Target is unchanged at $29.

Target price is $29.00 Current Price is $24.41 Difference: $4.59
If FMG meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 19% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $23.42, suggesting downside of -6.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates GOR as Buy (1) -

Ord Minnett provides feedback on a strategy presentation by Gold Road Resources detailing a three-year mine outlook and the company's growth strategy. 

Despite management flagging 35% growth in production the outlook was marginally below Ord Minnett's expectations.

The company guided for 130-150,000oz of gold at costs of $1,225-1,350/oz (Gold road Resources 50%). With volume rather than grade the story in 2021, the analyst reduces the 2021 production forecast by -6% and increases costs by -9%.

The broker sees an opportunity for a reserve update in the second half of 2021, which will likely see life-extension as more resource is converted to reserve.

Buy rating retained with the target falling to $2.10 from $2.20.

Target price is $2.10 Current Price is $1.18 Difference: $0.92
If GOR meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 78% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates HDN as Outperform (1) -

Homeco Daily Needs' maiden funds from operations result smashed the prospectus forecast, and full year guidance has been upgraded to be 9% above prospectus, albeit in line with the broker. The upgrade was driven by subsequent acquisitions.

Cash collection of 99% was achieved over November through January and with only 4% of leases expiring by the end of FY22, The REIT’s cashflows should be resilient, the broker suggests. Management also provided a positive development update.

Target trimmed to $1.40 from $1.42 for reasons unstated, but Outperform retained.

Target price is $1.40 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.04
If HDN meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates HDN as Add (1) -

The maiden first half result for HomeCo Daily Needs REIT delivered funds from operations (FFO) of  $3.1m which was ahead of the $2.5m prospectus forecast due to the early settlement of IPO properties and some income from acquisitions.

FY21 FFO guidance is tracking over 9% above prospectus forecasts at $20.5m. DPS guidance has been reiterated with a maiden distribution of 2.4 cents declared.

Management continues to target assets under management (AUM) of $3bn (currently $978m) over the medium term via organic growth, development projects and acquisitions.

The Add rating is maintained and the target price is increased to $1.45 from $1.44, after small upgrades by Morgans to FY21 FFO in-line with guidance. These also incorporate further growth regarding the brownfield pipeline, which will contribute income fully from FY23.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.36 Difference: $0.09
If HDN meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IGO as Neutral (3) -

Citi maintains its view that IGO is a unique way to play the electric vehicles theme, and has upgraded forecasts across the metals suite, with copper up 17% to US$4.15/lb, Nickel up 16% to US$7.88/lb, and around 8% upgrades to lithium in FY22.

As a result, Citi is forecasting earnings upgrades of 9%, 18%, and 10% (to EBITDA) in FY21, FY22, and FY23 respectively.

IGO has flagged a strategic review of its stake in the Tropicana gold mine which could include a demerger, or sale with an update due in March quarter 21.

IGO plans to sustain cash flow for multiple decades and move towards a battery metals focused company by acquiring a US$1.4bn stake in a lithium mine and processing plant in WA, with deal completion expected in the June 21 quarter, subject to approvals.

The broker retains Neutral and increases the target price to $7.10 from $6.80.

Target price is $7.10 Current Price is $6.95 Difference: $0.15
If IGO meets the Citi target it will return approximately 2% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $6.15, suggesting downside of -10.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IRE as Accumulate (2) -

First impressions of Iress's FY20 result show revenue was in-line with Ord Minnett's forecast and rose 7% over last year. Segment profit rose 1% and was ahead of guidance as well as broker forecast. A final dividend of 30c was in-line with expectations.

The company expects to deliver a segment profit of $164-$168m and is targeting a return on invested capital of 9-10%. Growth in Australian financial advice and super is expected to be in low single digits.

Accumulate rating with a target of $11.20.

Target price is $11.20 Current Price is $9.80 Difference: $1.4
If IRE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.30, suggesting upside of 10.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates IVC as Neutral (3) -

Ahead of a full year result due on Wednesday, 24 February, InvoCare pre-released adjusted Operating earnings (EBITDA) of
$107-$112m, largely in-line with Citi's estimate. The reported net loss after tax attributable to shareholders is expected between -$7-12m.

The broker expects investors’ focus to be on new management and strategy, in particular regarding the network and brand optimisation program's (NBO) $200m capex program.

Neutral rated and target of $11.50.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.83 Difference: $0.67
If IVC meets the Citi target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.17, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates IVC as Hold (3) -

In a guidance update prior to the 2020 result on Wednesday, 24 February, InvoCare now expects operating earnings (EBITDA) of
$105–110m. Excluding significant items the underlying earnings are expected to be $107–112m.

Given this update, Citi now expects more focus on results day on strategy and the outlook for the business.

The rating remains Hold with a $11.50 price target.

Target price is $11.50 Current Price is $10.83 Difference: $0.67
If IVC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $11.17, suggesting upside of 3.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY20:

Forecast for FY21:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MCP as Buy (1) -

First half profit was within guidance. Ord Minnett notes, excluding Dr LeWinn's, the portfolio produced a strong sales outcome.

Guidance for the second half is materially below the first half. This is predicated on an uncertain outlook for key sales events in China combined with existing system inventory.

Ord Minnett suspects McPherson's may attract third-party interest at current levels. A Buy rating is retained, given the valuation discount to peers and the high yield. Target is reduced to $1.45 from $1.79.

Target price is $1.45 Current Price is $1.21 Difference: $0.24
If MCP meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 20% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates MOE as Buy (1) -

2020 operating earnings were ahead of Ord Minnett's estimates. Assets under management now stand at $5.4bn, with growth from an accelerating international inflow. The broker expects this to continue.

Furthermore, this should be augmented by the launch of retail credit products. Ord Minnett assesses a considerable investment platform has been established with maturing distribution capability. Buy retained. Target rise to $5.53 from $5.17.

Target price is $5.53 Current Price is $4.75 Difference: $0.78
If MOE meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NEC as Outperform (1) -

After assessing the results of rival Seven West Media ((SWM)) and majority-owned Domain Group ((DGH)), the broker has significantly upgraded its earnings forecasts for Nine Entertainment ahead of next week's result release.

The recovery in free-to-air means revenues are almost back to pre-covid levels, and Nine will retain market share in the near term thanks to the Australian Open, the broker suggests.

The stock offers exposure to a cyclical recovery in both ad markets and the residential market through Domain, the broker notes. Early stage growth businesses (Stan Sport, Drive) remain a largely free option, and valuation is attractive. Outperform retained.

Target rises to $3.80 from $2.90.

Target price is $3.80 Current Price is $2.79 Difference: $1.01
If NEC meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 36% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.00, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.8

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

After a 'solid' first half result, Citi expects earnings (EBITDA) margins to decline in the second half as Netwealth Group continues to
invest in the platform and revenue growth slows.

The result highlighted to the broker the various revenue levers (trading, foreign exchange, manager fees etc.) and operating leverage within the business.

Citi calculates it has been a strong start to the year given January is typically a slow month and continues to see the FY21 guidance of $8.5bn to $9.0bn of net flows as conservative.

Neutral rating. Target rises to $16.95 from $16.10. 

Target price is $16.95 Current Price is $16.28 Difference: $0.67
If NWL meets the Citi target it will return approximately 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.68, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group's first-half net profit was up 35%, 10% above Credit Suisse's estimates. The beat was largely driven by revenues and supported by a cost beat.

The broker expects revenue margin to contract by about -5bps in the second half due to fee cuts and lower cash admin fees. Beyond the second half, Credit Suisse expects the pace of this contraction to slow down with the easing of front book pricing pressures.

With the investment platform attracting significant flows and growing market share, expected to continue ahead, the broker cannot fault Netwealth's strategy or execution.

Even so, with the stock trading roughly in line with the broker's valuation,  Credit Suisse retains its Neutral rating with the target rising to $17.50 from $17.

Target price is $17.50 Current Price is $16.28 Difference: $1.22
If NWL meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.68, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates NWL as Neutral (3) -

Netwealth Group's result beat at the headline, but that's where the good news ends. Administration fee guidance was a source of disappointment.

The broker suspects the market underestimated the ultimate impact of the final cohort of clients transitioning to lower pricing announced this time last year. Admin fee income is not expected to increase significantly in the second half, and strong margins should normalise.

While the broker expects margin pressure to ease in FY22, the big risk is financier ANZ Bank negotiates a lower cash deposit rate from the current 95bps, the broker warns. Neutral retained on "lofty" valuation. Target falls to $17.75 from $18.25.

Target price is $17.75 Current Price is $16.28 Difference: $1.47
If NWL meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $16.68, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates NWL as Hold (3) -

Netwealth Group reported first half profit (NPAT) up 34.3% on the pcp and ahead of Morgans expectations.

Outlook statements highlighted second half revenue headwinds from the impact of new pricing and lower margin on cash though the broker sees these impacts as largely transitory.

Management stated the pipeline of new business is strong and in January guided to funds under administration (FUA) net inflow of around $8.5-9bn.

Despite subdued second half revenue growth expectations, the analyst believes the company’s opportunity to deliver consistently strong long-term earnings growth remains in-tact.

Target is raised to $16.20 from $16.15..

Target price is $16.20 Current Price is $16.28 Difference: minus $0.08 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.68, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates NWL as Upgrade to Hold from Sell (3) -

First half results were ahead of expectations, supported by operating margin expansion. Nevertheless, the company has guided to ongoing margin pressure. Netwealth is guiding to $8.5-9bn in net flows, implying $4-4.5bn in the second half.

Ord Minnett balances its view on the revenue margin headwinds with the substantial market opportunity. Following a change in analyst, the broker upgrades to Hold from Sell. Target is raised to $15.00 from $9.99.

Target price is $15.00 Current Price is $16.28 Difference: minus $1.28 (current price is over target).
If NWL meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $16.68, suggesting upside of 7.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates ORA as Neutral (3) -

Orora Limited reported 1H21 sales of $1.81bn, down -1% and earnings (EBIT) of $140m, up 5%.

Within its initial take, Citi noted that the result was characterised by good revenue growth in Australia and good margin expansion in North America, with the buyback helping earnings per share to rise 20%.

Orora Packaging Solutions (OPS) contributed largely to USD revenue growth of 2% and EBIT growth of 13%, while Capex more than halved in 1H21 to $21m.

While Australian earnings (EBIT) rose 4%, there are concerns for wine bottle earnings, with the company mindful of the impact from smaller 2020 vintage, and reduced China demand.

The company indicated earnings (EBIT) would be up in FY21 on FY20, and consensus is at 4% earnings (EBIT) growth, the broker reports.

Citi believes the swing factor will be North America where fixed cost leverage could result in upside risk, given the company is lapping low sales from 2H20.

Target price is $2.50 Current Price is $2.73 Difference: minus $0.23 (current price is over target).
If ORA meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.73, suggesting downside of -5.5% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates ORG as Buy (1) -

Despite the pressures from lower electricity and oil prices, UBS regards the 14% beat to its expected 1H20 $1,009m underlying earnings (EBITDA) as positive for Origin Energy, with free cash flow generation ($655m over the half), down only -4% on the previous corresponding period.

Origin Energy delivered underlying net profit (NPAT) of $224m, well ahead of UBS ($151m) and consensus ($155m) estimates.

The company reaffirmed its FY21 Energy Markets earnings (EBITDA) guidance of $1,000-1,140m (UBS $1,033m).

In its initial snapshot of the result, UBS noted a higher interim dividend (12.5cps unfranked) than the market expected (9cps) and better than expected underlying EBITDA ($1,154) characterised a positive 1H21 result.

Buy rating and price target of $5.75 remain unchanged.

Target price is $5.75 Current Price is $4.60 Difference: $1.15
If ORG meets the UBS target it will return approximately 25% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $5.41, suggesting upside of 20.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates PGH as Outperform (1) -

Post delivering a "solid" first half result, Credit Suisse upgrades earnings per share for Pact Group Holdings by 5-18% over the forecast period.

Packaging volumes were stable, observes the broker, a positive sign. Now expanding capacity for recycled resin, Credit Suisse believes the group should be able to win market share as end-users of packaging drive toward sustainability goals.

Recent contract wins in materials handling drove volume with most of the step-up expected to be delivered in FY21. 

Outperform retained with a target of $2.95.

Target price is $2.95 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.15
If PGH meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PGH as Neutral (3) -

Pact Group's underlying profit beat the broker by 31%, driven by higher margins and lower interest cost. It was a pleasing result compositionally, the broker suggests, featuring stabilisation in Packaging & Sustainability and growth in Materials Handling.

Management is expecting lower covid-driven hygiene demand in the second half, and the base business is also skewed to the first half. The sale of Contract Manufacturing is ongoing, with no new news.

The company is making good progress on its turnaround strategy, the broker believes. Neutral retained, target rises to $3.00 from $2.70.

Target price is $3.00 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.2
If PGH meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 7% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PGH as Underweight (5) -

First half results beat Morgan Stanley's estimates because of strong margin growth. Still, the broker anticipates a reversal of one-offs will weigh on short-term earnings and retains an Underweight rating.

FY21 earnings (EBIT) estimates are upgraded by 5% because of the improved outlook for margins and revenue growth in materials handling & pooling.

Pact Group has reiterated a commitment to the "circular economy" and announced potential investments of -$13m in plastics recycling facilities in Western Australia and Victoria. Target is raised to $2.70 from $2.60. Industry view: In-Line.

Target price is $2.70 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: minus $0.1 (current price is over target).
If PGH meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates PGH as Upgrade to Buy from Hold (1) -

First half results beat Ord Minnett's forecasts. The main concern over the years has been poor organic earnings, the broker points out, as these appear to have eroded when excluding M&A.

The trend appears to have come to an end and the broker estimates EBIT from the core business rose 14.5%. Forecasts are upgraded and modest earnings growth is assumed.

Ord Minnett upgrades to Buy from Hold and raises the target to $3.20 from $2.70. The broker also believes the strategy to lead plastics recycling in Australasia is an exciting opportunity.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.80 Difference: $0.4
If PGH meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 14% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $2.87, suggesting downside of -2.6% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.2

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates PME as Downgrade to Hold from Add (3) -

In the wake of first half results, Morgans increases the price target for Pro Medicus to $41.30 from $35.02 and due to the recent strength in the share price moves to a Hold recommendation from Add.

The broker rates the result as strong given volumes are starting to recover from covid issues and new client contracts come online. The five year contracted revenue base has risen to $305m from $195m in the pcp.

No guidance was provided though expectations for a strong second half and beyond have been set, believes the analyst.

Morgans hesitates to roll the recent run-rate of winning contracts through long-term forecasts and instead opts to model these as one-off extraordinary contracts in FY21.

Target price is $41.30 Current Price is $44.69 Difference: minus $3.39 (current price is over target).
If PME meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 8% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates PME as Neutral (3) -

First half results were in line with expectations. UBS homes in on the accelerating momentum in contracts, with $155m awarded in FY21 to date compared with $37m in FY20.

Pro Medicus has highlighted it has won all six of the last major awards in North America. UBS believes this validates the company's market-leading product and considers it significantly ahead of peers with its native cloud capability. Neutral retained. Target rises to $46 from $32.

Target price is $46.00 Current Price is $44.69 Difference: $1.31
If PME meets the UBS target it will return approximately 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates PPT as Neutral (3) -

Perpetual reported its first-half result. In its initial assessment, Macquarie notes operating income was circa 3m ahead of forecast, but was circa -$6m below consensus.

Perpetual expects its expenses to be 1-3% higher versus last year with Trillium and Barrow Hanley costs expected to add 28-30% to the cost base.  

Perpetual Asset Management's operating income at $35.9m beat the broker's expected $34.4m. On the flip side, Macquarie notes revenues were impacted by outflows and lower margins partially offset by market movements and better performance fees.

Neutral rating with a target of $32.50.

Target price is $32.50 Current Price is $33.48 Difference: minus $0.98 (current price is over target).
If PPT meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately minus 3% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $35.76, suggesting upside of 13.2% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates PSQ as Overweight (1) -

Morgan Stanley finds a more compelling risk/reward outlook as Pacific Smiles executes on a faster roll-out.

Guidance presents an undemanding second half hurdle although for the broker the real attraction is the longevity of the growth cycle.

First half results were well ahead of estimates. Management intends to accelerate the roll-out to potentially 20-25 centres per annum. Morgan Stanley is seeking a better understanding of start-up losses and how much the unit economics have improved.

This could mean higher sales but also margin compression. Overweight retained. Target rises to $3.20 from $3.00. Industry view: In-line.

Target price is $3.20 Current Price is $2.72 Difference: $0.48
If PSQ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 18% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RDC as Buy (1) -

Redcape Hotel Group has reported first half operating earnings (EBITDA) of $40.9m. This indicated to Ord Minnett strength in gaming and bottle shop sales, which helped offset on-premise food and beveridge (fundamentally impacted covid restrictions).

The result included a 7.5% increase in revenue on the pcp, a 4.4% beat on the broker's estimate due to stronger trading conditions
throughout the half. DPS was in-line with expectations at 3.7c for the half year.

Ord Minnett reiterates a Buy rating and raises the target to $1.22 from $1.08. Despite performance remaining strong, Ord Minnett moderates expectations for the second half and beyond.

Target price is $1.22 Current Price is $0.95 Difference: $0.27
If RDC meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 28% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RDY as Outperform (1) -

ReadyTech's earnings beat the broker by 5%, featuring strong growoth in both Education and Workforce Solutions. While revenues grew 13% year on year, earnings were flat due to further investment in marketing and sales roles. Full year guidance is unchanged.

With a "decent" growth outlook, ReadyTech's 19x forward PE is undemanding, the broker suggests, and the stock should re-rate as it continues to execute against its growth strategy, including winning larger value clients. Outperform retained.

Target falls to $2.75 from $2.85 on enterprise valuation.

Target price is $2.75 Current Price is $1.90 Difference: $0.85
If RDY meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 45% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 1.0

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates RIO as Buy (1) -

Rio Tinto's operating income at US$23.9bn was in line with consensus while net profit was 6% ahead of consensus. Net earnings were $9.8bn.

Production guidance for 2021 remains intact with Pilbara iron ore shipments expected to be 325-340mt. Cost guidance for Pilbara is higher than Citi expected.

Citi expects the market for iron ore concentrate/pellets to be strong in 2021 and is looking for a recovery in titanium dioxide pigments. Aluminium demand is also expected to rebound in 2021.

Buy rating retained. Target price is $127.

Target price is $127.00 Current Price is $127.47 Difference: minus $0.47 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Citi target it will return approximately minus 0% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.86, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates RIO as Outperform (1) -

The Rio Tinto result story has played out very similarly to its major rival, but for Rio's earnings being in line with forecast and its rival falling a little short. The beat came in cash flow, allowing a big special dividend, adding up to a 72% payout ratio.

Going forward, the rising currency is increasing costs, the broker notes, and capex is expected to remain elevated through to 2023. However ongoing strength in iron ore prices more than offsets.

Were the broker to input spot iron ore prices into its model, earnings forecast would rise by 95% in FY21 and 180% in 2022. Outperform retained, target rises to $135 from $125.

Target price is $135.00 Current Price is $127.47 Difference: $7.53
If RIO meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 6% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.86, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates RIO as Equal-weight (3) -

2020 results and the final dividend were in line with Morgan Stanley's estimates. The broker notes iron ore costs have been guided higher and could have an impact on operating earnings in 2021.

Capital expenditure guidance has increased for 2021 and 2022 to US$7.5bn, amid a higher Australian dollar as 50% of costs are attributed to the currency.

The company has confirmed aspirations to reach net zero emissions from shipping of product by 2050.

Equal-weight rating retained, alongside an Attractive industry view. Target price is $114.

Target price is $114.00 Current Price is $127.47 Difference: minus $13.47 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.86, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgans rates RIO as Hold (3) -

Morgans assesses the Rio Tinto FY20 result as solid with underlying earnings (EBITDA) of US$23,902m slightly under the broker's estimate, while underlying profit (NPAT) of US$12,448m was ahead. 

With a strong balance sheet and an undemanding capex profile, the company is paying out all of its free cash flow generated in 2020 in ordinary and special dividends, explains the broker.

The analyst warns of a difficult outlook for the iron ore business, with risks to 2021 reserve replacement from the new Heritage Act, and dynamics around Simandou. The broker, however, is impressed with measures the company is taking to improve its ESG profile.

Hold and target is increased to $114 from $113.

Target price is $114.00 Current Price is $127.47 Difference: minus $13.47 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the Morgans target it will return approximately minus 11% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.86, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Ord Minnett rates RIO as Buy (1) -

2020 earnings were in line with Ord Minnett's forecasts. The dividend represents a 72% pay-out ratio and the broker expects consensus upgrades will be forthcoming.

The balance sheet is completely ungeared and project expenditure remains modest which means the returns will feature throughout the next couple of years. Ord Minnett retains a Buy rating and raises the target to $154 from $153.

Target price is $154.00 Current Price is $127.47 Difference: $26.53
If RIO meets the Ord Minnett target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $127.86, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

UBS rates RIO as Neutral (3) -

Rio Tinto finished 2020 strongly, with underlying operating earnings (EBITDA) ahead of expectations. Again, a big miner has caught the market by surprise with its dividend, which at $4.02 represents a 72% full-new pay-out ratio.

As with BHP Group ((BHP)) Rio Tinto paid out almost 100% of free cash flow and reiterated its dividend policy.

UBS notes there are a number of challenges across the business in 2021, including ongoing implications from the Juukan Gorge incident and mixed progress on Oyu Tolgoi. There are also cost pressures in Western Australia. Neutral retained. Target rises to $126 from $115.

Target price is $126.00 Current Price is $127.47 Difference: minus $1.47 (current price is over target).
If RIO meets the UBS target it will return approximately minus 1% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

Current consensus price target is $127.86, suggesting upside of 0.3% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in December.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

This company reports in USD. All estimates have been converted into AUD by FNArena at present FX values.

Market Sentiment: 0.4

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Credit Suisse rates SBM as Outperform (1) -

St Barbara's net profit beat Credit Suisse's forecast of $32m with a dividend of 4c. The outlook remains unchanged at 370-410koz of production. The broker expects 385koz, noting St Barbara is one of the few gold companies with growth opportunities across its portfolio.

Credit Suisse retains its Outperform rating with a target of $3.30.

Target price is $3.30 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $1.11
If SBM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 44.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SBM as Neutral (3) -

While St Barbara's result beat at the headline, the underlying result was weaker net of forex gains, the broker notes. The miner nevertheless retained its 4c dividend, representing a 100% payout of better than expected cash flow.

St Barbara still needs to complete a number of significant milestones to ensure its medium-term production profile, but in the broker's
view the first quarter should have represented the low point and production metrics should improve from here.

Neutral retained, target falls to $2.30 from $2.40.

Target price is $2.30 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $0.11
If SBM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 44.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Morgan Stanley rates SBM as Overweight (1) -

Net profit in the first half was ahead of Morgan Stanley's estimates while the dividend was in line.

There was no announcement regarding the Simberi sulphide feasibility study but this is expected shortly, along with an update on the mining plan at Gwalia.

Morgan Stanley anticipates the latter could include details regarding shallower mining and potential satellite pit mining.

Overweight rating with a target of $3.50. Industry view is Attractive.

Target price is $3.50 Current Price is $2.19 Difference: $1.31
If SBM meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately 60% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $3.04, suggesting upside of 44.8% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.5

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Macquarie rates SGM as Outperform (1) -

Sims' result materially beat the broker's forecast and the 12c dividend came as a surprise. Better than expected sales volumes, combined with cost-out benefits, drove stronger operating leverage.

The broker believes improving momentum in the global economy, and global steel market particularly, should continue to support the trading environment, backed by global infrastructure stimulus. Cost reduction has also meaningfully lifted operating leverage.

Outperform retained, target rises to $16.50 from $16.40.

Target price is $16.50 Current Price is $13.63 Difference: $2.87
If SGM meets the Macquarie target it will return approximately 21% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).

Current consensus price target is $14.76, suggesting upside of 9.0% (ex-dividends)

The company's fiscal year ends in June.

Forecast for FY21:

Forecast for FY22:

Market Sentiment: 0.3

All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources

Citi rates SGR as Neutral (3) -

Citi retains its Neutral rating with a target price of $4.

In an early response, Citi notes Star Entertainment Group's first-half operating income was 8% ahead of the broker's forecast driven by better than expected cost control. Also, strong cost management coupled with JobKeeper benefits led to better margins.

Operating cash flow was also well ahead of Citi's estimates driven by lower gaming taxes and JobKeeper. 

Going into the second half, Citi notes positive domestic demand conditions and operating costs continued to be well-managed in January.

Regulation and corporate activity remain Citi's focus across the casino sector, as operating restrictions make near term earnings less representative of the outlook.

Target price is $4.00 Current Price is $3.68 Difference: $0.32
If SGR meets the Citi target it will return approximately 9% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).